Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 5 February 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 February 2020, Burnley 0 0 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        25   73  +45      16.05    99.87     6.90   103.44     3.99    67.06    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   51  +36      -6.22    15.74    -4.55    80.73     4.14    57.91     0.01    91.99    99.80    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        25   49  +28       6.16    80.45    15.01    71.55     4.87    35.20     0.00     7.81    86.45    97.02    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          25   41   +9      -2.03    38.79    -4.09    62.82     4.82    14.98     0.00     0.16     8.04    52.54    90.11     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   37   +8      -6.60    17.31    -6.06    60.32     4.93    16.23     0.00     0.03     4.22    31.76    79.53     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        25   36   +3       5.82    79.60     9.46    53.36     4.90     2.56     0.00     0.00     0.24     3.13    23.94     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd          25   35   +7      -6.07    19.84    -2.83    56.35     4.88    12.17     0.00     0.00     0.93     9.96    51.25     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    25   35   +3       2.05    61.69     5.84    54.08     4.90     4.84     0.00     0.00     0.25     4.02    29.72     0.02R    0.00  
Everton          25   33   -6      -0.52    47.45    -3.71    49.78     4.81    -7.76     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.55     7.61     0.28R    0.00  
Arsenal          25   31   -2      -7.46    15.50    -7.78    50.94     4.81     0.76     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.80    11.50     0.16R    0.00  
Burnley          25   31  -10       3.98    72.26     1.64    45.76     4.64   -15.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.21     2.73R    0.06  
Newcastle        25   31  -12       2.23    63.35    -3.57    46.16     4.68   -16.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.44     2.62R    0.03  
Southampton      25   31  -15       5.26    78.43     0.36    46.87     4.85   -18.56     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     2.35     2.28R    0.07  
Crystal_Palace   25   30   -7      -0.93    45.48    -1.59    45.60     4.73   -10.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.36     2.61R    0.04  
Brighton         25   26   -7      -0.90    45.77     5.02    39.54     4.57   -13.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    22.33R    1.94  
Bournemouth      25   26  -13      -2.65    36.02    -3.04    38.34     4.47   -22.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    34.32R    2.92  
Aston_Villa      25   25  -15      -0.27    49.70     2.33    36.76     4.55   -25.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    50.39R    6.66  
West_Ham         25   24  -13      -5.22    23.74    -4.02    38.33     4.59   -20.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    33.47R    4.23  
Watford          25   23  -16      -4.37    27.18    -4.15    36.14     4.55   -23.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.99R    9.60  
Norwich          25   18  -23      -4.22    27.16    -1.18    29.02     4.37   -36.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.81R   74.44  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2020, Birmingham 2 1 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       30   56  +20       2.97    63.56     1.58    83.81     5.56    29.02    45.85    70.77    97.92    79.12P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    30   55  +19       4.73    71.37     5.57    81.80     5.48    26.40    28.05    56.53    95.93    68.11P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   52  +13       3.77    66.91     2.37    75.93     5.70    15.98     6.31    17.24    74.19    31.75P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   51  +11       6.54    78.53     5.93    74.59     5.56    13.50     3.58    11.23    66.67    23.65P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       30   50  +26      -2.00    40.03     9.66    78.12     5.56    35.21    13.12    31.81    87.40    50.87P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    30   50   +4       6.34    77.89     0.29    72.51     5.60     4.88     1.71     5.75    49.36    14.25P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         30   47   +8       2.65    62.64     3.13    70.17     5.59     9.77     0.63     2.77    36.11    10.12P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         30   46   +1       2.79    63.27    -2.12    68.82     5.53     2.52     0.33     1.50    25.11     6.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall        30   45   +3       5.76    76.31     5.43    66.67     5.56     2.72     0.11     0.58    15.66     3.22P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       30   44   +6       1.33    56.76     3.80    66.39     5.64     6.58     0.12     0.68    15.71     3.76P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       30   43   +7      -0.30    48.83     3.59    66.10     5.61     8.71     0.08     0.56    14.79     3.64P    0.04R    0.00  
Cardiff         30   43   -1       0.02    50.30    -3.67    65.91     5.73     0.46     0.08     0.47    12.93     3.22P    0.08R    0.00  
Derby           30   40   -4      -3.73    32.77    -7.95    61.18     5.58    -5.08     0.01     0.06     2.82     0.71P    0.61R    0.01  
Hull            30   39   -1      -1.84    41.68    -0.21    60.81     5.63    -1.41     0.01     0.04     2.62     0.58P    0.89R    0.02  
Reading         30   38   +2       0.17    51.27     6.53    58.99     5.48     0.73     0.00     0.01     1.15     0.18P    1.70R    0.04  
QPR             30   38   -7       2.22    61.19     2.30    57.55     5.55   -11.16     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.08P    4.10R    0.14  
Birmingham      30   37  -10       0.83    54.81    -2.51    56.08     5.45   -14.51     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.04P    6.25R    0.23  
