Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 4 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 March 2020, Everton 1 1 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        28   79  +44      16.30    99.68     3.53   101.19     3.62    58.40    99.98   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         27   57  +39      -4.60    23.25    -4.07    82.24     3.76    57.45     0.02    99.61    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        28   50  +26       3.73    68.42    14.31    67.37     4.21    31.53     0.00     0.37    77.25    91.91    98.89     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          28   45   +8      -2.21    38.47    -5.16    61.61     4.13    12.34     0.00     0.01    11.38    46.23    83.32     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          28   42  +12      -5.03    25.48    -0.65    59.04     4.11    16.99     0.00     0.00     5.21    24.70    68.18     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    28   42   +7       3.69    68.85     7.80    57.31     4.26     9.36     0.00     0.00     2.02    12.80    47.52     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        28   40   +7      -7.84    15.12    -7.41    57.71     4.30    13.01     0.00     0.00     2.95    16.26    54.70     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        27   40   +4       6.40    80.90     9.40    54.12     4.40     2.83     0.00     0.00     0.70     4.25    20.32     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          28   38   -6       5.66    77.84     3.55    49.23     3.97   -10.62     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10     2.03     0.03R    0.00  
Arsenal          27   37   +3      -6.00    21.61    -5.71    53.74     4.38     5.22     0.00     0.00     0.46     3.22    19.22     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          28   37   -5      -0.91    46.00    -3.11    50.46     4.14    -5.52     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.43     4.47     0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   28   36   -7       1.18    56.77    -1.39    47.57     4.04   -10.28     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     1.08     0.18R    0.00  
Southampton      28   34  -16       4.14    71.62    -0.58    45.37     4.08   -20.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24     1.61R    0.03  
Newcastle        28   32  -17       1.18    57.26    -5.73    43.18     3.95   -21.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     5.24R    0.15  
Brighton         28   28   -8      -2.71    36.05     4.29    37.57     3.84   -14.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.99R    3.51  
West_Ham         28   27  -14      -5.54    23.24    -2.71    39.47     4.17   -16.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.19R    2.23  
Watford          28   27  -16      -3.58    31.91    -2.69    38.05     4.00   -20.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.69R    3.65  
Bournemouth      28   27  -17      -4.04    30.42    -4.28    36.09     3.75   -25.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.38R    7.26  
Aston_Villa      27   25  -18      -1.64    42.10     1.74    34.73     4.11   -27.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.07R   16.09  
Norwich          28   21  -26      -3.30    33.10    -1.14    30.33     3.85   -34.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.59R   67.06  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 2 March 2020, Middlesbrough 2 2 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       36   69  +27       4.09    66.86     3.24    86.74     4.25    33.28    55.79    91.74    99.99    94.64P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    36   68  +24       7.33    78.81     7.48    85.81     4.17    30.16    40.80    88.57    99.99    92.22P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          36   63  +14       5.80    72.91     2.36    77.39     4.32    14.96     2.35    11.21    94.04    31.70P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   36   60  +13       6.47    76.20     6.65    75.36     4.29    15.41     0.53     4.25    87.21    22.63P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       36   57  +26      -4.45    31.08     7.86    74.25     4.24    31.28     0.49     3.65    84.75    30.94P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         36   56   +7       3.68    65.74     2.56    70.86     4.31     8.70     0.02     0.40    52.56    11.54P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    36   54   -2       4.30    67.75    -2.32    67.71     4.27    -1.97     0.00     0.06    22.58     4.31P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       36   53  +10       0.54    52.57     5.44    67.15     4.31    10.64     0.00     0.07    22.74     4.78P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         36   52   +1       0.46    52.08    -2.17    65.97     4.25     1.53     0.00     0.02    12.96     2.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall        36   51   +1       4.34    69.30     4.33    64.58     4.23     0.96     0.00     0.00     7.51     1.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Cardiff         36   51   +0      -0.88    46.40    -3.71    65.15     4.34     0.69     0.00     0.00    10.60     2.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       36   48   +2      -2.38    40.05     0.36    60.92     4.22     0.83     0.00     0.00     1.84     0.42P    0.12R    0.00  
Derby           36   48   -3      -4.37    32.06    -7.50    60.95     4.25    -4.12     0.00     0.00     1.63     0.34P    0.17R    0.00  
QPR             36   47   -6       3.12    64.07     3.32    59.28     4.26    -8.50     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.08P    0.89R    0.01  
Birmingham      36   47   -7       2.03    59.22    -0.37    59.82     4.24    -8.48     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.08P    0.65R    0.00  
Reading         36   45   +2      -0.80    46.85     6.82    58.19     4.22     1.36     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.07P    1.30R    0.03  
