Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 19 February 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 19 February 2020, Man_City 2 0 West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        26   76  +46      16.81    99.93     6.65   103.72     3.89    65.31    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   54  +38      -5.77    17.78    -4.63    81.05     4.04    57.20     0.01    94.91    99.92   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        26   50  +28       5.81    78.41    15.13    70.73     4.65    34.52     0.00     5.01    86.52    96.41    99.74     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   41   +7      -3.01    33.80    -5.45    60.95     4.58    12.22     0.00     0.04     4.31    34.11    79.10     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   40   +9      -5.56    21.85    -6.11    61.26     4.71    16.13     0.00     0.03     6.30    40.34    81.04     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   39   +4       7.01    83.31     9.80    54.82     4.64     3.29     0.00     0.00     0.43     4.71    27.21     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   38   +9      -4.94    24.98    -1.62    58.47     4.64    14.96     0.00     0.01     2.19    18.36    63.86     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   36   +3       1.80    60.35     5.89    53.85     4.70     5.04     0.00     0.00     0.17     3.37    22.30     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          26   36   -4       0.43    52.41    -2.72    51.40     4.61    -5.76     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.06     9.63     0.02R    0.00  
Arsenal          26   34   +2      -7.26    16.46    -6.08    52.46     4.61     4.75     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.53    14.52     0.02R    0.00  
Burnley          26   34   -9       5.38    77.86     2.26    47.74     4.42   -14.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.54     0.52R    0.00  
Southampton      26   31  -16       3.97    72.11    -0.49    45.20     4.59   -20.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.47     3.39R    0.12  
Newcastle        26   31  -16       2.36    63.80    -5.26    44.85     4.41   -20.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.29     3.32R    0.07  
Crystal_Palace   26   30   -9      -1.35    43.44    -2.09    44.19     4.47   -12.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.29     3.38R    0.07  
Brighton         26   27   -7      -1.52    42.27     4.62    39.06     4.33   -13.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    20.72R    1.58  
Bournemouth      26   26  -14      -3.44    32.36    -3.15    37.32     4.26   -23.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.24R    3.79  
Aston_Villa      26   25  -16      -1.12    44.91     2.29    36.13     4.38   -25.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.72R    7.37  
West_Ham         26   24  -15      -5.64    22.10    -4.04    38.08     4.49   -19.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.46R    4.12  
Watford          26   24  -16      -4.61    26.21    -4.02    35.96     4.27   -23.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.04R    8.68  
Norwich          26   18  -24      -4.89    24.54    -0.99    28.89     4.29   -34.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.15R   74.19  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 February 2020, Birmingham 1 1 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       33   63  +23       4.27    68.46     2.27    86.07     4.98    31.16    66.71    86.66    99.72    90.95P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    33   59  +18       4.82    70.96     4.94    81.27     4.88    24.64    19.21    55.88    97.25    68.02P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          33   56  +11       4.16    67.82     1.10    74.71     5.01    12.29     2.48    10.57    70.18    24.63P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       33   55  +27      -2.20    39.75     9.15    77.83     4.91    34.49     8.33    28.64    89.82    50.13P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   55  +12       6.07    75.84     6.51    74.68     4.98    14.79     1.90     9.57    71.27    23.75P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         33   53  +10       3.72    66.48     4.04    71.77     4.98    11.35     0.63     3.76    49.35    13.88P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    33   53   +2       5.87    74.93    -0.65    70.92     5.01     2.16     0.43     2.35    38.89     9.32P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       33   50  +10       1.72    58.13     5.46    68.47     5.00    10.91     0.13     1.05    25.68     6.23P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         33   50   +3       1.07    54.92    -2.41    68.55     5.04     4.10     0.12     0.95    24.48     6.14P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        33   49   +2       6.48    77.88     5.55    66.98     4.93     2.35     0.03     0.28    14.86     2.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         33   48   +0       0.72    53.63    -2.98    66.01     4.92     0.38     0.03     0.25    11.24     2.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       33   44   +3      -2.52    38.99     0.93    61.65     4.93     2.76     0.00     0.02     2.52     0.53P    0.14R    0.00  
Derby           33   44   -4      -4.06    32.30    -8.19    60.99     4.95    -5.26     0.00     0.01     1.82     0.41P    0.23R    0.00  
Birmingham      33   44   -7       3.05    64.53    -0.57    60.50     4.92    -9.12     0.00     0.00     1.09     0.15P    0.45R    0.00  
Reading         33   42   +4      -0.22    49.48     8.14    59.66     4.92     3.86     0.00     0.01     0.90     0.18P    0.67R    0.01  
QPR             33   42   -7       2.24    60.96     2.45    58.02     4.95   -10.19     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.05P    2.00R    0.08  
Hull            33   41   -4      -2.66    38.60    -1.07    58.50     4.98    -4.76     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.11P    1.53R    0.08  
