Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 12 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.06    99.80     2.95   101.45     3.50    56.88   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.71    19.43    -5.36    80.22     3.53    54.18     0.00    98.75    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.62    67.70    15.34    68.28     4.00    34.29     0.00     1.17    77.52    92.83    99.47     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.07    39.34    -3.65    63.09     3.86    16.20     0.00     0.06    12.48    53.11    90.87     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.84    30.79     0.59    61.32     3.89    20.03     0.00     0.01     7.82    35.43    83.83     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.12    65.96     7.45    56.41     4.02     8.57     0.00     0.00     0.54     5.24    34.53     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.51    84.33     9.59    55.18     4.15     3.04     0.00     0.00     0.49     3.67    22.79     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.61    13.17    -7.92    56.87     4.04    12.31     0.00     0.00     0.86     7.10    42.88     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.18    25.16    -5.97    54.85     4.12     5.45     0.00     0.00     0.31     2.48    21.72     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.58    77.17     3.91    49.29     3.69    -9.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.10     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.30    62.39    -1.21    48.91     3.77    -9.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     1.22     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.64    47.23    -4.37    49.28     3.90    -9.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.50     0.04R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.56    64.34    -5.18    45.14     3.72   -19.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.04R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.11    67.16    -1.21    43.73     3.82   -21.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.49R    0.04  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.70    36.55     4.62    37.73     3.65   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.79R    1.67  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.06    21.43    -2.48    38.51     3.91   -16.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.25R    2.00  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.61    27.33    -3.30    36.92     3.74   -21.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.46R    4.01  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.48    28.09    -3.32    35.91     3.66   -24.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.10R    4.92  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.34    44.01     0.99    33.93     3.91   -30.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.33R   16.91  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.09    29.44    -1.48    29.49     3.64   -34.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.49R   70.46  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.92    80.37     8.03    86.82     3.96    31.21    50.54    93.89   100.00    95.86P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.65    65.02     3.31    86.28     3.99    33.12    47.40    91.88   100.00    94.66P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.49    71.64     2.49    76.99     4.04    14.96     1.28     7.80    95.32    29.72P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.97    29.44     9.56    75.76     3.98    36.12     0.70     5.33    93.28    37.39P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.10    74.76     5.12    73.40     4.05    11.59     0.07     0.99    78.60    17.07P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.90    62.22     1.44    68.82     4.04     5.67     0.01     0.07    35.75     7.04P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       3.97    66.42    -2.28    67.56     4.06    -1.65     0.00     0.01    22.61     3.71P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.08    71.50     6.03    66.88     4.05     4.86     0.00     0.01    19.73     3.40P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2       0.03    50.47    -2.75    66.86     4.08     2.83     0.00     0.02    20.03     4.34P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.43    52.10     4.31    65.50     4.07     7.24     0.00     0.00    13.94     2.67P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.09    50.55    -2.20    65.87     4.03     1.91     0.00     0.01    13.43     2.75P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.99    33.49    -6.34    62.73     4.02    -0.91     0.00     0.00     3.89     0.91P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.04    67.26     4.25    61.58     4.03    -5.39     0.00     0.00     1.63     0.17P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.16    51.01     7.93    60.07     3.99     3.67     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.14P    0.16R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.55    43.92    -1.32    59.65     4.01    -4.01     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.12P    0.21R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.45    56.89    -1.03    58.12     3.96   -10.99     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    1.22R    0.02  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -7.07    22.35    -3.64    53.50     3.94    -7.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     9.90R    0.49  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.19    45.44    -1.74    52.64     3.94   -15.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.32R    1.13  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.81    16.41    -9.45    53.26     3.99    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   11.90R    0.56  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.51    35.26    -3.42    52.54     3.97   -13.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.74R    1.22  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.44    32.00    -5.06    52.38     3.98   -15.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.26R    1.58  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.78    30.56     0.16    49.38     3.89   -13.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.56R    4.74  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.18    37.07    -7.10    45.01     3.96   -31.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.41R   41.21  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.82    20.00    -6.30    43.93     3.87   -23.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.26R   49.05  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.51    95.59     9.05    82.16     4.26    20.17    56.30    75.62    98.25    79.99P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.04    58.63     4.38    78.01     3.96    28.87    17.16    42.27    89.84    55.39P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.88    66.88    11.49    75.75     3.94    29.22     7.84    21.93    79.44    35.61P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.64    52.65    -0.46    74.35     3.97    20.05     3.54    11.90    65.22    26.15P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.28    76.33     4.37    74.89     3.93    17.00     4.31    13.82    69.01    25.70P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.27    43.96     8.39    75.93     3.83    35.36     8.21    23.70    83.31    41.15P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.67    33.49    -4.07    72.51     3.74    19.74     0.97     4.54    47.31    17.89P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      13.12    93.63     6.20    71.99     4.23     4.00     1.38     4.61    37.65     9.21P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.21    39.95     3.37    69.62     4.18    20.91     0.29     1.58    23.81     7.43P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.47    35.29     0.94    66.11     3.61    14.85     0.00     0.01     3.71     0.97P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.87    58.54     6.00    64.77     3.96    10.09     0.00     0.02     2.29     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.88    37.41    -4.24    60.58     4.03     0.38     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.89    33.03    -0.71    56.71     3.89     0.