Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 9 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 March 2020, Leicester 4 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.09    99.80     3.01   101.43     3.53    56.82   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.71    19.45    -5.33    80.21     3.52    54.21     0.00    98.70    99.95   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   53  +30       3.55    67.55    15.20    68.32     4.00    34.37     0.00     1.21    77.84    93.02    99.52     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.20    38.36    -3.80    63.13     3.84    16.26     0.00     0.07    12.35    53.40    91.31     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.80    31.05     0.69    61.30     3.88    20.01     0.00     0.01     7.67    35.42    83.88     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.24    66.62     7.64    56.34     4.03     8.49     0.00     0.00     0.54     5.06    34.16     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.55    84.42     9.61    55.17     4.15     2.99     0.00     0.00     0.55     3.63    22.96     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.57    13.27    -7.86    56.82     4.01    12.26     0.00     0.00     0.80     6.97    42.29     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.05    25.55    -5.78    54.83     4.12     5.40     0.00     0.00     0.29     2.41    21.93     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.57    77.08     3.85    49.35     3.69    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.15     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.41    62.98    -1.03    48.88     3.76    -9.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.14     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.71    46.97    -4.55    49.26     3.90    -9.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.54     0.04R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.49    63.64    -5.30    45.21     3.72   -19.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.03R    0.02  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.05    66.69    -1.25    43.73     3.83   -21.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.42R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.73    36.13     4.66    37.72     3.64   -13.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.02R    1.67  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.12    21.20    -2.64    38.58     3.94   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.15R    2.02  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.39    28.41    -2.91    36.79     3.73   -21.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.36R    4.23  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.47    27.95    -3.26    35.92     3.67   -24.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.09R    5.17  
Aston_Villa      28   25  -22      -1.57    42.73     0.54    34.00     3.92   -30.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.51R   16.75  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.07    29.48    -1.50    29.51     3.65   -34.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.38R   70.11  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.74    79.84     7.70    86.87     3.97    31.29    51.54    93.91   100.00    95.88P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.57    64.73     3.15    86.24     4.01    33.07    46.33    91.53   100.00    94.48P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.35    71.27     2.24    77.01     4.05    15.00     1.36     7.92    95.25    29.67P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.84    29.89     9.72    75.75     4.00    36.09     0.71     5.50    93.37    37.33P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.20    74.75     5.22    73.38     4.04    11.56     0.06     1.07    78.65    17.21P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.66    61.30     1.14    68.88     4.06     5.76     0.00     0.05    36.55     7.08P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.18    67.62    -1.96    67.44     4.02    -1.78     0.00     0.01    21.87     3.86P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.20    72.16     6.20    66.84     4.05     4.80     0.00     0.01    19.43     3.33P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2       0.08    50.54    -2.66    66.82     4.08     2.77     0.00     0.00    19.88     4.28P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.37    51.89     4.34    65.54     4.07     7.28     0.00     0.01    14.19     2.78P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.04    50.51    -2.28    65.87     4.02     1.92     0.00     0.00    13.60     2.77P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -3.99    33.51    -6.34    62.70     4.03    -0.97     0.00     0.00     3.85     0.79P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.09    67.44     4.28    61.58     3.99    -5.39     0.00     0.00     1.49     0.19P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.11    51.08     7.86    60.11     4.01     3.73     0.00     0.00     1.03     0.18P    0.16R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.65    43.27    -1.46    59.67     4.00    -4.00     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.15P    0.24R    0.00  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.28    55.95    -1.36    58.17     3.94   -10.93     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    1.15R    0.01  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.84    23.23    -3.34    53.50     3.94    -7.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.09R    0.54  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.34    45.04    -1.98    52.66     3.94   -15.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.41R    1.06  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.81    16.46    -9.46    53.28     3.98    -9.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   11.47R    0.51  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.38    36.01    -3.15    52.49     3.98   -13.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.94R    1.23  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.73    31.08    -5.49    52.49     3.99   -15.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.63R    1.34  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.64    31.14     0.34    49.41     3.92   -12.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.59R    4.73  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.97    38.22    -6.62    44.90     3.96   -32.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.82R   41.92  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -7.72    20.10    -6.12    43.89     3.87   -23.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.42R   48.65  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2020, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Bolton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.58    95.70     9.16    82.10     4.23    20.08    53.33    72.94    97.81    77.72P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       1.84    58.03     4.04    78.02     3.98    28.93    16.59    39.92    88.34    52.96P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.85    66.89    11.42    75.80     3.97    29.28     7.68    20.57    77.14    33.98P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.20    44.26     8.42    75.92     3.83    35.39     7.90    21.78    80.60    38.55P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           35   59  +18      -2.89    36.67    -2.98    74.26     3.98    22.32     2.98    10.31    61.92    26.57P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           34   59  +17       1.25    55.60    -0.13    75.10     4.21    20.58     5.43    15.46    67.49    29.50P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       34   59  +13       6.24    76.64     3.84    74.95     4.15    16.55     4.61    13.73    64.88    24.61P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.91    93.45     5.83    72.07     4.22     4.12     1.20     4.05    35.25     8.44P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.26    39.82     3.37    69.58     4.19    20.88     0.27     1.21    20.98     6.32P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.35    35.64     1.10    66.09     3.63    14.84     0.00     0.01     2.97     0.76P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.88    59.06     6.00    64.85     3.93    10.21     0.00     0.02     2.06     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        34   47   +0      -2.00    40.90    -3.48    61.80     4.23     1.71     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            34   45   +2      -2.60    38.39     0.28    58.99     4.16     2.47     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.22    40.58     3.61    54.97     4.02    -1.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       34   42  -13      -0.35    49.25    -6.98    53.14     4.03   -16.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.70    42.45    -6.05    53.64     4.05   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.56    34.58     1.18    50.36     3.85    -9.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.50    30.65    -1.59    47.18     3.82   -14.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.52R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.81    47.03    -1.43    48.34     4.11   -20.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.00R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.98    28.12    -1.06    45.40     3.79   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.33R    0.00  