Middlesbrough   33   37   -9      -7.92    17.68    -9.13    54.79     4.89    -8.74     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.02P    6.11R    0.31  
Charlton        33   36   -6      -3.82    33.93     1.96    52.26     4.89    -8.30     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    14.87R    1.28  
Huddersfield    33   36  -14      -2.00    41.77    -3.31    50.93     4.80   -18.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   24.84R    2.82  
Stoke           33   34  -12      -7.21    20.04    -6.08    50.24     4.88   -14.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.97R    4.00  
Wigan           33   31  -17      -6.42    22.72    -5.73    46.74     4.81   -20.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.47R   14.35  
Luton           33   30  -27      -3.46    35.17    -7.03    44.12     4.88   -33.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.98R   34.81  
Barnsley        33   28  -18      -9.31    13.85    -5.35    42.74     4.86   -22.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.73R   42.26  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 February 2020, Oxford_Utd 5 0 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            31   57  +24       2.78    62.92     5.57    80.28     4.88    32.72    43.18    63.01    93.89    71.74P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             30   57  +15      10.93    91.56     7.53    77.04     5.13    16.39    16.17    32.53    78.44    41.36P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              32   56   +5      12.88    93.98     6.10    72.01     4.63     4.47     1.83     5.72    40.21    10.63P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         33   55  +26      -1.51    42.83     7.85    74.88     4.35    33.63     7.13    19.86    73.22    35.40P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           31   54  +16      -1.08    44.39    -3.06    76.41     4.85    22.70    13.16    29.25    78.25    44.70P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           30   53  +15       1.81    58.70    -0.50    75.67     5.09    20.28    10.72    24.84    71.16    37.32P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              32   52  +14       0.70    53.38     3.06    73.09     4.60    21.17     3.13    10.11    55.33    22.44P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       30   51  +11       4.38    70.73     2.84    71.88     5.04    13.73     2.83     7.83    42.24    15.10P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           32   49   +9       3.58    66.72     6.43    66.84     4.62    11.06     0.18     0.61    10.69     2.62P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   48  +18      -0.01    50.14     9.76    70.39     4.81    25.33     1.24     4.41    34.66    11.66P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            31   48  +16      -3.13    35.23     2.80    68.30     4.86    19.80     0.43     1.77    19.68     6.51P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        31   43   +0      -1.70    42.04    -3.21    62.18     4.95     2.09     0.01     0.05     1.93     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       31   42   -7       1.47    57.56    -4.40    57.41     4.73   -10.68     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   31   39   -1      -0.87    46.28     3.43    55.41     4.81    -3.39     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         33   38   -3      -3.14    35.93     3.15    53.94     4.54    -1.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool            30   37   +0      -4.41    29.50    -0.55    56.78     5.02     0.99     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           30   35  -11      -1.98    40.69    -5.69    53.21     4.90   -12.27     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.14R    0.00  
MK_Dons              31   33   -9      -4.32    30.20    -1.53    47.66     4.67   -14.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.54R    0.00  
Rochdale             31   33  -16      -0.87    46.65    -1.49    48.07     4.74   -20.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.72R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        32   30  -14      -5.49    24.95    -1.14    44.51     4.48   -16.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.20R    0.00  
Tranmere             30   23  -25      -4.72    27.03    -3.15    34.34     4.55   -37.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.60R    1.17  
Southend             32   16  -46     -12.68     4.13   -18.71    26.82     4.22   -56.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.84R   30.98  
Bolton               29   11  -37      -3.46    32.85   -15.10    23.20     4.73   -50.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.91R   67.84  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 February 2020, Macclesfield 1 1 Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          33   63  +21       9.41    86.08     8.67    85.95     4.94    28.67    40.34    84.65    99.93    88.82P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           33   63  +14      10.10    87.98     2.90    83.82     4.95    18.49    20.85    68.02    99.63    76.23P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            33   61  +20       8.70    83.74     9.52    81.47     4.93    23.84    11.73    52.35    98.79    63.93P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         33   61  +17       4.97    70.92     0.92    84.09     4.98    24.80    24.94    73.42    99.60    81.45P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       32   54  +21       5.11    72.61    13.62    75.87     5.16    24.86     1.96    16.16    89.13    34.19P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        34   54   +6       8.21    82.82     6.80    69.81     4.66     5.18     0.03     0.96    45.92     9.04P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       34   52  +13      -1.75    42.18     2.70    70.38     4.74    15.86     0.04     1.57    56.69    16.74P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      33   52  +11       1.18    55.29     