Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 3 February 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 February 2020, Burnley 0 0 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        25   73  +45      16.09    99.89     7.07   103.40     4.00    66.90   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   51  +36      -6.16    15.98    -4.37    80.71     4.15    57.80     0.00    92.26    99.76    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        25   49  +28       6.18    80.66    15.09    71.47     4.87    35.08     0.00     7.57    86.21    97.05    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          25   41   +9      -2.20    37.63    -4.34    62.84     4.83    15.07     0.00     0.15     8.36    52.83    89.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   37   +8      -6.43    18.07    -5.84    60.22     4.93    16.04     0.00     0.01     4.24    31.01    79.10     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        25   36   +3       5.81    79.87     9.43    53.33     4.88     2.52     0.00     0.00     0.22     3.06    23.80     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd          25   35   +7      -6.19    19.39    -2.97    56.37     4.85    12.24     0.00     0.00     0.85    10.20    51.56     0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    25   35   +3       2.07    61.75     5.90    54.07     4.96     4.84     0.00     0.00     0.28     4.26    29.77     0.02R    0.00  
Everton          25   33   -6      -0.55    47.21    -3.79    49.90     4.83    -7.62     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.64     8.18     0.27R    0.01  
Arsenal          25   31   -2      -7.39    15.68    -7.71    50.93     4.83     0.77     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.77    11.64     0.15R    0.00  
Burnley          25   31  -10       3.90    71.76     1.52    45.82     4.65   -15.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.21     2.62R    0.10  
Newcastle        25   31  -12       2.33    63.87    -3.48    46.14     4.69   -16.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.27     2.62R    0.07  
Southampton      25   31  -15       5.24    78.25     0.34    46.83     4.84   -18.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     2.22     2.29R    0.06  
Crystal_Palace   25   30   -7      -0.75    46.35    -1.34    45.52     4.71   -10.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.33     2.66R    0.04  
Brighton         25   26   -7      -0.96    45.51     4.86    39.59     4.56   -13.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    22.00R    1.95  
Bournemouth      25   26  -13      -2.73    35.85    -3.18    38.39     4.46   -22.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    33.76R    2.99  
Aston_Villa      25   25  -15      -0.28    49.39     2.30    36.77     4.55   -25.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.50R    6.60  
West_Ham         25   24  -13      -5.20    23.96    -3.99    38.35     4.59   -20.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    33.76R    4.17  
Watford          25   23  -16      -4.30    27.31    -4.07    36.10     4.52   -24.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.76R    9.75  
Norwich          25   18  -23      -4.31    26.82    -1.44    29.08     4.38   -35.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.57R   74.26  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2020, Birmingham 2 1 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       30   56  +20       2.92    63.42     1.55    83.76     5.57    28.95    45.22    70.54    97.83    79.07P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    30   55  +19       4.78    71.60     5.67    81.80     5.52    26.42    28.82    56.94    95.87    68.30P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   52  +13       3.79    67.16     2.35    75.91     5.67    15.94     6.11    17.25    74.35    31.87P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   51  +11       6.47    78.28     5.86    74.61     5.58    13.50     3.61    11.36    66.72    23.58P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       30   50  +26      -1.90    40.38     9.85    78.00     5.58    35.07    12.95    31.28    86.76    50.21P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    30   50   +4       6.63    78.75     0.74    72.42     5.62     4.74     1.79     5.80    48.77    14.35P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         30   47   +8       2.52    62.41     2.94    70.20     5.61     9.80     0.75     2.95    36.38    10.29P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         30   46   +1       2.87    63.93    -2.00    68.82     5.54     2.51     0.29     1.42    25.40     6.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall        30   45   +3       5.76    76.53     5.39    66.66     5.57     2.72     0.12     0.59    15.71     3.25P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       30   44   +6       1.29    56.30     3.67    66.38     5.66     6.58     0.14     0.71    15.87     3.77P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       30   43   +7      -0.41    48.40     3.41    66.17     5.60     8.82     0.12     0.57    15.13     3.79P    0.03R    0.00  
Cardiff         30   43   -1       0.10    50.70    -3.62    65.92     5.71     0.47     0.08     0.51    13.20     3.45P    0.07R    0.00  
Derby           30   40   -4      -3.67    33.06    -7.92    61.11     5.53    -5.20     0.01     0.04     2.75     0.64P    0.67R    0.01  
Hull            30   39   -1      -1.84    41.79    -0.20    60.78     5.58    -1.44     0.00     0.03     2.55     0.52P    0.87R    0.01  
Reading         30   38   +2       0.20    51.92     6.56    59.01     5.50     0.75     0.00     0.00     1.09     0.19P    1.72R    0.05  
QPR             30   38   -7       2.24    61.28     2.31    57.59     5.53   -11.08     0.00     0.01     0.58     0.09P    3.93R    0.15  
Birmingham      30   37  -10       0.70    54.21    -2.69    56.20     5.48   -14.39     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.03P    6.02R    0.19  
Middlesbrough   30   36   -7      -5.50    24.88    -8.05    58.14     5.43    -6.27     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.15P    2.48R    0.06  
