Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 23 February 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 23 February 2020, Arsenal 3 2 Everton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        26   76  +46      16.95    99.93     6.84   103.64     3.88    65.33    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         27   57  +39      -4.53    23.60    -4.12    82.21     3.75    57.45     0.01    98.63    99.98   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        27   50  +27       5.01    74.77    15.09    69.79     4.43    34.22     0.00     1.33    82.77    94.85    99.63     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          27   44   +8      -1.61    41.30    -4.89    62.70     4.32    13.48     0.00     0.04     8.95    47.54    87.20     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          27   41  +12      -4.56    26.86    -0.55    59.56     4.41    17.20     0.00     0.00     3.61    22.63    70.34     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        27   40   +8      -6.62    18.34    -6.66    59.82     4.53    15.05     0.00     0.00     3.89    24.79    70.33     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        27   40   +4       6.35    80.83     9.40    54.14     4.41     2.84     0.00     0.00     0.30     3.04    19.46     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    27   39   +6       2.13    61.38     6.91    55.07     4.45     7.44     0.00     0.00     0.33     4.36    26.76     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          27   37   +3      -6.17    20.96    -5.93    53.78     4.36     5.32     0.00     0.00     0.15     2.19    17.55     0.00R    0.00  
Burnley          27   37   -6       5.79    78.60     3.39    49.61     4.22   -10.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     2.64     0.04R    0.00  
Everton          27   36   -5      -0.41    48.39    -2.80    50.42     4.35    -6.17     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.43     4.86     0.04R    0.00  
Southampton      27   34  -14       4.82    75.25     0.16    46.77     4.34   -18.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.70     0.55R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   27   33   -8      -0.27    49.41    -2.02    45.78     4.25   -11.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.44     0.75R    0.01  
Newcastle        27   31  -17       1.54    59.49    -5.56    43.69     4.20   -21.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     3.41R    0.05  
Brighton         27   28   -7      -1.59    42.07     5.03    38.96     4.08   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    14.85R    0.69  
Bournemouth      27   26  -17      -4.08    29.46    -4.96    35.87     3.96   -26.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.21R    4.14  
Aston_Villa      27   25  -18      -1.72    41.68     1.66    34.72     4.09   -27.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.12R    7.61  
West_Ham         26   24  -15      -5.67    21.69    -4.09    38.07     4.51   -19.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.69R    2.60  
Watford          27   24  -19      -4.79    25.57    -5.07    34.97     4.06   -26.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.62R    8.23  
Norwich          27   18  -27      -5.05    23.74    -1.81    27.87     4.05   -36.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.72R   76.67  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2020, Barnsley 1 0 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       34   66  +26       4.66    70.00     3.35    87.79     4.71    34.30    75.55    93.23    99.96    95.41P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    34   62  +19       6.02    75.26     5.32    82.50     4.70    25.07    18.25    67.23    98.91    76.62P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          34   57  +11       4.05    67.27     1.57    74.33     4.79    12.25     1.16     7.88    71.25    22.94P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       34   56  +27      -2.72    37.60     8.86    76.89     4.73    33.68     3.72    19.22    89.23    43.62P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   34   56  +12       5.45    73.12     6.06    73.90     4.74    14.19     0.60     5.49    69.62    19.78P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         34   56  +11       4.65    69.95     3.94    73.33     4.76    12.24     0.60     4.90    64.61    18.21P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    34   53   -1       5.82    74.52    -1.64    69.41     4.77    -1.04     0.04     0.74    29.67     6.23P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       34   51  +10       1.63    57.38     5.98    68.54     4.78    11.57     0.05     0.62    27.97     6.46P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         34   51   +2       1.62    57.53    -2.01    67.39     4.68     2.06     0.02     0.30    17.68     4.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Cardiff         34   50   +1       0.48    52.38    -3.20    66.82     4.81     1.59     0.01     0.33    15.97     3.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall        34   49   +1       5.30    73.26     4.77    65.60     4.73     1.33     0.00     0.06    10.02     1.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       34   45   +3      -2.77    38.00     1.08    61.24     4.68     2.67     0.00     0.00     2.04     0.45P    0.17R    0.00  
Derby           34   45   -4      -4.35    31.30    -8.11    60.53     4.73    -5.38     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.26P    0.24R    0.00  
Birmingham      34   45   -7       2.53    61.87    -0.64    60.14     4.69    -9.19     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.18P    0.55R    0.01  
QPR             34   43   -7       2.03    59.73     2.57    58.07     4.71    -9.45     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04P    1.95R    0.08  
Reading         34   42   +3      -1.16    45.18     7.73    58.67     4.72     3.41     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.07P    1.20R    0.03  
