Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 10 February 2020 at 22:00:02 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 9 February 2020, Sheff_Utd 2 1 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        25   73  +45      16.01    99.89     6.86   103.43     3.99    67.05   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   51  +36      -6.17    16.13    -4.54    80.72     4.13    57.84     0.00    92.43    99.78    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        25   49  +28       6.25    80.87    15.17    71.45     4.89    35.09     0.00     7.38    86.33    96.92    99.82     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          25   41   +9      -2.12    37.93    -4.23    62.85     4.81    15.05     0.00     0.16     8.19    52.20    89.10     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   39   +4       7.10    83.73     9.96    54.72     4.63     3.15     0.00     0.00     0.32     4.39    30.11     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   37   +8      -6.38    18.34    -5.72    60.22     4.92    16.07     0.00     0.02     4.12    30.54    77.15     0.00     0.00  
Everton          26   36   -4       0.27    51.63    -2.91    51.57     4.59    -5.53     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.08    11.76     0.04R    0.00  
Man_Utd          25   35   +7      -6.18    19.39    -2.97    56.39     4.87    12.25     0.00     0.00     0.90     9.87    49.00     0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    25   35   +3       2.08    61.90     5.90    54.05     4.93     4.78     0.00     0.00     0.28     4.03    27.71     0.01R    0.00  
Arsenal          25   31   -2      -7.48    15.46    -7.81    50.89     4.86     0.71     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.82    10.57     0.15R    0.00  
Burnley          25   31  -10       3.98    72.37     1.63    45.81     4.65   -15.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.07     2.28R    0.06  
Newcastle        25   31  -12       2.32    63.69    -3.45    46.19     4.64   -16.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.15     2.03R    0.03  
Southampton      25   31  -15       5.20    78.05     0.27    46.85     4.86   -18.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     2.08     1.86R    0.05  
Crystal_Palace   26   30   -9      -1.59    41.88    -2.41    44.22     4.48   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.43     3.91R    0.09  
Brighton         26   27   -7      -1.40    43.06     4.81    39.05     4.33   -13.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    21.86R    1.76  
Bournemouth      26   26  -14      -3.46    32.05    -3.12    37.17     4.23   -23.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.12R    4.32  
Aston_Villa      25   25  -15      -0.32    49.35     2.25    36.78     4.58   -25.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    47.43R    6.65  
West_Ham         25   24  -13      -5.32    23.14    -4.20    38.39     4.61   -20.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    30.93R    4.00  
Watford          26   24  -16      -4.72    25.86    -4.16    35.95     4.30   -23.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.33R    9.31  
Norwich          25   18  -23      -4.29    27.10    -1.34    29.07     4.38   -36.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.04R   73.73  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 9 February 2020, Millwall 0 2 West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       31   59  +22       3.62    66.39     2.08    85.44     5.37    31.05    56.24    77.81    99.12    84.48P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    31   55  +17       4.03    68.48     4.56    80.15     5.31    23.93    14.93    39.62    93.55    55.07P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          31   55  +14       5.00    71.79     2.77    77.78     5.48    17.32     8.03    23.10    84.40    38.77P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   31   54  +13       7.44    81.44     6.87    76.60     5.32    15.99     4.77    15.61    79.51    29.63P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       31   53  +27      -1.08    44.49     9.57    79.33     5.36    35.68    14.52    36.64    91.74    55.14P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         31   50   +9       3.89    67.75     3.52    71.70     5.40    10.63     0.80     3.53    46.44    12.51P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    31   50   +2       5.54    74.52    -0.79    70.15     5.41     1.40     0.42     1.97    32.44     7.87P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         31   46   +0       1.17    55.64    -3.46    67.41     5.48     1.27     0.11     0.64    17.78     4.43P    0.02R    0.00  
Swansea         31   46   +0       1.76    58.63    -2.58    67.05     5.33     0.89     0.07     0.39    15.43     3.57P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall        31   45   +1       5.15    73.73     4.59    65.24     5.35     0.69     0.02     0.15     9.50     1.71P    0.06R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       31   44   +7      -0.82    46.23     3.33    65.52     5.37     8.38     0.04     0.24    11.77     2.79P    0.04R    0.00  
Blackburn       31   44   +5       0.50    52.71     3.55    64.82     5.47     5.28     0.02     0.19     9.36     2.14P    0.04R    0.00  
Derby           31   43   -3      -2.55    38.35    -7.67    63.28     5.36    -3.46     0.02     0.08     5.00     1.16P    0.16R    0.00  
Hull            31   40   -1      -2.09    40.62    -0.02    60.67     5.40    -1.05     0.00     0.01     1.99     0.40P    0.77R    0.01  
Birmingham      31   40   -8       1.88    59.89    -1.33    58.56     5.30   -11.23     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.08P    1.94R    0.01  
Reading         31   39   +2      -0.16    50.03     6.62    58.48     5.28     0.50     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.13P    1.66R    0.02  
QPR             31   38   -9       1.59    58.16     1.46    55.99     5.32   -13.47     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    6.09R    0.16  
