Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 8 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Chelsea 4 0 Everton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        29   82  +45      17.05    99.79     2.99   101.44     3.53    56.80   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   57  +37      -5.74    19.16    -5.30    80.23     3.53    54.22     0.00    99.04    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        28   50  +26       3.60    67.93    14.13    67.37     4.21    31.56     0.00     0.87    70.98    89.12    98.75     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   48  +12      -2.11    39.02    -3.67    63.10     3.88    16.22     0.00     0.08    15.82    54.21    90.94     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   45  +14      -3.83    31.08     0.67    61.30     3.89    19.99     0.00     0.01    10.07    36.87    83.79     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +7       3.13    65.95     7.48    56.35     4.02     8.48     0.00     0.00     0.72     5.44    34.14     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   43   +5       7.44    83.90     9.53    55.21     4.15     3.09     0.00     0.00     0.78     3.97    23.35     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   41   +7      -8.60    13.18    -7.93    56.92     4.03    12.39     0.00     0.00     1.26     7.66    43.38     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   40   +4      -5.09    25.58    -5.86    54.82     4.12     5.40     0.00     0.00     0.40     2.58    21.65     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   39   -6       5.60    77.13     3.91    49.33     3.71    -9.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.16     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -6       2.48    63.13    -0.92    48.83     3.76    -9.79     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     1.25     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          29   37   -9      -0.64    46.92    -4.43    49.27     3.92    -9.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.49     0.04R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   35  -16       2.63    64.42    -5.12    45.10     3.72   -19.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.24R    0.01  
Southampton      29   34  -17       3.10    66.84    -1.20    43.70     3.82   -21.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.61R    0.03  
Brighton         29   29   -8      -2.63    37.09     4.78    37.72     3.64   -13.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.59R    2.04  
West_Ham         29   27  -15      -6.12    20.98    -2.60    38.50     3.93   -16.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.83R    2.23  
Watford          29   27  -17      -4.47    28.07    -3.15    36.91     3.74   -21.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.23R    4.34  
Bournemouth      29   27  -18      -4.53    28.03    -3.34    35.96     3.68   -24.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.83R    5.45  
Aston_Villa      27   25  -18      -1.79    41.25     1.45    34.78     4.09   -27.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.86R   12.67  
Norwich          29   21  -27      -4.01    29.62    -1.43    29.47     3.66   -34.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.75R   73.24  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 March 2020, Derby 3 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    37   71  +26       7.89    80.40     7.92    86.84     3.97    31.25    50.90    93.73   100.00    95.61P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   70  +27       3.65    65.01     3.24    86.25     4.00    33.10    46.90    91.44   100.00    94.31P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          37   64  +14       5.13    70.39     1.95    77.08     4.05    15.09     1.47     8.21    95.49    30.78P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   60  +31      -4.77    30.32     9.85    75.71     4.00    36.05     0.65     5.51    93.08    37.04P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.12    74.73     5.13    73.37     4.04    11.55     0.08     1.03    78.39    16.95P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   56   +5       2.84    62.17     1.39    68.83     4.08     5.69     0.00     0.04    36.26     7.15P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   55   -2       4.02    67.01    -2.16    67.48     4.08    -1.76     0.00     0.01    22.41     4.06P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.25    72.33     6.26    66.81     4.03     4.75     0.00     0.00    19.33     3.30P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   54   +2      -0.05    50.28    -2.87    66.84     4.07     2.81     0.00     0.01    19.85     4.14P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   53   +7       0.49    52.45     4.44    65.55     4.09     7.32     0.00     0.01    14.39     2.57P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   53   +1       0.01    50.21    -2.33    65.85     4.03     1.93     0.00     0.00    13.59     2.70P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   51   +0      -4.18    32.79    -6.57    62.75     4.00    -0.90     0.00     0.00     3.84     0.84P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             37   50   -4       4.29    68.31     4.65    61.53     4.03    -5.50     0.00     0.00     1.50     0.20P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         37   48   +4       0.10    51.08     7.82    60.11     4.02     3.73     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.18P    0.17R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   48   -3      -1.52    44.01    -1.30    59.61     3.99    -4.08     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.13P    0.22R    0.01  
Birmingham      37   47   -9       1.28    56.31    -1.34    58.14     3.98   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    1.19R    0.00  
