Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 20 February 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 19 February 2020, Man_City 2 0 West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        26   76  +46      16.87    99.94     6.75   103.67     3.89    65.24    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   54  +38      -5.83    17.49    -4.68    81.10     4.02    57.24     0.01    95.26    99.94   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        26   50  +28       5.86    78.42    15.23    70.67     4.67    34.45     0.00     4.68    86.09    96.29    99.76     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   41   +7      -2.85    34.69    -5.19    60.95     4.56    12.20     0.00     0.03     4.48    34.32    79.27     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   40   +9      -5.44    22.06    -5.89    61.18     4.71    16.00     0.00     0.03     6.40    39.99    80.41     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   39   +4       6.97    83.37     9.74    54.82     4.63     3.28     0.00     0.00     0.44     4.88    27.08     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd          26   38   +9      -4.97    24.80    -1.69    58.50     4.59    14.99     0.00     0.00     2.33    18.40    64.22     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   36   +3       1.86    60.64     5.98    53.84     4.69     5.03     0.00     0.00     0.19     3.32    22.28     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          26   36   -4       0.36    51.99    -2.84    51.46     4.61    -5.65     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.11     9.66     0.02R    0.00  
Arsenal          26   34   +2      -7.45    15.88    -6.33    52.51     4.59     4.84     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.57    14.41     0.03R    0.00  
Burnley          26   34   -9       5.29    77.39     2.03    47.82     4.41   -13.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.68     0.50R    0.01  
Southampton      26   31  -16       3.97    72.08    -0.45    45.17     4.60   -20.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.61     3.29R    0.10  
Newcastle        26   31  -16       2.37    64.01    -5.25    44.88     4.43   -20.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.29     3.33R    0.07  
Crystal_Palace   26   30   -9      -1.46    42.45    -2.30    44.27     4.48   -12.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.33     3.30R    0.05  
Brighton         26   27   -7      -1.45    42.64     4.73    39.06     4.31   -13.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    20.47R    1.48  
Bournemouth      26   26  -14      -3.42    32.60    -3.10    37.27     4.25   -23.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.46R    3.97  
Aston_Villa      26   25  -16      -1.17    44.97     2.19    36.10     4.38   -25.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.71R    7.26  
West_Ham         26   24  -15      -5.52    22.62    -3.82    38.01     4.49   -19.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.94R    4.12  
Watford          26   24  -16      -4.70    25.89    -4.22    35.96     4.28   -23.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.70R    8.73  
Norwich          26   18  -24      -4.82    24.61    -0.89    28.86     4.27   -34.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.25R   74.22  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 February 2020, Birmingham 1 1 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       33   63  +23       4.27    68.69     2.28    86.04     4.96    31.10    66.43    86.58    99.67    90.86P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    33   59  +18       4.95    71.22     5.13    81.26     4.90    24.62    19.24    55.92    97.16    68.04P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          33   56  +11       4.05    67.49     0.99    74.82     5.01    12.40     2.59    11.04    70.75    25.45P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       33   55  +27      -2.14    39.97     9.22    77.81     4.89    34.48     8.54    28.53    89.83    49.65P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   55  +12       5.81    74.71     6.07    74.81     4.96    14.98     1.90     9.58    72.29    24.01P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         33   53  +10       3.53    65.83     3.70    71.93     4.97    11.60     0.68     3.81    50.24    14.18P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    33   53   +2       5.98    75.53    -0.47    70.85     4.99     2.06     0.34     2.11    38.21     8.99P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       33   50  +10       1.86    58.51     5.76    68.42     4.99    10.81     0.15     0.99    25.07     6.02P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         33   50   +3       1.16    55.24    -2.27    68.47     5.04     3.94     0.09     0.91    23.83     6.12P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        33   49   +2       6.04    76.00     4.92    67.13     4.94     2.54     0.02     0.30    15.43     2.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         33   48   +0       0.90    54.49    -2.71    65.91     4.93     0.26     0.02     0.21    10.67     2.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       33   44   +3      -2.31    39.74     1.23    61.54     4.93     2.62     0.00     0.01     2.37     0.49P    0.15R    0.00  
Derby           33   44   -4      -4.03    32.42    -8.18    61.00     4.96    -5.25     0.00     0.00     1.69     0.37P    0.23R    0.00  
Birmingham      33   44   -7       3.07    64.50    -0.57    60.49     4.90    -9.14     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.17P    0.41R    0.01  
Reading         33   42   +4      -0.18    49.69     8.21    59.62     4.88     3.81     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.16P    0.66R    0.01  
QPR             33   42   -7       2.61    62.37     3.08    57.81     4.92   -10.50     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.04P    1.94R    0.08  
Hull            33   41   -4      -2.97    37.12    -1.53    58.63     4.96    -4.56     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.10P    1.30R    0.05  
