Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 5 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 March 2020, Everton 1 1 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        28   79  +44      16.28    99.71     3.46   101.20     3.61    58.45    99.98   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         27   57  +39      -4.60    23.49    -4.17    82.22     3.76    57.40     0.02    99.58    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        28   50  +26       3.56    67.87    14.06    67.41     4.19    31.62     0.00     0.39    77.25    91.75    98.94     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          28   45   +8      -2.43    37.58    -5.53    61.69     4.10    12.48     0.00     0.03    11.37    46.58    83.87     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          28   42  +12      -5.02    25.27    -0.64    59.05     4.14    17.01     0.00     0.01     5.18    24.36    68.13     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    28   42   +7       3.66    68.65     7.79    57.34     4.27     9.38     0.00     0.00     1.93    12.87    47.48     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        28   40   +7      -7.99    14.30    -7.58    57.76     4.29    13.04     0.00     0.00     3.06    16.40    54.25     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        27   40   +4       6.45    80.78     9.48    54.13     4.41     2.85     0.00     0.00     0.75     4.21    20.47     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          28   38   -6       5.82    78.42     3.72    49.18     3.96   -10.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     2.05     0.03R    0.00  
Arsenal          27   37   +3      -6.23    20.70    -6.07    53.81     4.37     5.36     0.00     0.00     0.40     3.23    19.30     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          28   37   -5      -0.74    46.65    -2.81    50.37     4.12    -5.64     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.42     4.16     0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   28   36   -7       1.16    56.63    -1.39    47.54     4.04   -10.34     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     1.02     0.18R    0.00  
Southampton      28   34  -16       4.27    72.74    -0.40    45.34     4.07   -20.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.28     1.59R    0.02  
Newcastle        28   32  -17       1.12    57.27    -5.72    43.18     3.96   -21.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     5.31R    0.13  
Brighton         28   28   -8      -2.58    36.89     4.52    37.60     3.85   -14.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.58R    3.40  
West_Ham         28   27  -14      -5.49    23.59    -2.62    39.44     4.16   -16.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.50R    2.16  
Watford          28   27  -16      -3.57    31.75    -2.72    38.06     4.01   -20.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.37R    3.69  
Bournemouth      28   27  -17      -3.99    30.44    -4.20    36.07     3.75   -25.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.20R    7.43  
Aston_Villa      27   25  -18      -1.60    42.29     1.81    34.72     4.08   -27.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.53R   15.66  
Norwich          28   21  -26      -3.25    33.63    -0.97    30.28     3.85   -34.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.69R   67.50  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 2 March 2020, Middlesbrough 2 2 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       36   69  +27       4.11    66.99     3.27    86.76     4.25    33.30    55.87    91.70    99.99    94.45P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    36   68  +24       7.20    78.48     7.32    85.84     4.18    30.18    40.86    88.81    99.99    92.26P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          36   63  +14       5.68    72.70     2.19    77.41     4.32    15.02     2.29    11.08    94.08    32.01P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   36   60  +13       6.58    76.71     6.83    75.33     4.27    15.38     0.48     4.10    87.13    22.80P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       36   57  +26      -4.32    31.58     8.06    74.24     4.25    31.23     0.47     3.74    84.21    30.82P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         36   56   +7       3.80    66.20     2.75    70.83     4.33     8.67     0.02     0.42    52.79    11.36P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    36   54   -2       4.37    68.47    -2.24    67.69     4.30    -2.00     0.00     0.05    22.92     4.17P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       36   53  +10       0.66    52.83     5.65    67.10     4.32    10.58     0.00     0.07    22.47     4.71P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         36   52   +1       0.21    51.25    -2.54    66.02     4.25     1.59     0.00     0.02    13.40     2.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall        36   51   +1       4.51    69.79     4.53    64.55     4.24     0.91     0.00     0.00     7.59     1.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Cardiff         36   51   +0      -0.69    47.36    -3.38    65.10     4.31     0.61     0.00     0.01    10.25     2.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       36   48   +2      -2.24    40.69     0.52    60.89     4.26     0.80     0.00     0.00     1.98     0.41P    0.14R    0.00  
Derby           36   48   -3      -4.49    31.53    -7.69    61.06     4.26    -3.97     0.00     0.00     1.63     0.39P    0.12R    0.00  
QPR             36   47   -6       3.11    63.82     3.27    59.24     4.24    -8.56     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.09P    0.91R    0.03  
Birmingham      36   47   -7       1.96    58.88    -0.51    59.84     4.23    -8.49     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.12P    0.62R    0.00  
Reading         36   45   +2      -0.85    46.93     6.77    58.24     4.26     1.39     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.07P    1.33R    0.03  