Middlesbrough   30   36   -7      -5.54    24.45    -8.13    58.18     5.48    -6.24     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.17P    2.59R    0.06  
Charlton        30   33   -3      -4.40    30.29     2.60    53.21     5.52    -5.56     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   13.63R    0.84  
Huddersfield    30   32  -13      -2.35    39.48    -2.91    50.64     5.46   -17.78     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   28.74R    2.72  
Stoke           30   31  -10      -6.63    20.75    -5.05    51.68     5.52   -11.74     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   20.97R    2.01  
Wigan           30   29  -16      -5.10    26.22    -6.02    48.38     5.41   -19.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.27R    6.43  
Barnsley        30   24  -20      -8.96    13.20    -6.81    41.88     5.47   -26.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.57R   37.20  
Luton           30   24  -28      -5.41    25.41    -7.39    40.92     5.47   -36.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.52R   50.29  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 February 2020, Tranmere 0 3 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            29   53  +23       2.09    59.96     5.44    80.45     5.33    33.93    50.05    69.59    95.42    76.98P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              29   50   +2      12.10    93.83     4.80    70.31     5.29     1.68     2.15     6.23    38.58    10.77P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         30   49  +19      -0.59    46.86     5.76    73.81     5.02    28.22     7.84    21.31    71.16    34.69P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              29   48  +12       1.59    57.58     2.20    73.19     5.26    19.22     5.83    16.80    63.71    29.25P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             27   48  +11       7.95    85.55     6.35    73.05     5.76    13.74     7.38    17.66    59.65    25.92P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           27   47  +12       1.37    57.02    -1.39    74.60     5.68    18.44    11.44    25.81    70.69    37.63P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           28   45  +11      -3.88    30.43    -4.92    72.14     5.49    18.73     5.14    13.74    55.87    26.92P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   44  +18       1.71    58.95    10.08    72.24     5.67    25.72     6.03    16.09    58.39    26.70P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            28   44  +16      -2.28    38.41     4.06    70.54     5.46    23.18     3.08     8.92    46.13    19.26P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       27   42   +8       0.71    53.68     1.67    66.66     5.69    10.25     0.76     2.58    20.40     6.56P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   41   +3      -0.64    46.89    -1.89    64.79     5.57     5.86     0.26     1.03    12.16     3.57P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           28   39   +6      -0.02    50.23     4.89    61.66     5.47     7.12     0.03     0.17     4.23     0.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       28   38   -6       1.34    57.16    -3.68    57.63     5.38    -9.42     0.00     0.01     0.70     0.14P    0.04R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         30   37   -1      -0.74    47.08     3.91    57.24     5.24     0.58     0.00     0.01     0.42     0.08P    0.05R    0.00  
Blackpool            27   34   +1      -3.00    34.95     0.91    59.00     5.64     3.75     0.00     0.05     1.84     0.45P    0.02R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   34   -7      -0.26    49.43    -3.63    56.94     5.54    -7.32     0.00     0.02     0.64     0.15P    0.10R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   29   33   -4      -2.98    35.74     2.11    51.58     5.20    -7.13     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.68R    0.00  
Rochdale             29   32  -13      -0.80    46.83    -1.33    48.21     5.02   -20.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.48R    0.00  
MK_Dons              29   31   -9      -3.80    32.13    -1.69    47.50     5.08   -15.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.06R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   28   -8      -4.72    27.13     0.41    46.62     5.27   -12.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.88R    0.01  
Tranmere             28   22  -23      -3.93    29.90    -2.45    35.59     5.00   -36.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.95R    3.67  
Southend             28   16  -38     -10.59     6.58   -16.83    30.55     5.04   -51.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.18R   25.72  
Bolton               26   11  -33      -1.49    42.81   -14.76    25.58     5.27   -49.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.54R   70.59  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2020, Cambridge_Utd 2 1 Colchester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          31   59  +20       8.59    84.89     8.27    84.73     5.38    27.72    36.63    81.04    99.50    85.90P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            30   55  +19       7.70    82.28     9.82    80.11     5.57    23.65    12.26    50.24    95.37    60.79P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         29   54  +18       3.53    66.36     1.95    84.34     5.78    28.41    35.75    77.14    98.91    83.92P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           30   54   +8       7.91    83.36     0.76    79.46     5.56    13.17     8.75    41.55    93.73    54.20P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      30   52  +14       4.39    70.37     4.46    75.56     5.59    16.36     3.12    19.85    81.08    34.48P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       31   49  +14      -0.71    46.70     3.59    72.17     5.39    17.88     0.61     7.65    63.57    23.39P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       29   48  +20       3.83    68.21    13.50    74.69     5.77    24.95     2.63    18.05    78.71    32.65P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         31   47   +5      -0.91    45.68    -2.94    70.39     5.37     9.13     0.23     3.44    47.18    15.23P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     31   45   +4      -0.05    49.87     0.11    66.01     5.26     4.68     0.02     0.59    18.41     4.67P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        31   45   +1       4.65    71.75     3.67    63.31     5.20    -2.04     0.00     0.12     7.93     1.46P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     31   40   +0       3.02    64.98     8.52    57.82     5.30    -4.24     0.00     0.00     1.16     0.16P    0.03R    0.03  