Middlesbrough   33   37   -9      -7.90    17.69    -9.07    54.73     4.89    -8.82     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    6.44R    0.41  
Charlton        33   36   -6      -4.21    32.00     1.39    52.43     4.90    -8.08     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   14.23R    1.27  
Huddersfield    33   36  -14      -1.87    42.23    -3.17    50.89     4.77   -18.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    25.06R    2.92  
Stoke           33   34  -12      -6.95    21.28    -5.69    50.14     4.89   -14.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.94R    4.09  
Wigan           33   31  -17      -6.39    22.68    -5.70    46.73     4.84   -20.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.62R   14.59  
Luton           33   30  -27      -3.28    35.77    -6.77    44.11     4.89   -33.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.97R   35.30  
Barnsley        33   28  -18      -9.61    13.02    -5.83    42.89     4.89   -22.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.03R   41.26  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 February 2020, Oxford_Utd 5 0 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            31   57  +24       2.60    62.05     5.40    80.33     4.89    32.80    43.34    63.74    94.00    72.35P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             30   57  +15      11.04    91.86     7.62    77.04     5.12    16.37    16.14    32.66    78.35    41.51P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              32   56   +5      12.81    93.83     6.01    72.05     4.65     4.48     1.93     5.82    40.72    10.91P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         33   55  +26      -1.51    42.83     7.82    74.92     4.35    33.71     7.37    20.40    73.75    35.83P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           31   54  +16      -0.75    45.80    -2.61    76.31     4.84    22.57    12.80    28.44    77.74    44.19P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           30   53  +15       1.82    58.83    -0.48    75.64     5.04    20.21    10.80    24.45    71.60    36.94P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              32   52  +14       0.73    53.29     3.02    73.13     4.58    21.23     3.19    10.32    55.39    22.45P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       30   51  +11       4.40    70.54     2.87    71.81     5.03    13.68     2.71     7.70    41.75    15.12P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           32   49   +9       3.51    66.39     6.32    66.87     4.60    11.10     0.14     0.62    10.63     2.56P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   48  +18       0.27    51.46    10.21    70.28     4.81    25.11     1.15     4.14    34.07    11.20P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            31   48  +16      -3.12    35.15     2.85    68.32     4.84    19.78     0.42     1.65    19.71     6.39P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        31   43   +0      -1.69    42.03    -3.18    62.21     4.94     2.15     0.01     0.05     1.94     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       31   42   -7       1.51    57.86    -4.37    57.34     4.70   -10.75     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   31   39   -1      -0.77    47.05     3.51    55.34     4.79    -3.46     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.03R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         33   38   -3      -3.30    35.62     2.94    54.01     4.54    -1.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.04R    0.00  
Blackpool            30   37   +0      -4.40    29.13    -0.53    56.75     5.01     0.94     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.02R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           30   35  -11      -2.11    40.09    -5.86    53.27     4.90   -12.14     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.14R    0.00  
MK_Dons              31   33   -9      -4.33    30.33    -1.48    47.70     4.66   -14.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.48R    0.00  
Rochdale             31   33  -16      -0.99    46.12    -1.67    48.09     4.72   -20.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.67R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        32   30  -14      -5.59    24.57    -1.30    44.53     4.48   -16.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.14R    0.00  
Tranmere             30   23  -25      -4.77    27.00    -3.26    34.36     4.52   -37.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.73R    1.20  
Southend             32   16  -46     -12.72     4.07   -18.86    26.86     4.21   -56.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.86R   30.31  
Bolton               29   11  -37      -3.42    32.84   -14.99    23.17     4.74   -50.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.90R   68.49  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 February 2020, Macclesfield 1 1 Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          33   63  +21       9.29    85.58     8.49    86.01     4.93    28.72    40.29    84.95    99.93    89.04P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           33   63  +14       9.97    87.37     2.72    83.88     4.96    18.53    21.21    67.97    99.59    76.36P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            33   61  +20       8.66    84.15     9.45    81.50     4.95    23.93    11.66    52.32    98.82    63.86P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         33   61  +17       4.96    71.10     0.81    84.15     4.96    24.90    24.66    73.36    99.62    81.47P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       32   54  +21       4.94    71.89    13.38    75.91     5.12    24.95     1.97    15.89    89.45    34.33P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        34   54   +6       8.24    83.00     6.89    69.76     4.66     5.14     0.02     0.99    45.43     8.81P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       34   52  +13      -1.84    41.59     2.53    70.38     4.74    15.87     0.04     1.59    