Huddersfield    36   42  -11      -1.11    45.91    -1.69    53.49     4.13   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.81R    1.15  
Hull            36   41  -10      -4.70    30.99    -3.77    53.99     4.27   -11.34     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.29R    1.12  
Wigan           36   40  -12      -2.84    38.12    -2.82    53.26     4.24   -12.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   17.56R    1.90  
Charlton        36   39   -9      -3.74    34.78     0.79    50.89     4.14   -11.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.79R    3.64  
Stoke           36   39  -10      -6.71    22.94    -4.85    51.65     4.16   -11.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.52R    2.95  
Middlesbrough   36   38  -11     -10.18    12.32   -10.09    51.71     4.22   -10.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.19R    2.61  
Barnsley        36   34  -18      -7.18    21.91    -5.31    45.43     4.19   -21.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.79R   37.23  
Luton           36   34  -28      -2.74    39.22    -6.61    44.83     4.18   -32.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.92R   49.36  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2020, Ipswich 0 1 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             33   64  +17      13.11    94.20     8.40    80.06     4.44    18.55    30.32    53.20    93.14    61.18P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            34   62  +25       2.99    62.91     5.57    80.03     4.21    31.94    35.50    58.40    94.52    68.58P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           33   59  +19       1.60    57.26     0.22    76.36     4.44    22.41    10.50    24.16    76.31    38.58P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      13.04    93.83     6.02    72.01     4.21     4.03     1.16     3.74    35.48     8.21P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           34   58  +18      -2.25    39.37    -2.56    75.19     4.21    23.10     5.72    15.36    70.09    32.78P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       33   58  +13       6.91    79.08     4.17    75.75     4.37    17.17     7.53    18.28    71.70    29.59P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   57  +23       2.63    61.83    11.02    74.18     4.19    28.31     4.33    12.20    63.55    24.33P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         34   56  +26      -1.85    41.32     7.93    74.50     4.10    33.67     4.75    13.79    68.22    29.22P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              35   52  +11      -2.40    39.48     1.47    67.94     3.85    16.60     0.02     0.17     9.55     2.65P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            33   51  +17      -3.48    33.95     2.82    67.99     4.43    19.92     0.16     0.66    13.58     4.15P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           34   50   +8       2.10    59.87     5.80    64.50     4.14     9.18     0.01     0.02     2.36     0.45P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   47   +1      -0.97    45.69    -3.08    63.20     4.45     2.75     0.00     0.01     1.38     0.26P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            33   44   +2      -2.47    38.74    -0.04    58.93     4.34     1.87     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       33   42  -11       0.41    52.56    -5.86    54.76     4.29   -14.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           33   41  -10      -0.61    47.50    -5.56    54.94     4.27   -11.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   34   40   -5      -2.36    39.52     1.85    52.54     4.14    -6.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         34   39   -3      -3.23    35.85     3.49    53.31     4.31    -2.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
MK_Dons              34   37  -10      -3.62    34.08    -1.13    48.41     4.09   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.05R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   34  -13      -4.30    30.59    -0.52    46.38     4.05   -14.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.29R    0.00  
Rochdale             33   33  -20      -2.04    41.00    -2.77    46.05     4.34   -23.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.90R    0.00  
Tranmere             32   26  -26      -3.86    32.02    -3.01    36.04     4.20   -36.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.61R    0.08  
Southend             34   16  -48     -14.40     2.72   -18.66    25.40     3.87   -56.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   28.40  
Bolton               32   12  -39      -5.24    25.28   -15.58    21.55     4.10   -50.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   71.52  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2020, Exeter 1 1 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          35   69  +25      10.80    88.66     9.81    88.32     4.48    31.30    65.22    93.45   100.00    95.29P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            36   66  +22       8.77    82.88    10.29    81.73     4.29    24.96     8.58    52.81    99.35    64.23P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         36   65  +19       3.59    64.76     0.98    82.79     4.29    25.03    12.42    62.30    99.70    73.68P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           36   65  +12       8.36    81.92     1.42    80.70     4.22    14.97     4.64    38.11    99.07    53.49P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       35   63  +25       8.31    82.35    15.16    81.06     4.46    29.27     9.05    49.33    99.31    61.81P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      36   58  +15       1.62    57.11     4.70    72.81     4.26    16.60     0.08     2.71    74.44    20.18P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        36   56   +6       7.52    79.92     7.00    69.13     4.18     5.21     0.01     0.34    34.38     6.18P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       36   55  +12      -1.35    44.18     1.80    70.12     4.30    14.12     0.00     