Tranmere             33   29  -25      -2.10    40.69    -1.84    38.37     4.01   -34.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.69R    0.01  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.22     4.55   -17.42    27.24     3.62   -53.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   18.42  
Bolton               33   13  -39      -5.23    25.51   -15.31    21.68     3.91   -49.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   81.57  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2020, Carlisle 0 3 Colchester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.40    84.27    10.82    82.77     4.05    26.10    16.35    66.58    99.84    75.08P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.73    85.69     8.31    86.24     4.27    28.30    48.63    87.96   100.00    91.22P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.54    64.35     1.45    83.81     4.09    27.08    23.85    74.71    99.91    82.67P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.82    79.87     0.59    79.15     3.97    12.69     2.85    25.90    98.45    43.66P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       8.00    81.06    15.24    80.16     4.25    28.53     8.27    42.24    99.30    56.87P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.84    46.40     3.21    71.86     4.03    17.29     0.03     1.35    69.73    19.68P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.41    51.85     3.90    71.04     4.03    15.00     0.02     1.04    61.51    15.84P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.33    79.23     7.15    69.19     3.97     5.81     0.00     0.18    36.30     6.48P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.36    40.27    -4.28    67.55     4.03     5.84     0.00     0.05    25.09     6.45P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       4.15    67.44    10.35    60.99     3.92     0.85     0.00     0.00     1.28     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.43    39.95    -0.21    63.11     4.19     3.61     0.00     0.00     5.31     1.21P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.74    47.19     7.01    60.37     3.95     3.96     0.00     0.00     1.08     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       2.07    59.50     2.20    57.90     3.88    -8.03     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.59    39.66    -9.33    60.17     4.28    -9.70     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   35   46   -5       0.48    52.85    -2.08    59.49     4.36    -6.99     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.20    56.14     1.68    55.46     3.90   -10.50     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.34    49.51     2.93    52.93     4.11   -12.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.91    19.77   -10.03    52.62     3.97   -14.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.67    12.95   -11.55    53.27     4.05   -10.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Carlisle         36   39  -19      -4.63    30.50   -10.24    52.20     4.23   -19.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.03  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.22     5.77   -11.13    52.77     4.28    -5.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.44    39.58     2.39    45.29     3.75   -19.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.43R    1.43  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -5.94    25.00    -5.60    41.24     3.80   -29.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.18R   12.18  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.79     1.39   -12.79    33.94     4.14   -28.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.31R   86.31  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 0 0 Solihull_Moors; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.83    82.76    13.41    84.28     4.03    31.90    73.88    99.81    80.08P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.33    74.90     3.56    79.45     4.06    18.65    16.69    94.82    33.92P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.74    34.26    -2.57    75.57     4.04    21.84     3.92    79.71    27.30P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.37    71.81     9.23    74.36     4.04    18.02     1.58    68.65    14.75P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            36   58   +2       9.57    85.53     3.17    70.89     4.19     0.94     0.33    29.81     4.77P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       36   57  +17      -5.72    26.85    -2.94    75.06     4.25    23.51     3.41    76.19    28.08P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.83    34.05     1.06    68.59     3.75    14.80     0.01    15.57     4.10P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             37   55   -3       9.23    83.42     4.67    65.78     3.99    -5.44     0.01     4.17     0.54P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          38   55   -4       8.52    81.51     4.60    63.84     3.69    -7.29     0.00     1.19     0.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Hartlepool         38   54   +6       0.73    53.48     4.45    66.20     3.77     7.84     0.00     4.73     0.83P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     37   53   +0       1.88    58.58    -0.43    65.29     4.07    -0.05     0.00     3.38     0.62P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.22    40.93     2.24    64.81     3.82     7.78     0.00     2.41     0.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet             34   51   +8      -0.44    48.17     0.78    68.39     4.78     9.40     0.18    18.28     4.13P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      37   49   +5      -2.52    39.82     3.62    62.65     4.03     6.92     0.00     0.94     0.18P    0.06R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       4.07    67.27     4.62    59.57     4.29    -8.52     0.00     0.25     0.05P    1.02R    0.00  
Eastleigh          36   46   -8       0.08    50.88    -2.47    57.78     4.18   -10.90     0.00     0.05     0.01P    2.49R    0.00  
Aldershot          37   46   -9       2.18    60.24     0.90    56.38     3.88   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.00P    4.99R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          36   44   -3      -4.47    31.31    -2.02    56.97     4.20    -4.01     0.00     0.03     0.01P    3.58R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3     -10.05    13.52    -6.64    55.41     3.98    -2.75     0.00     0.00     0.00P    5.71R    0.00  
Chesterfield       37   43  -10      -6.87    23.30    -8.18    54.62     4.01   -11.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.71R    0.00  
Maidenhead         37   41  -13      -0.21    49.94     1.70    51.39     3.94   -16.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.66R    0.02  
Ebbsfleet_United   38   39  -22      -7.64    20.62   -13.13    47.90     3.64   -25.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.95R    0.12  
AFC_Fylde          35   33  -18     -13.55     6.26   -15.55    48.76     4.54   -17.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.81R    0.23  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.66    22.47    -4.08    32.48     3.33   -40.98     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.63