Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 11 February 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 9 February 2020, Sheff_Utd 2 1 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        25   73  +45      15.99    99.89     6.80   103.47     3.97    67.09    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   51  +36      -6.25    15.63    -4.63    80.73     4.13    57.92     0.01    92.06    99.75    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        25   49  +28       6.10    80.14    14.93    71.51     4.89    35.18     0.00     7.77    86.33    96.91    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          25   41   +9      -2.04    38.60    -4.17    62.85     4.81    15.02     0.00     0.14     8.05    52.39    88.97     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   39   +4       7.01    83.48     9.83    54.79     4.67     3.23     0.00     0.00     0.38     4.52    31.31     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   37   +8      -6.53    17.67    -5.99    60.28     4.95    16.18     0.00     0.02     4.25    30.73    77.60     0.00     0.00  
Everton          26   36   -4       0.27    51.88    -2.98    51.54     4.60    -5.59     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.99    11.68     0.04R    0.00  
Man_Utd          25   35   +7      -6.15    19.56    -2.92    56.33     4.85    12.18     0.00     0.00     0.89     9.66    48.46     0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    25   35   +3       2.11    62.14     5.99    54.00     4.92     4.72     0.00     0.00     0.27     3.85    27.00     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal          25   31   -2      -7.41    15.54    -7.70    50.87     4.84     0.67     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.79    10.64     0.15R    0.00  
Burnley          25   31  -10       3.96    72.19     1.65    45.80     4.63   -15.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.96     2.39R    0.05  
Newcastle        25   31  -12       2.26    63.72    -3.52    46.20     4.64   -16.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.11     2.05R    0.04  
Southampton      25   31  -15       5.21    78.10     0.35    46.86     4.84   -18.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.99     1.99R    0.06  
Crystal_Palace   26   30   -9      -1.50    42.18    -2.32    44.21     4.49   -12.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.43     3.96R    0.09  
Brighton         26   27   -7      -1.44    42.55     4.72    39.10     4.32   -13.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    21.43R    1.69  
Bournemouth      26   26  -14      -3.57    31.58    -3.26    37.23     4.25   -23.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.52R    4.36  
Aston_Villa      25   25  -15      -0.33    49.24     2.23    36.80     4.55   -25.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    47.35R    6.26  
West_Ham         25   24  -13      -5.17    23.86    -3.96    38.32     4.60   -20.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    31.31R    4.13  
Watford          26   24  -16      -4.48    26.83    -3.75    35.88     4.30   -23.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.96R    9.58  
Norwich          25   18  -23      -4.26    27.47    -1.30    29.04     4.39   -36.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.82R   73.73  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2020, Barnsley 0 1 Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       31   59  +22       3.76    67.26     2.34    85.43     5.35    31.03    60.10    80.53    99.26    86.48P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    32   56  +17       3.85    67.18     4.83    80.07     5.10    24.34    14.97    42.56    94.67    57.80P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          31   55  +14       5.03    71.82     2.85    77.81     5.42    17.33     8.82    25.65    85.53    41.15P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       32   54  +27      -1.41    43.29     9.70    78.53     5.15    35.05    12.07    33.45    91.10    52.74P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   32   54  +12       6.29    77.00     6.17    74.50     5.13    13.97     2.30     8.94    69.01    21.88P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         31   50   +9       3.77    67.27     3.41    71.77     5.40    10.75     0.99     4.35    48.36    13.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_City    31   50   +2       5.53    74.45    -0.81    70.26     5.37     1.54     0.46     2.31    34.52     8.48P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       32   47   +8       0.87    54.44     4.67    66.64     5.22     8.59     0.08     0.50    16.01     3.58P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         32   47   +0       1.28    56.28    -2.76    66.09     5.11     0.05     0.02     0.30    11.70     2.67P    0.02R    0.00  
Cardiff         31   46   +0       1.39    56.69    -3.12    67.31     5.49     1.15     0.11     0.76    18.39     4.38P    0.02R    0.00  
Millwall        31   45   +1       5.21    74.36     4.64    65.20     5.35     0.63     0.02     0.17    10.14     1.89P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       31   44   +7      -0.94    45.68     3.20    65.57     5.36     8.48     0.04     0.37    12.84     3.19P    0.03R    0.00  
Derby           31   43   -3      -2.34    39.17    -7.29    63.12     5.38    -3.69     0.01     0.11     5.18     1.28P    0.16R    0.00  
Birmingham      32   43   -7       3.15    65.00    -0.93    60.38     5.08    -9.87     0.00     0.01     1.26     0.21P    0.67R    0.00  
Hull            32   40   -4      -2.31    39.99    -1.27    59.06     5.17    -4.42     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.14P    1.46R    0.01  
Reading         31   39   +2      -0.09    50.17     6.71    58.36     5.27     0.35     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.14P    1.89R    0.03  
QPR             32   39   -9       1.52    57.88     1.75    56.04     5.11   -12.72     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    5.37R    0.09  
