Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 11 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.09    99.79     2.94   101.45     3.51    56.85   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.49    20.33    -4.90    80.14     3.56    54.00     0.00    98.76    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.59    67.62    15.32    68.25     3.98    34.25     0.00     1.15    77.43    92.82    99.46     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.22    38.44    -3.82    63.16     3.83    16.32     0.00     0.08    12.68    53.61    91.19     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.88    30.81     0.54    61.31     3.88    20.03     0.00     0.01     7.77    35.40    84.08     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.23    66.53     7.66    56.33     4.00     8.46     0.00     0.00     0.46     4.95    33.71     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.36    83.67     9.36    55.18     4.15     3.05     0.00     0.00     0.53     3.65    22.99     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.54    13.62    -7.81    56.84     4.03    12.28     0.00     0.00     0.91     7.03    42.70     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.09    25.57    -5.87    54.84     4.13     5.44     0.00     0.00     0.26     2.39    21.93     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.55    76.96     3.85    49.33     3.72    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.12     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.27    62.18    -1.26    48.91     3.78    -9.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.27     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.65    47.21    -4.48    49.28     3.89    -9.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.46     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.56    64.43    -5.22    45.17     3.70   -19.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.03R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.02    66.59    -1.29    43.71     3.82   -21.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.38R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.64    36.95     4.69    37.72     3.63   -13.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.96R    1.74  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.04    21.32    -2.46    38.57     3.92   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.20R    1.96  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.34    28.77    -2.86    36.84     3.76   -21.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.33R    4.21  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.57    27.75    -3.48    35.97     3.68   -24.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.32R    5.11  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.52    42.99     0.55    33.95     3.90   -30.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.17R   16.45  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.09    29.52    -1.48    29.51     3.63   -34.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.58R   70.49  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.62    79.34     7.54    86.90     3.95    31.37    51.76    94.00   100.00    95.89P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.70    65.03     3.37    86.20     4.01    33.01    46.18    91.28   100.00    94.14P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.29    71.06     2.17    77.03     4.03    15.00     1.32     8.06    95.22    29.95P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.86    29.79     9.72    75.77     3.98    36.13     0.67     5.53    93.50    37.60P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.13    74.68     5.18    73.39     4.04    11.57     0.07     1.06    78.58    17.02P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.96    62.84     1.50    68.79     4.05     5.63     0.00     0.03    35.55     6.86P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.10    67.13    -2.05    67.45     4.05    -1.77     0.00     0.01    21.89     3.89P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.01    71.25     5.92    66.91     4.05     4.88     0.00     0.01    20.18     3.48P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.19    49.44    -3.07    66.89     4.07     2.86     0.00     0.01    20.02     4.12P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.29    51.25     4.21    65.60     4.07     7.37     0.00     0.01    14.66     2.92P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.05    50.61    -2.29    65.83     4.02     1.88     0.00     0.00    13.23     2.81P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.94    33.88    -6.25    62.72     4.03    -0.95     0.00     0.00     3.86     0.80P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.21    67.68     4.48    61.54     4.02    -5.43     0.00     0.00     1.54     0.21P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.19    51.38     7.97    60.06     3.99     3.68     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.15P    0.15R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.63    43.31    -1.46    59.65     4.00    -4.01     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.14P    0.20R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.11    55.38    -1.66    58.26     3.97   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    1.19R    0.00  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.64    23.87    -3.00    53.43     3.93    -7.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    9.84R    0.49  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.55    44.14    -2.29    52.71     3.95   -15.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.69R    1.04  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.91    16.18    -9.57    53.30     3.98    -9.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.45R    0.47  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.38    35.92    -3.22    52.51     3.99   -13.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.89R    1.33  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.59    31.21    -5.24    52.43     3.97   -15.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.82R    1.40  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.41    32.08     0.77    49.30     3.89   -13.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.75R    4.93  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.84    38.67    -6.53    44.90     3.95   -32.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.75R   41.84  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.82    20.19    -6.20    43.90     3.88   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.21R   48.50  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.59    95.74     9.19    82.14     4.24    20.13    56.28    75.73    98.23    80.09P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.13    59.10     4.56    77.95     4.00    28.79    16.74    41.84    89.51    54.88P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.65    65.85    11.10    75.79     3.96    29.28     8.20    22.62    79.83    36.46P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.61    52.68    -0.46    74.37     3.95    20.04     3.60    11.79    65.29    26.08P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       6.17    76.00     4.26    74.90     3.92    17.02     4.15    13.81    69.18    25.64P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.07    44.95     8.69    75.88     3.85    35.27     8.30    23.51    82.69    40.70P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.69    33.74    -4.05    72.49     3.73    19.74     1.01     4.36    47.20    17.64P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      13.11    93.60     6.15    72.01     4.24     4.01     1.41     4.75    37.71     9.41P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.26    39.74     3.30    69.62     4.19    20.90     0.30     1.56    24.02     7.56P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.56    34.93     0.86    66.08     3.63    14.81     0.00     0.00     3.72     1.04P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.94    59.03     6.08    64.75     3.95    10.09     0.00     0.03     2.41     0.45P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.91    37.35    -4.31    60.60     4.06     0.41     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -3.87    32.91    -0.60    56.73     3.92     0.