Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 2 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 March 2020, Everton 1 1 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        28   79  +44      16.20    99.73     3.29   101.22     3.64    58.47    99.97   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         27   57  +39      -4.57    23.30    -4.09    82.22     3.75    57.42     0.03    99.63    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        28   50  +26       3.64    68.01    14.14    67.43     4.21    31.62     0.00     0.35    77.32    91.97    98.94     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          28   45   +8      -2.24    38.30    -5.24    61.65     4.11    12.41     0.00     0.01    11.39    46.58    83.58     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          28   42  +12      -5.08    25.11    -0.71    59.05     4.12    17.04     0.00     0.00     5.18    24.57    67.85     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    28   42   +7       3.67    68.77     7.83    57.37     4.29     9.40     0.00     0.00     1.99    13.03    48.01     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        28   40   +7      -8.04    14.07    -7.68    57.76     4.28    13.07     0.00     0.00     3.04    16.05    54.49     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        27   40   +4       6.46    81.13     9.54    54.07     4.40     2.78     0.00     0.00     0.69     4.12    20.21     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          28   38   -6       5.68    78.07     3.53    49.26     3.95   -10.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.14     2.11     0.03R    0.00  
Arsenal          27   37   +3      -6.24    20.90    -6.10    53.83     4.37     5.35     0.00     0.00     0.37     3.06    19.33     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          28   37   -5      -0.69    46.77    -2.73    50.37     4.13    -5.64     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.40     4.14     0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   28   36   -7       1.04    56.20    -1.57    47.58     4.04   -10.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.05     0.20R    0.00  
Southampton      28   34  -16       4.30    72.43    -0.29    45.32     4.09   -20.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24     1.49R    0.02  
Newcastle        28   32  -17       1.12    57.12    -5.83    43.21     3.93   -21.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     5.20R    0.15  
Brighton         28   28   -8      -2.60    36.93     4.53    37.52     3.86   -14.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.35R    3.54  
West_Ham         28   27  -14      -5.30    24.18    -2.29    39.37     4.16   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.94R    2.17  
Watford          28   27  -16      -3.58    31.85    -2.67    38.03     3.98   -20.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.48R    3.77  
Bournemouth      28   27  -17      -3.89    30.77    -4.08    36.06     3.76   -26.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.23R    7.63  
Aston_Villa      27   25  -18      -1.71    41.81     1.54    34.75     4.12   -27.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.49R   15.48  
Norwich          28   21  -26      -3.30    33.13    -1.13    30.33     3.85   -34.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.58R   67.23  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 2 March 2020, Middlesbrough 2 2 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       36   69  +27       4.15    67.21     3.39    86.78     4.24    33.33    56.20    91.98    99.99    94.55P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    36   68  +24       7.23    78.64     7.39    85.79     4.18    30.11    40.55    88.67    99.98    92.02P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          36   63  +14       5.92    73.44     2.58    77.41     4.32    15.02     2.35    11.24    94.31    31.92P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   36   60  +13       6.64    76.64     6.89    75.28     4.24    15.30     0.46     4.00    87.02    22.42P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       36   57  +26      -4.44    31.00     7.89    74.21     4.26    31.22     0.42     3.53    84.08    30.80P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         36   56   +7       3.60    65.50     2.44    70.88     4.30     8.72     0.02     0.41    53.55    12.02P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    36   54   -2       4.29    68.16    -2.34    67.70     4.30    -1.98     0.00     0.07    22.70     4.16P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       36   53  +10       0.56    52.74     5.50    67.12     4.31    10.62     0.00     0.08    22.47     4.86P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         36   52   +1       0.42    52.17    -2.26    65.98     4.25     1.54     0.00     0.02    13.22     2.86P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall        36   51   +1       4.64    70.05     4.73    64.50     4.25     0.85     0.00     0.00     7.48     1.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Cardiff         36   51   +0      -0.69    47.23    -3.41    65.05     4.35     0.55     0.00     0.01    10.20     2.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       36   48   +2      -2.23    40.76     0.52    60.87     4.21     0.78     0.00     0.00     1.75     0.39P    0.13R    0.00  
Derby           36   48   -3      -4.35    31.95    -7.46    61.04     4.26    -4.03     0.00     0.00     1.69     0.34P    0.12R    0.00  
QPR             36   47   -6       3.05    63.64     3.17    59.29     4.25    -8.49     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.07P    0.99R    0.01  
Birmingham      36   47   -7       2.04    59.43    -0.35    59.81     4.20    -8.50     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.10P    0.57R    0.01  
Reading         36   45   +2      -0.88    46.62     6.79    58.18     4.25     1.34     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.04P    1.32R    0.05  
