Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 7 February 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 February 2020, Burnley 0 0 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        25   73  +45      16.04    99.88     6.86   103.38     4.00    66.96    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   51  +36      -6.22    15.86    -4.47    80.70     4.14    57.84     0.01    92.21    99.75    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        25   49  +28       6.25    80.80    15.18    71.45     4.91    35.07     0.00     7.61    86.24    96.83    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          25   41   +9      -2.10    38.19    -4.21    62.84     4.82    15.03     0.00     0.15     8.33    53.16    90.04     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   37   +8      -6.46    17.93    -5.86    60.23     4.95    16.07     0.00     0.03     4.16    31.07    79.05     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        25   36   +3       5.74    79.36     9.39    53.43     4.87     2.63     0.00     0.00     0.25     3.20    24.44     0.02R    0.00  
Man_Utd          25   35   +7      -6.09    19.89    -2.85    56.36     4.88    12.23     0.00     0.00     0.89    10.26    51.48     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    25   35   +3       2.10    62.41     5.97    53.99     4.91     4.71     0.00     0.00     0.29     3.90    28.92     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          25   33   -6      -0.60    46.94    -3.88    49.90     4.80    -7.61     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.58     7.91     0.24R    0.00  
Arsenal          25   31   -2      -7.37    15.83    -7.67    50.96     4.83     0.82     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.79    11.96     0.18R    0.00  
Burnley          25   31  -10       4.02    72.65     1.70    45.76     4.66   -15.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.30     2.86R    0.08  
Newcastle        25   31  -12       2.31    63.89    -3.50    46.19     4.68   -16.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.41     2.50R    0.03  
Southampton      25   31  -15       5.11    77.48     0.07    46.90     4.86   -18.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     2.29     2.27R    0.07  
Crystal_Palace   25   30   -7      -0.87    45.69    -1.47    45.62     4.68   -10.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.26     2.53R    0.05  
Brighton         25   26   -7      -1.06    44.86     4.82    39.56     4.54   -13.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    22.14R    1.88  
Bournemouth      25   26  -13      -2.63    36.44    -2.95    38.36     4.47   -22.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    34.30R    2.97  
Aston_Villa      25   25  -15      -0.20    50.36     2.41    36.68     4.57   -26.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    50.86R    6.90  
West_Ham         25   24  -13      -5.26    23.40    -4.06    38.33     4.60   -20.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    33.49R    4.16  
Watford          25   23  -16      -4.43    26.58    -4.27    36.17     4.53   -23.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.87R    9.60  
Norwich          25   18  -23      -4.21    27.35    -1.22    29.06     4.37   -36.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.73R   74.25  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 7 February 2020, Bristol_City 1 3 Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       30   56  +20       2.87    63.27     1.45    83.80     5.59    28.99    45.92    71.32    97.98    79.77P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    30   55  +19       4.81    71.90     5.72    81.77     5.49    26.36    28.64    57.26    96.27    68.74P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   52  +13       3.84    67.49     2.45    75.95     5.68    15.97     6.36    17.86    75.81    32.29P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   51  +11       6.41    78.44     5.67    74.67     5.59    13.62     3.67    11.87    68.63    24.70P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       30   50  +26      -2.03    39.95     9.61    78.03     5.56    35.09    13.26    32.01    88.00    51.21P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    31   50   +2       5.43    74.11    -0.95    70.34     5.41     1.67     0.56     2.61    35.79     8.91P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         30   47   +8       2.69    62.90     3.20    70.13     5.66     9.74     0.69     2.94    37.52    10.44P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         30   46   +1       2.85    63.83    -2.08    68.83     5.56     2.52     0.38     1.53    26.84     6.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall        30   45   +3       5.61    75.61     5.22    66.74     5.57     2.82     0.12     0.66    16.95     3.58P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackburn       30   44   +6       1.45    57.18     3.90    66.32     5.66     6.51     0.18     0.73    16.73     3.99P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       30   43   +7      -0.20    49.22     3.76    66.09     5.59     8.68     0.10     0.59    15.96     3.95P    0.04R    0.00  
Cardiff         30   43   -1       0.17    51.09    -3.50    65.91     5.70     0.46     0.09     0.52    13.99     3.43P    0.08R    0.00  
Derby           30   40   -4      -3.64    33.22    -7.87    61.17     5.59    -5.11     0.01     0.05     3.17     0.81P    0.63R    0.01  
Birmingham      31   40   -8       1.79    59.36    -1.50    58.63     5.31   -11.12     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.15P    2.16R    0.05  
Hull            30   39   -1      -1.86    41.37    -0.27    60.82     5.59    -1.35     0.01     0.04     2.83     0.58P    0.89R    0.02  
Reading         30   38   +2       0.21    51.68     6.60    58.95     5.53     0.65     0.01     0.01     1.19     0.22P    1.97R    0.06  
QPR             30   38   -7       2.34    61.86     2.51    57.49     5.60   -11.26     0.00     0.01     0.73     0.14P    4.33R    0.17  
