Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 16 February 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 February 2020, Arsenal 4 0 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        26   76  +46      16.85    99.93     6.67   103.68     3.86    65.31   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   51  +36      -6.22    15.74    -4.68    80.74     4.16    57.92     0.00    94.00    99.77    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        26   50  +28       5.77    78.30    15.05    70.74     4.67    34.52     0.00     5.78    83.27    96.01    99.78     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          25   41   +9      -2.07    38.48    -4.20    62.85     4.82    15.02     0.00     0.18     9.09    49.87    88.25     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   40   +9      -5.58    21.82    -6.16    61.24     4.73    16.12     0.00     0.03     6.15    35.80    82.02     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   39   +4       6.88    83.05     9.63    54.83     4.64     3.32     0.00     0.00     0.40     4.02    29.17     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   36   +3       1.75    59.85     5.90    53.81     4.69     5.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     2.88    23.95     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          26   36   -4       0.33    51.91    -2.85    51.51     4.58    -5.61     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.90    10.89     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd          25   35   +7      -6.23    19.26    -3.01    56.36     4.83    12.28     0.00     0.01     0.99     9.04    46.76     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal          26   34   +2      -7.33    16.22    -6.14    52.50     4.60     4.82     0.00     0.00     0.10     1.39    16.01     0.02R    0.00  
Burnley          26   34   -9       5.35    77.78     2.23    47.79     4.40   -14.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.82     0.55R    0.00  
Southampton      26   31  -16       3.97    72.16    -0.43    45.21     4.60   -20.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.65     3.16R    0.10  
Newcastle        26   31  -16       2.33    63.83    -5.22    44.87     4.42   -20.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.37     3.33R    0.06  
Crystal_Palace   26   30   -9      -1.37    43.16    -2.15    44.24     4.44   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.29     3.40R    0.06  
Brighton         26   27   -7      -1.49    42.51     4.73    39.11     4.33   -13.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    20.37R    1.58  
Bournemouth      26   26  -14      -3.47    32.30    -3.11    37.27     4.23   -23.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.37R    3.91  
Aston_Villa      26   25  -16      -1.07    45.30     2.47    36.06     4.38   -25.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    52.20R    7.45  
West_Ham         25   24  -13      -5.18    23.89    -4.03    38.30     4.61   -20.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    30.95R    3.98  
Watford          26   24  -16      -4.56    26.51    -3.94    35.92     4.30   -23.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.28R    8.77  
Norwich          26   18  -24      -4.78    24.71    -0.77    28.83     4.29   -34.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.34R   74.08  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 February 2020, Birmingham 1 1 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       33   63  +23       4.17    68.17     2.16    86.11     4.93    31.19    66.98    87.11    99.73    91.09P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    33   59  +18       4.96    71.49     5.13    81.30     4.87    24.67    19.14    56.17    97.33    68.44P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          33   56  +11       4.66    69.75     1.84    74.56     5.06    12.07     2.42    10.33    69.25    24.29P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       33   55  +27      -2.11    40.14     9.29    77.82     4.94    34.45     8.39    28.52    89.77    49.93P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   55  +12       5.98    75.44     6.38    74.78     4.94    14.92     1.79     9.57    71.98    23.68P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         33   53  +10       3.56    65.80     3.76    71.88     4.98    11.52     0.65     3.65    50.12    14.01P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    33   53   +2       6.00    75.58    -0.52    70.90     4.98     2.13     0.35     2.15    38.74     9.32P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       33   50  +10       1.77    58.23     5.61    68.39     4.96    10.79     0.13     0.97    24.81     6.01P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         33   50   +3       0.99    54.30    -2.49    68.56     5.07     4.12     0.11     0.95    24.77     6.21P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        33   49   +2       6.29    77.26     5.27    67.07     4.95     2.49     0.02     0.31    15.38     2.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         33   48   +0       0.76    53.81    -2.87    65.96     4.92     0.31     0.03     0.21    10.89     2.53P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       33   44   +3      -2.27    40.17     1.29    61.53     4.94     2.62     0.00     0.02     2.47     0.56P    0.13R    0.00  
Derby           33   44   -4      -4.10    32.02    -8.27    61.02     4.94    -5.21     0.00     0.02     1.78     0.46P    0.22R    0.00  
Birmingham      33   44   -7       2.84    63.65    -0.87    60.60     4.90    -9.00     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.18P    0.39R    0.01  
Reading         33   42   +4      -0.30    48.90     8.03    59.64     4.92     3.83     0.00     0.01     0.86     0.12P    0.67R    0.01  
QPR             33   42   -7       2.31    61.03     2.53    57.95     4.96   -10.29     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.03P    1.99R    0.11  
Hull            33   41   -4      -2.89    37.43    -1.44    58.56     4.97    -4.67     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.12P    1.41R    0.08  