Huddersfield    36   42  -11      -1.04    46.29    -1.60    53.47     4.13   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    14.88R    1.18  
Hull            36   41  -10      -4.75    30.70    -3.86    54.01     4.26   -11.33     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    13.04R    1.12  
Wigan           36   40  -12      -2.99    37.48    -3.03    53.30     4.24   -12.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   17.34R    1.87  
Charlton        36   39   -9      -3.76    34.39     0.71    50.93     4.17   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.40R    3.61  
Stoke           36   39  -10      -6.75    22.90    -4.97    51.63     4.16   -11.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.06R    3.00  
Middlesbrough   36   38  -11     -10.27    12.50   -10.15    51.67     4.22   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.54R    2.66  
Barnsley        36   34  -18      -7.16    21.91    -5.26    45.42     4.17   -21.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.15R   37.36  
Luton           36   34  -28      -2.75    38.78    -6.65    44.86     4.18   -32.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.49R   49.12  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2020, Ipswich 0 1 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             33   64  +17      13.34    94.56     8.76    79.97     4.46    18.43    29.37    52.20    92.68    59.97P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            34   62  +25       2.82    62.35     5.30    80.10     4.20    32.05    36.60    59.40    94.66    69.49P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           33   59  +19       1.71    57.98     0.39    76.33     4.42    22.35    10.32    23.62    75.98    37.89P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.78    93.26     5.70    72.04     4.22     4.10     1.19     3.86    35.74     8.30P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           34   58  +18      -2.38    38.72    -2.74    75.23     4.17    23.15     5.74    15.41    70.40    33.38P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       33   58  +13       6.92    79.27     4.28    75.74     4.38    17.15     7.49    18.46    71.53    29.74P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   57  +23       2.57    61.63    10.96    74.21     4.19    28.37     4.51    12.47    63.46    24.53P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         34   56  +26      -1.71    41.95     8.12    74.50     4.07    33.64     4.62    13.65    68.57    28.99P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              35   52  +11      -2.57    38.67     1.26    67.96     3.83    16.59     0.02     0.16     9.65     2.80P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            33   51  +17      -3.51    33.96     2.82    68.04     4.41    20.00     0.13     0.73    13.41     4.09P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           34   50   +8       2.09    59.78     5.74    64.49     4.14     9.19     0.01     0.03     2.31     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   47   +1      -1.05    45.25    -3.19    63.22     4.46     2.79     0.00     0.01     1.50     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            33   44   +2      -2.27    39.57     0.23    58.89     4.35     1.81     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       33   42  -11       0.52    53.34    -5.74    54.69     4.27   -14.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           33   41  -10      -0.81    46.59    -5.80    55.03     4.25   -11.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   34   40   -5      -2.18    40.48     2.09    52.50     4.09    -6.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         34   39   -3      -3.47    34.89     3.09    53.38     4.26    -1.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
MK_Dons              34   37  -10      -3.65    33.83    -1.24    48.40     4.08   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.07R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   34  -13      -4.22    31.41    -0.33    46.39     4.04   -14.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.12R    0.00  
Rochdale             33   33  -20      -2.03    41.03    -2.80    46.05     4.32   -23.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.93R    0.00  
Tranmere             32   26  -26      -3.87    32.02    -3.09    36.05     4.21   -36.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.73R    0.05  
Southend             34   16  -48     -14.34     2.68   -18.58    25.37     3.84   -56.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   28.03  
Bolton               32   12  -39      -5.01    26.39   -15.23    21.45     4.08   -50.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   71.92  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2020, Exeter 1 1 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          35   69  +25      10.77    88.78     9.82    88.31     4.49    31.32    65.36    93.29    99.99    95.06P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            36   66  +22       8.50    82.38     9.95    81.79     4.28    25.06     8.67    52.91    99.40    64.62P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         36   65  +19       3.40    64.20     0.68    82.84     4.29    25.08    12.30    63.09    99.70    74.47P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           36   65  +12       8.37    81.99     1.43    80.69     4.25    14.98     4.73    38.17    98.93    53.60P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       35   63  +25       8.42    82.78    15.35    81.02     4.44    29.24     8.84    48.49    99.29    61.61P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      36   58  +15       1.52    56.46     4.58    72.80     4.28    16.61     0.10     2.93    74.55    19.98P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        36   56   +6       7.50    79.86     6.98    69.13     4.19     5.19     0.00     0.32    34.68     6.19P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       36   55  +12      -1.22    