Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 28 February 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 28 February 2020, Norwich 1 0 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        27   79  +47      17.60    99.94     5.94   103.97     3.74    63.95    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         27   57  +39      -4.50    23.66    -4.01    82.20     3.74    57.39     0.01    99.56    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        28   50  +26       3.60    68.06    14.14    67.42     4.21    31.66     0.00     0.39    70.76    89.35    98.93     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          27   44   +8      -1.62    40.95    -4.84    62.63     4.34    13.32     0.00     0.04    14.57    49.05    87.13     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          27   41  +12      -4.61    26.61    -0.65    59.58     4.38    17.30     0.00     0.01     6.08    24.37    71.11     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        27   40   +8      -6.66    18.23    -6.77    59.88     4.48    15.13     0.00     0.00     7.02    26.67    71.20     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        27   40   +4       6.36    80.53     9.41    54.08     4.38     2.77     0.00     0.00     0.56     3.24    18.93     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    27   39   +6       2.30    62.46     7.18    54.95     4.47     7.28     0.00     0.00     0.64     4.43    26.04     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          27   37   +3      -6.20    20.70    -5.96    53.80     4.38     5.32     0.00     0.00     0.30     2.19    17.79     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          27   37   -6       5.96    79.39     3.63    49.52     4.19   -10.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     2.53     0.03R    0.00  
Everton          27   36   -5      -0.60    47.22    -3.10    50.50     4.36    -6.05     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.51     5.09     0.01R    0.00  
Southampton      27   34  -14       4.90    75.50     0.31    46.71     4.35   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.77     0.66R    0.02  
Crystal_Palace   27   33   -8      -0.36    48.63    -2.13    45.88     4.24   -11.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.43     0.71R    0.01  
Newcastle        27   31  -17       1.51    59.33    -5.53    43.69     4.21   -21.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     3.46R    0.11  
Brighton         27   28   -7      -1.68    41.61     4.90    39.02     4.13   -13.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.60R    1.37  
Bournemouth      27   26  -17      -3.77    30.94    -4.43    35.81     3.99   -26.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.64R    7.95  
Aston_Villa      27   25  -18      -1.70    41.79     1.66    34.77     4.10   -27.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.95R   13.01  
West_Ham         27   24  -16      -6.35    19.60    -3.45    37.89     4.42   -18.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.70R    4.41  
Watford          27   24  -19      -4.80    25.64    -5.05    35.02     4.10   -25.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.23R   13.08  
Norwich          28   21  -26      -3.40    32.75    -1.24    30.36     3.88   -34.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.99R   60.05  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 26 February 2020, Blackburn 0 0 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       35   69  +28       5.38    72.57     4.00    89.12     4.45    35.85    78.40    96.63    99.99    97.71P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    35   65  +20       7.24    79.14     5.79    84.12     4.42    26.03    19.14    79.30    99.80    85.37P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          35   60  +12       4.80    69.69     1.34    75.87     4.56    13.13     1.14     8.88    84.86    27.46P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   35   59  +13       6.86    77.89     6.72    75.70     4.50    15.41     0.57     6.88    85.38    24.74P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       35   56  +26      -4.12    31.95     7.89    74.72     4.51    31.39     0.68     6.18    83.07    32.24P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         35   56   +9       4.26    68.33     3.46    72.19     4.53    10.67     0.06     1.66    60.82    14.57P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    35   53   -2       4.59    69.54    -2.39    67.90     4.52    -2.21     0.00     0.15    22.24     4.38P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       35   52  +10       1.10    55.06     5.70    67.75     4.55    11.00     0.01     0.22    25.16     5.45P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         35   51   +1       0.76    54.06    -2.28    66.15     4.46     1.27     0.00     0.04    13.03     2.80P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        35   50   +1       5.02    72.06     4.80    64.92     4.48     0.90     0.00     0.01     8.51     1.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Cardiff         35   50   +0      -0.26    49.17    -3.35    65.28     4.57     0.34     0.00     0.05    10.80     2.42P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       35   48   +4      -1.52    43.49     1.59    62.58     4.47     3.30     0.00     0.00     4.01     0.86P    0.05R    0.00  
QPR             35   46   -6       3.54    65.91     3.29    59.67     4.47    -8.47     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.11P    0.97R    0.03  
Birmingham      35   46   -7       2.36    60.99    -0.48    59.97     4.48    -8.86     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.15P    0.80R    0.02  
Derby           35   45   -5      -5.17    28.55    -8.33    59.00     4.45    -6.59     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.17P    0.89R    0.02  
Reading         35   42   +0      -1.61    43.33     6.02    56.74     4.46    -0.40     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    3.75R    0.29  