Middlesbrough   33   37   -9      -7.91    17.51    -9.10    54.75     4.88    -8.76     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.02P    6.35R    0.38  
Charlton        33   36   -6      -4.10    32.60     1.65    52.36     4.90    -8.21     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   14.52R    1.35  
Huddersfield    33   36  -14      -1.73    42.84    -2.93    50.81     4.80   -18.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.61R    2.90  
Stoke           33   34  -12      -7.27    19.93    -6.15    50.21     4.87   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.81R    4.00  
Wigan           33   31  -17      -6.53    22.14    -5.93    46.77     4.85   -20.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.17R   14.59  
Luton           33   30  -27      -3.38    35.32    -6.93    44.08     4.85   -33.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.17R   34.65  
Barnsley        33   28  -18      -9.38    13.68    -5.43    42.78     4.86   -22.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.54R   41.93  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 February 2020, Accrington_Stanley 4 3 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            31   57  +24       2.49    61.33     5.17    80.41     4.92    32.94    43.97    64.30    94.49    72.84P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             30   57  +15      10.99    91.89     7.58    77.00     5.13    16.32    16.00    32.34    79.34    41.24P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              32   56   +5      12.82    93.74     6.03    72.03     4.60     4.45     2.03     5.93    41.65    11.11P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         33   55  +26      -1.63    42.37     7.65    74.90     4.37    33.69     7.32    20.52    74.94    36.07P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           31   54  +16      -0.91    45.26    -2.81    76.32     4.86    22.62    12.86    29.17    78.91    45.06P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           30   53  +15       2.01    59.81    -0.22    75.66     5.08    20.29    10.64    24.84    72.63    37.87P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              32   52  +14       0.68    53.00     3.00    73.15     4.58    21.25     3.13    10.37    57.07    23.06P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       30   51  +11       4.42    70.57     2.94    71.90     5.03    13.83     2.90     7.89    43.94    15.66P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            31   48  +16      -3.06    35.41     2.87    68.31     4.88    19.75     0.48     1.78    21.32     6.98P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           31   46   +8       2.39    61.81     6.07    65.45     4.85    10.41     0.07     0.38     7.67     1.77P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           30   45  +13       0.26    51.65     7.64    68.84     5.04    20.31     0.59     2.43    25.59     7.78P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        31   43   +0      -1.76    41.65    -3.34    62.21     4.96     2.17     0.01     0.05     2.11     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       31   42   -7       1.74    59.23    -3.98    57.30     4.74   -10.80     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   31   39   -1      -0.79    46.88     3.50    55.42     4.82    -3.36     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         33   38   -3      -3.16    36.05     3.11    53.88     4.51    -1.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Blackpool            30   37   +0      -4.35    29.82    -0.44    56.71     5.01     0.85     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           30   35  -11      -2.08    40.05    -5.84    53.23     4.92   -12.19     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
MK_Dons              31   33   -9      -4.28    30.73    -1.43    47.62     4.70   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.78R    0.00  
Rochdale             31   33  -16      -0.90    46.40    -1.52    48.05     4.71   -20.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.89R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        31   30   -9      -6.09    22.16     0.66    45.77     4.69   -11.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.89R    0.00  
Tranmere             30   23  -25      -4.72    27.51    -3.31    34.39     4.55   -37.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.62R    1.54  
Southend             31   16  -45     -11.68     5.23   -18.09    28.01     4.49   -55.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.68R   25.69  
Bolton               29   11  -37      -3.49    32.45   -15.24    23.24     4.73   -50.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.93R   72.76  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 February 2020, Cambridge_Utd 2 1 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          33   63  +21       9.25    85.67     8.42    86.01     4.97    28.74    38.35    84.19    99.93    88.72P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           33   63  +14       9.89    87.42     2.57    83.91     4.92    18.61    19.77    67.86    99.69    76.43P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            33   61  +20       8.86    84.34     9.77    81.43     4.95    23.78    10.56    50.67    98.70    62.59P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         32   60  +17       5.84    74.72     1.51    84.95     5.19    25.51    29.50    76.95    99.64    83.98P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       32   54  +21       5.11    72.75    13.62    75.87     5.13    24.85     1.66    15.42    89.18    33.66P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        34   54   +6       8.14    82.51     6.73    69.87     4.64     5.26     0.02     0.89    46.54     8.95P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       34   52  +13      -1.78    42.17     2.62    70.33     4.74    15.84     0.03     1.41    56.52    16.29P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      33   52  +11       