56.86    16.79P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      33   52  +11       1.15    55.28     2.78    70.45     4.93    11.92     0.11     2.17    54.76    14.73P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         34   51   +6      -2.16    40.48    -3.49    69.10     4.71     8.51     0.03     0.74    42.44    11.99P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     34   46   +2      -2.78    38.04    -1.32    62.13     4.64     1.53     0.00     0.01     5.56     1.21P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     34   44   +0       3.34    65.45     9.00    58.22     4.60    -3.46     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    34   44   -6       3.45    66.31     2.40    58.16     4.61    -9.21     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          34   43  -11      -3.12    36.56   -10.37    58.75     4.71   -11.85     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     34   41   -1      -1.57    43.41     5.05    56.92     4.61    -1.94     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.06P    0.01R    0.01  
Grimsby          32   41   -2       0.98    55.55     2.99    57.25     4.93    -6.18     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   31   40   +0      -1.45    43.29     0.81    59.88     5.21    -0.56     0.00     0.00     3.39     0.72P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    34   38   -9      -0.90    46.94     2.82    51.73     4.59   -13.34     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.20R    0.20  
Oldham           34   37  -15      -6.87    21.78   -10.73    52.39     4.67   -16.59     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.23R    0.23  
Macclesfield     34   36   -8      -1.34    44.48     4.71    48.50     4.39   -13.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.08R    1.08  
Scunthorpe       33   36   -9     -10.30    12.30   -10.31    54.95     5.00    -7.41     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    0.09R    0.09  
Mansfield        34   35   -7     -14.82     4.58   -11.61    51.91     4.72    -6.35     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.23R    0.23  
Carlisle         33   35  -17      -5.08    27.94    -9.21    52.45     4.87   -17.53     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.36R    0.36  
Morecambe        34   30  -24      -4.87    28.42    -6.22    42.12     4.42   -30.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.24R   19.24  
Stevenage        34   22  -22     -16.90     1.68   -11.58    36.02     4.55   -25.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.55R   78.55  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 February 2020, Barnet 1 1 Harrogate_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             34   66  +30       8.77    83.80    14.16    85.31     4.70    34.27    81.06    99.61    85.85P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     35   60  +13       4.95    70.49     2.44    76.91     4.56    15.72     7.40    80.92    24.12P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            33   55   +4      10.08    87.45     4.37    72.66     4.91     3.83     1.66    46.40     8.91P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             34   54  +14      -4.15    32.24    -3.41    73.96     4.80    19.21     2.96    62.47    21.34P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   52  +14       4.58    70.28     8.77    73.65     5.20    17.69     2.80    58.59    14.89P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       33   51  +16      -7.00    21.18    -3.07    73.51     4.96    23.01     3.14    60.56    22.81P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     34   51  +11      -2.03    41.13     1.48    71.09     4.70    16.31     0.59    38.51    10.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            35   51   +8      -0.13    49.59     3.54    68.25     4.57    11.22     0.09    17.43     3.75P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     34   50   +0       2.69    62.08    -0.94    66.23     4.76    -0.27     0.05     8.39     1.61P    0.03R    0.00  
Stockport          35   50   -5       7.78    80.29     4.09    62.33     4.46    -9.26     0.00     1.34     0.19P    0.27R    0.00  
Woking             34   48   -7       8.39    82.21     4.02    62.37     4.74   -10.26     0.00     1.78     0.28P    0.49R    0.00  
Barnet             32   47   +7      -0.98    45.55     0.80    67.96     5.18     9.57     0.24    18.12     4.49P    0.03R    0.00  
Hartlepool         34   47   +4      -0.35    49.12     3.24    63.86     4.73     4.64     0.01     3.97     0.75P    0.13R    0.00  
Sutton_United      33   42   +3      -3.48    34.81     2.56    60.75     5.00     4.40     0.00     1.23     0.25P    1.18R    0.00  
Torquay            33   42   -6       2.79    62.79     4.88    57.56     4.97    -9.87     0.00     0.23     0.03P    5.95R    0.03  
Eastleigh          33   42   -6      -0.97    46.23    -2.20    57.70     4.85    -9.27     0.00     0.19     0.04P    5.09R    0.02  
Maidenhead         33   41   -7       3.03    64.62     4.28    57.43     4.97    -9.29     0.00     0.17     0.02P    6.84R    0.01  
Aldershot          34   40  -10       0.38    52.55    -0.02    54.07     4.57   -13.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.91R    0.10  
Wrexham            34   39   -2     -10.33    12.13    -6.21    55.35     4.71    -2.05     0.00     0.05     0.01P    9.74R    0.04  
Dag_&_Red          33   38   -5      -5.82    25.29    -3.16    54.21     4.86    -7.22     0.00     0.03     0.01P   17.04R    0.12  
Chesterfield       34   37  -14      -7.09    21.66    -9.79    53.04     4.71   -14.79     0.00     0.00     0.00P   25.32R    0.41  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   33  -20      -9.12    15.14   -12.60    46.91     4.65   -24.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.33R    4.81  
AFC_Fylde          32   32  -13     -12.66     6.94   -13.92    52.02     5.23   -11.83     0.00     0.01     0.00P   32.92R    1.04  
Chorley            34   26  -29      -3.93    32.70    -3.29    36.58     4.33   -38.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.74R   93.41