2.85    70.38     4.95    11.81     0.09     2.09    54.06    14.65P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         34   51   +6      -2.24    39.92    -3.56    69.17     4.71     8.57     0.01     0.74    42.89    12.23P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     34   46   +2      -2.82    37.57    -1.39    62.20     4.61     1.66     0.00     0.01     5.58     1.25P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     34   44   +0       3.27    65.16     8.91    58.24     4.61    -3.41     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    34   44   -6       3.38    66.06     2.24    58.22     4.60    -9.13     0.00     0.00     0.82     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          34   43  -11      -2.83    38.09   -10.02    58.63     4.71   -11.98     0.00     0.00     1.03     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     34   41   -1      -1.70    43.00     4.87    56.94     4.63    -1.89     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          32   41   -2       0.89    55.00     2.81    57.31     4.93    -6.09     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.12P    0.01R    0.01  
Newport_County   31   40   +0      -1.50    43.12     0.74    59.86     5.24    -0.55     0.00     0.01     3.36     0.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient    34   38   -9      -0.87    46.96     2.85    51.69     4.61   -13.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.23R    0.23  
Oldham           34   37  -15      -6.97    21.45   -10.92    52.42     4.65   -16.58     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.21R    0.21  
Macclesfield     34   36   -8      -1.32    44.77     4.68    48.55     4.41   -13.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.11R    1.11  
Scunthorpe       33   36   -9     -10.43    12.00   -10.57    55.02     4.97    -7.34     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.06P    0.08R    0.08  
Mansfield        34   35   -7     -14.78     4.60   -11.59    51.89     4.74    -6.39     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.28R    0.28  
Carlisle         33   35  -17      -5.01    28.19    -9.07    52.40     4.90   -17.57     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.40R    0.40  
Morecambe        34   30  -24      -4.88    28.11    -6.15    42.12     4.44   -30.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.65R   19.65  
Stevenage        34   22  -22     -17.11     1.64   -11.84    36.09     4.56   -25.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.03R   78.03  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 February 2020, Barnet 1 1 Harrogate_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             34   66  +30       8.65    83.50    13.95    85.39     4.75    34.38    81.19    99.53    86.03P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     35   60  +13       4.83    69.90     2.25    76.95     4.57    15.79     7.55    81.07    24.45P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            33   55   +4       9.91    87.33     4.10    72.72     4.95     3.93     1.82    47.22     9.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Yeovil             34   54  +14      -3.95    32.90    -3.12    73.93     4.80    19.20     2.90    62.23    21.08P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   52  +14       4.67    70.85     8.89    73.63     5.21    17.66     2.66    58.53    14.64P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       33   51  +16      -6.90    21.60    -2.91    73.46     4.97    22.95     2.92    60.09    22.43P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     34   51  +11      -1.91    41.42     1.67    71.04     4.75    16.24     0.54    38.17    10.42P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            35   51   +8      -0.20    49.37     3.44    68.25     4.57    11.18     0.11    17.33     3.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     34   50   +0       2.70    62.27    -0.91    66.24     4.76    -0.25     0.03     8.57     1.70P    0.03R    0.00  
Stockport          35   50   -5       7.93    80.63     4.31    62.33     4.50    -9.30     0.01     1.42     0.24P    0.25R    0.00  
Woking             34   48   -7       8.19    81.90     3.75    62.42     4.72   -10.17     0.01     1.79     0.27P    0.49R    0.00  
Barnet             32   47   +7      -0.88    46.14     0.96    67.94     5.19     9.57     0.27    18.20     4.49P    0.02R    0.00  
Hartlepool         34   47   +4      -0.36    48.61     3.20    63.87     4.73     4.61     0.01     3.99     0.81P    0.13R    0.00  
Sutton_United      33   42   +3      -3.46    34.70     2.60    60.74     4.98     4.37     0.00     1.17     0.26P    1.17R    0.00  
Torquay            33   42   -6       2.47    61.64     4.31    57.65     5.00    -9.72     0.00     0.28     0.03P    5.54R    0.03  
Eastleigh          33   42   -6      -0.78    46.96    -1.92    57.60     4.84    -9.44     0.00     0.21     0.04P    5.16R    0.04  
Maidenhead         33   41   -7       3.00    64.63     4.18    57.47     4.95    -9.23     0.00     0.14     0.02P    6.59R    0.04  
Aldershot          34   40  -10       0.43    52.81     0.11    54.03     4.60   -13.50     0.00     0.01     0.00    19.24R    0.13  
Wrexham            34   39   -2     -10.32    12.05    -6.13    55.34     4.67    -2.05     0.00     0.03     0.01P    9.54R    0.06  
Dag_&_Red          33   38   -5      -5.89    25.11    -3.24    54.19     4.85    -7.26     0.00     0.03     0.00P   17.10R    0.15  
Chesterfield       34   37  -14      -7.11    21.56    -9.78    53.00     4.73   -14.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.61R    0.47  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   33  -20      -9.14    15.01   -12.63    46.94     4.66   -24.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.13R    4.72  
AFC_Fylde          32   32  -13     -12.47     7.20   -13.68    51.99     5.27   -11.89     0.00     0.01     0.00P   33.31R    1.09  
Chorley            34   26  -29      -4.01    32.70    -3.42    36.64     4.35   -38.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.69R   93.28