Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 10 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.11    99.81     2.98   101.47     3.50    56.87   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.68    19.54    -5.19    80.17     3.52    54.09     0.00    98.66    99.95    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.64    67.68    15.40    68.29     4.00    34.30     0.00     1.26    77.61    92.92    99.49     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.24    38.35    -3.83    63.15     3.85    16.31     0.00     0.06    12.62    53.83    91.34     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.92    30.70     0.57    61.25     3.89    19.93     0.00     0.02     7.64    34.88    83.53     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.19    66.30     7.55    56.38     4.01     8.52     0.00     0.00     0.54     5.11    34.07     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.56    84.27     9.65    55.14     4.15     2.97     0.00     0.00     0.54     3.59    22.68     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.59    13.18    -7.90    56.89     4.04    12.34     0.00     0.00     0.80     7.11    42.74     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.18    25.01    -5.96    54.88     4.12     5.53     0.00     0.00     0.30     2.42    22.16     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.56    77.08     3.76    49.34     3.71    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.16     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.43    63.23    -1.01    48.86     3.76    -9.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.21     0.00     0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.50    47.93    -4.21    49.24     3.91    -9.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.51     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.47    63.81    -5.32    45.19     3.71   -19.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.96R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.07    66.63    -1.17    43.68     3.81   -21.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.42R    0.05  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.82    36.08     4.46    37.74     3.63   -13.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.84R    1.65  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.06    21.50    -2.45    38.57     3.95   -16.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.03R    2.05  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.44    28.01    -3.07    36.87     3.76   -21.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.01R    4.01  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.59    27.77    -3.52    35.92     3.68   -24.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.14R    5.13  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.48    43.00     0.62    33.98     3.90   -30.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.89R   16.42  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.00    29.75    -1.36    29.50     3.62   -34.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.67R   70.68  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.89    80.33     7.96    86.84     3.97    31.27    51.39    93.78   100.00    95.61P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.71    65.14     3.33    86.22     4.00    33.03    46.47    91.56   100.00    94.51P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.41    71.31     2.38    76.98     4.04    14.95     1.40     7.82    95.29    29.81P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.83    29.74     9.78    75.73     4.00    36.10     0.66     5.69    93.12    37.50P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.02    74.40     4.99    73.43     4.05    11.63     0.08     1.06    78.78    17.23P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.92    62.55     1.49    68.81     4.04     5.66     0.00     0.03    35.83     6.94P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.00    66.84    -2.20    67.50     4.07    -1.76     0.00     0.02    22.34     3.85P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.25    72.14     6.27    66.87     4.05     4.82     0.00     0.01    19.63     3.37P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2       0.06    50.54    -2.74    66.86     4.07     2.81     0.00     0.01    20.01     4.23P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.36    51.74     4.27    65.56     4.09     7.32     0.00     0.01    14.54     2.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1      -0.03    50.16    -2.38    65.84     3.99     1.91     0.00     0.00    13.13     2.79P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.08    33.32    -6.49    62.74     4.01    -0.91     0.00     0.00     3.97     0.86P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.38    68.35     4.76    61.51     4.00    -5.49     0.00     0.00     1.50     0.20P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.03    50.68     7.69    60.10     4.03     3.70     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.16P    0.14R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.51    43.87    -1.31    59.60     3.99    -4.06     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.09P    0.24R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.07    55.15    -1.61    58.20     3.96   -10.84     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.01P    1.14R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.75    23.41    -3.23    53.46     3.94    -7.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.17R    0.50  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.45    44.63    -2.15    52.71     3.92   -15.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.77R    1.10  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.96    16.15    -9.70    53.35     4.00    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.45R    0.53  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.27    36.31    -3.04    52.50     3.98   -13.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.09R    1.27  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.73    31.08    -5.47    52.42     4.02   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.46R    1.62  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.68    31.10     0.31    49.40     3.90   -13.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.57R    4.68  
Luton           37   35  -28      -3.01    37.67    -6.77    44.95     3.95   -32.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.86R   41.69  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.72    20.03    -6.11    43.92     3.91   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.04R   48.60  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Blackpool 1 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.62    95.69     9.22    82.15     4.25    20.15    56.55    75.73    98.19    80.07P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.03    58.66     4.34    77.97     3.99    28.83    17.04    41.90    89.35    54.76P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.86    66.68    11.43    75.71     3.96    29.16     7.63    21.99    79.07    35.77P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   60  +17       0.55    52.16    -0.55    74.38     3.98    20.10     3.60    11.94    65.42    26.39P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   60  +13       5.97    75.01     3.97    74.95     3.93    17.09     4.27    13.93    69.77    26.14P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.26    43.96     8.37    75.92     3.84    35.33     8.29    23.99    83.03    41.16P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   59  +16      -3.59    33.90    -3.94    72.44     3.72    19.69     0.93     4.26    46.66    17.19P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.96    93.45     5.95    72.04     4.23     4.07     1.37     4.70    38.11     9.50P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.34    39.21     3.22    69.66     4.19    20.96     0.32     1.52    24.25     7.54P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.27    36.06     1.25    66.05     3.62    14.75     0.00     0.01     3.70     0.99P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       2.01    59.39     6.18    64.74     3.93    10.06     0.00     0.01     2.28     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   48   +0      -2.95    36.93    -4.37    60.60     4.06     0.40     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   45   +1      -4.03    32.40    -0.77    56.73     3.91     0.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       35   45  -11       0.85    54.62    -5.63    55.26     3.81   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.42    39.72     3.36    54.92     4.02    -1.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.77    42.29    -6.15    53.67     4.05   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.40    35.41     1.47    50.37     3.84    -9.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.70R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.53    30.69    -1.61    47.15     3.86   -14.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.34R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.75    47.37    -1.34    48.24     4.13   -20.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.07R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.79    28.85    -0.84    45.39     3.81   -15.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.92R    0.00  