Charlton        30   33   -3      -4.20    31.15     2.79    53.15     5.52    -5.66     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   14.00R    0.89  
Huddersfield    30   32  -13      -2.40    39.31    -2.96    50.70     5.47   -17.70     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   28.42R    2.69  
Stoke           30   31  -10      -6.67    20.28    -5.16    51.73     5.51   -11.64     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   20.92R    1.86  
Wigan           30   29  -16      -5.14    26.05    -6.16    48.37     5.41   -19.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.96R    6.55  
Barnsley        30   24  -20      -8.84    13.54    -6.58    41.79     5.48   -26.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.92R   38.43  
Luton           30   24  -28      -5.68    24.16    -7.77    41.09     5.48   -36.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.93R   49.11  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2020, Accrington_Stanley 2 1 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            29   53  +23       2.26    60.56     5.66    80.38     5.33    33.84    50.54    70.13    95.69    77.78P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              29   50   +2      12.08    93.72     4.76    70.22     5.30     1.59     2.06     6.34    39.20    11.00P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         30   49  +19      -0.52    47.27     5.88    73.77     5.02    28.14     7.98    21.91    72.27    35.87P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              29   48  +12       1.76    58.66     2.48    73.16     5.25    19.12     5.92    17.23    64.89    29.95P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             27   48  +11       8.08    86.01     6.53    73.04     5.74    13.73     7.58    18.24    61.20    26.85P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           27   47  +12       1.43    56.99    -1.24    74.52     5.70    18.31    11.81    26.03    71.42    38.04P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           28   45  +11      -3.66    31.37    -4.57    72.02     5.49    18.56     4.99    13.77    56.87    27.12P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   44  +18       1.74    59.10    10.14    72.17     5.69    25.62     6.02    16.40    59.48    26.98P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       27   42   +8       0.51    52.99     1.45    66.72     5.69    10.29     0.93     2.89    21.61     7.03P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            27   41  +13      -2.64    36.60     3.00    68.89     5.66    20.10     1.86     5.70    35.86    13.79P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   41   +3      -0.62    47.00    -1.84    64.84     5.55     5.95     0.25     1.07    12.96     3.69P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           28   39   +6      -0.10    49.95     4.75    61.69     5.45     7.13     0.04     0.19     4.66     1.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       28   38   -6       1.29    57.11    -3.76    57.48     5.38    -9.64     0.00     0.02     0.77     0.15P    0.09R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         30   37   -1      -0.67    47.18     4.04    57.21     5.25     0.50     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.08P    0.07R    0.00  
Blackpool            27   34   +1      -3.07    34.80     0.78    59.03     5.63     3.82     0.01     0.06     2.00     0.50P    0.04R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   34   -7      -0.31    48.83    -3.73    57.02     5.55    -7.23     0.00     0.02     0.61     0.14P    0.16R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   29   33   -4      -2.91    36.15     2.13    51.61     5.23    -7.08     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    1.14R    0.00  
Rochdale             29   32  -13      -0.94    46.23    -1.59    48.33     5.04   -20.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.95R    0.01  
MK_Dons              29   31   -9      -4.04    31.18    -1.99    47.58     5.08   -15.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.66R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   28   -8      -4.81    26.59     0.34    46.66     5.27   -12.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.84R    0.01  
Tranmere             27   22  -20      -3.91    30.16    -1.68    37.06     5.28   -33.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.08R    2.43  
Southend             28   16  -38     -10.55     6.70   -16.78    30.60     5.04   -51.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.32R   25.91  
Bolton               26   11  -33      -1.51    42.78   -14.75    25.57     5.23   -49.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.65R   71.63  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2020, Cambridge_Utd 2 1 Colchester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          31   59  +20       8.47    84.41     8.06    84.76     5.41    27.79    36.68    80.79    99.47    85.64P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            30   55  +19       7.64    81.84     9.68    80.13     5.61    23.67    12.38    50.08    95.24    60.67P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         29   54  +18       3.72    67.12     2.20    84.31     5.80    28.35    35.55    77.43    98.79    83.79P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           30   54   +8       7.92    83.54     0.76    79.46     5.58    13.14     8.71    41.77    93.60    54.25P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      30   52  +14       4.50    70.74     4.66    75.44     5.61    16.19     2.96    19.42    80.53    34.03P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       31   49  +14      -0.78    46.25     3.45    72.21     5.37    17.95     0.68     7.66    63.75    22.99P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       29   48  +20       3.67    67.75    13.24    74.77     5.79    25.06     2.77    18.24    79.34    33.26P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         31   47   +5      -1.02    45.24    -3.08    70.38     5.37     9.15     0.24     3.57    46.88    15.54P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     31   45   +4      -0.03    50.14     0.12    66.03     5.29     4.74     0.02     0.56    18.71     4.89P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        31   45   +1       4.60    71.61     3.61    63.32     5.23    -2.00     0.01     0.12     7.85     1.45P    0.00R    0.00  