Stoke           37   42   -6      -6.87    23.16    -3.34    53.51     3.96    -7.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.92R    0.53  
Huddersfield    37   42  -13      -1.34    44.92    -1.99    52.70     3.94   -15.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.10R    1.10  
Middlesbrough   37   41  -10      -8.97    15.90    -9.63    53.30     3.98    -9.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.82R    0.51  
Wigan           37   41  -12      -3.45    35.81    -3.28    52.51     3.99   -13.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.87R    1.38  
Hull            37   41  -14      -4.52    31.84    -5.16    52.43     4.00   -15.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.27R    1.56  
Charlton        37   39  -10      -4.59    31.51     0.46    49.40     3.91   -13.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.54R    4.85  
Luton           37   35  -28      -2.87    38.39    -6.56    44.88     3.94   -32.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.06R   42.32  
Barnsley        37   34  -20      -8.08    19.14    -6.59    44.01     3.89   -23.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.78R   47.74  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2020, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Bolton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             34   67  +18      14.57    95.69     9.17    82.03     4.24    20.02    52.83    72.63    97.74    77.57P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   62  +23       2.08    59.22     4.37    77.99     3.97    28.86    16.56    39.31    88.28    52.59P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   60  +24       3.83    66.97    11.36    75.79     3.97    29.30     7.79    21.08    76.92    34.21P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   59  +28      -1.14    44.72     8.55    75.93     3.81    35.34     7.88    21.73    81.10    38.83P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           35   59  +18      -2.78    37.07    -2.83    74.27     3.96    22.30     3.14    10.62    62.41    27.02P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           34   59  +17       1.14    55.14    -0.23    75.10     4.22    20.60     5.74    15.66    67.10    29.25P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       34   59  +13       6.40    76.93     4.07    74.87     4.15    16.46     4.57    13.51    64.53    24.21P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.74    92.96     5.59    72.06     4.22     4.12     1.26     4.23    35.18     8.63P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   54  +18      -2.22    40.07     3.43    69.59     4.18    20.87     0.25     1.19    21.20     6.37P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              36   52  +10      -3.44    35.21     1.03    66.14     3.61    14.88     0.00     0.00     2.97     0.83P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   51   +8       1.92    58.90     6.05    64.83     3.95    10.18     0.00     0.02     2.02     0.40P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        34   47   +0      -2.11    40.56    -3.65    61.82     4.22     1.75     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            34   45   +2      -2.78    37.69     0.01    59.03     4.13     2.55     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         35   42   -2      -2.20    40.70     3.62    54.96     4.00    -1.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       34   42  -13      -0.26    49.47    -6.77    53.10     4.00   -17.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   41  -11      -1.76    42.13    -6.10    53.64     4.03   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   40   -6      -3.69    34.08     1.08    50.43     3.86    -9.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.40R    0.00  
MK_Dons              35   37  -11      -4.63    30.17    -1.69    47.15     3.86   -14.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.79R    0.00  
Rochdale             34   36  -18      -0.75    47.41    -1.32    48.27     4.13   -20.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.32R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   35  -13      -4.87    28.77    -0.89    45.43     3.80   -15.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.01R    0.00  
Tranmere             33   29  -25      -2.14    40.54    -1.99    38.41     4.00   -34.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.34R    0.01  
Southend             35   19  -46     -13.33     4.27   -17.68    27.28     3.64   -53.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   18.54  
Bolton               33   13  -39      -5.11    26.14   -15.19    21.68     3.90   -49.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   81.45  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2020, Carlisle 0 3 Colchester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Crewe            37   69  +24       9.31    84.14    10.66    82.80     4.04    26.11    16.72    66.81    99.87    75.22P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   69  +23       9.93    86.41     8.66    86.16     4.27    28.12    48.44    87.59    99.99    91.00P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         37   68  +22       3.77    65.55     1.74    83.76     4.07    27.03    23.59    74.76    99.90    82.65P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   65  +10       7.68    79.99     0.44    79.18     3.97    12.72     3.11    26.02    98.38    44.