Huddersfield    36   42  -11      -1.15    45.63    -1.78    53.55     4.14   -14.13     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   14.60R    1.14  
Hull            36   41  -10      -4.66    31.02    -3.73    53.96     4.25   -11.38     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    13.39R    1.15  
Wigan           36   40  -12      -2.85    38.06    -2.81    53.24     4.24   -12.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.77R    1.88  
Charlton        36   39   -9      -3.80    34.61     0.61    50.94     4.19   -11.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.79R    3.80  
Stoke           36   39  -10      -6.87    22.56    -5.06    51.70     4.18   -11.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.44R    2.98  
Middlesbrough   36   38  -11     -10.08    12.59    -9.91    51.65     4.23   -10.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.72R    2.74  
Barnsley        36   34  -18      -7.57    20.65    -5.89    45.53     4.17   -21.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.44R   36.32  
Luton           36   34  -28      -2.85    38.53    -6.88    44.86     4.18   -32.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.71R   49.92  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 March 2020, Coventry 1 0 Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             33   64  +17      13.05    94.04     8.35    79.99     4.43    18.46    30.73    54.59    92.95    62.14P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            34   62  +25       2.84    62.19     5.33    80.08     4.23    32.01    37.35    60.83    94.79    70.16P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           33   59  +19       1.74    57.76     0.48    76.31     4.43    22.32    10.80    24.78    76.55    38.94P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.83    93.20     5.76    72.04     4.22     4.07     1.29     4.31    36.65     8.84P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           34   58  +18      -2.14    39.37    -2.47    75.17     4.20    23.10     6.12    16.15    70.82    33.70P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   57  +23       2.78    62.74    11.29    74.17     4.16    28.31     4.32    12.47    64.25    24.69P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         34   56  +26      -1.81    41.63     8.01    74.51     4.10    33.67     5.14    14.79    69.53    30.18P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       32   55  +12       5.45    74.14     3.50    73.66     4.57    15.56     3.85    10.16    54.22    19.58P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              34   52  +12      -1.37    43.78     1.98    69.73     4.10    18.20     0.23     1.16    22.18     6.69P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            33   51  +17      -3.48    33.95     2.86    68.00     4.41    19.94     0.16     0.72    14.02     4.21P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           34   50   +8       2.12    59.91     5.73    64.54     4.12     9.23     0.00     0.03     2.44     0.53P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   47   +1      -1.12    45.04    -3.29    63.19     4.44     2.75     0.00     0.01     1.47     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            33   44   +2      -2.36    39.29     0.10    58.95     4.36     1.90     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       33   42  -11       0.37    52.37    -5.92    54.75     4.27   -14.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           33   41  -10      -0.75    47.16    -5.71    54.99     4.27   -11.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   34   40   -5      -2.31    39.74     1.96    52.54     4.11    -6.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         34   39   -3      -3.46    35.01     3.11    53.39     4.27    -1.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
MK_Dons              34   37  -10      -3.77    33.61    -1.42    48.47     4.10   -13.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.08R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   34  -13      -4.36    30.66    -0.48    46.42     4.06   -14.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.94R    0.00  
Rochdale             33   33  -20      -1.96    41.41    -2.67    46.04     4.32   -23.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.92R    0.00  
Tranmere             32   26  -26      -3.71    32.66    -2.66    35.98     4.18   -36.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.90R    0.08  
Southend             34   16  -48     -14.21     2.74   -18.35    25.38     3.82   -56.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   28.13  
Bolton               32   12  -39      -5.19    25.53   -15.46    21.48     4.10   -50.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   71.79  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 February 2020, Bradford 2 1 Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          34   66  +23      10.09    87.56     9.21    87.03     4.74    29.84    56.55    89.32    99.98    92.18P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            35   65  +22       8.91    83.66     9.99    81.84     4.51    24.57    12.49    55.90    99.21    66.29P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           35   64  +12       8.79    83.42     1.52    81.34     4.50    15.35     9.43    47.31    99.12    60.08P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       35   63  +25       8.54    82.89    15.50    80.92     4.46    29.11    10.68    49.83    99.20    62.03P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         35   62  +16       3.17    63.54    -0.18    81.60     4.52    22.64    10.70    52.97    99.16    66.92P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      36   58  +15       1.69    57.41     4.80    72.82     4.26    16.61     0.13     3.28    74.47    20.88P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        36   56   +6       7.36    79.44     6.77    69.16     4.19     5.24     0.00     0.41    34.78     6.39P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       36   55  +12      -1.29    44.35     