Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 4 February 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 February 2020, Burnley 0 0 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        25   73  +45      16.11    99.89     7.06   103.42     4.00    66.98    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   51  +36      -6.24    15.63    -4.59    80.74     4.13    57.93     0.01    92.39    99.77    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        25   49  +28       6.38    81.06    15.40    71.37     4.93    34.97     0.00     7.38    85.55    96.79    99.80     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          25   41   +9      -2.10    38.35    -4.17    62.83     4.86    15.03     0.00     0.20     8.63    53.00    89.86     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   37   +8      -6.53    17.50    -5.99    60.26     4.94    16.16     0.00     0.02     4.44    31.23    78.98     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        25   36   +3       5.66    79.11     9.27    53.40     4.86     2.62     0.00     0.00     0.26     3.09    24.43     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd          25   35   +7      -6.10    19.68    -2.85    56.37     4.86    12.21     0.00     0.01     0.94    10.03    51.12     0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    25   35   +3       2.02    61.61     5.81    54.06     4.93     4.81     0.00     0.00     0.34     4.14    29.25     0.02R    0.00  
Everton          25   33   -6      -0.66    46.88    -3.98    49.96     4.83    -7.53     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.68     8.37     0.22R    0.00  
Arsenal          25   31   -2      -7.50    15.29    -7.85    50.95     4.85     0.80     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.85    11.82     0.14R    0.00  
Burnley          25   31  -10       3.93    72.15     1.56    45.83     4.62   -15.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.23     2.57R    0.07  
Newcastle        25   31  -12       2.33    64.14    -3.46    46.14     4.67   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.39     2.67R    0.04  
Southampton      25   31  -15       5.17    77.89     0.13    46.85     4.86   -18.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     2.36     2.30R    0.08  
Crystal_Palace   25   30   -7      -0.79    46.51    -1.31    45.52     4.70   -10.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.29     2.65R    0.05  
Brighton         25   26   -7      -0.95    45.63     4.90    39.55     4.55   -13.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    22.04R    1.82  
Bournemouth      25   26  -13      -2.59    36.63    -2.92    38.35     4.46   -23.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    34.30R    3.06  
Aston_Villa      25   25  -15      -0.28    49.83     2.37    36.75     4.56   -25.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    50.20R    6.54  
West_Ham         25   24  -13      -5.21    23.84    -4.01    38.28     4.60   -20.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    33.95R    4.41  
Watford          25   23  -16      -4.34    27.16    -4.12    36.16     4.52   -23.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.19R    9.29  
Norwich          25   18  -23      -4.26    27.32    -1.26    29.06     4.35   -36.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.76R   74.64  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2020, Birmingham 2 1 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       30   56  +20       2.86    63.25     1.43    83.81     5.56    29.02    45.88    71.11    97.88    79.48P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    30   55  +19       4.96    72.25     5.92    81.72     5.50    26.25    27.87    56.22    95.75    67.50P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   52  +13       3.67    66.53     2.23    75.98     5.70    16.03     6.47    17.58    74.68    31.92P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   51  +11       6.46    78.36     5.79    74.64     5.56    13.58     3.72    11.48    66.92    23.63P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       30   50  +26      -2.00    40.05     9.69    78.09     5.53    35.17    12.89    31.15    87.26    50.26P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    30   50   +4       6.42    78.02     0.42    72.47     5.61     4.81     1.63     5.78    48.91    14.45P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         30   47   +8       2.43    61.77     2.87    70.27     5.63     9.92     0.74     2.97    36.69    10.36P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         30   46   +1       3.01    64.79    -1.79    68.74     5.54     2.42     0.34     1.36    24.74     6.63P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall        30   45   +3       5.67    76.16     5.27    66.70     5.52     2.80     0.10     0.54    15.37     3.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       30   44   +6       1.47    57.27     3.93    66.30     5.65     6.46     0.14     0.66    15.50     3.67P    0.05R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       30   43   +7      -0.40    48.47     3.41    66.18     5.59     8.80     0.12     0.59    15.16     3.86P    0.03R    0.00  
Cardiff         30   43   -1       0.04    50.54    -3.71    65.94     5.69     0.53     0.07     0.48    12.98     3.29P    0.06R    0.00  
Derby           30   40   -4      -3.75    32.44    -7.98    61.15     5.57    -5.13     0.00     0.04     2.75     0.62P    0.59R    0.01  
Hull            30   39   -1      -1.91    41.30    -0.30    60.81     5.59    -1.37     0.01     0.04     2.67     0.56P    0.88R    0.02  
Reading         30   38   +2       0.18    51.49     6.61    58.99     5.53     0.74     0.00     0.00     1.14     0.23P    1.82R    0.05  
QPR             30   38   -7       2.22    61.27     2.26    57.56     5.56   -11.14     0.00     0.01     0.63     0.10P    4.00R    0.15  
Birmingham      30   37  -10       0.76    54.60    -2.64    56.13     5.46   -14.44     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P    6.10R    0.23  
Middlesbrough   30   36   -7      -5.43    25.13    -7.93    58.16     5.45    -6.28     0.00     0.01     0.64     0.14P    2.57R    0.07  
