Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 15 February 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 February 2020, Norwich 0 1 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        26   76  +46      16.81    99.92     6.69   103.65     3.92    65.19   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   51  +36      -6.18    15.86    -4.45    80.73     4.15    57.86     0.00    93.85    99.76    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        26   50  +28       5.67    77.82    14.92    70.86     4.67    34.70     0.00     5.98    84.76    96.59    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          25   41   +9      -2.03    38.63    -4.13    62.80     4.84    15.01     0.00     0.15     8.93    52.36    89.09     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   39   +4       6.94    83.08     9.68    54.79     4.66     3.27     0.00     0.00     0.44     4.61    31.55     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   37   +8      -6.50    17.71    -5.94    60.24     4.96    16.09     0.00     0.02     4.86    31.24    77.48     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   36   +3       1.87    60.62     6.01    53.82     4.70     5.01     0.00     0.00     0.16     3.15    25.86     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          26   36   -4       0.34    52.28    -2.84    51.53     4.59    -5.56     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.06    11.91     0.05R    0.00  
Man_Utd          25   35   +7      -6.04    20.02    -2.76    56.33     4.87    12.22     0.00     0.00     0.99    10.02    49.04     0.00R    0.00  
Burnley          26   34   -9       5.53    78.70     2.41    47.69     4.40   -14.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     2.11     0.66R    0.01  
Arsenal          25   31   -2      -7.49    15.40    -7.84    50.92     4.84     0.79     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.84    10.83     0.14R    0.00  
Newcastle        25   31  -12       2.27    63.68    -3.58    46.16     4.64   -16.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.13     2.18R    0.02  
Southampton      26   31  -16       3.97    72.10    -0.49    45.22     4.59   -20.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.73     3.57R    0.14  
Crystal_Palace   26   30   -9      -1.56    41.96    -2.39    44.22     4.48   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.41     3.73R    0.10  
Brighton         26   27   -7      -1.41    42.94     4.72    39.10     4.33   -13.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    21.63R    1.61  
Bournemouth      26   26  -14      -3.45    32.33    -3.13    37.23     4.24   -23.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.49R    4.07  
Aston_Villa      25   25  -15      -0.30    49.36     2.18    36.79     4.54   -25.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    47.33R    6.17  
West_Ham         25   24  -13      -5.18    24.02    -4.00    38.30     4.63   -20.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    31.74R    4.21  
Watford          26   24  -16      -4.75    25.77    -4.25    36.00     4.31   -23.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.87R    8.90  
Norwich          26   18  -24      -4.77    25.02    -0.80    28.85     4.28   -34.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.61R   74.77  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 February 2020, Birmingham 1 1 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       33   63  +23       4.32    68.64     2.33    86.08     4.93    31.16    66.36    86.71    99.73    90.78P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    33   59  +18       4.81    70.66     4.93    81.32     4.91    24.70    19.64    56.25    97.16    68.25P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          33   56  +11       4.06    67.24     1.03    74.75     5.05    12.33     2.51    10.95    70.26    25.27P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       33   55  +27      -2.09    40.00     9.28    77.80     4.91    34.44     8.30    28.40    89.62    49.53P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   55  +12       6.11    75.70     6.56    74.69     4.95    14.82     1.82     9.10    71.62    23.32P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         33   53  +10       3.58    65.97     3.77    71.83     4.96    11.47     0.64     3.78    49.32    13.96P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    33   53   +2       5.88    74.95    -0.65    70.92     5.00     2.16     0.39     2.23    38.84     9.38P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       33   50  +10       1.92    58.75     5.74    68.40     5.00    10.82     0.15     0.99    25.36     6.17P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         33   50   +3       1.04    54.66    -2.44    68.51     5.07     4.09     0.13     1.02    24.41     6.24P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        33   49   +2       6.19    76.81     5.19    67.13     4.94     2.56     0.03     0.28    15.56     2.97P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         33   48   +0       0.61    53.34    -3.14    66.03     4.92     0.43     0.02     0.23    11.02     2.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       33   44   +3      -2.29    40.32     1.23    61.60     4.91     2.71     0.00     0.02     2.47     0.57P    0.16R    0.00  
Derby           33   44   -4      -3.93    32.83    -8.00    60.98     4.97    -5.29     0.00     0.02     1.74     0.42P    0.25R    0.00  
Birmingham      33   44   -7       3.01    64.15    -0.61    60.53     4.90    -9.07     0.00     0.00     1.16     0.21P    0.45R    0.00  
Reading         33   42   +4      -0.45    48.35     7.81    59.70     4.91     3.93     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.15P    0.65R    0.02  
QPR             33   42   -7       2.52    62.01     2.88    57.85     4.93   -10.44     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P    2.03R    0.07  
Hull            33   41   -4      -2.75    38.20    -1.20    58.48     4.97    -4.79     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.07P    1.55R    0.06  
