Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 22 February 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2020, Burnley 3 0 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        26   76  +46      16.79    99.93     6.65   103.65     3.88    65.31   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         27   57  +39      -4.54    23.49    -4.02    82.18     3.74    57.34     0.00    98.48    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        27   50  +27       4.82    73.92    14.83    69.87     4.43    34.38     0.00     1.48    83.76    95.51    99.69     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          27   44   +8      -1.45    42.22    -4.63    62.64     4.35    13.34     0.00     0.04     9.05    50.11    88.97     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        27   40   +8      -6.58    18.52    -6.54    59.81     4.50    15.06     0.00     0.00     3.96    26.45    73.62     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        27   40   +4       6.60    81.42     9.77    54.02     4.40     2.66     0.00     0.00     0.25     3.22    21.08     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   38   +9      -5.06    24.38    -1.78    58.56     4.60    15.12     0.00     0.00     2.59    18.38    64.91     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          27   37   -6       5.97    79.17     3.63    49.54     4.20   -10.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.19     3.17     0.03R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   36   +3       1.91    60.74     6.05    53.84     4.70     5.05     0.00     0.00     0.22     3.43    22.17     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          26   36   -4       0.25    51.83    -3.01    51.52     4.58    -5.54     0.00     0.00     0.10     1.07     9.93     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal          26   34   +2      -7.44    16.07    -6.37    52.53     4.60     4.85     0.00     0.00     0.09     1.58    14.86     0.01R    0.00  
Southampton      27   34  -14       4.84    75.46     0.15    46.76     4.34   -18.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.94     0.64R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   27   33   -8      -0.26    49.46    -2.01    45.82     4.27   -11.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.57     0.86R    0.01  
Newcastle        27   31  -17       1.49    59.29    -5.65    43.68     4.21   -21.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     3.88R    0.10  
Brighton         27   28   -7      -1.70    41.58     4.86    38.98     4.08   -13.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.01R    1.10  
Bournemouth      27   26  -17      -3.67    31.52    -4.28    35.73     3.98   -27.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.63R    6.33  
Aston_Villa      27   25  -18      -1.78    41.53     1.47    34.80     4.11   -27.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.79R   10.23  
West_Ham         26   24  -15      -5.51    22.64    -3.86    38.01     4.47   -19.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.64R    3.53  
Watford          26   24  -16      -4.69    25.94    -4.19    35.87     4.28   -23.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.21R    7.95  
Norwich          26   18  -24      -4.90    24.14    -1.07    28.82     4.27   -34.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.30R   70.75  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2020, Barnsley 1 0 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       34   66  +26       4.74    69.95     3.43    87.79     4.70    34.30    75.31    93.31    99.94    95.48P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    34   62  +19       5.85    74.43     5.04    82.56     4.67    25.14    18.40    67.35    98.98    76.65P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          34   57  +11       3.79    66.20     1.14    74.40     4.81    12.36     1.21     8.05    71.63    23.80P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       34   56  +27      -2.86    37.22     8.71    76.95     4.71    33.73     3.82    19.22    89.31    43.64P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   34   56  +12       5.43    73.31     6.07    73.86     4.73    14.16     0.59     5.39    69.19    19.81P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         34   56  +11       4.76    70.34     4.09    73.28     4.73    12.19     0.55     4.66    64.18    17.48P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    34   53   -1       5.81    74.49    -1.68    69.48     4.77    -0.95     0.05     0.74    29.83     5.92P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       34   51  +10       1.67    57.70     6.01    68.53     4.81    11.57     0.03     0.62    27.60     6.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         34   51   +2       1.37    56.53    -2.38    67.43     4.71     2.11     0.03     0.32    17.91     4.11P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         34   50   +1       0.42    52.09    -3.33    66.87     4.81     1.62     0.01     0.26    16.05     3.76P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        34   49   +1       5.33    73.44     4.77    65.59     4.73     1.32     0.00     0.06    10.08     1.86P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       34   45   +3      -2.94    37.31     0.94    61.26     4.68     2.71     0.00     0.01     2.07     0.46P    0.18R    0.00  
Derby           34   45   -4      -4.30    31.61    -8.00    60.49     4.71    -5.45     0.00     0.01     1.18     0.28P    0.28R    0.00  
Birmingham      34   45   -7       2.58    62.04    -0.58    60.11     4.71    -9.21     0.00     0.01     1.00     0.18P    0.54R    0.00  
QPR             34   43   -7       2.13    60.10     2.71    58.06     4.71    -9.48     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P    1.84R    0.05  
Reading         34   42   +3      -1.05    45.78     7.83    58.68     4.73     3.43     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.10P    1.17R    0.04  
