Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 6 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 March 2020, Everton 1 1 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        28   79  +44      16.27    99.67     3.49   101.20     3.63    58.46    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         27   57  +39      -4.58    23.33    -4.14    82.26     3.76    57.45     0.01    99.58    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        28   50  +26       3.57    67.52    14.04    67.41     4.22    31.63     0.00     0.40    77.16    91.87    98.95     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          28   45   +8      -2.31    37.88    -5.35    61.63     4.12    12.37     0.00     0.02    11.31    46.42    83.47     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          28   42  +12      -4.99    25.64    -0.59    59.00     4.13    16.95     0.00     0.00     5.25    24.28    67.60     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    28   42   +7       3.67    68.73     7.82    57.34     4.29     9.39     0.00     0.00     2.01    13.10    47.63     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        28   40   +7      -8.00    14.66    -7.67    57.76     4.30    13.07     0.00     0.00     3.11    16.27    54.69     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        27   40   +4       6.44    81.01     9.48    54.14     4.41     2.84     0.00     0.00     0.71     4.32    20.73     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          28   38   -6       5.69    77.97     3.57    49.22     3.95   -10.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10     2.05     0.04R    0.00  
Arsenal          27   37   +3      -6.22    21.17    -6.03    53.79     4.38     5.33     0.00     0.00     0.41     3.11    19.30     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          28   37   -5      -0.73    46.75    -2.79    50.38     4.14    -5.59     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.47     4.35     0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   28   36   -7       1.13    56.75    -1.47    47.56     4.02   -10.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.90     0.19R    0.00  
Southampton      28   34  -16       4.18    72.39    -0.52    45.33     4.08   -20.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.30     1.61R    0.03  
Newcastle        28   32  -17       1.20    57.46    -5.63    43.17     3.96   -21.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     5.17R    0.15  
Brighton         28   28   -8      -2.62    36.99     4.49    37.56     3.86   -14.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.97R    3.51  
West_Ham         28   27  -14      -5.35    24.15    -2.44    39.38     4.18   -16.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.80R    2.22  
Watford          28   27  -16      -3.66    31.61    -2.78    38.06     4.00   -20.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.53R    3.76  
Bournemouth      28   27  -17      -3.85    31.07    -3.98    36.07     3.77   -25.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.47R    7.95  
Aston_Villa      27   25  -18      -1.69    42.05     1.65    34.78     4.10   -27.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.70R   15.26  
Norwich          28   21  -26      -3.29    33.30    -1.14    30.32     3.87   -34.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.49R   67.12  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 6 March 2020, Nott'm_Forest 0 3 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       36   69  +27       4.09    67.09     3.22    86.78     4.26    33.33    56.14    92.72    99.99    95.17P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    36   68  +24       7.10    78.32     7.17    85.86     4.18    30.23    41.05    90.14    99.99    93.14P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          36   63  +14       5.95    73.93     2.57    77.36     4.31    14.98     2.20    11.39    94.07    32.52P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   60  +10       6.10    74.35     5.17    73.38     4.05    11.55     0.12     1.35    75.72    17.32P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       36   57  +26      -4.37    31.48     8.00    74.24     4.26    31.22     0.45     3.79    84.14    31.53P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         36   56   +7       3.73    65.83     2.64    70.89     4.35     8.74     0.03     0.44    52.94    11.36P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        37   54   +4       5.02    71.21     5.93    66.83     4.05     4.79     0.00     0.01    17.26     3.14P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    36   54   -2       4.43    68.91    -2.13    67.70     4.28    -1.98     0.00     0.05    22.98     4.36P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       36   53  +10       0.31    51.32     5.14    67.16     4.33    10.65     0.00     0.08    23.41     5.12P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         36   52   +1       0.40    51.91    -2.30    65.95     4.25     1.51     0.00     0.02    13.49     2.97P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         36   51   +0      -0.85    46.71    -3.63    65.14     4.34     0.69     0.00     0.00    10.83     2.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       36   48   +2      -2.43    39.68     0.29    60.97     4.22     0.93     0.00     0.00     1.91     0.37P    0.13R    0.00  
Derby           36   48   -3      -4.40    31.66    -7.54    61.00     4.28    -4.08     0.00     0.00     1.74     0.42P    0.12R    0.00  
QPR             36   47   -6       3.13    64.11     3.30    59.24     4.23    -8.57     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.08P    0.89R    0.02  
Birmingham      36   47   -7       2.03    59.45    -0.37    59.79     4.22    -8.53     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.09P    0.67R    0.00  
Reading         36   45   +2      -0.87    46.63     6.76    58.21     4.24     1.37     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P    1.30R    0.03  