Middlesbrough   30   36   -7      -5.26    25.79    -7.77    58.12     5.45    -6.30     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.17P    2.64R    0.08  
Charlton        30   33   -3      -4.42    30.19     2.53    53.24     5.57    -5.52     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   14.13R    0.94  
Huddersfield    30   32  -13      -2.38    39.32    -2.97    50.63     5.46   -17.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   29.33R    2.73  
Stoke           30   31  -10      -6.66    20.67    -5.10    51.70     5.55   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   21.54R    1.92  
Wigan           30   29  -16      -5.13    26.39    -6.09    48.33     5.47   -19.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.90R    6.94  
Barnsley        30   24  -20      -9.02    13.09    -6.92    41.84     5.50   -26.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.96R   38.23  
Luton           30   24  -28      -5.57    24.82    -7.61    41.07     5.51   -36.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.30R   48.86  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 7 February 2020, Lincoln_City 0 1 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            30   56  +24       3.49    66.26     6.08    81.94     5.10    34.70    59.48    78.36    97.67    83.93P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              29   50   +2      12.05    93.85     4.73    70.33     5.27     1.71     1.64     5.70    38.53    10.15P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         30   49  +19      -0.52    47.47     5.92    73.77     5.03    28.14     6.36    20.10    70.79    33.68P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              29   48  +12       1.59    57.73     2.20    73.17     5.28    19.16     4.72    15.84    63.24    28.57P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             27   48  +11       8.13    86.30     6.60    72.92     5.77    13.62     5.92    16.33    58.93    24.77P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           27   47  +12       1.34    56.66    -1.40    74.58     5.72    18.40     9.79    24.40    70.22    36.97P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           28   45  +11      -3.56    31.65    -4.46    71.99     5.45    18.49     3.86    11.91    54.93    25.18P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   44  +18       1.70    58.56    10.07    72.26     5.69    25.74     4.92    15.46    58.56    26.19P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            28   44  +16      -2.29    38.28     4.07    70.56     5.44    23.18     2.54     8.26    46.18    18.67P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       27   42   +8       0.50    52.61     1.31    66.77     5.72    10.44     0.59     2.49    21.04     6.62P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   41   +3      -0.69    46.91    -1.95    64.82     5.59     5.92     0.16     0.90    12.23     3.51P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           28   39   +6       0.09    50.84     5.02    61.62     5.50     7.04     0.02     0.16     4.30     0.97P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       28   38   -6       1.29    57.43    -3.76    57.62     5.37    -9.42     0.00     0.02     0.71     0.13P    0.04R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         31   37   -2      -1.66    42.66     3.55    55.92     5.00    -0.34     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.05P    0.06R    0.00  
Blackpool            27   34   +1      -2.95    35.30     0.96    58.94     5.67     3.70     0.00     0.05     1.83     0.46P    0.04R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   34   -7      -0.42    48.42    -3.89    57.03     5.55    -7.21     0.00     0.02     0.67     0.14P    0.11R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   29   33   -4      -3.02    35.48     1.99    51.64     5.22    -7.04     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.73R    0.00  
Rochdale             29   32  -13      -0.91    46.26    -1.52    48.25     5.05   -20.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.39R    0.00  
MK_Dons              29   31   -9      -3.88    31.76    -1.86    47.57     5.07   -15.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.15R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   28   -8      -4.80    26.80     0.29    46.66     5.25   -12.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.98R    0.02  
Tranmere             28   22  -23      -4.00    29.80    -2.56    35.61     5.04   -36.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.78R    3.66  
Southend             28   16  -38     -10.50     6.88   -16.61    30.49     5.06   -52.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.17R   26.57  
Bolton               26   11  -33      -1.49    42.67   -14.80    25.63     5.29   -49.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.55R   69.75  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2020, Cambridge_Utd 2 1 Colchester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          31   59  +20       8.55    84.44     8.17    84.72     5.40    27.71    36.82    81.17    99.48    85.78P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            30   55  +19       7.48    81.28     9.48    80.17     5.58    23.71    12.44    50.48    95.55    61.37P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         29   54  +18       3.59    66.74     2.05    84.33     5.77    28.35    35.44    77.51    99.02    84.03P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           30   54   +8       8.06    83.68     0.96    79.32     5.57    12.99     8.61    40.72    93.31    53.20P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      30   52  +14       4.49    70.60     4.63    75.46     5.59    16.24     3.09    19.76    80.94    34.35P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       31   49  +14      -0.63    46.96     3.69    72.13     5.41    17.81     0.67     7.61    63.45    23.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       29   48  +20       3.90    68.56    13.59    74.62     5.80    24.83     2.64    18.03    78.54    32.75P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         31   47   +5      -0.99    45.44    -3.06    70.39     5.37     9.15     0.25     3.66    47.21    15.73P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     31   45   +4      -0.11    49.77     0.00    66.01     5.27     4.72     0.03     0.58    18.64     4.59P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        31   45   +1       4.63    71.88     3.68    63.29     5.19    -2.06     0.00     0.12     8.02     1.55P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     31   40   +0       3.26    66.15     8.88    57.78     5.29    -4.30     0.00     0.01     1.15     0.19P    0.05R    0.05  