Middlesbrough   33   37   -9      -8.06    17.07    -9.30    54.78     4.92    -8.75     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    6.24R    0.39  
Charlton        33   36   -6      -3.81    33.56     2.05    52.27     4.93    -8.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.01R    1.33  
Huddersfield    33   36  -14      -1.74    42.86    -2.99    50.83     4.78   -18.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.45R    2.83  
Stoke           33   34  -12      -7.19    20.32    -6.10    50.25     4.87   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.74R    4.16  
Wigan           33   31  -17      -6.52    21.95    -5.86    46.75     4.83   -20.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.23R   14.58  
Luton           33   30  -27      -3.38    35.44    -6.81    44.11     4.88   -33.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.94R   34.86  
Barnsley        33   28  -18      -9.54    13.45    -5.67    42.79     4.90   -22.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.30R   41.71  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 February 2020, Accrington_Stanley 4 3 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            31   57  +24       2.77    62.55     5.64    80.31     4.93    32.75    43.32    63.64    94.11    72.20P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             30   57  +15      10.96    91.69     7.54    77.05     5.14    16.38    16.39    32.79    79.59    42.00P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              32   56   +5      12.83    93.87     6.04    72.03     4.63     4.47     2.04     5.89    41.86    10.86P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         33   55  +26      -1.50    42.73     7.98    74.85     4.35    33.62     7.17    20.15    75.00    35.69P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           31   54  +16      -1.00    44.51    -2.94    76.31     4.89    22.61    12.95    28.97    78.41    44.67P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           30   53  +15       2.00    59.62    -0.19    75.67     5.08    20.26    10.98    25.14    72.82    38.09P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              32   52  +14       0.70    52.94     3.02    73.13     4.56    21.23     3.08    10.34    57.03    23.09P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       30   51  +11       4.27    70.05     2.60    71.94     5.03    13.87     2.80     8.22    44.40    16.08P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            31   48  +16      -3.04    35.71     2.95    68.31     4.86    19.74     0.53     1.82    21.09     6.91P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           31   46   +8       2.22    60.99     5.86    65.50     4.84    10.46     0.08     0.40     7.81     1.99P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           30   45  +13       0.42    52.11     7.90    68.79     5.07    20.22     0.65     2.58    25.37     7.87P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        31   43   +0      -1.81    41.52    -3.43    62.25     4.96     2.23     0.00     0.06     2.20     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       31   42   -7       1.67    58.65    -4.08    57.36     4.71   -10.71     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   31   39   -1      -0.86    46.34     3.42    55.40     4.80    -3.35     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.03R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         33   38   -3      -3.02    36.69     3.32    53.81     4.54    -1.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Blackpool            30   37   +0      -4.51    28.82    -0.71    56.72     5.01     0.90     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.03R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           30   35  -11      -2.10    39.84    -5.89    53.24     4.92   -12.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
MK_Dons              31   33   -9      -4.38    30.51    -1.62    47.70     4.68   -14.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.77R    0.00  
Rochdale             31   33  -16      -0.79    47.06    -1.44    48.04     4.70   -20.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.95R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        31   30   -9      -6.03    22.88     0.75    45.72     4.68   -11.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.78R    0.00  
Tranmere             30   23  -25      -4.74    26.94    -3.32    34.44     4.56   -37.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.61R    1.51  
Southend             31   16  -45     -11.81     5.08   -18.47    27.99     4.49   -55.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.71R   25.56  
Bolton               29   11  -37      -3.32    33.49   -14.91    23.18     4.74   -50.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.93R   72.93  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 February 2020, Cambridge_Utd 2 1 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          33   63  +21       9.39    86.19     8.64    85.99     4.93    28.67    37.38    83.96    99.91    88.41P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           33   63  +14      10.14    87.71     2.96    83.85     4.96    18.48    19.65    67.06    99.62    75.58P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            33   61  +20       8.78    84.02     9.62    81.51     4.99    23.94    10.83    51.41    98.75    63.29P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         32   60  +17       5.59    73.85     1.10    85.07     5.17    25.71    30.35    77.42    99.69    84.25P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       32   54  +21       5.09    72.56    13.64    75.88     5.12    24.90     1.64    15.08    89.45    33.36P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        34   54   +6       8.16    82.65     6.77    69.72     4.64     5.08     0.03     0.83    44.87     8.85P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       34   52  +13      -1.90    41.33     2.42    70.39     4.75    15.90     0.03     1.43    57.05    16.83P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      