Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 21 February 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 19 February 2020, Man_City 2 0 West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        26   76  +46      16.77    99.91     6.53   103.71     3.89    65.39   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   54  +38      -5.73    17.91    -4.53    81.08     4.00    57.18     0.00    94.97    99.92   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        26   50  +28       5.69    77.69    14.96    70.77     4.64    34.58     0.00     4.97    86.58    96.58    99.77     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   41   +7      -3.06    33.94    -5.55    61.02     4.64    12.34     0.00     0.04     4.55    34.77    79.29     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   40   +9      -5.64    21.37    -6.22    61.23     4.70    16.10     0.00     0.01     6.10    39.82    80.77     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   39   +4       7.00    83.18     9.75    54.80     4.66     3.25     0.00     0.00     0.43     4.90    27.26     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd          26   38   +9      -4.93    24.96    -1.55    58.43     4.61    14.92     0.00     0.00     2.12    17.95    63.73     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   36   +3       1.72    59.84     5.79    53.83     4.68     5.02     0.00     0.00     0.13     3.20    22.11     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          26   36   -4       0.43    52.73    -2.72    51.43     4.58    -5.73     0.00     0.00     0.09     1.09     9.59     0.03R    0.00  
Arsenal          26   34   +2      -7.25    16.64    -6.06    52.48     4.60     4.76     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.61    14.58     0.01R    0.00  
Burnley          26   34   -9       5.41    77.80     2.28    47.76     4.43   -13.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.73     0.55R    0.01  
Southampton      26   31  -16       3.99    72.25    -0.45    45.20     4.58   -20.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.53     3.15R    0.11  
Newcastle        26   31  -16       2.49    64.64    -5.05    44.83     4.44   -20.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.32     3.39R    0.07  
Crystal_Palace   26   30   -9      -1.43    42.80    -2.25    44.23     4.49   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.31     3.30R    0.09  
Brighton         26   27   -7      -1.38    43.13     4.80    39.04     4.32   -13.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    20.67R    1.61  
Bournemouth      26   26  -14      -3.56    31.63    -3.34    37.32     4.24   -23.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.94R    3.92  
Aston_Villa      26   25  -16      -1.00    45.67     2.53    36.02     4.38   -25.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.45R    7.78  
West_Ham         26   24  -15      -5.54    22.35    -3.84    38.02     4.52   -19.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.67R    4.17  
Watford          26   24  -16      -4.59    26.32    -3.97    35.93     4.29   -23.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.89R    8.92  
Norwich          26   18  -24      -4.97    24.13    -1.11    28.96     4.30   -34.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.95R   73.32  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 21 February 2020, Derby 1 1 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       33   63  +23       4.19    68.08     2.17    86.05     4.96    31.11    66.43    86.71    99.73    90.83P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    33   59  +18       4.93    71.29     5.08    81.27     4.90    24.65    19.70    56.38    97.21    68.37P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          34   57  +11       3.87    66.47     1.23    74.43     4.81    12.37     2.03     9.36    69.43    24.06P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       33   55  +27      -2.14    40.15     9.29    77.81     4.92    34.48     8.58    29.04    89.94    50.28P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   55  +12       6.12    75.79     6.53    74.71     4.97    14.83     1.82     9.58    71.68    23.34P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         33   53  +10       3.46    65.60     3.63    71.92     5.02    11.59     0.80     4.15    50.73    14.43P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    33   53   +2       6.09    75.71    -0.34    70.81     4.99     2.00     0.38     2.10    38.17     9.08P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       33   50  +10       1.64    57.50     5.42    68.45     4.98    10.87     0.13     1.03    25.75     6.28P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         33   50   +3       0.98    54.52    -2.57    68.57     5.05     4.14     0.09     1.08    24.52     6.50P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        33   49   +2       6.38    77.63     5.36    67.06     4.95     2.47     0.02     0.32    15.36     2.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         33   48   +0       0.77    53.93    -2.89    65.97     4.92     0.35     0.02     0.22    10.90     2.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Derby           34   45   -4      -4.39    31.38    -8.17    60.56     4.71    -5.35     0.00     0.01     1.18     0.26P    0.21R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       33   44   +3      -2.41    39.38     1.08    61.61     4.90     2.73     0.00     0.01     2.46     0.57P    0.13R    0.00  
Birmingham      33   44   -7       3.04    64.09    -0.56    60.48     4.89    -9.14     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.20P    0.41R    0.00  
Reading         33   42   +4      -0.27    49.16     8.11    59.67     4.91     3.89     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.18P    0.66R    0.02  
QPR             33   42   -7       2.41    61.72     2.67    57.94     4.94   -10.30     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.06P    1.97R    0.08  
Hull            33   41   -4      -2.89    37.76    -1.37    58.57     4.98    -4.67     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.10P    1.44R    0.05  