1.19    55.32     2.90    70.37     4.94    11.79     0.09     1.86    54.15    14.76P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         34   51   +6      -2.02    41.24    -3.31    69.08     4.73     8.47     0.02     0.74    42.47    11.97P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     34   46   +2      -2.66    38.25    -1.16    62.15     4.62     1.59     0.00     0.01     5.47     1.14P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     34   44   +0       3.24    64.98     8.85    58.22     4.62    -3.43     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    34   44   -6       3.26    65.48     2.18    58.23     4.60    -9.10     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          34   43  -11      -3.01    37.07   -10.30    58.68     4.72   -11.95     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.19P    0.00R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     34   41   -1      -1.76    42.65     4.79    56.93     4.63    -1.89     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          32   41   -2       0.89    54.81     2.86    57.27     4.94    -6.13     0.00     0.00     0.82     0.15P    0.01R    0.01  
Newport_County   31   40   +0      -1.67    42.28     0.59    59.94     5.23    -0.47     0.00     0.00     3.46     0.72P    0.01R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient    34   38   -9      -0.81    47.32     2.95    51.68     4.61   -13.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.21R    0.21  
Oldham           34   37  -15      -7.02    21.08   -10.99    52.47     4.67   -16.49     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.19R    0.19  
Scunthorpe       33   36   -9     -10.21    12.37   -10.18    54.96     4.97    -7.41     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.06P    0.08R    0.08  
Mansfield        34   35   -7     -14.78     4.49   -11.55    51.90     4.74    -6.37     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.24R    0.24  
Macclesfield     33   35   -8      -1.20    45.12     4.33    48.41     4.60   -14.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.37R    1.37  
Carlisle         33   35  -17      -5.06    27.95    -9.17    52.44     4.91   -17.53     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.35R    0.35  
Morecambe        34   30  -24      -4.97    27.88    -6.29    42.12     4.45   -30.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.40R   19.40  
Stevenage        34   22  -22     -17.01     1.56   -11.73    36.01     4.53   -25.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.13R   78.13  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 February 2020, Ebbsfleet_United 1 0 Chorley; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             33   63  +29       7.56    80.47    13.72    84.09     4.96    33.85    73.07    98.80    79.45P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     34   59  +13       5.07    71.32     2.10    77.22     4.78    15.61    11.38    81.18    27.36P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            33   55   +4      10.16    87.89     4.54    72.62     4.91     3.81     2.18    45.16     9.20P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             34   54  +14      -4.28    31.57    -3.62    73.99     4.81    19.28     4.10    62.02    22.05P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   52  +14       4.82    71.30     9.13    73.53     5.17    17.52     3.46    56.71    15.05P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       33   51  +16      -6.88    21.55    -2.98    73.44     4.98    22.93     3.95    59.56    23.03P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     34   51  +11      -1.98    41.03     1.61    71.05     4.75    16.27     0.89    37.55    10.75P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            35   51   +8      -0.05    50.02     3.67    68.21     4.54    11.14     0.12    16.40     3.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     33   50   +1       3.55    65.88    -0.65    67.24     4.97     0.13     0.21    12.41     2.41P    0.02R    0.00  
Stockport          35   50   -5       7.66    80.17     3.91    62.40     4.45    -9.20     0.00     1.37     0.21P    0.23R    0.00  
Woking             34   48   -7       8.22    82.00     3.74    62.42     4.72   -10.18     0.00     1.60     0.21P    0.49R    0.00  
Hartlepool         34   47   +4      -0.35    48.65     3.24    63.87     4.75     4.62     0.02     3.85     0.78P    0.12R    0.00  
Barnet             31   46   +7      -0.64    46.96     0.79    68.48     5.41     9.81     0.61    21.56     5.65P    0.02R    0.00  
Sutton_United      33   42   +3      -3.49    34.45     2.57    60.74     5.00     4.38     0.00     1.16     0.25P    1.16R    0.00  
Torquay            33   42   -6       2.48    61.54     4.33    57.68     4.99    -9.70     0.00     0.22     0.03P    5.51R    0.03  
Eastleigh          33   42   -6      -0.91    46.39    -2.08    57.66     4.84    -9.34     0.00     0.21     0.03P    4.96R    0.02  
Maidenhead         33   41   -7       2.91    64.10     4.13    57.50     4.95    -9.16     0.00     0.16     0.02P    6.43R    0.03  
Aldershot          34   40  -10       0.42    52.74     0.10    54.08     4.58   -13.43     0.00     0.01     0.00P   18.72R    0.11  
Wrexham            34   39   -2     -10.46    11.61    -6.33    55.39     4.68    -1.98     0.00     0.03     0.01P    9.30R    0.06  
Dag_&_Red          33   38   -5      -5.76    25.26    -3.15    54.24     4.86    -7.17     0.00     0.02     0.01P   17.25R    0.12  
Chesterfield       34   37  -14      -6.99    21.62    -9.60    52.94     4.75   -14.95     0.00     0.00     0.00P   26.47R    0.51  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   33  -20      -9.08    14.94   -12.54    46.92     4.67   -24.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.09R    4.69  
AFC_Fylde          32   32  -13     -12.30     7.40   -13.42    51.95     5.26   -11.98     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.53R    1.03  
Chorley            34   26  -29      -3.96    32.84    -3.22    36.61     4.34   -38.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.69R   93.42