Charlton        30   33   -3      -4.31    30.65     2.67    53.17     5.54    -5.61     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   13.87R    0.89  
Huddersfield    30   32  -13      -2.24    39.78    -2.75    50.63     5.46   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    28.70R    2.69  
Stoke           30   31  -10      -6.61    20.77    -5.05    51.71     5.53   -11.68     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   20.74R    1.95  
Wigan           30   29  -16      -5.10    26.21    -6.05    48.30     5.43   -19.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.15R    6.83  
Barnsley        30   24  -20      -8.98    13.17    -6.83    41.86     5.50   -26.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.39R   37.70  
Luton           30   24  -28      -5.50    25.06    -7.50    41.04     5.51   -36.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.04R   49.40  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 February 2020, Tranmere 0 3 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            29   53  +23       2.43    61.41     5.92    80.27     5.36    33.68    49.45    68.98    95.03    76.66P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              29   50   +2      12.11    93.86     4.80    70.26     5.27     1.63     1.98     5.98    38.02    10.52P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         30   49  +19      -0.59    47.05     5.80    73.80     5.02    28.18     7.91    21.63    71.28    35.04P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              29   48  +12       1.72    58.41     2.42    73.12     5.28    19.08     5.98    16.97    63.08    29.23P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             27   48  +11       7.97    85.75     6.38    73.05     5.70    13.76     7.45    17.83    59.77    25.98P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           27   47  +12       1.42    56.88    -1.32    74.49     5.71    18.33    11.32    25.71    70.09    37.47P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           28   45  +11      -3.78    30.71    -4.81    72.12     5.45    18.73     5.15    13.66    56.01    27.14P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   44  +18       1.65    58.39     9.99    72.22     5.65    25.69     6.36    16.22    58.79    26.23P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            28   44  +16      -2.20    38.99     4.17    70.47     5.43    23.08     3.19     8.71    45.61    19.04P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       27   42   +8       0.49    52.51     1.38    66.84     5.75    10.48     0.92     2.94    21.84     7.30P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   41   +3      -0.78    46.08    -2.07    64.86     5.58     5.96     0.23     1.09    12.54     3.59P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           28   39   +6      -0.01    50.46     4.87    61.65     5.45     7.10     0.04     0.16     4.20     0.96P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       28   38   -6       1.40    57.89    -3.56    57.54     5.39    -9.55     0.01     0.02     0.75     0.15P    0.03R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         30   37   -1      -0.77    46.88     3.89    57.25     5.24     0.57     0.00     0.01     0.43     0.09P    0.04R    0.00  
Blackpool            27   34   +1      -2.92    35.31     1.04    58.94     5.64     3.71     0.01     0.06     1.79     0.42P    0.03R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   34   -7      -0.33    48.95    -3.79    57.04     5.54    -7.18     0.00     0.02     0.73     0.18P    0.10R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   29   33   -4      -3.06    35.27     1.93    51.67     5.20    -7.05     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.82R    0.00  
Rochdale             29   32  -13      -0.85    46.66    -1.45    48.27     5.03   -20.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.54R    0.00  
MK_Dons              29   31   -9      -3.86    31.94    -1.81    47.54     5.08   -15.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    4.08R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   28   -8      -4.72    27.05     0.48    46.65     5.28   -12.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.04R    0.03  
Tranmere             28   22  -23      -4.22    28.78    -2.95    35.74     5.02   -36.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.46R    3.55  
Southend             28   16  -38     -10.51     6.85   -16.66    30.51     5.03   -51.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.26R   25.95  
Bolton               26   11  -33      -1.43    43.32   -14.66    25.55     5.29   -49.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.59R   70.46  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2020, Cambridge_Utd 2 1 Colchester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          31   59  +20       8.49    84.33     8.08    84.72     5.44    27.75    36.11    80.74    99.45    85.63P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            30   55  +19       7.51    81.44     9.53    80.15     5.59    23.72    12.38    50.36    95.48    61.01P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         29   54  +18       3.48    66.10     1.79    84.44     5.82    28.55    36.47    77.77    98.88    84.31P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           30   54   +8       7.98    83.48     0.85    79.42     5.55    13.10     8.80    41.21    93.73    53.86P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      30   52  +14       4.54    70.87     4.71    75.44     5.62    16.20     2.85    19.67    80.62    34.21P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       31   49  +14      -0.64    46.88     3.64    72.20     5.36    17.89     0.63     7.58    63.87    23.37P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       29   48  +20       3.80    68.12    13.51    74.67     5.74    24.95     2.52    18.13    78.65    32.74P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         31   47   +5      -0.78    46.49    -2.76    70.32     5.35     9.06     0.21     3.48    46.57    15.04P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     31   45   +4      -0.27    48.87    -0.20    66.13     5.30     4.83     0.02     0.61    19.38     4.83P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        31   45   +1       4.64    71.71     3.66    63.30     5.22    -2.04     0.00     0.14     7.89     1.53P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     31   40   +0       3.33    66.14     8.98    57.70     5.27    -4.41     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.17P    0.05R    0.05  