Middlesbrough   31   36   -8      -6.17    22.51    -8.04    57.24     5.33    -6.69     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.07P    3.26R    0.07  
Huddersfield    31   35  -11      -1.62    43.42    -2.28    52.53     5.25   -15.38     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   16.87R    0.80  
Stoke           31   34   -8      -5.80    24.27    -4.14    53.48     5.30    -9.50     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   11.55R    0.61  
Charlton        31   33   -5      -4.77    29.17     2.11    51.74     5.33    -7.80     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   18.67R    1.05  
Wigan           31   29  -17      -5.96    23.41    -6.21    46.91     5.20   -20.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.83R    7.76  
Barnsley        31   25  -20      -9.20    13.23    -6.58    41.64     5.29   -26.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.81R   34.26  
Luton           31   24  -29      -6.43    21.67    -7.93    39.83     5.26   -37.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.21R   55.24  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 February 2020, AFC_Wimbledon 1 2 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            30   56  +24       3.45    65.90     6.03    81.86     5.11    34.58    56.58    76.07    97.26    82.27P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              30   53   +4      12.99    94.65     5.73    71.96     5.07     3.74     2.50     8.07    47.91    13.64P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         31   52  +23      -0.43    47.80     7.36    75.49     4.77    32.41     9.63    27.94    80.86    42.98P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             28   51  +12       8.77    87.41     6.14    73.82     5.59    13.48     6.88    17.92    62.33    26.66P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           28   50  +14       2.15    60.33    -0.66    75.84     5.53    19.88    12.56    29.53    76.34    42.27P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           29   48  +12      -2.45    37.50    -4.15    73.44     5.27    19.23     5.13    15.39    63.34    30.40P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              30   48  +11       0.82    54.03     2.10    72.08     5.10    18.48     2.44     9.38    53.73    21.34P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            29   45  +16      -3.02    34.98     3.55    69.18     5.23    21.59     1.10     4.10    33.48    12.35P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       28   45   +9       1.73    58.56     1.79    68.42     5.46    11.46     0.96     3.53    26.99     8.83P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   44  +14       1.74    58.91     8.29    70.60     5.49    21.37     2.11     7.48    43.99    15.90P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        29   42   +3      -1.17    44.19    -2.11    64.03     5.35     5.33     0.08     0.41     8.16     2.15P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           29   40   +6      -0.24    49.26     5.02    61.71     5.24     7.73     0.02     0.11     3.26     0.74P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       29   38   -8       0.69    54.09    -4.63    56.31     5.16   -11.44     0.00     0.01     0.22     0.05P    0.05R    0.00  
Blackpool            28   37   +2      -2.04    40.01     0.81    59.77     5.43     3.39     0.01     0.04     1.75     0.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         31   37   -2      -1.43    43.84     3.89    55.80     4.99    -0.48     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    0.04R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           28   35   -7      -0.84    46.20    -3.98    56.22     5.32    -7.79     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P    0.07R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   29   33   -4      -2.95    36.08     2.12    51.64     5.20    -7.04     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.47R    0.00  
Rochdale             30   33  -13      -0.82    46.71    -0.76    48.81     4.89   -18.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.79R    0.00  
MK_Dons              30   32   -9      -4.01    31.29    -1.56    47.62     4.84   -14.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.47R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   28   -9      -5.86    22.55    -0.12    45.31     5.04   -13.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.24R    0.03  
Tranmere             29   22  -25      -4.51    27.53    -3.32    34.66     4.78   -37.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.58R    3.75  
Southend             29   16  -39     -11.35     5.62   -16.80    29.83     4.87   -51.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.62R   26.11  
Bolton               27   11  -34      -2.26    38.75   -14.73    25.05     5.14   -48.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.66R   70.11  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 February 2020, Bradford 1 1 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          32   60  +20       7.88    82.37     7.81    84.18     5.14    27.42    36.97    80.70    99.55    85.79P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            31   58  +20       8.70    84.74     9.87    81.39     5.35    24.15    19.56    60.64    97.86    69.20P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           31   57   +9       9.04    86.10     1.07    80.61     5.36    13.50    13.81    51.08    96.62    61.79P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         30   54  +15       3.53    65.95     0.99    82.32     5.61    24.42    24.85    66.87    98.16    75.92P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       32   52  +17      -0.11    49.50     5.11    74.23     5.17    21.45     1.50    13.93    79.89    32.81P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      31   52  +13       3.25    65.03     3.84    73.49     5.40    14.39     1.58    11.72    73.03    26.27P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       30   48  +19       2.83    63.68    13.06    73.21     5.53    23.77     1.56    11.99    73.84    26.75P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         32   48   +5      -1.71    42.25    -3.48    69.56     5.16     8.51     0.15     2.40    43.23    13.58P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        32   48   +2       6.11    77.31     4.42    65.53     5.04    -0.13     0.00     0.33    15.36     2.76P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     32   45   +3      -1.44    43.32    -0.95    64.27     5.07     3.13     0.01     0.23    11.71     2.85P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     32   41   +0       2.96    64.21     8.77    57.26     5.06    -4.42     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.16P    0.02R    0.02  