Hull            34   41   -5      -3.82    33.80    -1.67    57.44     4.77    -5.26     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P    2.62R    0.12  
Charlton        34   39   -4      -3.36    35.85     2.27    53.86     4.64    -6.43     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    9.34R    0.49  
Stoke           34   37  -10      -6.21    24.14    -5.06    52.20     4.66   -11.77     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    18.20R    1.87  
Middlesbrough   34   37  -10      -8.97    14.68    -9.67    53.14     4.63   -10.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.08R    0.71  
Huddersfield    34   36  -16      -2.29    40.64    -3.57    49.68     4.57   -20.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.94R    5.53  
Wigan           34   34  -16      -5.11    28.08    -5.34    48.49     4.58   -18.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.40R    8.97  
Barnsley        34   31  -17      -8.19    17.62    -5.21    44.67     4.67   -21.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.65R   28.78  
Luton           34   30  -29      -3.90    33.53    -7.35    42.81     4.63   -35.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.65R   53.40  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2020, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            32   60  +25       4.07    68.16     6.03    81.72     4.63    33.44    49.17    70.58    96.64    77.99P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             31   60  +16      12.14    93.46     7.90    78.56     4.90    17.26    19.03    39.40    85.47    48.45P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              33   59   +7      13.41    94.32     6.49    72.98     4.40     5.44     1.72     5.93    45.54    11.55P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           32   57  +19      -0.62    46.66    -1.92    77.54     4.66    25.03    14.57    33.87    83.87    50.25P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         33   55  +26      -1.55    42.55     7.75    74.91     4.35    33.71     5.38    16.62    71.05    32.18P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       31   54  +12       5.60    75.32     3.23    73.48     4.77    14.78     3.12     9.67    52.32    18.89P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           31   53  +14       0.96    54.55    -0.74    74.32     4.80    19.31     4.53    13.35    60.47    26.22P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              33   52  +13      -0.31    48.46     2.60    71.21     4.35    19.40     0.58     2.91    35.06    11.59P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   51  +19       1.40    56.63    10.39    72.52     4.60    27.07     1.80     6.96    49.52    17.63P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           33   50   +9       3.44    65.85     6.67    66.57     4.34    11.19     0.04     0.25     7.23     1.60P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            32   48  +15      -4.20    30.68     2.24    66.79     4.65    18.52     0.06     0.41    10.23     3.06P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        32   46   +1      -0.69    46.89    -3.19    63.57     4.70     2.77     0.01     0.05     2.48     0.55P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       32   42  -10       1.43    57.35    -5.41    56.40     4.53   -13.11     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   32   39   -2      -1.89    41.24     2.92    54.17     4.56    -4.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         34   39   -3      -3.50    34.55     3.02    53.43     4.28    -1.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool            31   38   +0      -4.66    28.74    -0.48    56.40     4.79     0.98     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           31   38  -10      -0.80    46.51    -5.45    55.19     4.68   -10.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
MK_Dons              32   36   -8      -3.22    35.37    -1.36    48.71     4.42   -13.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.44R    0.00  
Rochdale             32   33  -17      -1.78    42.35    -1.67    46.80     4.46   -21.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.64R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        33   31  -14      -5.81    24.20    -1.24    44.16     4.22   -16.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.84R    0.00  
Tranmere             31   23  -27      -5.17    25.20    -3.59    33.51     4.32   -38.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.12R    0.85  
Southend             33   16  -47     -13.80     3.03   -19.04    25.73     3.97   -57.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.95R   31.54  
Bolton               30   11  -38      -4.12    29.66   -15.16    22.31     4.53   -50.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.97R   67.61  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2020, Carlisle 2 2 Morecambe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          34   66  +23       9.78    86.56     8.69    87.23     4.73    30.20    53.31    90.04    99.98    92.85P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            34   64  +22       9.48    85.47    10.23    82.57     4.76    25.07    15.04    61.26    99.37    70.86P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           34   63  +12       9.35    85.36     1.76    82.36     4.72    16.36    12.11    55.40    99.29    66.55P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         34   62  +17       4.10    67.24     0.19    83.06     4.74    23.79    16.39    64.84    99.42    75.40P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       33   57  +22       6.26    76.54    13.87    77.33     4.89    25.64     2.89    21.96    93.22    39.53P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       35   55  +14      -0.68    47.01     2.80    71.89     4.53    16.71     0.09     2.46    66.60    19.82P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      34   55  +13       2.41    60.83     4.23    72.07     4.71    13.92     0.15     3.13    65.80    18.03P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        