Salford_City     31   40   +0       3.17    65.49     8.68    57.80     5.28    -4.30     0.00     0.01     1.19     0.18P    0.04R    0.04  
Newport_County   28   39   +2       0.95    55.40     2.01    63.73     5.84     2.40     0.01     0.34    11.50     2.64P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     31   39   +0      -0.20    49.57     5.05    58.93     5.31    -1.20     0.00     0.01     1.64     0.34P    0.04R    0.04  
Oldham           31   36  -10      -5.86    24.24    -9.08    55.30     5.30   -11.88     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.06P    0.19R    0.19  
Walsall          31   36  -13      -5.22    26.93   -11.22    54.82     5.31   -15.20     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P    0.27R    0.27  
Cambridge_Utd    31   35  -10      -0.74    46.89    -0.41    51.63     5.13   -15.54     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.88R    0.88  
Grimsby          29   34   -4      -1.67    42.55     1.24    53.26     5.48    -9.66     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.61R    0.61  
Macclesfield     30   34   -5       0.48    53.56     5.28    51.12     5.22   -11.89     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    1.60R    1.60  
Leyton_Orient    31   34   -9      -0.86    46.93     2.60    51.17     5.26   -14.43     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00     1.51R    1.51  
Scunthorpe       31   33   -8     -10.65    10.81    -9.43    55.54     5.45    -5.12     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.11P    0.30R    0.30  
Carlisle         30   33  -16      -3.63    33.10    -8.98    54.24     5.56   -17.12     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P    0.63R    0.63  
Mansfield        31   31   -7     -14.38     4.07   -11.18    52.80     5.38    -5.28     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.03P    0.90R    0.90  
Morecambe        31   26  -25      -4.86    27.21    -7.19    41.41     5.06   -32.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.46R   39.46  
Stevenage        31   22  -18     -14.48     2.90   -10.07    39.46     5.13   -22.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.57R   53.57  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 February 2020, AFC_Fylde 1 2 Boreham_Wood; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             32   63  +30       8.74    84.37    14.42    85.80     5.21    35.37    78.65    99.28    83.89P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     33   56  +10       4.60    70.05     0.83    75.11     5.01    11.88     4.33    63.98    16.69P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            33   55   +4      10.08    87.72     4.36    72.67     4.91     3.89     1.41    43.30     8.12P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             33   54  +17      -4.09    32.07    -2.45    75.89     5.01    23.05     6.33    73.40    27.94P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   52  +14       4.59    70.61     8.78    73.56     5.17    17.56     2.37    54.68    13.30P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       32   50  +16      -6.14    23.97    -2.35    74.70     5.22    24.33     4.96    65.61    25.81P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            33   50   +9       1.17    55.49     3.80    70.46     5.07    12.95     0.58    31.04     7.13P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     32   47  +10      -2.70    37.74     1.39    69.89     5.18    15.42     0.47    28.56     7.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     32   47   +0       2.28    60.91    -1.17    65.25     5.18    -1.36     0.06     6.49     1.29P    0.12R    0.00  
Woking             33   47   -7       8.59    83.42     3.75    61.95     4.90   -11.56     0.01     1.48     0.22P    0.80R    0.00  
Barnet             30   46   +8       0.28    51.42     1.13    69.78     5.56    10.74     0.82    27.56     7.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Stockport          33   46   -6       6.62    77.69     3.42    60.45     4.92   -11.35     0.00     0.79     0.12P    1.55R    0.00  
Hartlepool         33   44   +2      -1.12    45.49     2.50    62.35     4.95     2.75     0.00     2.07     0.41P    0.50R    0.00  
Sutton_United      33   42   +3      -3.46    34.98     2.58    60.70     4.96     4.32     0.00     0.94     0.17P    1.03R    0.00  
Torquay            33   42   -6       2.50    61.53     4.40    57.59     4.99    -9.84     0.00     0.24     0.04P    5.13R    0.02  
Eastleigh          32   41   -6      -0.43    48.41    -2.01    58.00     5.08    -9.36     0.00     0.24     0.04P    5.00R    0.02  
Maidenhead         33   41   -7       2.94    64.31     4.16    57.48     4.95    -9.20     0.00     0.13     0.01P    6.12R    0.04  
Aldershot          33   40   -8       0.96    55.39     0.89    55.24     4.83   -11.72     0.00     0.03     0.01P   12.72R    0.07  
Wrexham            33   39   -1      -9.39    13.83    -5.80    56.82     4.90    -0.87     0.00     0.09     0.01P    5.76R    0.04  
Dag_&_Red          32   37   -5      -5.38    26.67    -3.04    54.95     5.05    -6.70     0.00     0.06     0.01P   13.15R    0.13  
Chesterfield       33   34  -15      -8.34    17.07   -10.32    51.24     4.94   -16.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.36R    1.35  
AFC_Fylde          31   31  -13     -12.00     7.53   -13.56    52.36     5.46   -11.92     0.00     0.01     0.00P   30.01R    1.21  
Ebbsfleet_United   33   30  -21     -10.16    11.89   -12.64    45.77     4.89   -24.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.48R   10.76  
Chorley            33   26  -28      -3.23    35.55    -3.07    37.55     4.54   -37.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.26R   86.36