Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 14 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.02    99.80     2.86   101.47     3.51    56.89   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.55    20.16    -5.04    80.20     3.53    54.15     0.00    98.80    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.38    66.54    15.02    68.34     3.99    34.37     0.00     1.13    78.07    93.23    99.53     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.16    39.09    -3.74    63.11     3.84    16.25     0.00     0.06    12.28    53.47    91.08     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.77    31.17     0.79    61.25     3.89    19.93     0.00     0.00     7.42    34.83    83.58     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.27    66.74     7.71    56.33     4.02     8.47     0.00     0.00     0.56     5.13    33.73     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.32    83.60     9.31    55.25     4.16     3.14     0.00     0.00     0.60     3.91    23.61     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.56    13.22    -7.87    56.90     4.03    12.33     0.00     0.00     0.83     7.10    42.91     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.02    25.89    -5.71    54.78     4.13     5.35     0.00     0.00     0.27     2.22    21.41     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.64    77.26     3.93    49.32     3.71    -9.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.22     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.39    62.85    -1.07    48.92     3.78    -9.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.25     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.61    47.43    -4.40    49.27     3.90    -9.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.59     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.65    64.61    -5.06    45.11     3.70   -19.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.02R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.08    66.69    -1.23    43.68     3.79   -21.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.31R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.76    36.06     4.57    37.75     3.65   -13.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.92R    1.73  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.23    20.84    -2.75    38.60     3.91   -16.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.62R    1.96  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.44    28.17    -3.10    36.83     3.73   -21.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.34R    4.23  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.63    27.46    -3.54    35.93     3.68   -24.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.88R    5.08  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.44    43.43     0.76    33.95     3.88   -30.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.26R   16.57  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.07    29.41    -1.44    29.50     3.64   -34.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.60R   70.40  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.71    79.91     7.68    86.88     3.96    31.32    51.29    93.85   100.00    95.77P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.55    64.37     3.14    86.26     3.99    33.09    46.66    91.48    99.99    94.34P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.27    71.21     2.15    77.00     4.03    15.01     1.28     7.65    95.55    29.65P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -5.04    28.93     9.44    75.81     3.99    36.19     0.68     5.89    93.54    37.94P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.19    74.93     5.24    73.38     4.06    11.55     0.08     1.02    78.53    16.89P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.94    62.51     1.47    68.79     4.09     5.64     0.00     0.06    35.86     7.10P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.20    67.58    -1.91    67.46     4.05    -1.80     0.00     0.01    22.09     3.83P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.39    72.77     6.48    66.78     4.07     4.74     0.00     0.01    19.39     3.31P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.07    49.99    -2.89    66.87     4.08     2.82     0.00     0.02    20.25     4.16P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.44    52.03     4.38    65.54     4.06     7.29     0.00     0.01    14.30     2.83P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1      -0.06    50.16    -2.47    65.90     4.01     1.98     0.00     0.00    13.30     2.73P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.07    33.35    -6.48    62.71     4.00    -0.94     0.00     0.00     3.82     0.93P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.16    67.65     4.44    61.57     4.01    -5.41     0.00     0.00     1.59     0.21P    0.04R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.17    51.28     7.90    60.07     4.00     3.70     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.16P    0.14R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.75    43.17    -1.64    59.63     3.99    -4.02     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.13P    0.26R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.26    56.04    -1.35    58.19     3.94   -10.90     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    1.13R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.78    23.09    -3.25    53.46     3.94    -7.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.30R    0.54  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.27    45.33    -1.88    52.68     3.95   -15.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.19R    1.09  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.82    16.50    -9.48    53.30     3.98    -9.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.67R    0.49  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.51    35.42    -3.27    52.53     3.98   -13.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.75R    1.29  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.44    31.85    -4.99    52.38     3.98   -15.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   20.42R    1.45  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.67    31.32     0.33    49.40     3.93   -13.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.44R    4.96  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.07    37.84    -6.86    44.97     3.95   -32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.61R   41.43  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.77    20.22    -6.16    43.93     3.89   -23.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.05R   48.74  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.72    95.87     9.40    82.08     4.24    20.06    55.70    75.10    98.24    79.48P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.90    58.13     4.12    77.99     3.99    28.86    17.47    42.41    89.59    55.51P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.91    66.73    11.45    75.72     3.97    29.19     7.94    22.30    79.19    35.72P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.58    52.53    -0.58    74.38     3.96    20.06     3.51    11.96    65.48    26.38P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.31    76.37     4.47    74.87     3.93    16.98     4.14    13.49    68.69    25.43P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.37    43.76     8.19    75.95     3.83    35.35     8.63    24.16    83.12    41.86P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.71    33.57    -4.08    72.49     3.72    19.74     1.00     4.46    47.16    17.68P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.91    93.38     5.89    72.03     4.22     4.05     1.31     4.57    38.13     9.11P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.04    40.55     3.60    69.60     4.17    20.85     0.30     1.50    23.85     7.29P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.42    35.34     1.03    66.10     3.62    14.85     0.00     0.02     3.81     0.99P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.68    58.04     5.73    64.82     3.97    10.19     0.00     0.02     2.52     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.98    36.94    -4.39    60.60     4.04     0.43     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -4.05    32.23    -0.85    56.75     3.90     0.