Middlesbrough   33   37   -9      -7.91    17.50    -9.09    54.75     4.89    -8.78     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    6.47R    0.36  
Charlton        33   36   -6      -3.89    33.43     1.94    52.26     4.89    -8.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.76R    1.30  
Huddersfield    33   36  -14      -1.88    42.28    -3.13    50.88     4.80   -18.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.29R    2.91  
Stoke           33   34  -12      -7.22    19.81    -6.09    50.21     4.84   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.88R    3.86  
Wigan           33   31  -17      -6.51    22.18    -5.87    46.75     4.86   -20.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.23R   14.54  
Luton           33   30  -27      -3.46    35.02    -7.02    44.17     4.87   -33.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.92R   34.36  
Barnsley        33   28  -18      -9.35    14.03    -5.38    42.71     4.87   -23.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.62R   42.52  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 February 2020, Oxford_Utd 5 0 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            31   57  +24       2.73    62.81     5.53    80.30     4.91    32.73    43.04    63.42    93.79    72.04P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             30   57  +15      11.01    91.87     7.60    76.98     5.13    16.30    15.77    32.33    78.12    41.29P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              32   56   +5      12.70    93.68     5.89    72.04     4.63     4.51     1.94     5.89    40.60    10.74P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         33   55  +26      -1.49    42.88     7.88    74.89     4.34    33.70     7.40    20.25    73.46    35.36P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           31   54  +16      -0.77    45.93    -2.63    76.34     4.83    22.64    13.19    28.66    77.85    44.44P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           30   53  +15       1.77    58.51    -0.58    75.67     5.06    20.26    10.66    24.83    71.66    37.26P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              32   52  +14       0.77    53.40     3.11    73.07     4.58    21.18     3.10     9.99    54.88    22.28P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       30   51  +11       4.26    69.97     2.67    71.88     5.05    13.79     2.98     7.88    42.21    15.16P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           32   49   +9       3.54    66.75     6.38    66.88     4.59    11.12     0.13     0.59    10.63     2.55P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   48  +18      -0.11    49.40     9.62    70.42     4.79    25.36     1.24     4.32    34.56    11.68P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            31   48  +16      -3.13    35.11     2.81    68.37     4.87    19.84     0.54     1.78    19.97     6.64P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        31   43   +0      -1.86    41.40    -3.46    62.25     4.94     2.26     0.01     0.05     1.99     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       31   42   -7       1.67    58.81    -4.04    57.26     4.71   -10.90     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   31   39   -1      -0.89    46.28     3.35    55.41     4.81    -3.37     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         33   38   -3      -3.17    36.07     3.19    53.97     4.51    -1.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool            30   37   +0      -4.23    30.11    -0.31    56.69     4.98     0.84     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           30   35  -11      -2.36    38.77    -6.20    53.39     4.89   -11.97     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.13R    0.00  
MK_Dons              31   33   -9      -4.13    31.26    -1.25    47.60     4.68   -14.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.62R    0.00  
Rochdale             31   33  -16      -0.86    46.72    -1.47    48.08     4.73   -20.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.61R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        32   30  -14      -5.45    25.11    -1.06    44.50     4.47   -16.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.06R    0.00  
Tranmere             30   23  -25      -4.69    27.00    -3.15    34.31     4.53   -37.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.74R    1.11  
Southend             32   16  -46     -12.74     3.93   -18.82    26.81     4.22   -56.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.88R   31.08  
Bolton               29   11  -37      -3.39    33.08   -15.03    23.17     4.75   -50.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.91R   67.81  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 February 2020, Macclesfield 1 1 Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          33   63  +21       9.33    85.51     8.54    85.96     4.94    28.68    40.28    84.74    99.93    88.89P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           33   63  +14      10.29    88.35     3.13    83.79     4.94    18.40    20.89    67.93    99.61    76.29P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            33   61  +20       8.91    84.26     9.77    81.43     4.96    23.81    11.55    52.18    98.80    63.50P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         33   61  +17       4.80    70.43     0.59    84.17     4.96    24.94    25.13    73.78    99.65    81.85P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       32   54  +21       4.96    71.88    13.41    75.91     5.10    24.94     1.93    16.02    89.48    34.24P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        34   54   +6       8.27    83.20     6.90    69.80     4.65     5.20     0.03     0.98    45.87     8.92P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       34   52  +13      -1.64    42.61     2.83    70.31     4.73    15.80     0.04     1.48    56.37    16.46P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      33   52  +11       1.20    55.48     2.91    70.37     4.94    11.82     0.11     2.07    54.34    