Huddersfield    36   42  -11      -1.10    45.76    -1.69    53.52     4.15   -14.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   14.44R    1.08  
Hull            36   41  -10      -4.71    30.87    -3.80    53.96     4.25   -11.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.18R    1.09  
Wigan           36   40  -12      -2.97    37.53    -3.01    53.28     4.24   -12.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.20R    1.71  
Charlton        36   39   -9      -3.61    35.25     0.97    50.86     4.18   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.02R    3.58  
Stoke           36   39  -10      -6.74    22.90    -4.88    51.72     4.19   -11.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.20R    2.85  
Middlesbrough   36   38  -11     -10.12    12.43    -9.99    51.65     4.21   -10.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.46R    2.61  
Barnsley        36   34  -18      -6.96    22.61    -4.97    45.33     4.18   -21.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.56R   38.20  
Luton           36   34  -28      -2.81    38.51    -6.84    44.86     4.17   -32.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.82R   48.81  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2020, Ipswich 0 1 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             33   64  +17      13.29    94.53     8.70    79.95     4.43    18.40    29.17    52.09    92.89    59.94P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            34   62  +25       2.69    61.65     5.15    80.11     4.23    32.02    36.68    59.69    94.73    69.56P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           33   59  +19       1.58    56.94     0.21    76.33     4.42    22.37    10.48    23.69    76.31    38.42P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.87    93.34     5.85    72.03     4.21     4.06     1.16     3.80    35.90     8.15P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           34   58  +18      -2.30    39.02    -2.69    75.18     4.20    23.10     5.72    15.25    70.25    33.25P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       33   58  +13       7.04    79.37     4.39    75.71     4.38    17.13     7.59    18.31    71.57    29.67P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   57  +23       2.79    62.61    11.27    74.14     4.21    28.25     4.25    12.13    63.18    24.24P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         34   56  +26      -1.87    41.42     7.87    74.53     4.09    33.70     4.74    14.11    68.51    29.50P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              35   52  +11      -2.25    40.09     1.72    67.86     3.86    16.47     0.03     0.15     9.30     2.46P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            33   51  +17      -3.50    34.01     2.84    68.03     4.42    19.98     0.17     0.72    13.42     3.99P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           34   50   +8       2.20    60.42     5.93    64.51     4.13     9.19     0.00     0.03     2.27     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   47   +1      -1.28    44.24    -3.46    63.25     4.48     2.86     0.00     0.02     1.54     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            33   44   +2      -2.55    38.40    -0.16    58.95     4.33     1.91     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       33   42  -11       0.39    52.40    -5.92    54.78     4.30   -14.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           33   41  -10      -0.73    47.21    -5.75    55.02     4.28   -11.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   34   40   -5      -2.43    39.41     1.79    52.59     4.10    -6.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         34   39   -3      -3.34    35.60     3.30    53.37     4.27    -1.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
MK_Dons              34   37  -10      -3.66    33.91    -1.23    48.42     4.07   -13.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.08R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   34  -13      -4.24    31.30    -0.40    46.41     4.09   -14.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.10R    0.00  
Rochdale             33   33  -20      -1.88    42.02    -2.57    46.02     4.35   -23.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.86R    0.00  
Tranmere             32   26  -26      -3.66    32.75    -2.72    35.98     4.18   -36.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.82R    0.07  
Southend             34   16  -48     -14.39     2.63   -18.67    25.37     3.84   -56.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   28.08  
Bolton               32   12  -39      -5.16    25.73   -15.43    21.48     4.10   -50.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   71.85  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2020, Exeter 1 1 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          35   69  +25      10.69    88.41     9.65    88.37     4.50    31.38    65.85    93.39   100.00    95.19P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            36   66  +22       8.61    82.16    10.06    81.75     4.29    25.00     8.57    52.70    99.42    64.29P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         36   65  +19       3.64    65.08     1.05    82.75     4.27    24.97    11.86    62.13    99.70    73.85P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           36   65  +12       8.46    82.31     1.58    80.69     4.23    14.97     4.53    38.42    99.01    53.42P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       35   63  +25       8.33    82.48    15.22    81.11     4.44    29.34     9.12    49.22    99.34    61.81P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      36   58  +15       1.62    57.23     4.72    72.81     4.26    16.59     0.06     2.98    74.52    20.31P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        36   56   +6       7.50    80.12     6.93    69.11     4.18     5.18     0.00     0.35    34.68     6.16P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       36   55  +12      -1.30    44.35     1.95    