Newport_County   28   39   +2       0.95    55.31     2.02    63.63     5.83     2.31     0.00     0.30    11.24     2.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     31   39   +0      -0.20    49.61     5.09    58.97     5.31    -1.17     0.00     0.01     1.74     0.34P    0.01R    0.01  
Oldham           31   36  -10      -5.94    23.91    -9.16    55.31     5.30   -11.87     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.06P    0.24R    0.24  
Walsall          31   36  -13      -5.28    26.50   -11.34    54.90     5.34   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P    0.25R    0.25  
Cambridge_Utd    31   35  -10      -0.82    46.62    -0.58    51.67     5.17   -15.53     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.97R    0.97  
Grimsby          29   34   -4      -1.68    42.33     1.21    53.27     5.44    -9.60     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.56R    0.56  
Macclesfield     30   34   -5       0.61    54.02     5.40    51.07     5.22   -11.97     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.65R    1.65  
Leyton_Orient    31   34   -9      -0.95    46.31     2.51    51.22     5.25   -14.33     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.43R    1.43  
Scunthorpe       31   33   -8     -10.69    10.60    -9.53    55.64     5.49    -5.04     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.10P    0.29R    0.29  
Carlisle         30   33  -16      -3.56    33.47    -8.86    54.15     5.55   -17.18     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P    0.71R    0.71  
Mansfield        31   31   -7     -14.33     3.89   -11.03    52.72     5.42    -5.37     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    0.95R    0.95  
Morecambe        31   26  -25      -4.89    26.76    -7.25    41.36     5.06   -32.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.95R   39.95  
Stevenage        31   22  -18     -14.62     2.76   -10.26    39.59     5.19   -21.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.94R   52.94  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 February 2020, Dover_Athletic 2 1 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             33   63  +29       7.55    80.25    13.75    84.09     4.97    33.86    70.74    98.53    77.82P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     33   56  +10       4.82    70.69     1.14    75.10     5.05    11.84     5.89    63.39    17.88P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            33   55   +4      10.08    87.60     4.33    72.68     4.96     3.92     2.05    42.80     8.73P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             33   54  +17      -4.04    32.25    -2.40    75.88     5.03    23.06     8.79    72.82    29.43P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   52  +14       4.55    70.09     8.68    73.58     5.19    17.58     3.32    54.44    14.20P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       32   50  +16      -6.11    23.99    -2.33    74.65     5.18    24.26     6.37    65.00    26.31P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            33   50   +9       1.33    55.89     4.09    70.38     5.07    12.84     0.73    29.87     6.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     33   50   +1       3.37    65.28    -0.95    67.33     4.94     0.30     0.19    11.11     2.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     32   47  +10      -2.97    36.31     0.93    69.98     5.16    15.54     0.73    28.67     8.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking             33   47   -7       8.47    82.93     3.57    62.00     4.89   -11.48     0.01     1.46     0.20P    0.69R    0.00  
Barnet             30   46   +8       0.23    51.33     1.10    69.77     5.63    10.71     1.16    27.45     7.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Stockport          33   46   -6       6.76    78.01     3.62    60.44     4.94   -11.34     0.00     0.76     0.09P    1.65R    0.00  
Hartlepool         33   44   +2      -0.92    46.28     2.80    62.27     4.96     2.60     0.00     1.96     0.37P    0.47R    0.00  
Sutton_United      33   42   +3      -3.58    34.28     2.35    60.73     4.97     4.41     0.00     0.99     0.20P    1.08R    0.00  
Torquay            33   42   -6       2.53    61.79     4.43    57.58     4.98    -9.83     0.00     0.17     0.04P    5.12R    0.04  
Eastleigh          32   41   -6      -0.56    48.04    -2.19    58.09     5.08    -9.23     0.00     0.27     0.04P    4.76R    0.04  
Maidenhead         33   41   -7       3.09    64.68     4.40    57.43     4.97    -9.30     0.00     0.13     0.02P    6.29R    0.07  
Aldershot          33   40   -8       0.90    55.10     0.76    55.29     4.81   -11.67     0.00     0.04     0.01P   12.27R    0.08  
Wrexham            33   39   -1      -9.50    13.57    -5.97    56.86     4.91    -0.81     0.00     0.09     0.02P    5.66R    0.03  
Dag_&_Red          32   37   -5      -5.12    27.69    -2.70    54.82     5.06    -6.91     0.00     0.04     0.01P   13.97R    0.13  
Chesterfield       33   34  -15      -8.34    17.00   -10.25    51.23     4.92   -16.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.26R    1.42  
AFC_Fylde          31   31  -13     -11.80     8.07   -13.29    52.27     5.43   -12.06     0.00     0.02     0.00P   30.33R    1.15  
Ebbsfleet_United   33   30  -21     -10.33    11.57   -12.92    45.83     4.89   -24.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.19R   10.52  
Chorley            33   26  -28      -3.19    35.94    -2.93    37.54     4.56   -37.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.22R   86.52