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.69    53.53    -5.84    55.23     3.83   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.53    39.36     3.14    54.98     4.03    -1.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.71    42.53    -6.07    53.63     4.01   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.72    33.79     0.96    50.40     3.86    -9.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.74R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.59    30.18    -1.70    47.18     3.81   -14.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.93R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.84    46.61    -1.47    48.31     4.12   -20.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.74R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.82    28.85    -0.83    45.38     3.81   -15.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.47R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.29    49.95    -0.66    40.80     3.84   -32.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.92R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.27     4.46   -17.57    27.27     3.63   -53.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.76  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.30    26.22   -14.68    22.21     3.75   -47.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.24  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.32    84.08    10.64    82.82     4.04    26.15    16.93    66.72    99.86    75.12P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.77    85.60     8.31    86.22     4.24    28.24    48.51    88.05    99.99    91.41P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.53    64.34     1.40    83.80     4.06    27.08    23.37    74.72    99.90    82.56P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.82    80.08     0.63    79.10     3.98    12.61     2.89    25.14    98.28    43.25P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.99    81.11    15.21    80.24     4.23    28.62     8.25    42.74    99.35    57.12P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.88    46.12     3.19    71.90     4.06    17.32     0.04     1.36    70.16    19.87P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.42    51.80     3.98    71.02     4.02    14.97     0.01     1.00    61.36    15.40P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.21    78.60     7.00    69.24     3.97     5.88     0.00     0.20    36.86     6.62P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.29    40.16    -4.12    67.55     4.00     5.84     0.00     0.05    24.94     6.63P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.00    67.10    10.13    61.04     3.93     0.93     0.00     0.00     1.20     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.55    39.28    -0.39    63.21     4.19     3.76     0.00     0.01     5.63     1.33P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.70    47.67     7.06    60.36     3.95     3.94     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.93    59.43     2.02    57.91     3.87    -8.03     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.66    39.13    -9.42    60.18     4.28    -9.67     0.00     0.00     1.05     0.26P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.27    51.60    -2.47    57.99     4.11    -9.19     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.31    56.48     1.92    55.47     3.88   -10.51     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.22    49.93     3.13    52.85     4.12   -12.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.58    35.26    -9.10    53.80     3.99   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.91    19.26    -9.95    52.59     3.96   -14.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.59    13.09   -11.42    53.22     4.06   -10.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.48     5.23   -11.48    52.81     4.30    -5.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.30    40.31     2.51    45.27     3.74   -19.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.43R    1.43  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.14    24.37    -5.89    41.30     3.82   -29.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.39R   12.39  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.87     1.25   -12.88    33.98     4.15   -28.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.14R   86.14  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Dag_&_Red 1 2 AFC_Fylde; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.73    82.48    13.22    84.31     4.05    31.96    73.01    99.74    79.35P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.37    75.06     3.56    79.44     4.06    18.64    16.19    94.05    33.22P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       37   60  +19      -5.08    29.13    -2.45    76.07     4.03    24.61     4.59    81.76    30.26P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.73    34.38    -2.57    75.53     4.05    21.79     3.95    77.47    26.31P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.20    71.25     9.01    74.41     4.04    18.10     1.54    66.64    14.47P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            36   58   +2       9.67    85.92     3.32    70.89     4.19     0.94     0.32    27.53     4.48P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.42    35.90     1.61    68.56     3.79    14.79     0.01    13.95     3.26P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          38   55   -4       8.33    80.95     4.35    63.88     3.70    -7.25     0.00     1.06     0.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.78    81.95     4.16    64.31     3.71    -7.61     0.00     1.20     0.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.43    51.99     1.68    70.17     4.55    11.58     0.40    26.39     6.34P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         38   54   +6       0.87    54.14     4.66    66.15     3.77     7.78     0.00     3.92     0.70P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     37   53   +0       1.49    56.76    -1.03    65.40     4.07     0.12     0.00     3.19     0.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.15    41.44     2.33    64.78     3.83     7.74     0.00     2.00     0.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      37   49   +5      -2.59    39.32     3.51    62.61     4.04     6.88     0.00     0.80     0.15P    0.09R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.89    66.58     4.44    59.52     4.30    -8.61     0.00     0.26     0.03P    1.37R    0.00  
Eastleigh          36   46   -8       0.16    51.39    -2.36    57.74     4.16   -10.98     0.00     0.05     0.01P    3.05R    0.00  
Aldershot          38   46  -11       1.80    58.60     0.51    55.64     3.70   -12.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.73R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.35    28.42    -2.28    55.31     3.93    -5.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.22R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.99    13.90    -6.50    55.35     4.01    -2.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.21R    0.00  
Chesterfield       37   43  -10      -7.22    22.14    -8.73    54.71     4.02   -11.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.73R    0.00  
Maidenhead         37   41  -13      -0.32    49.41     1.60    51.44     3.94   -16.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.54R    0.02  
Ebbsfleet_United   38   39  -22      -7.70    20.58   -13.25    47.88     3.65   -25.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.72R    0.11  
AFC_Fylde          36   36  -17     -12.12     9.22   -14.85    50.67     4.33   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.32R    0.08  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.60    22.54    -3.94    32.48     3.30   -41.02     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.79