35   55   +6       7.78    81.15     6.80    69.64     4.44     5.44     0.01     0.71    40.00     7.86P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         35   51   +5      -2.96    37.25    -3.76    67.63     4.52     7.32     0.00     0.19    27.17     7.26P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     35   46   +1      -3.72    34.32    -1.71    60.87     4.38     0.72     0.00     0.00     2.18     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    35   45   -6       3.32    65.66     2.68    58.51     4.40    -8.06     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     35   44   +1      -0.78    47.06     5.86    58.38     4.37    -0.18     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     35   44   -1       2.47    61.77     8.82    56.94     4.37    -4.34     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          35   44  -11      -3.45    35.28   -10.29    58.17     4.50   -12.17     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   32   43   +1      -0.19    49.40     1.31    61.65     5.05     0.59     0.00     0.01     4.64     0.90P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          33   41   -4       0.18    51.47     1.96    56.39     4.73    -7.42     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       34   39   -8      -9.13    15.95   -10.08    56.57     4.77    -6.44     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.07P    0.01R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient    35   39   -9      -1.38    44.97     2.74    51.29     4.37   -13.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.09  
Oldham           35   38  -15      -7.41    20.17   -10.96    52.09     4.43   -16.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.10R    0.10  
Macclesfield     35   36  -10      -1.66    42.95     4.33    47.66     4.19   -14.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.90R    0.90  
Carlisle         34   36  -17      -5.61    26.12    -9.30    51.63     4.70   -18.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.22R    0.22  
Mansfield        35   35   -8     -15.70     3.81   -11.91    50.74     4.50    -7.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22R    0.22  
Morecambe        35   31  -24      -5.05    27.97    -5.81    42.20     4.23   -29.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.45R   13.45  
Stevenage        35   22  -24     -17.47     1.36   -12.45    34.77     4.32   -27.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.00R   85.00  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2020, Boreham_Wood 1 0 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             35   67  +30       8.35    82.17    13.98    84.82     4.47    34.08    78.88    99.71    84.34P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     36   63  +16       5.22    71.46     3.30    78.42     4.33    18.55    12.62    91.53    31.72P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       33   55  +15       5.94    75.21     9.36    75.29     4.95    18.71     4.64    74.17    19.65P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            34   55   +3       9.23    85.22     4.09    71.16     4.69     2.65     0.72    37.33     6.83P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             35   54  +13      -4.99    29.32    -3.59    72.39     4.58    17.94     1.29    54.05    17.75P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     35   53   +4       2.62    61.83     0.60    68.12     4.55     4.08     0.08    17.45     3.79P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       34   51  +14      -7.56    20.05    -3.82    71.54     4.76    20.15     1.14    48.42    17.20P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     35   51   +9      -2.61    38.58     0.62    69.29     4.53    13.68     0.17    27.23     7.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            36   51   +6      -0.73    46.94     2.82    66.44     4.34     8.51     0.02     9.93     2.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Stockport          36   51   -5       7.44    78.95     4.10    62.13     4.23    -9.00     0.00     1.17     0.18P    0.26R    0.00  
Barnet             33   50   +8      -0.06    49.80     0.83    69.15     4.97     9.98     0.44    26.66     6.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Hartlepool         35   50   +6       0.83    53.79     4.51    65.95     4.49     7.32     0.01     8.95     1.80P    0.02R    0.00  
Woking             35   49   -7       7.87    80.58     3.74    61.84     4.44   -10.46     0.00     1.29     0.18P    0.60R    0.00  
Torquay            34   45   -5       3.72    66.35     4.63    59.35     4.77    -8.53     0.00     0.63     0.11P    2.49R    0.00  
Sutton_United      34   43   +3      -3.97    32.71     2.38    60.65     4.75     4.77     0.00     1.14     0.23P    1.19R    0.00  
Aldershot          35   43   -9       1.76    58.51     0.72    56.11     4.40   -11.86     0.00     0.04     0.01P    9.49R    0.00  
Wrexham            35   42   +0      -9.21    15.14    -4.85    57.31     4.48     0.47     0.00     0.14     0.03P    4.07R    0.00  
Eastleigh          34   42   -9      -1.18    45.30    -3.35    56.49     4.66   -12.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    8.36R    0.01  
Dag_&_Red          34   41   -3      -4.87    29.56    -2.19    56.16     4.63    -4.78     0.00     0.05     0.01P    8.93R    0.01  
Maidenhead         34   41   -8       1.90    59.46     3.72    55.85     4.72   -10.62     0.00     0.04     0.00P   11.48R    0.03  
Chesterfield       35   40  -10      -7.07    22.13    -8.30    54.67     4.47   -10.82     0.00     0.01     0.00    14.28R    0.04  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   33  -24      -8.98    15.48   -14.12    45.56     4.42   -28.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.84R    5.49  
AFC_Fylde          33   32  -17     -12.29     7.68   -15.21    50.29     5.03   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.09R    1.34  
Chorley            35   26  -30      -4.98    28.70    -3.94    35.83     4.15   -38.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R   93.07