Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 1 March 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 March 2020, Everton 1 1 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        28   79  +44      16.25    99.71     3.42   101.23     3.62    58.49    99.98   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         27   57  +39      -4.53    23.72    -3.93    82.22     3.77    57.38     0.02    99.57    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        28   50  +26       3.52    67.93    13.99    67.43     4.19    31.65     0.00     0.39    77.40    92.00    99.02     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          28   45   +8      -2.25    38.34    -5.32    61.61     4.12    12.34     0.00     0.02    11.17    46.06    83.47     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          28   42  +12      -5.18    24.59    -0.89    59.06     4.14    17.04     0.00     0.01     5.23    24.64    68.20     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    28   42   +7       3.83    69.59     8.05    57.31     4.29     9.34     0.00     0.00     2.00    12.87    47.31     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        28   40   +7      -7.97    14.67    -7.61    57.75     4.28    13.07     0.00     0.00     3.05    16.46    54.80     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        27   40   +4       6.63    81.60     9.73    54.06     4.39     2.76     0.00     0.00     0.72     4.23    19.96     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          28   38   -6       5.83    78.16     3.77    49.21     3.96   -10.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     2.04     0.04R    0.00  
Arsenal          27   37   +3      -6.24    20.83    -6.05    53.82     4.37     5.32     0.00     0.00     0.42     3.16    19.51     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          28   37   -5      -0.75    46.45    -2.84    50.40     4.16    -5.62     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.38     4.36     0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   28   36   -7       1.17    56.84    -1.38    47.56     4.03   -10.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     1.05     0.19R    0.00  
Southampton      28   34  -16       4.16    71.92    -0.62    45.34     4.07   -20.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22     1.61R    0.03  
Newcastle        28   32  -17       1.09    56.88    -5.81    43.17     3.96   -21.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     5.26R    0.16  
Brighton         28   28   -8      -2.75    36.21     4.29    37.60     3.85   -14.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.90R    3.51  
West_Ham         28   27  -14      -5.49    23.53    -2.63    39.44     4.17   -16.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.52R    2.11  
Watford          28   27  -16      -3.55    32.18    -2.58    38.03     3.99   -20.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.60R    3.78  
Bournemouth      28   27  -17      -3.90    30.67    -4.04    36.05     3.77   -25.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.39R    7.62  
Aston_Villa      27   25  -18      -1.76    41.63     1.56    34.77     4.10   -27.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.96R   15.52  
Norwich          28   21  -26      -3.29    33.24    -1.09    30.29     3.86   -34.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.48R   67.28  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 February 2020, Blackburn 2 2 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       36   69  +27       4.05    66.82     3.18    86.80     4.27    33.37    55.74    91.62    99.99    94.47P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    36   68  +24       7.15    78.06     7.21    85.85     4.18    30.20    40.87    88.15    99.98    91.87P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          36   63  +14       5.73    73.03     2.27    77.36     4.33    14.98     2.19    10.78    93.94    31.22P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   35   59  +13       6.89    77.83     6.79    75.63     4.53    15.33     0.73     5.36    87.27    24.00P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       36   57  +26      -4.25    31.99     8.22    74.20     4.25    31.20     0.43     3.52    84.24    30.75P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         36   56   +7       3.56    65.10     2.40    70.87     4.32     8.72     0.04     0.43    53.25    11.49P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    36   54   -2       4.49    69.11    -2.02    67.68     4.29    -2.00     0.00     0.04    22.89     4.08P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       36   53  +10       0.83    53.72     5.85    67.07     4.31    10.51     0.01     0.10    22.19     4.70P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         36   52   +1       0.46    52.23    -2.19    65.97     4.24     1.53     0.00     0.01    13.03     2.75P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        36   51   +1       4.41    69.28     4.42    64.61     4.24     0.98     0.00     0.00     7.72     1.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Cardiff         36   51   +0      -0.87    46.47    -3.66    65.12     4.32     0.65     0.00     0.01    10.42     2.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       36   48   +2      -2.33    40.03     0.40    60.89     4.21     0.80     0.00     0.00     1.81     0.37P    0.13R    0.00  
Derby           36   48   -3      -4.32    32.42    -7.42    61.01     4.27    -4.09     0.00     0.00     1.72     0.40P    0.15R    0.00  
QPR             36   47   -6       3.20    64.44     3.42    59.26     4.24    -8.55     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.08P    1.00R    0.02  
Birmingham      36   47   -7       1.95    59.04    -0.52    59.82     4.23    -8.49     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.10P    0.72R    0.01  
Reading         36   45   +2      -0.85    46.73     6.74    58.22     4.24     1.41     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P    1.29R    0.04  
