Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 13 February 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 9 February 2020, Sheff_Utd 2 1 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        25   73  +45      16.11    99.90     7.01   103.39     4.04    66.94    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   51  +36      -6.28    15.54    -4.69    80.73     4.16    57.92     0.01    92.14    99.72    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        25   49  +28       6.30    80.81    15.25    71.43     4.92    35.05     0.00     7.68    85.91    96.71    99.80     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          25   41   +9      -2.12    37.97    -4.25    62.84     4.83    15.05     0.00     0.15     8.46    52.08    88.84     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   39   +4       6.97    83.41     9.78    54.77     4.65     3.23     0.00     0.00     0.33     4.51    30.68     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   37   +8      -6.61    17.07    -6.12    60.32     4.93    16.19     0.00     0.02     4.27    31.04    77.56     0.00     0.00  
Everton          26   36   -4       0.42    52.79    -2.71    51.50     4.60    -5.64     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.99    11.67     0.04R    0.00  
Man_Utd          25   35   +7      -6.23    19.39    -3.04    56.36     4.85    12.25     0.00     0.01     0.93     9.80    48.43     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    25   35   +3       2.06    61.95     5.90    54.09     4.90     4.87     0.00     0.00     0.31     3.98    27.92     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal          25   31   -2      -7.37    15.82    -7.66    50.87     4.83     0.70     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.73    10.34     0.17R    0.00  
Burnley          25   31  -10       3.91    72.04     1.59    45.86     4.65   -15.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.04     2.30R    0.07  
Newcastle        25   31  -12       2.30    63.74    -3.50    46.18     4.66   -16.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.20     2.04R    0.03  
Southampton      25   31  -15       5.03    77.31    -0.01    46.94     4.83   -18.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     2.05     1.90R    0.05  
Crystal_Palace   26   30   -9      -1.55    42.19    -2.40    44.24     4.51   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.43     3.82R    0.10  
Brighton         26   27   -7      -1.36    43.20     4.89    39.06     4.31   -13.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    21.40R    1.69  
Bournemouth      26   26  -14      -3.44    32.33    -3.10    37.19     4.26   -23.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.85R    4.23  
Aston_Villa      25   25  -15      -0.34    49.32     2.19    36.75     4.56   -25.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    47.55R    6.65  
West_Ham         25   24  -13      -5.19    24.23    -3.97    38.30     4.61   -20.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    31.67R    4.07  
Watford          26   24  -16      -4.59    26.30    -3.97    35.94     4.30   -23.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.14R    8.88  
Norwich          25   18  -23      -4.25    27.10    -1.19    29.01     4.35   -36.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.11R   74.22  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 12 February 2020, Bristol_City 3 2 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       32   62  +23       4.86    71.24     2.59    86.94     5.16    31.83    68.55    86.63    99.63    90.76P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    32   56  +17       3.85    67.13     4.81    80.07     5.12    24.34    12.24    40.63    93.40    55.62P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          32   56  +14       4.49    69.21     2.56    77.40     5.25    17.26     5.79    21.63    82.44    36.83P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       32   54  +27      -1.53    42.69     9.56    78.47     5.15    34.95     9.41    30.81    89.32    50.75P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   32   54  +12       6.26    76.88     6.17    74.46     5.09    13.94     1.74     7.94    65.50    20.38P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         32   53  +11       4.79    71.00     4.51    73.63     5.19    13.08     1.43     6.79    59.23    18.60P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    32   53   +3       6.69    78.24    -0.41    71.78     5.15     2.39     0.59     3.27    41.21    10.29P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         32   49   +3       1.47    56.73    -2.43    69.48     5.26     4.88     0.16     1.48    27.33     7.50P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       32   47   +8       0.94    54.40     4.76    66.62     5.21     8.55     0.05     0.39    13.81     3.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         32   47   +0       1.21    55.86    -2.91    66.24     5.12     0.24     0.02     0.23    10.54     2.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall        32   46   +1       4.75    71.65     4.45    65.09     5.17     0.99     0.00     0.09     7.77     1.42P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   44   +6      -1.84    41.81     2.84    63.63     5.14     6.64     0.01     0.08     5.28     1.20P    0.05R    0.00  
Derby           32   43   -4      -3.48    34.59    -7.91    61.85     5.15    -4.55     0.00     0.02     2.36     0.56P    0.19R    0.00  
Birmingham      32   43   -7       3.14    65.08    -0.85    60.45     5.07    -9.79     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.18P    0.51R    0.00  
Hull            32   40   -4      -2.42    39.09    -1.36    58.97     5.15    -4.56     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.13P    1.20R    0.02  
Reading         32   39   +1      -0.96    46.08     6.47    57.30     5.10    -0.16     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    2.37R    0.05  
QPR             32   39   -9       1.56    57.96     1.86    56.02     5.13   -12.75     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    4.75R    0.16  