Hull            35   41   -6      -4.99    29.32    -2.46    55.46     4.49    -7.17     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    7.36R    0.62  
Charlton        35   39   -5      -3.93    33.56     2.37    52.68     4.42    -7.11     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   18.51R    2.06  
Huddersfield    35   39  -15      -1.07    46.13    -3.23    51.56     4.36   -18.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.47R    5.00  
Stoke           35   38  -10      -6.41    23.79    -4.97    52.17     4.46   -11.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.57R    3.95  
Middlesbrough   35   37  -11      -9.73    12.96    -9.93    51.93     4.44   -10.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.90R    3.20  
Wigan           35   37  -13      -4.46    30.97    -3.77    50.67     4.41   -15.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.66R    7.56  
Barnsley        35   34  -16      -6.91    22.39    -4.91    46.81     4.45   -19.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.31R   28.06  
Luton           35   33  -28      -2.55    39.70    -6.89    45.23     4.44   -32.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.72R   49.18  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 28 February 2020, Portsmouth 3 0 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            33   61  +25       3.48    65.18     5.63    81.40     4.44    33.55    48.36    69.16    96.08    77.00P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             32   61  +16      11.88    92.57     8.03    78.22     4.68    17.26    16.53    36.29    83.23    45.33P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           33   59  +19       1.56    57.08     0.13    76.39     4.43    22.45     9.49    23.40    74.95    37.67P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              33   59   +7      13.47    94.36     6.58    72.98     4.43     5.44     2.03     6.13    42.41    11.34P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           33   58  +19      -1.12    44.29    -2.05    76.62     4.41    24.23    10.63    25.45    77.75    42.14P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         33   55  +26      -1.43    43.19     7.92    74.93     4.34    33.73     6.00    16.75    68.50    31.57P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       32   55  +12       5.41    73.88     3.48    73.62     4.56    15.51     3.07     8.99    51.01    18.11P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           33   54  +22       1.79    58.10    11.49    73.66     4.36    29.33     3.14    10.25    56.99    21.68P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              33   52  +13      -0.26    48.91     2.65    71.19     4.34    19.41     0.64     2.81    31.90    10.51P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           33   50   +9       3.33    65.69     6.50    66.59     4.37    11.22     0.03     0.23     6.49     1.46P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            32   48  +15      -4.19    30.65     2.26    66.71     4.64    18.43     0.06     0.45     8.52     2.64P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        32   46   +1      -0.65    47.01    -3.13    63.58     4.71     2.78     0.03     0.08     2.08     0.56P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       32   42  -10       1.57    58.17    -5.18    56.41     4.53   -13.15     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            32   41   +1      -3.64    33.43    -0.37    57.28     4.59     0.81     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         34   39   -3      -3.42    35.07     3.26    53.38     4.28    -1.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   33   39   -5      -1.82    42.14     2.32    53.05     4.37    -6.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           32   38  -11      -2.09    40.56    -6.24    52.99     4.46   -12.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
MK_Dons              33   36  -10      -3.80    33.06    -2.04    47.98     4.27   -14.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.36R    0.00  
Rochdale             33   33  -20      -2.00    41.46    -2.65    46.04     4.31   -23.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.32R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        33   31  -14      -6.00    23.29    -1.48    44.19     4.24   -16.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.23R    0.00  
Tranmere             32   26  -26      -3.67    32.67    -2.63    35.99     4.19   -36.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.98R    0.11  
Southend             33   16  -47     -13.71     3.12   -18.92    25.72     3.97   -57.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.95R   28.77  
Bolton               31   11  -39      -5.08    25.37   -15.54    21.79     4.36   -50.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   71.12  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 February 2020, Cheltenham 2 1 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          34   66  +23       9.76    86.70     8.67    87.28     4.70    30.24    53.22    89.64    99.99    92.61P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            34   64  +22       9.42    85.51    10.14    82.56     4.74    25.08    14.34    59.72    99.31    69.53P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           34   63  +12       9.36    85.76     1.78    82.36     4.71    16.34    12.14    53.97    99.41    65.58P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         34   62  +17       4.34    68.03     0.50    82.99     4.75    23.71    15.70    63.14    99.41    74.17P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       34   60  +23       7.44    79.98    14.29    78.75     4.69    26.36     4.48    29.16    97.07    45.97P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       35   55  +14      -0.51    47.77     3.04    71.85     4.50    16.66     0.05     2.16    68.14    19.98P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      35   55  +12       1.33    55.64     3.66    70.88     4.47    13.19     0.05     1.40    58.32    15.09P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        