44.66     2.02    70.02     4.29    13.98     0.00     0.51    49.24    13.01P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         36   54   +6      -1.90    41.99    -3.50    69.32     4.26     8.41     0.00     0.30    39.83    10.55P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     36   47   +1       3.09    63.84     9.23    58.97     4.15    -1.75     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     35   46   +1      -3.74    33.89    -1.73    60.87     4.39     0.71     0.00     0.00     2.14     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     36   45   +1      -1.24    45.08     5.67    58.66     4.20     0.83     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    36   45   -7       2.21    60.94     2.14    56.80     4.14    -9.54     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          36   44   -8       1.00    55.34     1.07    55.64     4.12   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          35   44  -11      -3.29    36.06   -10.07    58.18     4.50   -12.16     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   34   43   -6      -0.47    48.43    -2.10    58.28     4.61    -7.41     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           36   41  -10      -7.59    20.15    -8.60    54.11     4.23   -10.98     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.02R    0.02  
Scunthorpe       36   40  -10      -9.87    14.25   -10.46    55.31     4.30    -7.68     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.02R    0.02  
Leyton_Orient    35   39   -9      -1.31    44.98     2.87    51.27     4.34   -13.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.09R    0.09  
Carlisle         35   39  -16      -4.16    32.37    -8.61    53.65     4.47   -16.69     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.04R    0.04  
Macclesfield     36   36  -12      -2.57    38.85     2.96    46.07     3.94   -17.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.77R    1.77  
Mansfield        35   35   -8     -15.64     3.62   -11.80    50.68     4.50    -7.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22R    0.22  
Morecambe        36   32  -24      -5.24    27.48    -5.47    42.31     4.02   -29.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.03R   12.03  
Stevenage        35   22  -24     -17.47     1.52   -12.43    34.74     4.32   -27.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.81R   85.81  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 2 Notts_County; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             36   70  +31       9.30    84.62    14.01    86.01     4.28    34.44    80.15    99.87    85.38P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     36   65  +17       6.54    76.02     3.28    80.26     4.33    19.33    15.74    95.66    34.76P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            35   58   +4      10.42    87.83     4.46    72.73     4.45     3.58     0.68    48.12     8.23P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             36   57  +16      -4.87    30.08    -2.93    74.05     4.32    21.03     1.40    66.86    22.53P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       36   57  +14       4.17    67.69     8.90    72.89     4.27    17.23     0.59    54.90    11.91P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       35   54  +15      -6.53    23.50    -3.75    73.01     4.49    20.90     1.19    58.35    20.00P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     37   54  +11      -3.38    35.94     1.18    69.04     4.03    14.95     0.03    20.94     5.59P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         37   54   +7       1.93    58.28     5.24    68.06     4.04     9.62     0.01    13.70     2.60P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          37   54   -4       8.78    82.38     4.61    64.05     3.95    -7.54     0.00     1.98     0.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     36   53   +1       2.52    61.19    -0.52    66.73     4.33     1.03     0.01     8.42     1.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking             36   52   -5       8.52    81.86     4.19    63.52     4.23    -8.41     0.00     2.02     0.30P    0.05R    0.00  
Bromley            37   51   +5      -1.79    42.90     2.28    64.78     4.07     7.05     0.00     3.46     0.66P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet             33   50   +8      -0.11    49.72     0.73    69.06     5.01     9.81     0.20    24.12     5.91P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay            35   48   -3       4.39    68.48     5.09    60.68     4.55    -6.99     0.00     0.84     0.13P    0.54R    0.00  
Sutton_United      36   46   +3      -3.21    36.54     3.06    61.19     4.30     5.20     0.00     0.56     0.12P    0.34R    0.00  
Aldershot          36   46   -8       3.26    64.89     1.66    57.93     4.14   -10.61     0.00     0.05     0.02P    2.41R    0.00  
Eastleigh          35   45   -8       0.01    50.67    -2.96    57.91     4.39   -11.32     0.00     0.12     0.02P    2.58R    0.00  
Wrexham            36   42   -3      -9.51    14.86    -6.36    56.08     4.24    -2.33     0.00     0.01     0.00P    4.50R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          35   41   -4      -5.72    26.25    -2.37    55.23     4.44    -5.19     0.00     0.01     0.01P    8.35R    0.00  
Maidenhead         36   41  -12       0.53    53.17     1.96    52.71     4.19   -15.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.70R    0.02  
Chesterfield       36   40  -11      -8.14    18.95    -8.58    53.31     4.25   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.66R    0.02  
Ebbsfleet_United   37   36  -23      -9.14    16.05   -13.74    45.80     3.91   -27.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.26R    1.09  
AFC_Fylde          34   32  -18     -13.15     6.57   -15.37    49.03     4.75   -17.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.61R    0.57  
Chorley            37   26  -33      -5.94    25.00    -4.04    33.63     3.61   -40.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   98.29