Crawley_Town     32   40   +0      -0.48    48.60     5.10    58.60     5.07    -1.08     0.00     0.01     1.35     0.25P    0.02R    0.02  
Newport_County   29   39   +1      -0.18    49.62     1.28    61.59     5.64     0.39     0.00     0.10     6.43     1.42P    0.01R    0.01  
Walsall          32   39  -12      -3.91    32.87   -10.74    57.10     5.14   -13.32     0.00     0.01     0.68     0.16P    0.05R    0.05  
Cambridge_Utd    32   38   -9       1.01    55.76     0.51    53.72     4.94   -13.87     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.17R    0.17  
Scunthorpe       32   36   -7      -9.42    14.05    -9.13    57.22     5.22    -4.10     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.18P    0.07R    0.07  
Oldham           32   36  -11      -6.85    21.44    -9.43    54.35     5.12   -12.24     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P    0.26R    0.26  
Grimsby          30   35   -4      -1.74    42.08     1.57    53.55     5.31    -8.69     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.02P    0.33R    0.33  
Macclesfield     31   35   -5       0.36    52.79     5.52    51.05     5.04   -11.44     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.18R    1.18  
Leyton_Orient    32   35   -9      -1.43    43.93     2.31    50.66     5.03   -14.59     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.36R    1.36  
Carlisle         31   34  -16      -3.79    32.60    -8.67    54.03     5.36   -16.79     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.50R    0.50  
Mansfield        32   32   -7     -14.91     3.98   -11.39    52.04     5.19    -5.82     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.76R    0.76  
Morecambe        32   27  -25      -5.04    26.74    -7.02    41.38     4.86   -32.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.76R   35.76  
Stevenage        32   22  -19     -15.41     2.34   -10.43    38.60     4.97   -22.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.51R   59.51  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 February 2020, Bromley 2 2 Solihull_Moors; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             33   63  +29       7.71    81.19    13.93    84.09     4.96    33.85    70.97    98.65    78.09P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     33   56  +10       4.59    69.98     0.84    75.11     5.01    11.86     5.97    63.85    18.51P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            33   55   +4      10.16    87.91     4.47    72.72     4.93     3.94     2.16    43.77     8.87P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             33   54  +17      -3.95    32.64    -2.31    75.88     5.00    23.05     8.54    73.28    29.52P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   52  +14       4.60    70.52     8.86    73.49     5.22    17.46     3.41    54.23    14.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            34   51   +9       0.99    54.49     4.11    70.03     4.83    12.86     0.45    26.98     5.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County       32   50  +16      -6.34    23.33    -2.66    74.77     5.17    24.45     6.63    66.38    27.24P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     33   50   +1       3.55    65.69    -0.67    67.30     4.99     0.22     0.24    11.58     2.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     33   48  +10      -3.18    35.97     1.20    69.60     4.98    15.54     0.45    26.00     6.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Hartlepool         34   47   +4      -0.42    48.38     3.14    63.88     4.74     4.60     0.01     3.38     0.61P    0.13R    0.00  
Stockport          34   47   -6       6.28    75.87     3.41    60.48     4.69   -10.72     0.00     0.62     0.11P    1.16R    0.00  
Woking             33   47   -7       8.60    83.53     3.78    61.94     4.88   -11.57     0.01     1.44     0.23P    0.76R    0.00  
Barnet             30   46   +8       0.28    51.48     1.19    69.82     5.60    10.79     1.15    28.14     7.50P    0.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      33   42   +3      -3.43    34.77     2.60    60.68     5.00     4.31     0.00     0.95     0.15P    1.13R    0.00  
Torquay            33   42   -6       2.62    62.27     4.57    57.53     4.99    -9.90     0.00     0.22     0.04P    5.79R    0.04  
Eastleigh          32   41   -6      -0.56    47.79    -2.20    58.08     5.08    -9.27     0.00     0.35     0.06P    4.90R    0.03  
Maidenhead         33   41   -7       2.86    63.82     4.01    57.52     4.93    -9.17     0.00     0.13     0.02P    6.10R    0.05  
Aldershot          34   40  -10       0.21    51.66    -0.18    54.06     4.58   -13.45     0.00     0.01     0.00    17.96R    0.17  
Wrexham            34   39   -2     -10.32    12.11    -6.12    55.23     4.70    -2.22     0.00     0.02     0.00P    9.37R    0.05  
Dag_&_Red          33   38   -5      -5.68    25.63    -2.96    54.19     4.83    -7.28     0.00     0.01     0.00    16.42R    0.17  
Chesterfield       34   37  -14      -7.21    20.91    -9.91    53.01     4.74   -14.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.74R    0.57  
AFC_Fylde          31   31  -13     -11.86     7.62   -13.33    52.28     5.46   -12.05     0.00     0.01     0.01P   31.05R    1.34  
Ebbsfleet_United   33   30  -21     -10.23    11.71   -12.76    45.73     4.89   -24.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.10R   10.77  
Chorley            33   26  -28      -3.23    35.86    -3.02    37.53     4.54   -37.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.37R   86.82