Middlesbrough   32   37   -8      -6.61    21.55    -8.17    56.89     5.10    -6.67     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P    2.65R    0.07  
Charlton        32   36   -4      -3.30    35.91     2.77    53.98     5.13    -5.85     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.02P    8.28R    0.31  
Huddersfield    32   35  -14      -1.75    42.67    -3.44    50.73     5.01   -19.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.75R    1.63  
Stoke           32   34  -10      -6.60    21.87    -5.36    51.88     5.11   -11.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   16.70R    1.07  
Wigan           32   30  -17      -6.23    22.55    -6.05    46.62     5.02   -20.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.95R    8.58  
Luton           32   27  -28      -4.91    28.18    -7.33    41.87     5.05   -35.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.99R   37.54  
Barnsley        32   25  -21     -10.16    11.13    -7.11    40.06     5.01   -27.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.57R   50.57  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2020, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            30   56  +24       3.43    65.68     6.08    81.81     5.09    34.51    55.98    75.04    97.10    81.21P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         32   55  +27      -0.64    46.52     8.08    76.31     4.60    34.73    12.38    33.53    85.16    48.58P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             29   54  +13      10.22    90.70     6.91    75.52     5.34    14.59    10.21    24.90    73.24    33.97P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              31   53   +3      11.87    92.71     5.05    70.37     4.83     2.43     1.01     3.72    33.71     8.06P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           30   51  +15      -2.09    39.10    -3.18    74.40     5.12    21.16     7.11    19.54    69.46    35.33P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           29   50  +13       1.27    56.26    -0.85    74.37     5.28    18.70     7.15    19.81    67.38    32.48P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              31   49  +11       0.57    52.66     2.22    71.46     4.83    18.08     1.62     6.42    47.20    17.49P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            30   48  +17      -2.12    39.46     3.32    69.73     5.10    20.86     1.13     4.36    35.46    12.57P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       29   48  +10       3.11    65.07     2.39    70.28     5.30    12.80     1.67     5.75    36.92    12.63P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           29   45  +14       1.45    57.46     8.43    70.50     5.27    21.74     1.67     6.46    41.91    14.75P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           30   43   +7       1.14    55.95     5.61    63.82     5.06     9.40     0.05     0.23     6.17     1.45P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        30   43   +3      -1.46    42.87    -1.92    63.43     5.15     4.96     0.03     0.22     5.43     1.30P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       30   39   -8       0.29    52.05    -4.80    55.73     4.93   -11.68     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         32   38   -2      -2.14    40.55     3.42    55.02     4.73    -1.10     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.04R    0.00  
Blackpool            29   37   +1      -3.36    33.78    -0.06    58.10     5.21     1.94     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   30   36   -2      -1.96    40.86     3.04    53.89     5.01    -4.12     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.10R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           29   35   -9      -1.76    41.74    -5.32    54.28     5.13   -10.65     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.11R    0.00  
MK_Dons              31   33   -9      -4.23    30.75    -1.44    47.62     4.67   -14.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.81R    0.00  
Rochdale             31   33  -16      -0.82    47.04    -1.47    48.02     4.74   -20.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.08R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        30   29   -9      -6.09    22.33    -0.11    45.22     4.83   -13.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.13R    0.00  
Tranmere             30   23  -25      -4.76    26.98    -3.37    34.37     4.57   -37.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.85R    2.94  
Southend             30   16  -43     -11.10     6.21   -17.44    29.15     4.74   -54.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.07R   27.48  
Bolton               28   11  -35      -2.95    34.95   -14.58    24.66     5.00   -48.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.79R   69.58  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2020, Bradford 3 1 Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          33   63  +21       9.32    85.90     8.51    86.03     4.93    28.77    41.28    85.99    99.93    89.75P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            32   61  +21       9.74    87.04     9.94    82.51     5.17    24.34    17.10    61.40    98.87    70.23P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           32   60  +13       8.92    85.39     2.53    82.45     5.18    17.80    15.22    58.27    98.74    68.29P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         31   57  +16       4.43    69.52     0.81    83.67     5.41    25.06    24.21    69.68    99.03    78.36P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       33   52  +16      -1.43    43.35     4.20    72.22     4.95    19.59     0.23     4.38    67.59    22.01P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      32   52  +12       2.27    60.48     3.45    71.88     5.15    13.02     0.28     4.42    62.05    18.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       31   51  +20       4.05    68.60    13.42    74.79     5.35    24.70     1.55    13.08    82.14    30.05P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         33   51   +7      -1.02    45.37    -2.76    70.80     4.96     9.98     0.12     2.26    52.78    15.79P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        33   51   +3       7.63    81.89     5.32    67.67     4.82     1.51     0.01     0.47    25.81     4.67P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     33   45   +2      -2.33    39.62    -1.23    62.40     4.83     1.40     0.00     0.02     5.54     1.23P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     33   41   -1       2.07    60.19     8.66    56.24     4.84    -4.98     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.05P    0.04R    0.04  
