Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 6 February 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 February 2020, Burnley 0 0 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        25   73  +45      16.06    99.88     6.94   103.41     4.02    66.97    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   51  +36      -6.21    15.87    -4.59    80.67     4.17    57.84     0.01    92.00    99.77    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        25   49  +28       6.17    80.41    15.06    71.50     4.88    35.15     0.00     7.80    86.37    96.96    99.82     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          25   41   +9      -2.11    38.36    -4.27    62.87     4.84    15.10     0.00     0.17     8.31    53.24    89.77     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   37   +8      -6.58    17.35    -6.09    60.28     4.92    16.16     0.00     0.03     4.10    31.22    79.21     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        25   36   +3       5.90    80.05     9.55    53.36     4.86     2.52     0.00     0.00     0.21     3.06    24.11     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd          25   35   +7      -6.13    19.70    -2.96    56.39     4.84    12.29     0.00     0.00     0.87    10.01    51.79     0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    25   35   +3       2.22    62.59     6.11    53.98     4.94     4.70     0.00     0.00     0.30     3.97    29.07     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          25   33   -6      -0.50    47.49    -3.67    49.86     4.81    -7.65     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.61     7.98     0.28R    0.00  
Arsenal          25   31   -2      -7.51    15.02    -7.88    50.99     4.85     0.87     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.75    11.83     0.16R    0.00  
Burnley          25   31  -10       3.89    72.05     1.51    45.82     4.64   -15.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.33     2.67R    0.07  
Newcastle        25   31  -12       2.30    63.96    -3.50    46.17     4.64   -16.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.39     2.38R    0.03  
Southampton      25   31  -15       5.35    78.70     0.49    46.80     4.86   -18.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     2.23     2.26R    0.05  
Crystal_Palace   25   30   -7      -0.93    45.38    -1.57    45.60     4.73   -10.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.35     2.65R    0.06  
Brighton         25   26   -7      -0.95    45.38     4.97    39.52     4.59   -13.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    22.39R    2.03  
Bournemouth      25   26  -13      -2.73    35.60    -3.08    38.41     4.48   -22.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    33.92R    2.95  
Aston_Villa      25   25  -15      -0.26    49.91     2.37    36.71     4.56   -26.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    50.63R    6.81  
West_Ham         25   24  -13      -5.15    23.98    -3.93    38.27     4.61   -20.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    34.10R    4.49  
Watford          25   23  -16      -4.42    26.88    -4.21    36.15     4.50   -23.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    54.06R    9.65  
Norwich          25   18  -23      -4.27    27.19    -1.25    29.10     4.40   -36.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.47R   73.86  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2020, Birmingham 2 1 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       30   56  +20       2.93    63.39     1.48    83.85     5.59    29.07    45.81    70.97    97.90    79.57P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    30   55  +19       4.65    71.39     5.42    81.96     5.50    26.64    29.12    57.51    96.13    68.83P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   52  +13       3.80    67.14     2.41    75.92     5.70    15.93     5.99    17.25    74.25    31.45P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   51  +11       6.53    78.67     5.92    74.60     5.55    13.50     3.51    10.95    66.46    23.17P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       30   50  +26      -1.95    40.39     9.74    78.04     5.54    35.08    12.62    31.03    87.09    50.19P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    30   50   +4       6.32    77.94     0.25    72.51     5.63     4.88     1.57     5.80    49.36    14.55P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         30   47   +8       2.60    62.58     3.05    70.23     5.59     9.84     0.67     2.82    36.53    10.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         30   46   +1       2.97    64.15    -1.86    68.73     5.55     2.36     0.29     1.34    24.79     6.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall        30   45   +3       5.59    75.64     5.24    66.70     5.56     2.80     0.13     0.59    15.59     3.22P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackburn       30   44   +6       1.51    57.23     4.00    66.29     5.62     6.44     0.14     0.62    15.29     3.61P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       30   43   +7      -0.40    48.33     3.47    66.13     5.63     8.74     0.07     0.55    15.42     4.01P    0.04R    0.00  
Cardiff         30   43   -1       0.22    51.38    -3.39    65.86     5.70     0.38     0.06     0.45    12.98     3.16P    0.09R    0.00  
Derby           30   40   -4      -3.77    32.58    -8.09    61.18     5.58    -5.09     0.00     0.04     2.90     0.68P    0.69R    0.01  
Hull            30   39   -1      -1.83    41.89    -0.22    60.76     5.60    -1.43     0.01     0.04     2.49     0.55P    0.93R    0.01  
Reading         30   38   +2       0.22    51.75     6.60    59.04     5.49     0.78     0.00     0.01     1.17     0.22P    1.68R    0.04  
QPR             30   38   -7       2.15    61.16     2.16    57.60     5.55   -11.07     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.10P    3.87R    0.13  
Birmingham      30   37  -10       0.54    53.38    -2.93    56.22     5.49   -14.32     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    6.06R    0.22  