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.94    55.24    -5.48    55.19     3.80   -14.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.35    40.11     3.46    54.91     4.03    -1.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.70    42.80    -6.03    53.64     4.02   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.63    34.43     1.10    50.42     3.86    -9.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.77R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.33    31.50    -1.29    47.10     3.84   -14.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.66R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.79    47.26    -1.47    48.29     4.13   -20.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.99R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.90    28.60    -1.02    45.42     3.78   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.47R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.60    48.46    -1.20    40.93     3.86   -32.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.89R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.27     4.57   -17.46    27.26     3.63   -53.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   20.98  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.23    26.10   -14.58    22.21     3.75   -47.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.02  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.28    83.86    10.65    82.80     4.04    26.11    16.63    66.92    99.89    75.07P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.77    85.98     8.43    86.23     4.27    28.26    48.80    87.85    99.99    91.04P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.73    65.05     1.63    83.77     4.08    27.05    23.44    74.37    99.92    82.42P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.62    79.61     0.32    79.19     3.97    12.73     3.05    25.97    98.47    43.85P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.86    80.66    15.09    80.20     4.21    28.57     8.04    42.40    99.33    57.23P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.92    45.88     3.12    71.90     4.01    17.34     0.03     1.20    70.06    20.07P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.48    52.03     4.10    71.03     4.02    14.98     0.02     1.00    61.77    15.65P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.24    79.00     7.02    69.24     3.97     5.87     0.00     0.22    36.91     6.61P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.13    41.04    -3.95    67.53     4.00     5.77     0.00     0.05    24.57     6.18P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.12    67.60    10.31    61.01     3.94     0.86     0.00     0.00     1.26     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.50    39.54    -0.34    63.15     4.16     3.68     0.00     0.01     5.26     1.20P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.69    47.54     7.09    60.38     3.96     3.96     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.03    59.52     2.17    57.87     3.87    -8.07     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.83    38.09    -9.71    60.20     4.27    -9.60     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.05    50.22    -2.91    58.07     4.10    -9.07     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.27    56.40     1.77    55.45     3.89   -10.52     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.25    49.73     3.08    52.89     4.12   -12.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.61    34.91    -9.18    53.81     3.97   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.97    19.41   -10.05    52.59     3.98   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.55    13.26   -11.38    53.22     4.04   -10.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.20     5.80   -11.08    52.76     4.27    -5.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.44    40.05     2.36    45.31     3.73   -19.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.43R    1.43  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.07    24.54    -5.81    41.28     3.81   -29.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.21R   12.21  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.80     1.37   -12.73    33.97     4.13   -28.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.31R   86.31  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.64    82.14    13.11    84.36     4.03    32.03    72.22    99.77    78.61P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.30    74.83     3.46    79.38     4.06    18.53    15.32    94.31    32.07P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       38   63  +23      -5.55    27.73    -1.70    77.32     3.78    28.06     7.14    90.61    35.85P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.71    34.42    -2.55    75.52     4.06    21.72     3.58    78.70    25.70P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.28    71.66     9.10    74.39     4.02    18.06     1.34    68.45    14.12P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            37   58   +1       8.43    82.31     2.45    69.20     3.96    -0.51     0.07    15.75     2.38P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          39   58   -3       9.59    83.82     4.85    65.61     3.42    -6.09     0.00     2.15     0.26P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.53    35.37     1.50    68.62     3.76    14.85     0.01    14.67     3.45P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   55   +6       0.80    53.76     5.13    65.95     3.51     8.00     0.00     2.83     0.53P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       9.00    82.61     4.58    64.27     3.73    -7.66     0.00     1.24     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.38    51.83     1.59    70.11     4.55    11.52     0.31    26.78     6.09P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   54   +0       1.53    56.80    -0.39    64.80     3.84    -0.24     0.00     1.88     0.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.13    41.39     2.41    64.82     3.81     7.78     0.00     2.30     0.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      38   50   +5      -3.03    37.46     3.43    62.10     3.77     6.66     0.00     0.38     0.07P    0.08R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.07    67.24     4.70    59.47     4.26    -8.67     0.00     0.19     0.02P    1.44R    0.00  
Aldershot          39   46  -12       1.06    55.25     0.33    54.55     3.45   -13.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.61R    0.00  
Eastleigh          37   46  -12       0.11    51.31    -4.21    56.82     3.98   -14.26     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.12R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.34    28.40    -2.32    55.39     3.95    -5.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.85R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   44  -10      -7.33    22.14    -8.34    54.56     3.76   -10.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.17R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.86    14.03    -6.36    55.28     3.98    -2.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.77R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   42  -21      -6.32    25.49   -12.71    49.84     3.41   -23.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.51R    0.01  
Maidenhead         38   41  -14      -1.38    45.09     1.13    49.92     3.65   -17.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.39R    0.04  
AFC_Fylde          37   39  -16     -11.23    11.31   -14.99    52.05     4.09   -15.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.06R    0.02  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.78    21.86    -4.18    32.45     3.31   -41.07     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.92