33   52  +11       1.22    55.73     2.94    70.37     4.95    11.81     0.08     2.03    54.48    14.55P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         34   51   +6      -2.05    41.10    -3.33    69.12     4.73     8.50     0.01     0.77    42.95    12.19P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     34   46   +2      -2.71    38.13    -1.28    62.14     4.62     1.51     0.00     0.00     5.56     1.22P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     34   44   +0       3.31    65.20     8.95    58.22     4.62    -3.42     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    34   44   -6       3.35    65.81     2.24    58.17     4.56    -9.19     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Walsall          34   43  -11      -3.06    36.95   -10.31    58.72     4.71   -11.88     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     34   41   -1      -1.87    42.13     4.64    57.01     4.63    -1.74     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.07P    0.01R    0.01  
Grimsby          32   41   -2       0.78    54.53     2.71    57.33     4.90    -6.09     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   31   40   +0      -1.55    42.79     0.73    59.85     5.22    -0.59     0.00     0.00     3.40     0.68P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    34   38   -9      -0.84    47.00     2.90    51.71     4.60   -13.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.18R    0.18  
Oldham           34   37  -15      -6.82    21.93   -10.67    52.38     4.67   -16.62     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.23R    0.23  
Scunthorpe       33   36   -9     -10.48    12.00   -10.59    55.05     5.01    -7.27     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.06P    0.10R    0.10  
Mansfield        34   35   -7     -14.78     4.52   -11.57    51.88     4.75    -6.42     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.23R    0.23  
Macclesfield     33   35   -8      -1.23    45.08     4.34    48.38     4.59   -14.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.36R    1.36  
Carlisle         33   35  -17      -5.01    28.10    -9.10    52.45     4.88   -17.52     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.36R    0.36  
Morecambe        34   30  -24      -4.83    28.33    -6.15    42.07     4.42   -30.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.62R   19.62  
Stevenage        34   22  -22     -16.90     1.57   -11.60    36.04     4.56   -25.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.91R   77.91  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 February 2020, Ebbsfleet_United 1 0 Chorley; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             33   63  +29       7.71    80.99    13.94    84.03     4.96    33.78    72.58    98.75    78.94P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     34   59  +13       5.26    72.01     2.37    77.19     4.81    15.59    11.44    80.58    27.12P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            33   55   +4      10.21    88.14     4.55    72.66     4.91     3.85     2.12    45.56     9.24P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             34   54  +14      -4.30    31.64    -3.67    74.05     4.82    19.37     4.24    62.39    22.41P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   52  +14       4.70    70.80     8.97    73.54     5.21    17.53     3.53    56.90    15.15P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       33   51  +16      -6.93    21.71    -2.98    73.49     5.00    22.99     4.16    59.46    23.24P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     34   51  +11      -1.83    41.99     1.80    71.04     4.73    16.24     0.90    37.03    10.42P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            35   51   +8      -0.15    49.49     3.49    68.28     4.55    11.23     0.18    16.78     3.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     33   50   +1       3.38    65.14    -0.90    67.29     4.96     0.22     0.17    12.48     2.52P    0.02R    0.00  
Stockport          35   50   -5       7.71    80.15     4.06    62.33     4.47    -9.26     0.00     1.35     0.23P    0.26R    0.00  
Woking             34   48   -7       8.31    82.13     3.87    62.40     4.72   -10.18     0.01     1.58     0.22P    0.51R    0.00  
Hartlepool         34   47   +4      -0.17    49.75     3.48    63.84     4.76     4.55     0.01     3.88     0.78P    0.11R    0.00  
Barnet             31   46   +7      -0.68    46.99     0.75    68.48     5.40     9.78     0.65    21.38     5.58P    0.03R    0.00  
Sutton_United      33   42   +3      -3.76    33.53     2.15    60.88     4.96     4.58     0.00     1.15     0.25P    1.06R    0.00  
Torquay            33   42   -6       2.58    61.86     4.55    57.65     5.01    -9.74     0.00     0.30     0.03P    5.70R    0.03  
Eastleigh          33   42   -6      -0.85    46.80    -2.04    57.62     4.82    -9.40     0.00     0.18     0.03P    5.06R    0.01  
Maidenhead         33   41   -7       3.03    64.52     4.31    57.44     4.95    -9.29     0.00     0.18     0.02P    6.67R    0.04  
Aldershot          34   40  -10       0.45    52.95     0.12    54.03     4.59   -13.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.26R    0.11  
Wrexham            34   39   -2     -10.56    11.42    -6.46    55.37     4.69    -2.00     0.00     0.05     0.02P    9.30R    0.04  
Dag_&_Red          33   38   -5      -5.70    25.66    -3.04    54.17     4.83    -7.30     0.00     0.03     0.01P   17.15R    0.12  
Chesterfield       34   37  -14      -7.08    21.57    -9.74    52.98     4.72   -14.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.96R    0.48  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   33  -20      -9.18    14.71   -12.66    46.96     4.64   -24.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.18R    4.60  
AFC_Fylde          32   32  -13     -12.42     7.26   -13.63    51.99     5.24   -11.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.02R    0.98  
Chorley            34   26  -29      -3.99    32.33    -3.31    36.60     4.32   -38.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.70R   93.58