Middlesbrough   30   36   -7      -5.49    24.88    -8.07    58.19     5.48    -6.20     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.17P    2.42R    0.06  
Charlton        30   33   -3      -4.30    30.52     2.69    53.15     5.50    -5.64     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   13.51R    0.90  
Huddersfield    30   32  -13      -2.43    39.30    -3.02    50.68     5.44   -17.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.61R    2.53  
Stoke           30   31  -10      -6.60    20.58    -5.00    51.68     5.49   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.99R    1.87  
Wigan           30   29  -16      -4.97    26.62    -5.88    48.29     5.41   -19.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.02R    6.56  
Barnsley        30   24  -20      -8.75    13.83    -6.41    41.72     5.48   -26.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.85R   38.72  
Luton           30   24  -28      -5.54    24.93    -7.58    41.04     5.49   -36.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.18R   48.95  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 February 2020, Tranmere 0 3 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            29   53  +23       2.29    60.87     5.74    80.38     5.36    33.83    50.07    69.44    95.16    76.78P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              29   50   +2      12.30    94.13     5.07    70.22     5.30     1.55     1.97     6.12    37.85    10.63P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         30   49  +19      -0.66    46.46     5.68    73.82     5.04    28.23     8.00    21.44    71.58    35.03P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              29   48  +12       1.64    57.93     2.28    73.15     5.27    19.10     6.03    17.17    63.47    29.36P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             27   48  +11       8.07    86.14     6.53    72.96     5.77    13.64     7.38    17.55    59.37    25.41P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           27   47  +12       1.41    57.02    -1.31    74.48     5.73    18.30    11.42    25.54    70.23    37.76P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           28   45  +11      -3.80    30.70    -4.77    72.06     5.44    18.64     4.91    13.43    55.74    26.86P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   44  +18       1.64    58.41     9.95    72.26     5.69    25.76     6.09    16.51    58.82    26.94P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            28   44  +16      -2.20    38.93     4.19    70.44     5.44    23.03     2.95     8.53    46.11    18.87P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       27   42   +8       0.60    53.05     1.53    66.71     5.74    10.32     0.88     2.90    21.20     6.98P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   41   +3      -0.73    46.46    -2.01    64.84     5.59     5.91     0.25     1.12    12.49     3.58P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           28   39   +6       0.16    51.44     5.13    61.58     5.44     6.98     0.04     0.18     4.09     0.95P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       28   38   -6       1.21    56.61    -3.84    57.66     5.37    -9.38     0.00     0.02     0.77     0.14P    0.03R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         30   37   -1      -0.98    45.75     3.56    57.34     5.21     0.72     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.11P    0.06R    0.00  
Blackpool            27   34   +1      -3.02    34.93     0.86    59.01     5.64     3.82     0.00     0.05     1.92     0.49P    0.04R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   34   -7      -0.38    48.56    -3.84    57.04     5.52    -7.19     0.00     0.01     0.67     0.13P    0.09R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   29   33   -4      -3.04    35.44     1.93    51.67     5.19    -7.05     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.80R    0.00  
Rochdale             29   32  -13      -0.70    47.44    -1.19    48.22     5.01   -20.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.49R    0.00  
MK_Dons              29   31   -9      -4.04    31.05    -2.10    47.64     5.09   -15.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.83R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   28   -8      -4.78    26.83     0.36    46.67     5.25   -12.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.82R    0.02  
Tranmere             28   22  -23      -3.96    29.86    -2.43    35.59     5.01   -36.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.99R    3.73  
Southend             28   16  -38     -10.54     6.67   -16.72    30.57     5.02   -51.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.22R   25.59  
Bolton               26   11  -33      -1.41    43.38   -14.63    25.57     5.26   -49.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.63R   70.65  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2020, Cambridge_Utd 2 1 Colchester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          31   59  +20       8.46    84.32     8.07    84.76     5.39    27.78    36.93    81.32    99.41    86.01P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            30   55  +19       7.61    81.94     9.69    80.17     5.60    23.71    12.41    50.43    95.36    60.89P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         29   54  +18       3.60    66.77     2.01    84.33     5.79    28.40    35.63    77.31    98.82    84.00P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           30   54   +8       8.04    83.87     0.91    79.37     5.54    13.02     8.51    40.92    93.53    53.68P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      30   52  +14       4.52    70.80     4.68    75.46     5.61    16.20     3.08    19.30    80.74    33.70P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       31   49  +14      -0.78    46.13     3.46    72.26     5.40    17.95     0.67     7.86    64.45    23.65P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       29   48  +20       3.84    68.21    13.53    74.68     5.78    24.94     2.57    18.26    78.92    32.91P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         31   47   +5      -0.92    45.80    -2.93    70.34     5.32     9.08     0.17     3.45    46.32    15.25P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     31   45   +4      -0.14    49.40     0.02    66.04     5.27     4.74     0.01     0.62    18.71     4.79P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        31   45   +1       4.65    71.94     3.71    63.32     5.23    -2.03     0.01     0.14     8.01     1.50P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     31   40   +0       3.15    65.33     8.65    57.77     5.29    -4.29     0.00     0.01     1.15     0.19P    0.02R    0.02  