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       36   64  +25       7.98    81.23    15.16    80.15     4.21    28.51     8.10    42.33    99.35    56.63P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   58  +15      -0.84    46.40     3.22    71.90     4.04    17.32     0.02     1.32    70.21    19.80P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   58  +14       0.46    51.96     4.04    71.02     4.01    14.97     0.02     0.91    61.37    15.73P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   57   +6       7.41    79.39     7.27    69.15     3.97     5.79     0.00     0.21    36.22     6.53P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         37   54   +4      -2.27    40.61    -4.12    67.52     3.99     5.79     0.00     0.05    24.59     6.40P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     37   50   +3       3.92    66.97    10.02    61.12     3.94     1.04     0.00     0.00     1.39     0.25P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   49   +3      -2.63    38.97    -0.48    63.15     4.17     3.71     0.00     0.00     5.53     1.16P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   48   +4      -0.81    47.00     6.93    60.39     3.92     4.01     0.00     0.00     1.08     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -6       1.91    59.03     1.93    57.93     3.91    -7.97     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   47   -9      -2.73    38.97    -9.57    60.16     4.25    -9.69     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   35   46   -5       0.51    52.94    -2.07    59.45     4.34    -7.05     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.15P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    37   45   -8       1.12    55.72     1.57    55.54     3.91   -10.44     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    36   42   -8      -0.26    49.74     3.07    52.88     4.10   -12.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   41  -13      -7.74    19.91    -9.73    52.55     3.94   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       37   40  -12     -10.48    13.28   -11.30    53.24     4.06   -10.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle         36   39  -19      -4.58    30.85   -10.09    52.16     4.21   -19.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.04  
Mansfield        36   38   -7     -14.29     5.66   -11.22    52.80     4.29    -5.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.02  
Macclesfield     37   36  -15      -2.38    40.01     2.41    45.31     3.75   -19.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.39R    1.39  
Morecambe        37   32  -25      -6.05    24.59    -5.76    41.24     3.79   -29.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.18R   12.18  
Stevenage        36   22  -26     -17.80     1.31   -12.80    33.93     4.13   -28.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.35R   86.35  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 0 0 Solihull_Moors; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             37   70  +29       8.75    82.64    13.30    84.34     4.04    31.97    74.56    99.82    80.68P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +17       6.38    75.11     3.53    79.45     4.05    18.65    16.45    94.70    33.79P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             37   60  +17      -3.56    35.03    -2.28    75.52     4.05    21.76     3.87    79.28    27.25P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   60  +15       5.34    71.57     9.17    74.37     4.03    18.04     1.50    69.09    14.93P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            36   58   +2       9.62    85.71     3.16    70.86     4.18     0.94     0.32    29.73     4.71P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       36   57  +17      -5.69    26.91    -2.81    75.00     4.24    23.42     3.10    75.52    27.26P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   55  +11      -3.54    35.31     1.47    68.55     3.77    14.75     0.01    15.88     4.00P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             37   55   -3       9.51    84.33     5.14    65.72     3.99    -5.50     0.01     4.02     0.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Stockport          38   55   -4       8.33    81.01     4.35    63.88     3.69    -7.22     0.00     1.29     0.19P    0.00R    0.00  
Hartlepool         38   54   +6       0.73    53.53     4.42    66.17     3.78     7.81     0.00     4.79     0.91P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     37   53   +0       1.74    58.01    -0.67    65.37     4.08     0.08     0.00     3.66     0.68P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            38   52   +5      -2.22    40.86     2.21    64.80     3.83     7.75     0.00     2.61     0.55P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet             34   51   +8      -0.38    48.22     0.86    68.40     4.74     9.42     0.18    18.30     4.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      37   49   +5      -2.62    39.29     3.46    62.65     4.04     6.92     0.00     0.92     0.17P    0.09R    0.00  
Torquay            36   48   -5       3.95    66.82     4.48    59.55     4.28    -8.56     0.00     0.29     0.05P    1.08R    0.00  
Eastleigh          36   46   -8      -0.05    50.37    -2.66    57.82     4.16   -10.84     0.00     0.06     0.01P    2.43R    0.00  
Aldershot          37   46   -9       2.17    60.13     0.87    56.43     3.88   -11.77     0.00     0.01     0.00P    4.84R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          36   44   -3      -4.20    32.25    -1.67    56.93     4.21    -4.08     0.00     0.04     0.01P    3.83R    0.00  
Wrexham            37   43   -3      -9.85    14.10    -6.38    55.35     3.99    -2.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.11R    0.00  
Chesterfield       37   43  -10      -6.99    22.88    -8.30    54.64     3.99   -11.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.52R    0.00  
Maidenhead         37   41  -13      -0.42    49.08     1.38    51.46     3.93   -16.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.90R    0.01  
Ebbsfleet_United   38   39  -22      -7.51    21.23   -12.96    47.87     3.67   -25.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.27R    0.10  
AFC_Fylde          35   33  -18     -13.62     6.26   -15.67    48.78     4.55   -17.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.93R    0.26  
Chorley            38   26  -34      -6.89    21.74    -4.40    32.53     3.31   -40.93     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.62