Middlesbrough   32   37   -8      -6.70    20.90    -8.22    56.93     5.12    -6.63     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.06P    3.06R    0.04  
Charlton        32   36   -4      -3.40    35.09     2.63    54.03     5.09    -5.76     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    8.85R    0.18  
Huddersfield    31   35  -11      -1.72    42.60    -2.49    52.57     5.28   -15.28     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   16.99R    0.61  
Stoke           31   34   -8      -5.76    24.53    -4.14    53.48     5.32    -9.53     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   11.91R    0.44  
Wigan           32   30  -17      -6.34    22.11    -6.27    46.68     5.02   -20.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.03R    6.87  
Barnsley        32   25  -21     -10.36    10.54    -7.44    40.19     5.03   -27.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.46R   41.54  
Luton           31   24  -29      -6.51    21.44    -8.16    39.83     5.22   -37.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.02R   50.20  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2020, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            30   56  +24       3.33    65.40     5.96    81.86     5.09    34.60    56.33    75.66    97.13    81.86P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         32   55  +27      -0.63    46.61     8.08    76.28     4.61    34.74    12.20    33.46    85.00    48.35P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             29   54  +13      10.19    90.46     6.89    75.44     5.35    14.46    10.13    24.86    72.68    34.01P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              31   53   +3      11.88    92.70     5.09    70.36     4.86     2.41     1.03     3.91    33.82     8.10P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           30   51  +15      -2.09    39.43    -3.19    74.40     5.08    21.21     6.97    19.51    69.82    35.20P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           29   50  +13       1.26    56.19    -0.90    74.35     5.30    18.68     7.33    19.46    67.39    32.43P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              31   49  +11       0.51    52.43     2.16    71.43     4.84    18.04     1.58     6.56    47.17    17.35P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            30   48  +17      -2.07    39.85     3.42    69.73     5.12    20.87     1.20     4.21    35.54    12.56P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       29   48  +10       3.10    64.80     2.39    70.25     5.26    12.76     1.55     5.64    36.63    12.45P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           29   45  +14       1.32    56.64     8.19    70.52     5.26    21.80     1.62     6.33    42.46    14.84P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           30   43   +7       1.34    56.86     5.93    63.69     5.08     9.18     0.04     0.19     5.83     1.29P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        30   43   +3      -1.59    42.55    -2.10    63.51     5.14     5.10     0.02     0.19     5.73     1.41P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       30   39   -8       0.35    52.42    -4.68    55.73     4.95   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         32   38   -2      -2.13    40.53     3.33    55.09     4.73    -0.98     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackpool            29   37   +1      -3.37    33.63    -0.09    58.10     5.22     1.97     0.00     0.01     0.60     0.11P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   30   36   -2      -1.88    41.36     3.12    53.92     5.04    -4.10     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.07R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           29   35   -9      -1.79    41.37    -5.40    54.27     5.12   -10.67     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.11R    0.00  
MK_Dons              31   33   -9      -4.21    30.71    -1.35    47.66     4.68   -14.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.86R    0.00  
Rochdale             31   33  -16      -0.93    46.06    -1.67    48.03     4.73   -20.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.01R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        30   29   -9      -5.94    22.57     0.10    45.16     4.82   -13.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.05R    0.01  
Tranmere             30   23  -25      -4.70    27.33    -3.23    34.38     4.54   -37.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.01R    3.09  
Southend             30   16  -43     -11.22     5.79   -17.68    29.28     4.76   -53.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.04R   26.40  
Bolton               28   11  -35      -2.86    35.76   -14.35    24.57     5.01   -48.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.79R   70.49  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2020, Bradford 3 1 Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          33   63  +21       9.26    85.44     8.39    86.04     4.97    28.77    41.34    85.58    99.89    89.48P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            32   61  +21       9.66    86.88     9.81    82.61     5.16    24.45    17.79    62.15    98.90    70.81P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           32   60  +13       8.99    85.39     2.64    82.43     5.14    17.82    14.68    58.31    98.73    68.51P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         31   57  +16       4.46    69.58     0.93    83.65     5.42    25.01    24.04    69.44    99.01    78.09P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       33   52  +16      -1.20    44.26     4.50    72.19     4.94    19.51     0.21     4.31    67.52    21.75P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      32   52  +12       2.36    60.82     3.59    71.81     5.17    12.95     0.31     4.45    61.45    17.70P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       31   51  +20       3.93    68.06    13.29    74.85     5.32    24.80     1.51    12.92    82.61    30.04P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         33   51   +7      -1.19    44.52    -3.05    70.90     4.96    10.10     0.11     2.37    53.62    16.22P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        33   51   +3       7.65    81.72     5.36    67.60     4.83     1.43     0.01     0.43    25.11     4.60P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     33   45   +2      -2.52    39.01    -1.43    62.37     4.85     1.34     0.00     0.01     5.76     1.32P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     33   41   -1       1.99    59.70     8.54    56.22     4.82    -4.98     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.05P    0.04R    0.04  