70.05     4.27    14.03     0.00     0.50    49.57    13.41P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         36   54   +6      -1.95    41.64    -3.56    69.33     4.25     8.43     0.00     0.31    39.49    10.71P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     36   47   +1       3.40    64.91     9.74    58.93     4.16    -1.83     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     35   46   +1      -3.66    34.36    -1.65    60.84     4.38     0.69     0.00     0.00     1.97     0.43P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     36   45   +1      -1.31    44.83     5.60    58.66     4.18     0.82     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    36   45   -7       2.12    60.41     1.98    56.84     4.16    -9.50     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          36   44   -8       0.79    54.36     0.74    55.67     4.11   -10.94     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          35   44  -11      -3.45    35.33   -10.31    58.25     4.49   -12.07     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   34   43   -6      -0.42    48.70    -2.01    58.23     4.59    -7.51     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           36   41  -10      -7.80    19.74    -8.86    54.13     4.24   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       36   40  -10      -9.86    14.48   -10.44    55.29     4.28    -7.68     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.01R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient    35   39   -9      -1.37    44.81     2.78    51.28     4.34   -13.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10R    0.10  
Carlisle         35   39  -16      -4.24    32.07    -8.69    53.67     4.46   -16.63     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.05R    0.05  
Macclesfield     36   36  -12      -2.65    38.48     2.90    46.06     3.93   -17.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.73R    1.73  
Mansfield        35   35   -8     -15.38     4.13   -11.49    50.64     4.49    -7.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21R    0.21  
Morecambe        36   32  -24      -5.19    27.72    -5.42    42.26     4.03   -29.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.35R   12.35  
Stevenage        35   22  -24     -17.47     1.32   -12.46    34.74     4.31   -27.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.53R   85.53  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 2 Notts_County; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             36   70  +31       9.28    84.51    13.92    86.03     4.25    34.46    80.43    99.91    85.49P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     36   65  +17       6.81    76.96     3.69    80.22     4.34    19.27    15.50    95.43    34.31P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            35   58   +4      10.25    87.42     4.22    72.76     4.44     3.66     0.69    48.31     8.57P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             36   57  +16      -4.87    29.80    -2.81    74.02     4.32    20.97     1.42    66.63    22.51P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       36   57  +14       3.91    66.71     8.51    72.96     4.27    17.35     0.50    55.75    12.34P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       35   54  +15      -6.53    23.67    -3.72    73.03     4.51    20.93     1.20    58.01    19.83P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     37   54  +11      -3.50    35.55     0.97    69.08     4.04    15.00     0.01    21.27     5.50P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         37   54   +7       1.89    58.32     5.19    68.03     4.05     9.54     0.00    13.41     2.62P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          37   54   -4       8.88    82.97     4.69    64.07     3.97    -7.49     0.00     2.13     0.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     36   53   +1       2.67    61.67    -0.26    66.69     4.32     0.96     0.01     8.47     1.60P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             36   52   -5       8.65    82.48     4.46    63.46     4.18    -8.47     0.00     1.84     0.21P    0.03R    0.00  
Bromley            37   51   +5      -1.91    42.22     2.12    64.80     4.09     7.12     0.00     3.63     0.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet             33   50   +8      -0.03    50.27     0.86    69.07     4.97     9.81     0.24    23.57     5.70P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay            35   48   -3       4.22    67.70     4.82    60.74     4.54    -6.87     0.00     0.86     0.12P    0.60R    0.00  
Sutton_United      36   46   +3      -3.27    36.35     2.97    61.19     4.28     5.19     0.00     0.60     0.12P    0.28R    0.00  
Aldershot          36   46   -8       3.20    64.70     1.53    57.98     4.14   -10.56     0.00     0.06     0.01P    2.32R    0.00  
Eastleigh          35   45   -8       0.15    51.47    -2.73    57.87     4.39   -11.39     0.00     0.12     0.03P    2.73R    0.00  
Wrexham            36   42   -3      -9.51    14.87    -6.32    56.06     4.25    -2.35     0.00     0.01     0.00P    4.34R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          35   41   -4      -5.66    26.71    -2.32    55.21     4.42    -5.23     0.00     0.01     0.00P    8.38R    0.00  
Maidenhead         36   41  -12       0.42    52.79     1.76    52.70     4.20   -15.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.90R    0.02  
Chesterfield       36   40  -11      -8.03    19.25    -8.45    53.32     4.25   -11.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.71R    0.01  
Ebbsfleet_United   37   36  -23      -9.12    16.05   -13.76    45.77     3.88   -27.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.62R    1.06  
AFC_Fylde          34   32  -18     -13.29     6.21   -15.58    49.07     4.76   -17.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.09R    0.50  
Chorley            37   26  -33      -5.77    25.56    -3.74    33.56     3.59   -40.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   98.41