Huddersfield    36   42  -11      -1.17    45.52    -1.78    53.49     4.12   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   14.92R    1.18  
Hull            36   41  -10      -4.74    30.82    -3.83    53.99     4.26   -11.36     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.45R    1.10  
Wigan           36   40  -12      -2.99    37.21    -3.01    53.30     4.25   -12.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.54R    1.91  
Charlton        36   39   -9      -3.59    35.51     1.03    50.88     4.17   -11.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.35R    3.73  
Stoke           36   39  -10      -6.79    22.62    -4.99    51.70     4.17   -11.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.58R    2.82  
Middlesbrough   35   37  -11      -9.68    13.22    -9.93    51.99     4.45   -10.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.44R    2.77  
Barnsley        36   34  -18      -7.36    20.94    -5.59    45.45     4.16   -21.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.10R   37.36  
Luton           36   34  -28      -2.92    38.13    -7.00    44.92     4.21   -32.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.34R   49.06  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 March 2020, Coventry 1 0 Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Coventry             33   64  +17      13.38    94.52     8.81    79.93     4.45    18.36    30.56    53.68    92.87    61.16P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            34   62  +25       2.86    62.33     5.31    80.06     4.21    32.02    37.32    61.15    94.80    70.47P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           33   59  +19       1.66    57.14     0.30    76.33     4.44    22.35    10.83    24.87    76.70    38.97P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              34   59   +5      12.98    93.48     5.96    71.99     4.23     3.99     1.34     4.16    36.28     8.38P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           34   58  +18      -2.35    38.44    -2.72    75.20     4.17    23.14     6.02    16.08    71.30    34.00P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   57  +23       2.57    61.57    10.94    74.23     4.21    28.39     4.64    13.33    65.04    25.67P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         34   56  +26      -1.93    41.20     7.72    74.50     4.10    33.70     5.16    14.96    69.27    30.16P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       32   55  +12       5.78    75.58     3.99    73.53     4.60    15.33     3.67     9.81    53.17    19.11P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              34   52  +12      -1.28    44.37     2.12    69.74     4.10    18.23     0.24     1.15    22.22     6.79P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            33   51  +17      -3.49    33.97     2.88    67.98     4.43    19.90     0.21     0.79    14.14     4.35P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           34   50   +8       2.04    59.61     5.70    64.59     4.13     9.31     0.00     0.02     2.52     0.55P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   47   +1      -1.24    44.30    -3.47    63.25     4.47     2.84     0.01     0.02     1.56     0.38P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            33   44   +2      -2.37    39.19     0.11    58.97     4.35     1.90     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       33   42  -11       0.22    51.89    -6.15    54.79     4.28   -14.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           33   41  -10      -0.74    46.75    -5.73    55.00     4.28   -11.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   34   40   -5      -2.25    40.16     2.08    52.56     4.10    -6.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         34   39   -3      -3.53    34.84     3.03    53.46     4.28    -1.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
MK_Dons              34   37  -10      -3.78    33.61    -1.37    48.44     4.09   -13.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.96R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   34  -13      -4.29    30.99    -0.51    46.44     4.07   -14.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.98R    0.00  
Rochdale             33   33  -20      -1.99    41.32    -2.68    46.04     4.33   -23.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.74R    0.00  
Tranmere             32   26  -26      -3.49    33.59    -2.36    35.92     4.18   -36.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.16R    0.08  
Southend             34   16  -48     -14.24     2.82   -18.33    25.33     3.85   -56.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   28.87  
Bolton               32   12  -39      -5.29    25.14   -15.63    21.55     4.12   -50.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   71.05  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 February 2020, Bradford 2 1 Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          34   66  +23      10.04    87.16     9.10    87.08     4.73    29.93    56.88    89.41    99.96    92.34P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            35   65  +22       8.97    83.75    10.07    81.83     4.51    24.56    12.21    55.52    99.26    65.98P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           35   64  +12       8.61    83.36     1.22    81.37     4.49    15.43     9.16    47.49    99.03    60.41P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       35   63  +25       8.30    82.27    15.13    81.06     4.44    29.27    11.28    51.12    99.30    63.39P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         35   62  +16       3.61    64.80     0.45    81.48     4.55    22.48    10.33    51.82    98.93    65.99P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      36   58  +15       1.56    56.82     4.61    72.81     4.26    16.64     0.13     3.22    74.37    20.64P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        36   56   +6       7.58    80.01     7.07    69.11     4.21     5.18     0.01     0.39    34.56     6.08P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       36   55  +12      -1.20    44.95     2.08    70.03     4.28    13.96     0.02     0.65    49.39    13.21P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         36   54   +6      -2.10    41.20    -3.79    69.41     4.25     8.52     0.00     0.38    40.52    11.09P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     36   47   +1       3.35    64.95     9.62    58.90     4.16    -1.86     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     35   46   +1      -3.74    34.18    -1.74    60.95     4.41     0.81     0.00     0.00     2.23     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     36   45   +1      -1.28    44.96     5.65    58.68     4.20     0.83     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    36   45   -7       2.13    60.29     2.01    56.80     4.14    -9.55     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          35   44   -5       1.07    55.51     2.03    56.63     4.31    -8.63     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          35   44  -11      -3.40    35.93   -10.19    58.20     4.49   -12.10     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   34   43   -6      -0.49    48.23    -2.11    58.27     4.58    -7.43     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           36   41  -10      -7.54    20.37    -8.55    54.13     4.23   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.01R    0.01  
Scunthorpe       35   40   -8      -9.59    14.91   -10.12    56.39     4.52    -6.17     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    0.01R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient    35   39   -9      -1.31    45.02     2.92    51.27     4.33   -13.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10R    0.10  
Carlisle         35   39  -16      -4.24    32.23    -8.71    53.62     4.45   -16.71     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.03R    0.03  
Macclesfield     36   36  -12      -2.57    39.08     3.03    46.03     3.94   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.70R    1.70  
Mansfield        35   35   -8     -15.51     3.99   -11.64    50.64     4.52    -7.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23R    0.23  
Morecambe        36   32  -24      -5.39    26.85    -5.73    42.38     4.05   -29.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.07R   12.07  
Stevenage        35   22  -24     -17.45     1.42   -12.40    34.74     4.32   -27.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.84R   85.84  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 February 2020, Barrow 2 1 Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             36   70  +31       9.54    85.23    14.38    85.96     4.27    34.36    84.73    99.93    88.57P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     35   62  +16       5.49    72.55     3.18    78.62     4.54    18.28    10.75    90.92    29.77P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             36   57  +16      -4.63    30.75    -2.51    74.03     4.32    20.97     1.66    68.99    23.04P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       35   56  +14       4.33    68.42     8.53    73.03     4.53    16.96     0.88    57.82    12.98P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            34   55   +3       9.05    84.97     3.82    71.15     4.66     2.67     0.49    37.30     6.55P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     36   54  +12      -2.17    40.58     1.92    70.82     4.25    16.54     0.20    38.76    10.36P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          37   54   -4       8.69    82.24     4.47    64.07     3.97    -7.46     0.01     2.49     0.39P    0.01R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     36   53   +1       2.59    61.35    -0.43    66.66     4.32     0.95     0.01     9.35     1.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking             36   52   -5       8.28    81.23     3.93    63.59     4.22    -8.30     0.00     2.37     0.36P    0.06R    0.00  
Notts_County       34   51  +14      -7.61    19.67    -3.89    71.52     4.76    20.10     0.86    47.59    16.16P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         36   51   +6       0.51    52.40     4.61    65.96     4.23     7.90     0.00     7.35     1.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            37   51   +5      -1.80    43.03     2.25    64.75     4.09     7.04     0.00     4.09     0.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet             32   49   +8       0.53    52.62     1.11    69.56     5.18    10.00     0.41    29.80     7.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Torquay            35   48   -3       4.29    68.12     4.94    60.70     4.51    -6.95     0.00     0.89     0.15P    0.74R    0.00  
Sutton_United      35   46   +4      -2.42    39.80     3.26    62.62     4.53     6.31     0.00     2.15     0.43P    0.21R    0.00  
Aldershot          36   46   -8       3.13    64.34     1.46    57.94     4.15   -10.61     0.00     0.09     0.02P    2.94R    0.00  
Wrexham            36   42   -3      -9.49    14.40    -6.31    56.13     4.23    -2.25     0.00     0.01     0.00P    4.98R    0.00  
Eastleigh          34   42   -9      -1.06    45.91    -3.13    56.42     4.62   -12.12     0.00     0.07     0.01P    7.49R    0.01  
Dag_&_Red          35   41   -4      -5.48    27.14    -2.09    55.16     4.44    -5.27     0.00     0.02     0.00P    9.98R    0.00  
Maidenhead         36   41  -12       0.50    53.11     1.85    52.69     4.19   -15.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.93R    0.06  
Chesterfield       35   40  -10      -7.20    21.45    -8.42    54.72     4.48   -10.71     0.00     0.01     0.00P   12.68R    0.02  
Ebbsfleet_United   37   36  -23      -9.10    16.16   -13.71    45.80     3.91   -27.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.78R    2.32  
AFC_Fylde          33   32  -17     -12.27     7.78   -15.17    50.33     4.99   -16.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.21R    0.71  
Chorley            36   26  -32      -5.16    27.55    -4.05    34.82     3.86   -39.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.97R   96.88