35   55   +6       7.84    81.29     6.88    69.67     4.44     5.49     0.01     0.64    42.06     7.94P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         35   51   +5      -3.04    36.89    -3.81    67.62     4.51     7.31     0.00     0.16    28.45     7.57P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     35   46   +1      -3.70    34.05    -1.69    60.87     4.39     0.70     0.00     0.00     2.42     0.54P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    35   45   -6       3.13    64.71     2.47    58.56     4.42    -7.99     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     35   44   +1      -0.89    46.55     5.66    58.42     4.41    -0.13     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     35   44   -1       2.45    61.24     8.79    56.99     4.40    -4.29     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          34   44   -2       1.27    56.43     3.32    58.22     4.55    -5.27     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          35   44  -11      -3.43    35.63   -10.27    58.18     4.50   -12.15     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   33   43   -1      -1.01    45.90     0.11    60.13     4.82    -1.68     0.00     0.00     2.36     0.44P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       34   39   -8      -9.18    15.47   -10.14    56.53     4.75    -6.50     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.07P    0.01R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient    35   39   -9      -1.43    44.39     2.66    51.34     4.33   -13.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.08  
Oldham           35   38  -15      -7.34    20.54   -10.84    52.08     4.43   -16.54     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.11R    0.11  
Macclesfield     35   36  -10      -1.84    42.57     4.02    47.75     4.22   -14.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.92R    0.92  
Carlisle         34   36  -17      -5.64    26.06    -9.35    51.59     4.68   -18.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.20R    0.20  
Mansfield        35   35   -8     -15.62     3.90   -11.79    50.70     4.50    -7.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27R    0.27  
Morecambe        35   31  -24      -5.05    28.00    -5.73    42.23     4.24   -29.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.35R   13.35  
Stevenage        35   22  -24     -17.41     1.56   -12.36    34.80     4.34   -27.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.07R   85.07  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 February 2020, Aldershot 3 2 Boreham_Wood; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             35   67  +30       8.22    81.86    13.88    84.84     4.50    34.08    80.69    99.75    85.75P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     36   63  +16       5.26    71.57     3.38    78.35     4.33    18.47    12.71    91.85    32.06P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       34   55  +14       4.90    71.22     8.84    73.62     4.73    17.26     2.22    64.38    15.50P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            34   55   +3       9.10    84.95     3.92    71.11     4.72     2.63     0.81    38.81     7.01P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             35   54  +13      -5.05    28.96    -3.67    72.41     4.58    17.95     1.45    56.01    18.45P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     35   53   +4       3.00    63.45     1.16    67.96     4.55     3.86     0.11    17.42     3.56P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County       34   51  +14      -7.66    19.93    -3.96    71.54     4.77    20.13     1.35    49.96    17.86P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     35   51   +9      -2.51    38.74     0.77    69.28     4.52    13.65     0.18    28.37     7.45P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            36   51   +6      -0.94    46.15     2.46    66.52     4.33     8.68     0.02    11.01     2.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Stockport          36   51   -5       7.40    79.06     4.02    62.15     4.21    -8.98     0.00     1.32     0.20P    0.32R    0.00  
Barnet             33   50   +8      -0.03    49.79     0.88    69.12     4.99     9.95     0.42    27.69     7.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Hartlepool         35   50   +6       0.69    53.31     4.27    66.04     4.51     7.46     0.03     9.85     2.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking             35   49   -7       7.62    79.89     3.34    61.89     4.41   -10.37     0.00     1.34     0.15P    0.64R    0.00  
Aldershot          36   46   -8       3.32    65.32     1.66    57.92     4.16   -10.65     0.00     0.05     0.00P    4.17R    0.00  
Torquay            34   45   -5       3.77    66.54     4.71    59.41     4.76    -8.47     0.00     0.69     0.09P    2.71R    0.00  
Sutton_United      34   43   +3      -3.94    32.94     2.45    60.66     4.77     4.79     0.00     1.17     0.23P    1.36R    0.00  
Wrexham            35   42   +0      -9.49    14.57    -5.28    57.46     4.49     0.69     0.00     0.14     0.03P    4.37R    0.01  
Eastleigh          34   42   -9      -1.00    45.95    -3.10    56.42     4.65   -12.07     0.00     0.09     0.01P    9.43R    0.02  
Dag_&_Red          34   41   -3      -4.79    29.59    -2.06    56.19     4.63    -4.78     0.00     0.08     0.02P    9.37R    0.02  
Maidenhead         35   41  -10       1.09    55.81     2.68    54.10     4.46   -13.22     0.00     0.01     0.00    20.60R    0.10  
Chesterfield       35   40  -10      -7.17    21.66    -8.39    54.75     4.52   -10.69     0.00     0.02     0.00P   15.63R    0.07  
Ebbsfleet_United   36   36  -22      -8.07    18.88   -13.22    47.53     4.17   -25.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.74R    2.24  
AFC_Fylde          33   32  -17     -12.31     7.97   -15.28    50.33     5.03   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.73R    1.38  
Chorley            35   26  -30      -4.68    29.65    -3.45    35.74     4.13   -38.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.89R   96.16