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.68    53.60    -5.89    55.25     3.80   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.52    39.35     3.23    54.96     4.00    -1.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.61    43.17    -5.89    53.61     4.04   -12.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.61    34.24     1.16    50.36     3.86    -9.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.78R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.52    30.94    -1.62    47.17     3.83   -14.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.18R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.88    46.98    -1.60    48.30     4.13   -20.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.81R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.88    28.58    -0.92    45.41     3.80   -15.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.57R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.50    49.16    -0.99    40.88     3.84   -32.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.47R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.22     4.34   -17.45    27.28     3.61   -53.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   21.00  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.32    26.04   -14.78    22.26     3.77   -47.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.00  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.25    83.87    10.63    82.86     4.03    26.23    16.71    67.39    99.86    75.66P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.63    85.62     8.21    86.24     4.29    28.26    48.52    87.61    99.99    90.86P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.38    63.60     1.12    83.83     4.08    27.15    23.63    74.83    99.92    82.77P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.66    79.65     0.43    79.15     3.97    12.71     2.91    25.65    98.40    43.62P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.96    81.03    15.18    80.18     4.23    28.53     8.14    41.93    99.36    56.80P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.77    46.53     3.32    71.91     4.02    17.34     0.04     1.37    70.32    20.06P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.54    52.38     4.15    70.99     4.04    14.92     0.04     0.99    61.29    15.36P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.31    79.05     7.12    69.21     3.94     5.85     0.01     0.19    36.69     6.61P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.29    40.42    -4.13    67.53     3.99     5.80     0.00     0.05    24.85     6.30P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.05    67.28    10.23    61.07     3.94     0.97     0.00     0.00     1.26     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.52    39.62    -0.30    63.17     4.18     3.69     0.00     0.00     5.50     1.27P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.68    47.73     7.13    60.37     3.96     3.96     0.00     0.00     1.08     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.96    59.29     2.08    57.92     3.89    -7.99     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.57    39.15    -9.32    60.18     4.25    -9.70     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.12    51.19    -2.65    57.97     4.08    -9.21     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.29    56.74     1.81    55.45     3.89   -10.53     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.33    49.23     2.96    52.86     4.10   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.72    34.48    -9.27    53.84     4.00   -17.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.87    19.60    -9.93    52.56     3.97   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.73    12.59   -11.62    53.22     4.03   -10.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.13     5.84   -10.99    52.73     4.28    -5.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.43    39.66     2.32    45.31     3.76   -19.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.40R    1.40  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -5.96    24.72    -5.67    41.26     3.79   -29.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.49R   12.49  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.78     1.34   -12.81    33.99     4.15   -28.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.06R   86.06  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Dag_&_Red 1 2 AFC_Fylde; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.88    82.82    13.41    84.27     4.05    31.88    72.63    99.77    79.09P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       5.98    73.53     3.04    79.53     4.08    18.77    16.98    94.13    34.26P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       37   60  +19      -5.01    29.64    -2.31    75.98     4.05    24.47     4.48    81.18    30.07P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.72    34.37    -2.49    75.52     4.05    21.74     3.73    77.52    26.02P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.37    71.71     9.25    74.34     4.04    17.99     1.45    66.29    14.30P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            36   58   +2       9.55    85.36     3.16    70.94     4.18     1.01     0.33    28.11     4.34P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.51    35.41     1.51    68.56     3.75    14.76     0.01    13.86     3.34P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          38   55   -4       8.34    80.79     4.38    63.86     3.71    -7.25     0.00     1.05     0.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.77    82.01     4.15    64.38     3.75    -7.54     0.00     1.28     0.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.24    51.05     1.40    70.15     4.53    11.57     0.38    26.46     6.32P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         38   54   +6       1.00    54.63     4.80    66.13     3.77     7.74     0.00     3.93     0.71P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     37   53   +0       1.88    58.58    -0.46    65.34     4.09     0.03     0.00     3.16     0.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.04    42.09     2.47    64.81     3.83     7.76     0.00     2.16     0.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      37   49   +5      -2.64    39.14     3.46    62.64     4.06     6.91     0.00     0.82     0.17P    0.08R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.03    67.08     4.60    59.52     4.26    -8.61     0.00     0.21     0.02P    1.32R    0.00  
Eastleigh          36   46   -8      -0.25    49.32    -3.00    57.89     4.20   -10.77     0.00     0.05     0.01P    2.88R    0.00  
Aldershot          38   46  -11       1.91    58.93     0.74    55.62     3.68   -12.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.51R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.33    28.46    -2.29    55.29     3.95    -5.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.52R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.06    13.55    -6.61    55.37     4.01    -2.83     0.00     0.00     0.00P    6.92R    0.00  
Chesterfield       37   43  -10      -7.12    22.63    -8.59    54.72     4.02   -11.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.89R    0.00  
Maidenhead         37   41  -13      -0.43    49.07     1.41    51.45     3.97   -16.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.52R    0.02  
Ebbsfleet_United   38   39  -22      -7.56    21.12   -13.06    47.87     3.67   -25.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.79R    0.10  
AFC_Fylde          36   36  -17     -12.06     9.17   -14.76    50.59     4.33   -15.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.55R    0.08  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.76    21.93    -4.21    32.50     3.31   -40.95     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.80