Newport_County   28   39   +2       1.06    55.88     2.16    63.61     5.82     2.28     0.01     0.31    11.09     2.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     31   39   +0      -0.17    49.78     5.08    58.95     5.32    -1.16     0.00     0.01     1.73     0.33P    0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           31   36  -10      -5.91    24.16    -9.17    55.30     5.33   -11.87     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P    0.23R    0.23  
Walsall          31   36  -13      -5.39    26.22   -11.48    54.94     5.33   -15.01     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.06P    0.24R    0.24  
Cambridge_Utd    31   35  -10      -0.87    46.35    -0.62    51.66     5.14   -15.52     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.83R    0.83  
Grimsby          29   34   -4      -1.59    42.85     1.34    53.26     5.47    -9.62     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.57R    0.57  
Macclesfield     30   34   -5       0.57    54.02     5.35    51.12     5.26   -11.92     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    1.56R    1.56  
Leyton_Orient    31   34   -9      -1.01    46.36     2.38    51.22     5.23   -14.32     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    1.35R    1.35  
Scunthorpe       31   33   -8     -10.84    10.37    -9.75    55.64     5.47    -4.98     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.11P    0.27R    0.27  
Carlisle         30   33  -16      -3.43    34.06    -8.64    54.14     5.58   -17.23     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    0.77R    0.77  
Mansfield        31   31   -7     -14.32     4.17   -11.10    52.70     5.41    -5.39     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.04P    0.84R    0.84  
Morecambe        31   26  -25      -4.74    27.46    -7.05    41.34     5.04   -32.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.21R   40.21  
Stevenage        31   22  -18     -14.60     2.94   -10.20    39.53     5.16   -22.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.09R   53.09  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 February 2020, Dover_Athletic 2 1 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             33   63  +29       7.65    80.80    13.84    84.04     4.96    33.81    70.59    98.53    77.79P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     33   56  +10       4.49    69.54     0.65    75.15     5.02    11.97     6.08    63.58    18.40P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            33   55   +4       9.90    87.28     4.11    72.81     4.95     4.04     2.15    43.79     8.90P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             33   54  +17      -4.13    31.86    -2.52    75.94     5.05    23.12     8.88    72.87    29.86P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   52  +14       4.86    71.53     9.16    73.46     5.21    17.40     3.19    53.35    13.55P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       32   50  +16      -6.35    23.23    -2.72    74.78     5.18    24.42     6.35    65.89    26.54P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            33   50   +9       1.32    56.12     4.04    70.41     5.06    12.87     0.80    29.91     6.91P    0.00R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     33   50   +1       3.52    65.89    -0.71    67.28     4.98     0.23     0.19    11.33     2.22P    0.01R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     32   47  +10      -2.63    38.00     1.48    69.87     5.18    15.36     0.69    27.91     7.83P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking             33   47   -7       8.45    82.98     3.57    62.00     4.91   -11.51     0.01     1.51     0.21P    0.72R    0.00  
Barnet             30   46   +8       0.52    52.67     1.47    69.66     5.61    10.56     1.06    26.91     6.99P    0.02R    0.00  
Stockport          33   46   -6       6.62    77.67     3.39    60.46     4.90   -11.29     0.00     0.70     0.11P    1.56R    0.00  
Hartlepool         33   44   +2      -0.98    46.03     2.76    62.31     4.94     2.71     0.00     1.92     0.37P    0.51R    0.00  
Sutton_United      33   42   +3      -3.42    34.83     2.67    60.70     4.97     4.32     0.00     0.97     0.18P    1.08R    0.00  
Torquay            33   42   -6       2.46    61.49     4.28    57.60     4.97    -9.79     0.00     0.21     0.03P    5.12R    0.05  
Eastleigh          32   41   -6      -0.64    47.47    -2.32    58.11     5.09    -9.19     0.00     0.31     0.06P    4.69R    0.02  
Maidenhead         33   41   -7       2.95    64.40     4.14    57.47     4.96    -9.22     0.00     0.11     0.01P    6.04R    0.04  
Aldershot          33   40   -8       1.07    55.88     0.99    55.19     4.80   -11.77     0.00     0.04     0.01P   12.45R    0.12  
Wrexham            33   39   -1      -9.29    14.23    -5.70    56.78     4.92    -0.92     0.00     0.10     0.02P    5.77R    0.02  
Dag_&_Red          32   37   -5      -5.23    27.15    -2.86    54.84     5.08    -6.85     0.00     0.05     0.01P   13.97R    0.16  
Chesterfield       33   34  -15      -8.25    17.06   -10.06    51.13     4.94   -16.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.20R    1.64  
AFC_Fylde          31   31  -13     -12.13     7.34   -13.73    52.39     5.47   -11.87     0.00     0.01     0.00    29.55R    1.24  
Ebbsfleet_United   33   30  -21     -10.24    11.75   -12.81    45.83     4.89   -24.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.10R   10.46  
Chorley            33   26  -28      -3.27    35.73    -3.12    37.61     4.58   -37.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.22R   86.24