Cambridge_Utd    33   41   -7       1.97    60.17     1.58    56.19     4.80   -10.63     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P    0.03R    0.03  
Newport_County   30   40   +1      -0.60    47.44     1.18    61.07     5.42     0.21     0.00     0.03     4.85     1.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     33   40   -1      -1.37    44.28     4.85    57.68     4.83    -1.36     0.00     0.01     0.64     0.12P    0.02R    0.02  
Walsall          33   40  -12      -4.27    31.71   -10.82    56.91     4.90   -13.07     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.10P    0.05R    0.05  
Grimsby          31   38   -3      -0.39    48.90     2.30    56.07     5.16    -6.51     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.09P    0.04R    0.04  
Leyton_Orient    33   38   -8      -0.25    49.79     2.63    52.61     4.78   -13.09     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.37R    0.37  
Scunthorpe       33   36   -9     -10.26    12.38   -10.29    55.01     5.02    -7.34     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.20R    0.20  
Oldham           33   36  -15      -6.57    22.56   -10.89    52.86     4.90   -16.45     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.47R    0.47  
Macclesfield     32   35   -7      -0.25    49.76     4.67    49.43     4.79   -13.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.77R    1.77  
Carlisle         32   34  -17      -4.67    29.27    -9.02    52.56     5.12   -17.92     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.88R    0.88  
Mansfield        33   32   -8     -15.89     3.19   -11.82    50.34     4.95    -7.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.41R    1.41  
Morecambe        33   30  -23      -4.06    31.61    -6.09    43.18     4.66   -29.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.80R   21.80  
Stevenage        33   22  -21     -15.72     2.41   -10.85    37.63     4.81   -23.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.92R   72.92  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 11 February 2020, Eastleigh 2 2 AFC_Fylde; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             33   63  +29       7.68    80.94    13.90    84.05     4.94    33.80    71.07    98.63    78.11P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     34   59  +13       5.12    71.34     2.12    77.23     4.80    15.65    10.83    78.97    26.39P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            33   55   +4      10.18    88.12     4.50    72.70     4.93     3.93     2.09    43.45     8.77P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             34   54  +14      -4.07    32.57    -3.28    73.94     4.83    19.19     3.90    58.68    20.78P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   52  +14       4.50    70.08     8.67    73.67     5.19    17.71     3.35    55.14    14.46P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     34   51  +11      -1.94    41.39     1.64    71.10     4.76    16.36     0.79    35.37     9.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            34   51   +9       1.04    54.60     4.18    69.96     4.81    12.71     0.54    26.01     5.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County       32   50  +16      -6.18    23.72    -2.44    74.72     5.20    24.34     6.62    65.67    26.93P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     33   50   +1       3.53    65.70    -0.71    67.31     4.98     0.24     0.18    11.25     2.30P    0.01R    0.00  
Hartlepool         34   47   +4      -0.11    49.77     3.56    63.79     4.75     4.47     0.01     3.31     0.64P    0.14R    0.00  
Stockport          34   47   -6       6.34    76.33     3.53    60.42     4.72   -10.81     0.01     0.57     0.10P    1.26R    0.00  
Woking             33   47   -7       8.52    83.36     3.63    61.94     4.88   -11.62     0.02     1.48     0.23P    0.66R    0.00  
Barnet             31   46   +7      -0.70    46.85     0.72    68.53     5.40     9.87     0.59    20.02     5.18P    0.02R    0.00  
Sutton_United      33   42   +3      -3.49    34.69     2.56    60.70     4.96     4.36     0.00     0.88     0.15P    1.12R    0.00  
Torquay            33   42   -6       2.54    61.99     4.43    57.59     5.00    -9.83     0.00     0.22     0.04P    5.37R    0.04  
Eastleigh          33   42   -6      -0.95    46.16    -2.22    57.68     4.86    -9.32     0.00     0.17     0.05P    4.69R    0.02  
Maidenhead         33   41   -7       2.75    63.55     3.88    57.58     4.97    -9.08     0.00     0.14     0.02P    6.02R    0.07  
Aldershot          34   40  -10       0.59    53.46     0.38    53.95     4.58   -13.61     0.00     0.02     0.00P   18.82R    0.14  
Wrexham            34   39   -2     -10.46    11.72    -6.32    55.33     4.69    -2.07     0.00     0.02     0.01P    9.04R    0.07  
Dag_&_Red          33   38   -5      -5.89    24.63    -3.24    54.23     4.82    -7.21     0.00     0.01     0.01P   16.06R    0.17  
Chesterfield       34   37  -14      -7.19    21.21    -9.95    53.04     4.70   -14.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.26R    0.56  
AFC_Fylde          32   32  -13     -12.39     7.31   -13.52    51.94     5.22   -11.98     0.00     0.01     0.00P   32.39R    1.28  
Ebbsfleet_United   33   30  -21     -10.19    11.72   -12.65    45.76     4.87   -24.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.86R   10.63  
Chorley            33   26  -28      -3.41    34.88    -3.36    37.58     4.57   -37.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.28R   87.00