Tranmere             34   32  -24      -0.59    48.44    -1.18    40.90     3.86   -32.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.74R    0.00  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.27     4.41   -17.55    27.28     3.63   -53.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   20.87  
Bolton               34   14  -39      -5.37    25.57   -14.85    22.23     3.77   -47.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   79.12  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Carlisle 2 0 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.18    83.73    10.47    82.85     4.06    26.21    16.92    67.00    99.84    75.29P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.81    85.92     8.42    86.24     4.27    28.22    48.82    87.89   100.00    91.17P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.67    64.77     1.65    83.75     4.09    27.01    23.10    74.21    99.93    82.47P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.66    79.61     0.37    79.16     4.01    12.70     3.03    26.11    98.37    43.67P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       8.03    81.02    15.25    80.17     4.21    28.52     8.07    42.18    99.37    56.62P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.86    46.31     3.18    71.91     4.03    17.35     0.03     1.41    70.70    20.27P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.52    52.40     4.11    70.96     4.01    14.90     0.02     0.91    61.04    15.49P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.45    79.56     7.35    69.16     3.96     5.79     0.01     0.23    36.41     6.69P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.37    40.15    -4.20    67.50     4.01     5.77     0.00     0.05    24.80     6.30P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.04    67.18    10.24    61.07     3.93     0.95     0.00     0.00     1.29     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.58    39.24    -0.41    63.21     4.18     3.73     0.00     0.00     5.64     1.28P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.84    46.73     6.86    60.42     3.93     4.03     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.92    59.20     1.95    57.93     3.90    -7.99     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.82    38.04    -9.66    60.17     4.24    -9.67     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   46   -7       0.20    51.29    -2.58    58.00     4.11    -9.18     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.08    55.41     1.50    55.51     3.91   -10.45     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.26    49.35     3.07    52.87     4.10   -12.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle         37   42  -17      -3.77    34.45    -9.34    53.85     3.99   -17.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.88    19.74    -9.95    52.60     3.97   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.22    13.79   -10.89    53.14     4.05   -10.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.11     5.91   -10.92    52.72     4.28    -5.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.39    39.87     2.41    45.29     3.73   -19.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.49R    1.49  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.19    24.06    -6.00    41.31     3.81   -29.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.34R   12.34  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.87     1.33   -12.89    34.04     4.15   -28.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.13R   86.13  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 March 2020, Dag_&_Red 1 2 AFC_Fylde; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.72    82.35    13.23    84.35     4.04    31.99    73.63    99.73    79.99P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.10    74.19     3.17    79.50     4.08    18.71    16.16    94.09    33.47P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       37   60  +19      -5.18    28.57    -2.57    75.98     4.03    24.49     4.34    81.15    29.96P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.59    34.83    -2.32    75.50     4.06    21.73     3.71    77.00    26.07P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.36    71.62     9.18    74.40     4.03    18.08     1.42    66.72    14.16P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            36   58   +2       9.68    85.69     3.30    70.90     4.21     0.96     0.32    27.92     4.52P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.64    34.77     1.33    68.60     3.77    14.82     0.01    14.07     3.50P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          38   55   -4       8.39    81.03     4.41    63.84     3.71    -7.27     0.00     1.04     0.14P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking             38   55   -5       8.96    82.52     4.42    64.35     3.73    -7.57     0.00     1.25     0.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet             35   54  +10       0.29    51.33     1.50    70.20     4.55    11.62     0.42    26.81     6.28P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         38   54   +6       0.92    54.37     4.76    66.14     3.77     7.75     0.00     3.94     0.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     37   53   +0       1.74    57.70    -0.69    65.36     4.07     0.06     0.00     3.10     0.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -1.99    42.01     2.57    64.80     3.83     7.75     0.00     2.16     0.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      37   49   +5      -2.50    39.74     3.67    62.58     4.03     6.82     0.00     0.82     0.20P    0.05R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.15    67.49     4.89    59.42     4.27    -8.77     0.00     0.17     0.03P    1.37R    0.00  
Eastleigh          36   46   -8      -0.26    49.70    -3.00    57.83     4.18   -10.85     0.00     0.04     0.01P    2.98R    0.00  
Aldershot          38   46  -11       1.70    58.45     0.38    55.69     3.70   -12.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.42R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   44   -4      -5.34    28.50    -2.36    55.27     3.94    -5.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.37R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.00    13.75    -6.55    55.38     3.99    -2.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.87R    0.00  
Chesterfield       37   43  -10      -7.06    22.55    -8.43    54.70     4.02   -11.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.06R    0.00  
Maidenhead         37   41  -13      -0.32    49.43     1.58    51.46     3.95   -16.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.44R    0.01  
Ebbsfleet_United   38   39  -22      -7.73    20.43   -13.32    47.90     3.67   -25.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.75R    0.12  
AFC_Fylde          36   36  -17     -12.15     9.12   -14.91    50.63     4.31   -15.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.65R    0.06  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.79    21.86    -4.25    32.49     3.31   -40.98     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.81