Newport_County   28   39   +2       0.89    55.09     1.90    63.70     5.85     2.40     0.01     0.38    11.24     2.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     31   39   +0      -0.17    50.02     5.15    58.96     5.29    -1.18     0.00     0.01     1.65     0.27P    0.03R    0.03  
Oldham           31   36  -10      -6.02    23.79    -9.28    55.34     5.30   -11.82     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P    0.22R    0.22  
Walsall          31   36  -13      -5.23    26.64   -11.23    54.88     5.33   -15.10     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P    0.28R    0.28  
Cambridge_Utd    31   35  -10      -0.68    47.53    -0.33    51.59     5.13   -15.64     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.96R    0.96  
Grimsby          29   34   -4      -1.68    42.12     1.21    53.31     5.43    -9.55     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.52R    0.52  
Macclesfield     30   34   -5       0.58    54.00     5.36    51.08     5.24   -11.94     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    1.55R    1.55  
Leyton_Orient    31   34   -9      -1.04    46.07     2.33    51.25     5.24   -14.27     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    1.36R    1.36  
Scunthorpe       31   33   -8     -10.85    10.18    -9.78    55.69     5.47    -4.92     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.15P    0.26R    0.26  
Carlisle         30   33  -16      -3.51    33.79    -8.79    54.15     5.57   -17.19     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    0.77R    0.77  
Mansfield        31   31   -7     -14.35     4.10   -11.12    52.72     5.38    -5.39     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.90R    0.90  
Morecambe        31   26  -25      -4.76    27.71    -7.06    41.34     5.08   -32.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.38R   40.38  
Stevenage        31   22  -18     -14.58     2.86   -10.17    39.52     5.11   -22.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.75R   52.75  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 February 2020, Dover_Athletic 2 1 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             33   63  +29       7.70    80.84    13.93    84.03     4.98    33.78    70.47    98.46    77.48P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     33   56  +10       4.65    69.84     0.95    75.15     5.06    11.93     6.16    63.52    18.06P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            33   55   +4      10.09    88.03     4.39    72.69     4.93     3.90     2.10    42.72     8.86P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             33   54  +17      -3.92    32.55    -2.25    75.78     5.03    22.94     8.36    72.08    28.88P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   52  +14       4.60    70.48     8.75    73.55     5.20    17.54     3.44    54.41    14.42P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       32   50  +16      -6.39    22.95    -2.74    74.81     5.15    24.49     6.69    66.17    27.01P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            33   50   +9       1.46    56.66     4.27    70.37     5.04    12.79     0.75    29.68     6.80P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     33   50   +1       3.40    65.22    -0.90    67.32     4.98     0.28     0.17    11.39     2.19P    0.02R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     32   47  +10      -2.67    37.79     1.37    69.82     5.21    15.30     0.64    27.76     7.78P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking             33   47   -7       8.31    82.45     3.32    62.03     4.89   -11.41     0.01     1.50     0.22P    0.73R    0.00  
Barnet             30   46   +8       0.35    51.90     1.29    69.77     5.65    10.72     1.20    27.75     7.42P    0.01R    0.00  
Stockport          33   46   -6       6.85    78.33     3.74    60.41     4.90   -11.41     0.00     0.76     0.10P    1.65R    0.00  
Hartlepool         33   44   +2      -1.03    45.84     2.65    62.30     4.98     2.69     0.00     1.95     0.41P    0.52R    0.00  
Sutton_United      33   42   +3      -3.44    35.05     2.61    60.69     4.98     4.32     0.00     0.98     0.21P    1.12R    0.01  
Torquay            33   42   -6       2.35    60.92     4.10    57.62     5.03    -9.77     0.00     0.23     0.04P    5.33R    0.03  
Eastleigh          32   41   -6      -0.50    48.11    -2.12    58.04     5.09    -9.30     0.00     0.30     0.06P    4.87R    0.02  
Maidenhead         33   41   -7       2.79    63.54     3.90    57.55     4.94    -9.11     0.00     0.11     0.02P    5.89R    0.04  
Aldershot          33   40   -8       0.95    55.25     0.88    55.27     4.82   -11.67     0.00     0.02     0.00P   12.43R    0.09  
Wrexham            33   39   -1      -9.45    13.65    -5.87    56.86     4.93    -0.82     0.00     0.13     0.03P    5.74R    0.02  
Dag_&_Red          32   37   -5      -5.26    27.18    -2.93    54.90     5.08    -6.79     0.00     0.04     0.00P   13.51R    0.16  
Chesterfield       33   34  -15      -8.26    17.06   -10.12    51.17     4.94   -16.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.69R    1.41  
AFC_Fylde          31   31  -13     -12.01     7.45   -13.54    52.33     5.47   -11.97     0.00     0.01     0.00P   29.97R    1.15  
Ebbsfleet_United   33   30  -21     -10.22    11.75   -12.77    45.84     4.89   -24.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.24R   10.45  
Chorley            33   26  -28      -3.17    35.81    -2.91    37.54     4.56   -37.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.28R   86.62