Hull            34   41   -5      -3.56    35.03    -1.25    57.36     4.74    -5.42     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    2.61R    0.12  
Charlton        34   39   -4      -3.23    36.53     2.50    53.81     4.66    -6.47     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    9.54R    0.54  
Stoke           34   37  -10      -6.13    24.21    -4.86    52.15     4.64   -11.85     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   18.10R    1.76  
Middlesbrough   34   37  -10      -8.89    15.12    -9.60    53.12     4.68   -10.12     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   12.23R    0.69  
Huddersfield    34   36  -16      -2.30    40.40    -3.60    49.69     4.57   -20.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.75R    5.35  
Wigan           34   34  -16      -5.17    27.45    -5.41    48.49     4.58   -18.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.26R    8.69  
Barnsley        34   31  -17      -8.19    17.79    -5.21    44.64     4.66   -21.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.84R   29.43  
Luton           34   30  -29      -3.91    33.15    -7.35    42.85     4.62   -35.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.65R   53.32  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2020, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            32   60  +25       4.00    68.00     5.92    81.74     4.65    33.49    49.14    70.44    96.47    77.74P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             31   60  +16      12.01    93.35     7.73    78.64     4.90    17.32    19.38    39.95    85.85    48.92P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              33   59   +7      13.40    94.29     6.47    73.00     4.43     5.47     1.73     6.05    45.53    11.85P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           32   57  +19      -0.64    46.24    -1.89    77.56     4.62    25.05    14.19    33.60    84.09    50.23P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         33   55  +26      -1.51    42.73     7.80    74.91     4.34    33.72     5.22    16.51    71.03    32.26P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       31   54  +12       5.61    75.10     3.25    73.47     4.76    14.75     3.25     9.50    52.04    18.52P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           31   53  +14       0.94    54.58    -0.74    74.31     4.83    19.30     4.56    13.38    60.36    26.12P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              33   52  +13      -0.49    47.71     2.35    71.27     4.34    19.50     0.56     2.90    35.63    11.91P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   51  +19       1.40    56.56    10.40    72.52     4.60    27.05     1.83     7.02    49.19    17.30P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           33   50   +9       3.48    66.32     6.72    66.58     4.33    11.21     0.04     0.22     7.32     1.55P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            32   48  +15      -4.18    30.61     2.25    66.76     4.61    18.51     0.09     0.38     9.90     2.99P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        32   46   +1      -0.69    47.02    -3.24    63.57     4.74     2.76     0.01     0.06     2.49     0.59P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       32   42  -10       1.58    58.31    -5.16    56.34     4.51   -13.24     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   32   39   -2      -1.80    42.22     3.05    54.14     4.56    -4.19     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         34   39   -3      -3.68    33.94     2.76    53.53     4.26    -1.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool            31   38   +0      -4.73    28.43    -0.60    56.43     4.78     1.01     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           31   38  -10      -0.84    46.62    -5.50    55.20     4.68   -10.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
MK_Dons              32   36   -8      -3.23    35.44    -1.35    48.73     4.41   -13.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.46R    0.00  
Rochdale             32   33  -17      -1.81    41.92    -1.73    46.82     4.49   -21.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.71R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        33   31  -14      -5.84    24.01    -1.29    44.14     4.26   -16.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.81R    0.00  
Tranmere             31   23  -27      -5.17    25.11    -3.58    33.47     4.32   -39.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.02R    0.79  
Southend             33   16  -47     -13.54     3.36   -18.64    25.68     3.97   -57.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.96R   31.43  
Bolton               30   11  -38      -4.02    30.17   -14.97    22.24     4.52   -50.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   67.78  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2020, Carlisle 2 2 Morecambe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          34   66  +23      10.03    87.25     9.13    87.16     4.71    30.05    52.92    90.05    99.98    92.78P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            34   64  +22       9.47    85.44    10.22    82.56     4.74    25.04    15.09    61.68    99.25    71.02P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           34   63  +12       9.46    85.92     1.91    82.35     4.70    16.30    12.28    55.43    99.34    66.69P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         34   62  +17       4.27    67.97     0.40    83.03     4.76    23.75    16.48    64.67    99.38    75.35P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       33   57  +22       6.27    76.77    13.91    77.29     4.89    25.59     2.95    21.63    93.24    39.18P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       35   55  +14      -0.58    47.34     2.98    71.87     4.52    16.68     0.09     2.33    66.52    19.83P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      34   55  +13       2.07    59.22     3.81    72.11     4.71    14.01     0.15     3.31    66.10    18.22P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        35   55   +6       7.81    81.29     6.79    69.63     4.44     5.43     0.03     0.68    40.01     7.68P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         35   51   +5      -3.02    36.91    -3.82    67.61     4.51     7.31     0.00     0.21    26.80     7.26P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     35   46   +1      -3.83    33.88    -1.86    60.86     4.41     0.71     0.00     0.00     2.26     0.54P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    35   45   -6       3.17    65.08     2.50    58.57     4.41    -7.96     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     35   44   +1      -0.83    46.81     5.69    58.43     4.38    -0.11     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     35   44   -1       2.45    61.35     8.75    56.99     4.36    -4.29     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          35   44  -11      -3.51    35.44   -10.40    58.27     4.50   -12.01     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   32   43   +1      -0.27    49.15     1.21    61.69     5.02     0.66     0.00     0.01     4.70     1.02P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          33   41   -4       0.37    52.45     2.20    56.25     4.76    -7.59     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       34   39   -8      -9.22    15.27   -10.17    56.55     4.75    -6.43     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.08P    0.01R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient    35   39   -9      -1.30    44.96     2.84    51.31     4.36   -13.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.11  
Oldham           35   38  -15      -7.36    20.68   -10.86    52.06     4.42   -16.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.10R    0.10  
Macclesfield     35   36  -10      -1.66    43.15     4.26    47.70     4.20   -14.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.90R    0.90  
Carlisle         34   36  -17      -5.62    26.15    -9.32    51.59     4.66   -18.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24R    0.24  
Mansfield        35   35   -8     -15.59     3.90   -11.76    50.69     4.53    -7.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20R    0.20  
Morecambe        35   31  -24      -5.10    27.80    -5.85    42.20     4.25   -29.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.25R   13.25  
Stevenage        35   22  -24     -17.50     1.34   -12.57    34.79     4.32   -27.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.20R   85.20  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 February 2020, Boreham_Wood 1 0 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             35   67  +30       8.28    81.99    13.92    84.82     4.50    34.08    78.98    99.71    84.45P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     36   63  +16       5.18    71.29     3.29    78.40     4.31    18.53    12.26    91.44    31.61P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       33   55  +15       5.99    75.39     9.41    75.25     4.97    18.67     4.68    73.78    19.71P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            34   55   +3       9.05    84.89     3.82    71.20     4.70     2.71     0.74    38.12     7.20P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             35   54  +13      -5.16    28.77    -3.89    72.42     4.55    17.98     1.39    54.39    17.81P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     35   53   +4       2.64    61.74     0.59    68.10     4.55     4.04     0.12    17.19     3.59P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       34   51  +14      -7.56    20.03    -3.78    71.50     4.77    20.12     1.26    47.82    16.87P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     35   51   +9      -2.55    39.15     0.71    69.35     4.54    13.78     0.16    28.10     7.46P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            36   51   +6      -0.87    46.32     2.56    66.49     4.32     8.60     0.02     9.91     2.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Stockport          36   51   -5       7.43    78.98     4.08    62.15     4.20    -8.97     0.00     1.15     0.18P    0.18R    0.00  
Barnet             33   50   +8       0.14    50.74     1.08    69.04     4.96     9.80     0.37    25.78     6.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Hartlepool         35   50   +6       0.83    53.79     4.50    65.98     4.50     7.39     0.02     9.25     1.94P    0.02R    0.00  
Woking             35   49   -7       7.83    80.49     3.63    61.90     4.47   -10.43     0.00     1.33     0.21P    0.59R    0.00  
Torquay            34   45   -5       3.60    65.84     4.45    59.47     4.74    -8.38     0.00     0.54     0.08P    2.30R    0.00  
Sutton_United      34   43   +3      -3.75    33.48     2.70    60.55     4.76     4.62     0.00     1.10     0.23P    1.30R    0.00  
Aldershot          35   43   -9       1.95    59.65     0.93    56.05     4.38   -11.93     0.00     0.04     0.01P    9.60R    0.01  
Wrexham            35   42   +0      -9.55    14.33    -5.36    57.45     4.47     0.68     0.00     0.14     0.03P    3.75R    0.00  
Eastleigh          34   42   -9      -1.10    45.45    -3.20    56.42     4.62   -12.09     0.00     0.07     0.02P    8.50R    0.02  
Dag_&_Red          34   41   -3      -4.82    29.28    -2.10    56.15     4.64    -4.79     0.00     0.07     0.01P    8.81R    0.01  
Maidenhead         34   41   -8       2.05    60.18     3.88    55.80     4.71   -10.70     0.00     0.05     0.01P   11.60R    0.04  
Chesterfield       35   40  -10      -7.11    21.71    -8.31    54.67     4.51   -10.80     0.00     0.01     0.00    14.38R    0.04  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   33  -24      -9.03    15.38   -14.17    45.51     4.41   -28.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.20R    5.42  
AFC_Fylde          33   32  -17     -12.27     7.75   -15.21    50.33     5.01   -16.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.85R    1.16  
Chorley            35   26  -30      -4.77    29.23    -3.54    35.78     4.13   -38.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.90R   93.31