0.59    50.17    13.56P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         36   54   +6      -1.85    42.01    -3.45    69.32     4.26     8.39     0.00     0.37    39.25    10.76P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     36   47   +1       3.04    63.48     9.20    59.01     4.18    -1.67     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     35   46   +1      -3.66    34.53    -1.60    60.85     4.39     0.67     0.00     0.00     2.06     0.45P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     36   45   +1      -1.24    45.32     5.73    58.62     4.19     0.75     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    36   45   -7       1.96    59.61     1.77    56.91     4.16    -9.42     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          36   44   -8       0.95    54.79     0.97    55.64     4.13   -10.98     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          35   44  -11      -3.31    36.10   -10.02    58.19     4.48   -12.15     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   34   43   -6      -0.65    47.65    -2.32    58.30     4.57    -7.42     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           36   41  -10      -7.60    20.45    -8.57    54.06     4.20   -11.03     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       36   40  -10      -9.77    14.44   -10.30    55.29     4.31    -7.71     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.01R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient    35   39   -9      -1.36    45.00     2.84    51.22     4.36   -13.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.11  
Carlisle         35   39  -16      -4.26    31.64    -8.72    53.68     4.46   -16.65     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.05R    0.05  
Macclesfield     36   36  -12      -2.53    39.29     3.03    46.04     3.93   -17.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.84R    1.84  
Mansfield        35   35   -8     -15.58     3.78   -11.71    50.70     4.52    -7.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24R    0.24  
Morecambe        36   32  -24      -5.22    27.12    -5.50    42.29     4.02   -29.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.45R   12.45  
Stevenage        35   22  -24     -17.50     1.41   -12.49    34.76     4.36   -27.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.29R   85.29  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 March 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 2 Notts_County; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             36   70  +31       9.49    84.86    14.27    85.94     4.26    34.33    80.22    99.89    85.19P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     36   65  +17       6.73    76.49     3.51    80.24     4.29    19.30    15.70    95.62    34.84P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            35   58   +4      10.44    87.91     4.48    72.72     4.46     3.61     0.73    48.15     8.42P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             36   57  +16      -4.89    29.77    -2.93    74.04     4.30    21.00     1.39    66.86    22.70P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       36   57  +14       3.95    66.84     8.50    72.98     4.28    17.37     0.55    55.78    11.91P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       35   54  +15      -6.56    23.58    -3.79    73.09     4.51    21.01     1.17    58.43    20.32P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     37   54  +11      -3.33    36.07     1.25    68.99     4.02    14.86     0.02    20.31     5.07P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         37   54   +7       1.92    58.47     5.24    68.06     4.02     9.59     0.01    13.37     2.65P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          37   54   -4       8.71    82.18     4.45    64.08     3.98    -7.47     0.00     2.14     0.29P    0.01R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     36   53   +1       2.52    61.37    -0.50    66.68     4.33     0.98     0.01     8.32     1.52P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking             36   52   -5       8.48    81.68     4.16    63.55     4.23    -8.36     0.00     2.06     0.27P    0.04R    0.00  
Bromley            37   51   +5      -1.87    42.45     2.17    64.77     4.06     7.05     0.00     3.42     0.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet             33   50   +8      -0.14    49.76     0.70    69.09     5.00     9.83     0.21    24.05     5.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Torquay            35   48   -3       4.49    68.98     5.27    60.65     4.53    -7.01     0.00     0.76     0.13P    0.50R    0.00  
Sutton_United      36   46   +3      -3.49    35.23     2.67    61.27     4.31     5.32     0.00     0.65     0.14P    0.24R    0.00  
Aldershot          36   46   -8       3.23    64.81     1.61    57.95     4.15   -10.59     0.00     0.06     0.01P    2.37R    0.00  
Eastleigh          35   45   -8       0.08    50.99    -2.83    57.85     4.36   -11.39     0.00     0.10     0.02P    2.55R    0.00  
Wrexham            36   42   -3      -9.35    15.03    -6.09    56.05     4.26    -2.38     0.00     0.01     0.00     4.59R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          35   41   -4      -5.70    26.41    -2.38    55.23     4.45    -5.18     0.00     0.02     0.00P    8.54R    0.00  
Maidenhead         36   41  -12       0.49    53.03     1.93    52.73     4.19   -15.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.54R    0.02  
Chesterfield       36   40  -11      -8.04    19.27    -8.46    53.32     4.25   -11.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.69R    0.01  
Ebbsfleet_United   37   36  -23      -9.13    15.87   -13.78    45.76     3.87   -27.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.61R    1.04  
AFC_Fylde          34   32  -18     -13.34     6.40   -15.69    49.06     4.76   -17.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.31R    0.53  
Chorley            37   26  -33      -5.77    25.37    -3.76    33.58     3.62   -40.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   98.39