Newport_County   28   39   +2       0.96    55.44     2.03    63.64     5.84     2.33     0.01     0.35    11.39     2.77P    0.01R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     31   39   +0      -0.11    50.01     5.15    58.95     5.33    -1.17     0.00     0.01     1.77     0.33P    0.03R    0.03  
Oldham           31   36  -10      -5.85    24.45    -9.00    55.30     5.28   -11.89     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P    0.21R    0.21  
Walsall          31   36  -13      -5.45    26.18   -11.55    54.99     5.33   -14.96     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P    0.26R    0.26  
Cambridge_Utd    31   35  -10      -0.72    47.00    -0.46    51.60     5.14   -15.58     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.94R    0.94  
Grimsby          29   34   -4      -1.76    41.85     1.11    53.33     5.47    -9.50     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P    0.61R    0.61  
Macclesfield     30   34   -5       0.43    53.18     5.17    51.15     5.22   -11.83     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    1.60R    1.60  
Leyton_Orient    31   34   -9      -0.87    46.74     2.58    51.18     5.27   -14.40     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.55R    1.55  
Scunthorpe       31   33   -8     -10.87    10.09    -9.81    55.73     5.43    -4.87     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.10P    0.27R    0.27  
Carlisle         30   33  -16      -3.55    33.34    -8.81    54.20     5.54   -17.16     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P    0.67R    0.67  
Mansfield        31   31   -7     -14.27     4.07   -11.02    52.74     5.38    -5.34     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    0.87R    0.87  
Morecambe        31   26  -25      -4.74    27.54    -6.99    41.36     5.07   -32.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.26R   40.26  
Stevenage        31   22  -18     -14.79     2.66   -10.48    39.62     5.16   -21.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.66R   52.66  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 February 2020, Dover_Athletic 2 1 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             33   63  +29       7.76    81.00    13.96    84.02     4.99    33.75    70.34    98.56    77.74P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     33   56  +10       4.55    69.57     0.73    75.17     5.03    11.95     6.07    63.73    18.50P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            33   55   +4       9.94    87.39     4.18    72.77     4.93     4.04     2.10    43.60     8.98P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             33   54  +17      -3.92    32.34    -2.16    75.88     5.03    22.98     8.78    72.66    29.00P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   52  +14       4.57    70.11     8.72    73.52     5.19    17.53     3.32    53.84    14.14P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       32   50  +16      -6.20    23.82    -2.45    74.74     5.20    24.38     6.65    65.58    26.55P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            33   50   +9       1.25    55.59     3.98    70.39     5.06    12.88     0.75    29.79     6.93P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     33   50   +1       3.30    64.91    -1.07    67.39     4.97     0.37     0.18    11.45     2.27P    0.02R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     32   47  +10      -2.57    38.22     1.54    69.82     5.23    15.34     0.69    27.82     7.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking             33   47   -7       8.43    83.06     3.52    61.95     4.88   -11.53     0.01     1.40     0.20P    0.59R    0.00  
Barnet             30   46   +8       0.38    51.87     1.29    69.74     5.59    10.69     1.10    27.09     7.09P    0.02R    0.00  
Stockport          33   46   -6       6.73    77.84     3.63    60.46     4.93   -11.31     0.00     0.77     0.10P    1.56R    0.00  
Hartlepool         33   44   +2      -1.04    45.75     2.64    62.32     4.95     2.69     0.00     1.96     0.38P    0.46R    0.00  
Sutton_United      33   42   +3      -3.56    34.55     2.43    60.75     4.99     4.40     0.00     0.96     0.20P    1.06R    0.00  
Torquay            33   42   -6       2.67    62.29     4.67    57.53     5.03    -9.94     0.00     0.20     0.03P    5.43R    0.03  
Eastleigh          32   41   -6      -0.54    48.16    -2.17    58.03     5.09    -9.32     0.00     0.27     0.05P    4.86R    0.05  
Maidenhead         33   41   -7       2.95    64.22     4.12    57.48     4.93    -9.21     0.00     0.15     0.02P    6.22R    0.07  
Aldershot          33   40   -8       1.04    55.76     0.95    55.24     4.81   -11.72     0.00     0.03     0.00P   12.40R    0.13  
Wrexham            33   39   -1      -9.44    13.56    -5.85    56.82     4.92    -0.87     0.00     0.09     0.03P    5.65R    0.06  
Dag_&_Red          32   37   -5      -5.20    27.19    -2.84    54.85     5.10    -6.84     0.00     0.04     0.01P   13.80R    0.16  
Chesterfield       33   34  -15      -8.37    16.74   -10.33    51.22     4.94   -16.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.31R    1.51  
AFC_Fylde          31   31  -13     -11.91     7.70   -13.45    52.28     5.46   -12.03     0.00     0.02     0.00P   30.11R    1.31  
Ebbsfleet_United   33   30  -21     -10.19    11.65   -12.72    45.79     4.88   -24.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.37R   10.70  
Chorley            33   26  -28      -3.43    34.90    -3.31    37.64     4.60   -37.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.15R   85.97