1.95    70.04     4.29    14.01     0.01     0.63    49.63    13.33P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         36   54   +6      -1.87    41.99    -3.50    69.35     4.26     8.42     0.00     0.35    39.79    11.02P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     36   47   +1       3.20    64.08     9.38    58.99     4.16    -1.74     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     35   46   +1      -3.75    33.93    -1.75    60.94     4.38     0.81     0.00     0.00     2.14     0.44P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     36   45   +1      -1.21    45.44     5.75    58.67     4.20     0.80     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    36   45   -7       2.16    60.48     2.06    56.80     4.16    -9.56     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          35   44   -5       0.74    54.05     1.57    56.66     4.32    -8.55     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          35   44  -11      -3.40    35.67   -10.25    58.30     4.49   -11.98     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   34   43   -6      -0.49    48.26    -2.13    58.29     4.60    -7.42     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           36   41  -10      -7.56    20.45    -8.57    54.10     4.25   -10.98     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       35   40   -8      -9.47    15.15    -9.92    56.31     4.50    -6.28     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    0.01R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient    35   39   -9      -1.44    44.29     2.65    51.30     4.34   -13.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.08  
Carlisle         35   39  -16      -4.21    32.37    -8.67    53.61     4.46   -16.73     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.04R    0.04  
Macclesfield     36   36  -12      -2.42    40.04     3.17    46.05     3.93   -17.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.94R    1.94  
Mansfield        35   35   -8     -15.50     3.94   -11.59    50.67     4.52    -7.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19R    0.19  
Morecambe        36   32  -24      -5.23    27.55    -5.51    42.29     4.02   -29.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.17R   12.17  
Stevenage        35   22  -24     -17.38     1.47   -12.25    34.71     4.32   -27.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.57R   85.57  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 February 2020, Barrow 2 1 Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             36   70  +31       9.27    84.47    13.96    85.99     4.27    34.41    84.85    99.93    88.86P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     35   62  +16       5.59    72.66     3.35    78.59     4.55    18.27    10.73    90.90    29.50P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             36   57  +16      -4.84    29.70    -2.87    74.05     4.28    21.00     1.60    69.16    23.29P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       35   56  +14       4.32    68.24     8.57    73.06     4.50    17.01     0.88    58.36    13.10P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            34   55   +3       9.16    85.45     4.00    71.08     4.67     2.57     0.48    36.42     6.13P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     36   54  +12      -2.22    40.43     1.87    70.89     4.27    16.62     0.21    39.51    10.45P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          37   54   -4       8.68    82.00     4.40    64.12     3.96    -7.40     0.00     2.43     0.35P    0.02R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     36   53   +1       2.51    61.42    -0.54    66.67     4.31     0.96     0.01     9.20     1.72P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking             36   52   -5       8.64    82.39     4.44    63.51     4.23    -8.44     0.00     2.29     0.32P    0.05R    0.00  
Notts_County       34   51  +14      -7.72    19.53    -4.10    71.54     4.76    20.12     0.84    47.69    16.30P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         36   51   +6       0.49    52.45     4.56    65.99     4.25     7.93     0.00     7.65     1.53P    0.01R    0.00  
Bromley            37   51   +5      -1.90    42.02     2.12    64.79     4.07     7.09     0.00     3.98     0.82P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet             32   49   +8       0.58    52.80     1.18    69.51     5.18     9.92     0.40    29.34     7.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Torquay            35   48   -3       4.23    67.74     4.84    60.73     4.57    -6.88     0.00     0.89     0.14P    0.76R    0.00  
Sutton_United      35   46   +4      -2.31    40.08     3.44    62.61     4.53     6.29     0.00     2.07     0.42P    0.21R    0.00  
Aldershot          36   46   -8       3.16    64.25     1.51    57.93     4.14   -10.60     0.00     0.06     0.01P    3.01R    0.00  
Wrexham            36   42   -3      -9.45    15.03    -6.22    56.12     4.25    -2.29     0.00     0.02     0.00P    5.25R    0.00  
Eastleigh          34   42   -9      -1.03    46.05    -3.05    56.43     4.63   -12.11     0.00     0.08     0.01P    7.18R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          35   41   -4      -5.56    26.83    -2.19    55.21     4.42    -5.18     0.00     0.02     0.00P    9.70R    0.00  
Maidenhead         36   41  -12       0.43    52.63     1.81    52.68     4.20   -15.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.89R    0.04  
Chesterfield       35   40  -10      -7.18    21.55    -8.42    54.74     4.51   -10.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.73R    0.03  
Ebbsfleet_United   37   36  -23      -9.02    16.51   -13.65    45.79     3.88   -27.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.02R    2.21  
AFC_Fylde          33   32  -17     -12.25     7.67   -15.10    50.28     4.99   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.21R    0.76  
Chorley            36   26  -32      -5.06    27.92    -3.93    34.77     3.87   -39.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.95R   96.94