Cambridge_Utd    33   41   -7       1.98    60.04     1.56    56.23     4.78   -10.57     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P    0.02R    0.02  
Newport_County   30   40   +1      -0.78    46.64     0.92    61.15     5.46     0.33     0.00     0.03     5.15     1.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     33   40   -1      -1.45    44.18     4.80    57.69     4.89    -1.33     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.12P    0.02R    0.02  
Walsall          33   40  -12      -4.04    32.58   -10.45    56.83     4.92   -13.18     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.09P    0.04R    0.04  
Grimsby          31   38   -3      -0.26    49.50     2.51    56.01     5.16    -6.62     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.07P    0.07R    0.07  
Leyton_Orient    33   38   -8      -0.15    50.25     2.76    52.62     4.80   -13.09     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.35R    0.35  
Scunthorpe       33   36   -9     -10.35    12.43   -10.42    55.00     5.00    -7.34     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.20R    0.20  
Oldham           33   36  -15      -6.52    22.34   -10.78    52.82     4.90   -16.52     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.44R    0.44  
Macclesfield     32   35   -7      -0.30    49.34     4.51    49.49     4.82   -13.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.89R    1.89  
Carlisle         32   34  -17      -4.73    28.63    -9.09    52.52     5.12   -17.96     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.82R    0.82  
Mansfield        33   32   -8     -15.83     3.27   -11.70    50.27     4.97    -7.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    1.48R    1.48  
Morecambe        33   30  -23      -4.24    30.79    -6.36    43.20     4.68   -29.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.79R   21.79  
Stevenage        33   22  -21     -15.90     2.17   -11.10    37.69     4.79   -23.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.82R   72.82  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2020, Eastleigh 2 2 AFC_Fylde; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             33   63  +29       7.62    80.67    13.82    84.04     4.98    33.78    71.05    98.59    78.18P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     34   59  +13       5.16    71.91     2.15    77.22     4.78    15.62    11.18    79.23    26.32P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            33   55   +4      10.11    88.02     4.44    72.67     4.94     3.87     2.18    42.83     9.04P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             34   54  +14      -4.16    32.43    -3.46    74.00     4.79    19.29     3.64    59.54    20.92P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   52  +14       4.61    70.80     8.83    73.60     5.19    17.61     3.32    54.84    14.31P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     34   51  +11      -1.88    41.53     1.68    71.05     4.72    16.28     0.76    34.88     9.64P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            34   51   +9       0.84    53.77     3.91    69.95     4.84    12.75     0.51    26.30     6.12P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       32   50  +16      -6.28    23.52    -2.57    74.70     5.19    24.32     6.58    65.49    26.67P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     33   50   +1       3.46    65.59    -0.82    67.33     4.97     0.28     0.17    11.69     2.46P    0.02R    0.00  
Hartlepool         34   47   +4      -0.10    49.74     3.62    63.83     4.71     4.52     0.00     3.17     0.59P    0.11R    0.00  
Stockport          34   47   -6       6.54    77.01     3.74    60.37     4.71   -10.88     0.00     0.55     0.07P    1.25R    0.00  
Woking             33   47   -7       8.51    83.24     3.63    61.94     4.86   -11.57     0.01     1.40     0.20P    0.69R    0.00  
Barnet             31   46   +7      -0.60    47.39     0.86    68.49     5.42     9.79     0.59    19.92     5.13P    0.02R    0.00  
Sutton_United      33   42   +3      -3.61    34.16     2.34    60.81     4.98     4.51     0.00     1.03     0.24P    1.07R    0.00  
Torquay            33   42   -6       2.41    61.36     4.27    57.65     5.02    -9.72     0.00     0.19     0.04P    5.69R    0.04  
Eastleigh          33   42   -6      -0.93    46.45    -2.11    57.65     4.85    -9.37     0.00     0.18     0.03P    4.84R    0.03  
Maidenhead         33   41   -7       2.98    64.56     4.25    57.50     4.91    -9.19     0.00     0.12     0.03P    5.92R    0.05  
Aldershot          34   40  -10       0.43    52.77     0.15    54.05     4.56   -13.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.18R    0.16  
Wrexham            34   39   -2     -10.47    11.55    -6.35    55.32     4.70    -2.08     0.00     0.02     0.00P    9.00R    0.08  
Dag_&_Red          33   38   -5      -5.86    25.07    -3.22    54.26     4.83    -7.15     0.00     0.03     0.00P   15.95R    0.13  
Chesterfield       34   37  -14      -7.22    21.16    -9.96    53.11     4.72   -14.70     0.00     0.01     0.00    24.10R    0.46  
AFC_Fylde          32   32  -13     -12.32     7.37   -13.45    51.88     5.21   -12.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.97R    1.33  
Ebbsfleet_United   33   30  -21     -10.22    11.74   -12.70    45.81     4.88   -24.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.79R   10.55  
Chorley            33   26  -28      -3.23    35.58    -3.03    37.50     4.55   -37.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.38R   87.17