Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 13 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.12    99.77     3.07   101.44     3.53    56.89   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.69    19.44    -5.32    80.19     3.51    54.15     0.00    98.77    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.46    67.12    15.07    68.35     4.01    34.41     0.00     1.18    77.98    93.07    99.47     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.15    38.92    -3.72    63.08     3.85    16.20     0.00     0.05    12.30    53.17    90.89     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.74    31.24     0.79    61.26     3.90    19.93     0.00     0.01     7.52    35.08    83.44     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.18    66.31     7.60    56.37     4.02     8.54     0.00     0.00     0.53     5.33    34.02     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.31    83.26     9.34    55.24     4.15     3.10     0.00     0.00     0.56     3.78    23.48     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.47    13.78    -7.77    56.82     4.04    12.25     0.00     0.00     0.80     7.00    42.51     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.19    25.27    -6.02    54.87     4.12     5.49     0.00     0.00     0.32     2.47    22.10     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.47    76.69     3.72    49.36     3.70    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.22     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.45    63.16    -0.99    48.91     3.77    -9.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.27     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.44    48.04    -4.13    49.21     3.91    -9.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.51     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.48    63.92    -5.32    45.16     3.70   -19.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.01R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.06    66.36    -1.19    43.73     3.82   -21.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.28R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.76    36.17     4.61    37.73     3.64   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.05R    1.73  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.13    21.13    -2.61    38.58     3.92   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.92R    1.89  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.48    28.07    -3.05    36.88     3.74   -21.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.77R    4.04  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.60    27.88    -3.55    35.93     3.68   -24.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.05R    5.16  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.37    43.79     0.90    33.92     3.88   -30.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.41R   16.83  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.07    29.66    -1.43    29.49     3.63   -34.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.49R   70.31  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.82    80.15     7.85    86.85     3.96    31.25    51.81    94.04   100.00    95.95P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.79    65.28     3.46    86.14     4.02    32.95    46.07    91.24    99.99    94.25P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.41    71.48     2.29    77.01     4.02    15.01     1.32     7.93    95.48    29.61P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.98    29.21     9.50    75.75     4.02    36.12     0.69     5.58    93.29    37.80P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       5.87    73.67     4.79    73.46     4.04    11.66     0.11     1.13    79.15    17.59P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.79    61.87     1.27    68.82     4.07     5.67     0.00     0.05    35.95     6.90P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.18    67.71    -1.90    67.42     4.03    -1.83     0.00     0.01    21.84     3.80P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.34    72.21     6.44    66.78     4.06     4.73     0.00     0.01    19.41     3.26P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.06    50.09    -2.82    66.88     4.05     2.86     0.00     0.01    20.07     4.18P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.56    52.53     4.54    65.59     4.08     7.36     0.00     0.01    14.42     2.79P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.14    50.90    -2.12    65.82     4.00     1.88     0.00     0.01    13.06     2.59P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.98    33.52    -6.31    62.70     4.02    -0.95     0.00     0.00     3.92     0.77P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       3.95    67.12     4.08    61.59     4.04    -5.40     0.00     0.00     1.61     0.21P    0.08R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.21    51.69     8.04    60.06     4.01     3.67     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.15P    0.18R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.92    41.93    -1.83    59.72     4.01    -3.93     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.11P    0.22R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.19    55.69    -1.45    58.22     3.96   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    1.14R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.78    23.24    -3.25    53.45     3.97    -7.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.37R    0.55  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.27    45.16    -1.87    52.70     3.94   -15.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.00R    1.07  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.79    16.54    -9.42    53.32     4.00    -9.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   11.83R    0.53  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.32    36.25    -3.09    52.49     3.98   -13.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.09R    1.27  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.62    31.41    -5.31    52.45     4.01   -15.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.14R    1.40  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.79    30.48     0.13    49.40     3.90   -13.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.18R    4.83  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.94    38.02    -6.70    44.94     3.95   -32.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.70R   41.86  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.88    19.72    -6.30    43.94     3.89   -23.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.07R   48.49  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.66    95.80     9.29    82.09     4.22    20.08    55.50    74.97    98.21    79.48P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.94    58.35     4.19    78.00     4.00    28.90    17.66    42.22    89.62    55.35P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.67    65.90    11.14    75.78     3.95    29.26     8.10    22.62    79.52    36.13P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.49    52.06    -0.67    74.39     3.94    20.08     3.62    11.82    65.36    26.20P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.00    75.09     4.05    74.97     3.92    17.10     4.23    13.96    69.52    25.88P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.21    44.15     8.48    75.92     3.85    35.34     8.37    23.79    82.88    40.97P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.66    33.69    -4.07    72.49     3.73    19.73     0.95     4.42    46.90    17.58P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      13.05    93.61     6.11    72.00     4.22     4.01     1.29     4.56    37.84     9.20P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.45    38.54     3.05    69.66     4.20    20.96     0.27     1.61    24.08     7.79P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.59    34.86     0.78    66.12     3.62    14.90     0.00     0.00     3.65     0.95P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       2.00    59.25     6.22    64.74     3.95    10.06     0.00     0.02     2.27     0.45P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.73    38.04    -4.02    60.54     4.05     0.35     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.88    33.11    -0.59    56.73     3.91     0.