14.59P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         34   51   +6      -2.16    40.76    -3.48    69.12     4.74     8.52     0.03     0.80    42.84    12.45P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     34   46   +2      -2.77    37.93    -1.31    62.19     4.65     1.58     0.00     0.01     5.61     1.30P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     34   44   +0       3.37    65.79     9.04    58.23     4.62    -3.45     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    34   44   -6       3.40    66.10     2.34    58.13     4.58    -9.20     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Walsall          34   43  -11      -3.06    36.81   -10.33    58.76     4.72   -11.82     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.26P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     34   41   -1      -1.70    43.06     4.87    56.95     4.63    -1.87     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.05P    0.01R    0.01  
Grimsby          32   41   -2       0.83    54.69     2.81    57.25     4.94    -6.20     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.16P    0.01R    0.01  
Newport_County   31   40   +0      -1.55    42.89     0.71    59.86     5.23    -0.56     0.00     0.00     3.37     0.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    34   38   -9      -0.93    46.71     2.76    51.70     4.60   -13.36     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.25R    0.25  
Oldham           34   37  -15      -6.88    21.45   -10.76    52.39     4.66   -16.60     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.24R    0.24  
Macclesfield     34   36   -8      -1.53    43.35     4.43    48.60     4.39   -13.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.06R    1.06  
Scunthorpe       33   36   -9     -10.32    12.39   -10.32    54.97     5.00    -7.39     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.05P    0.12R    0.12  
Mansfield        34   35   -7     -14.84     4.51   -11.69    51.92     4.74    -6.34     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.26R    0.26  
Carlisle         33   35  -17      -4.92    28.56    -8.96    52.42     4.88   -17.57     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.39R    0.39  
Morecambe        34   30  -24      -4.93    28.05    -6.36    42.17     4.47   -30.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.08R   19.08  
Stevenage        34   22  -22     -17.05     1.58   -11.83    36.05     4.56   -25.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.57R   78.57  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 February 2020, Barnet 1 1 Harrogate_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             34   66  +30       8.91    84.33    14.26    85.28     4.71    34.22    80.58    99.56    85.35P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     35   60  +13       4.94    70.29     2.40    76.93     4.55    15.75     7.55    81.26    24.39P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            33   55   +4       9.73    86.83     3.90    72.76     4.93     4.01     1.75    47.57     9.60P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             34   54  +14      -4.24    32.08    -3.57    74.02     4.79    19.31     3.20    63.12    21.50P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   52  +14       4.73    71.15     8.96    73.61     5.23    17.63     2.77    57.73    14.64P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       33   51  +16      -6.92    21.52    -2.96    73.43     5.02    22.91     3.13    59.83    22.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     34   51  +11      -1.89    41.68     1.69    71.05     4.74    16.28     0.61    37.94    10.55P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            35   51   +8      -0.15    49.62     3.53    68.29     4.58    11.28     0.08    17.85     3.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     34   50   +0       2.86    62.92    -0.67    66.15     4.75    -0.38     0.03     8.15     1.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Stockport          35   50   -5       7.64    80.07     3.91    62.35     4.46    -9.23     0.01     1.35     0.19P    0.21R    0.00  
Woking             34   48   -7       8.20    81.92     3.72    62.44     4.71   -10.13     0.01     1.75     0.27P    0.44R    0.00  
Barnet             32   47   +7      -0.93    45.84     0.86    68.03     5.17     9.67     0.27    18.33     4.52P    0.02R    0.00  
Hartlepool         34   47   +4      -0.27    48.99     3.36    63.81     4.71     4.48     0.00     3.76     0.80P    0.09R    0.00  
Sutton_United      33   42   +3      -3.48    34.82     2.54    60.74     4.97     4.44     0.00     1.10     0.23P    1.17R    0.00  
Torquay            33   42   -6       2.72    62.34     4.69    57.58     4.99    -9.85     0.00     0.26     0.04P    5.84R    0.02  
Eastleigh          33   42   -6      -0.95    46.29    -2.14    57.68     4.85    -9.32     0.00     0.23     0.05P    4.91R    0.02  
Maidenhead         33   41   -7       3.01    64.42     4.24    57.47     4.94    -9.22     0.00     0.13     0.03P    6.64R    0.03  
Aldershot          34   40  -10       0.42    52.86     0.09    54.04     4.58   -13.47     0.00     0.01     0.00P   19.03R    0.11  
Wrexham            34   39   -2     -10.65    11.39    -6.56    55.40     4.69    -1.96     0.00     0.03     0.01P    9.32R    0.06  
Dag_&_Red          33   38   -5      -5.78    25.21    -3.13    54.21     4.84    -7.26     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.93R    0.13  
Chesterfield       34   37  -14      -6.93    21.76    -9.53    52.94     4.74   -14.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.09R    0.47  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   33  -20      -9.23    14.90   -12.76    46.97     4.62   -24.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.94R    4.70  
AFC_Fylde          32   32  -13     -12.42     7.25   -13.66    51.94     5.23   -12.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   33.64R    1.00  
Chorley            34   26  -29      -3.94    32.58    -3.14    36.62     4.36   -38.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.70R   93.46