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.93    54.96    -5.50    55.20     3.79   -14.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.43    39.99     3.29    54.97     4.03    -1.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.69    42.82    -6.03    53.64     4.05   -12.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.65    34.27     1.07    50.39     3.84    -9.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.85R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.49    31.05    -1.45    47.13     3.81   -14.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.09R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.77    47.35    -1.41    48.26     4.15   -20.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.09R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.84    28.82    -0.86    45.41     3.81   -15.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.85R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.43    49.16    -0.90    40.88     3.86   -32.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.93R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.32     4.52   -17.62    27.29     3.63   -53.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.12  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.17    26.34   -14.56    22.14     3.73   -47.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.88  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.18    83.83    10.47    82.85     4.05    26.19    16.89    67.28    99.85    75.44P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.82    86.17     8.45    86.20     4.24    28.20    48.10    87.76    99.98    91.20P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.52    64.56     1.39    83.81     4.07    27.09    23.87    74.73    99.93    82.81P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.86    79.98     0.66    79.13     3.98    12.66     2.99    25.38    98.47    43.30P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       8.08    81.39    15.38    80.19     4.22    28.55     8.10    42.30    99.33    56.83P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.78    46.45     3.33    71.89     4.04    17.31     0.03     1.30    70.08    19.90P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.48    51.93     4.08    71.01     4.05    14.96     0.03     0.97    61.46    15.37P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.41    79.27     7.28    69.18     3.97     5.80     0.00     0.23    36.36     6.59P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.44    39.92    -4.33    67.56     3.99     5.85     0.00     0.05    25.11     6.61P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.16    67.85    10.38    61.00     3.91     0.86     0.00     0.00     1.26     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.62    38.73    -0.42    63.17     4.18     3.70     0.00     0.00     5.59     1.27P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.78    46.97     6.97    60.35     3.94     3.94     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.18    60.33     2.36    57.88     3.89    -8.06     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.90    37.73    -9.81    60.27     4.25    -9.55     0.00     0.00     1.03     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7      -0.02    50.66    -2.86    58.05     4.09    -9.10     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.15    55.93     1.60    55.47     3.88   -10.50     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.45    48.73     2.76    52.90     4.09   -12.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.63    34.91    -9.15    53.84     3.98   -17.81     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.73    20.17    -9.69    52.55     3.97   -14.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.36    13.50   -11.13    53.18     4.05   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.17     5.84   -11.04    52.73     4.29    -5.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.63    38.86     2.09    45.33     3.73   -19.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.45R    1.45  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.15    24.21    -5.95    41.32     3.81   -29.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.01R   12.01  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.81     1.42   -12.81    33.96     4.16   -28.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.49R   86.49  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Dag_&_Red 1 2 AFC_Fylde; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.59    82.06    13.08    84.35     4.04    32.00    73.63    99.76    79.86P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.33    75.02     3.55    79.45     4.06    18.63    15.98    94.22    33.28P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       37   60  +19      -5.11    29.01    -2.48    76.04     4.03    24.57     4.41    81.66    29.93P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.88    33.83    -2.79    75.59     4.06    21.85     3.90    78.10    26.84P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.28    71.80     9.06    74.38     4.05    18.06     1.45    66.51    14.13P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            36   58   +2       9.49    85.21     3.07    70.91     4.21     0.98     0.30    28.02     4.61P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.50    35.70     1.50    68.58     3.74    14.80     0.01    13.69     3.37P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          38   55   -4       8.42    80.85     4.47    63.87     3.70    -7.25     0.00     1.02     0.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       9.03    82.55     4.61    64.29     3.73    -7.64     0.00     1.17     0.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.45    51.98     1.72    70.05     4.52    11.45     0.33    25.67     5.85P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         38   54   +6       0.83    53.88     4.57    66.16     3.77     7.81     0.00     3.81     0.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     37   53   +0       1.78    58.01    -0.62    65.43     4.10     0.13     0.00     3.18     0.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.15    41.60     2.34    64.81     3.79     7.73     0.00     2.08     0.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      37   49   +5      -2.59    39.42     3.53    62.62     4.04     6.87     0.00     0.82     0.16P    0.09R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.04    67.06     4.66    59.46     4.27    -8.66     0.00     0.22     0.03P    1.33R    0.00  
Eastleigh          36   46   -8      -0.04    50.37    -2.68    57.80     4.18   -10.91     0.00     0.07     0.00P    2.90R    0.00  
Aldershot          38   46  -11       1.71    58.05     0.43    55.68     3.70   -12.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.45R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.49    27.71    -2.52    55.35     3.96    -5.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.32R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.03    13.36    -6.58    55.36     3.97    -2.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.89R    0.00  
Chesterfield       37   43  -10      -7.06    22.80    -8.48    54.69     4.03   -11.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.21R    0.00  
Maidenhead         37   41  -13      -0.28    49.72     1.67    51.42     3.93   -16.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.70R    0.01  
Ebbsfleet_United   38   39  -22      -7.65    20.56   -13.17    47.88     3.66   -25.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.90R    0.10  
AFC_Fylde          36   36  -17     -12.09     8.96   -14.82    50.63     4.32   -15.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.18R    0.08  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.68    22.35    -4.11    32.47     3.32   -41.01     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.81