Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 31 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 29 January 2020, West_Ham 0 2 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        24   70  +41      15.98    99.89     5.95   102.77     4.17    64.60    99.89   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         24   51  +38      -5.08    18.98    -3.39    82.88     4.38    61.38     0.11    94.41    99.88    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        24   48  +28       6.74    83.25    15.37    71.96     5.15    35.27     0.00     5.43    86.59    97.22    99.82     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          24   40   +9      -1.79    39.61    -4.21    63.07     5.06    14.78     0.00     0.15     9.85    58.71    90.75     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   34   +7      -5.50    21.65    -2.55    57.13     5.10    12.75     0.00     0.01     1.39    15.02    59.68     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham        24   34   +6      -7.86    12.77    -7.48    57.87     5.15    12.90     0.00     0.01     1.74    18.91    64.85     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    24   34   +3       2.17    62.38     5.62    54.05     5.15     4.24     0.00     0.00     0.36     5.34    32.71     0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        24   33   +2       4.44    74.43     8.99    51.47     5.10     1.19     0.00     0.00     0.10     1.98    16.78     0.16R    0.00  
Southampton      24   31  -11       5.01    77.10     1.12    47.45     4.97   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     3.48     2.04R    0.06  
Arsenal          24   30   -2      -6.98    16.38    -7.64    51.71     5.09     1.35     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.85    17.75     0.18R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   24   30   -6       0.41    53.30    -0.54    47.26     4.97    -8.98     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.23     3.90     1.71R    0.03  
Everton          24   30   -7      -1.70    40.59    -4.13    48.20     5.03    -8.64     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.39     5.50     1.11R    0.02  
Burnley          24   30  -10       4.02    72.91     1.36    45.87     4.87   -16.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.87     3.49R    0.13  
Newcastle        24   30  -12       2.92    67.39    -2.99    46.99     4.88   -15.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     2.70     2.30R    0.08  
Brighton         24   25   -7      -0.83    46.04     4.35    39.61     4.80   -14.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    25.07R    2.46  
Aston_Villa      24   25  -14       0.56    54.48     2.38    38.11     4.85   -24.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    41.21R    4.71  
West_Ham         24   23  -13      -4.71    25.38    -3.98    38.89     4.86   -19.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    32.50R    4.04  
Bournemouth      24   23  -14      -3.74    30.31    -3.15    36.84     4.75   -23.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    50.52R    7.03  
Watford          24   23  -15      -3.32    31.93    -3.82    37.44     4.75   -22.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    44.97R    6.40  
Norwich          24   17  -23      -4.10    27.41    -1.25    28.97     4.58   -36.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.72R   75.05  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 31 January 2020, Cardiff 1 1 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    29   55  +20       6.18    77.77     6.63    84.19     5.69    28.93    44.24    72.32    98.04    79.89P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       29   53  +18       2.23    60.37     1.12    83.13     5.78    28.79    36.10    65.75    96.69    75.30P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   29   51  +12       7.38    81.94     6.14    76.38     5.72    15.09     6.11    17.53    76.37    30.92P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          29   49  +12       2.86    63.42     2.40    74.87     5.87    15.83     4.27    13.22    67.82    27.26P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       29   47  +22      -2.24    38.76     7.78    75.97     5.78    30.42     6.56    19.05    77.21    38.21P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    29   47   +3       5.06    73.41    -0.13    70.69     5.85     3.55     0.90     3.61    37.81    10.46P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         29   46   +8       3.00    64.37     3.12    70.87     5.84    10.22     0.92     3.68    41.27    12.09P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         29   45   +1       3.13    65.42    -2.15    68.78     5.75     1.96     0.34     1.60    25.81     6.86P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall        29   44   +3       5.82    77.02     5.09    66.75     5.80     2.30     0.13     0.84    16.89     3.67P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       29   43   +6       1.55    58.02     3.57    66.57     5.86     6.36     0.21     0.84    17.22     4.36P    0.03R    0.00  
Cardiff         30   43   -1       0.16    51.10    -3.49    65.89     5.69     0.44     0.05     0.41    12.87     3.26P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       29   42   +7       0.10    50.90     3.66    66.94     5.79     9.37     0.15     0.96    19.22     4.96P    0.03R    0.00  
Derby           30   40   -4      -3.79    32.43    -8.09    61.15     5.57    -5.17     0.00     0.04     2.82     0.67P    0.45R    0.00  
Hull            29   39   +3      -1.81    41.39     1.68    62.70     5.83     3.44     0.02     0.12     6.03     1.35P    0.38R    0.01  
Reading         30   38   +2       0.23    51.83     6.64    59.05     5.51     0.80     0.00     0.02     1.09     0.21P    1.50R    0.06  
QPR             29   38   -6       3.18    65.77     2.67    59.19     5.79    -9.84     0.01     0.02     1.51     0.23P    2.03R    0.09  
Middlesbrough   29   35   -7      -5.12    25.96    -7.98    58.67     5.68    -6.00     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.27P    2.07R    0.09  
Birmingham      29   34  -11      -0.52    48.01    -3.03    54.11     5.67   -16.03     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P   10.77R    0.76  
Huddersfield    29   32  -12      -1.35    44.20    -2.63    51.37     5.63   -17.68     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   22.03R    2.35  
Stoke           30   31  -10      -6.66    20.50    -5.12    51.69     5.53   -11.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    18.64R    1.93  
Charlton        29   30   -4      -5.43    25.58     2.43    51.79     5.72    -6.24     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   18.00R    2.21  
Wigan           29   26  -17      -6.63    19.45    -6.75    45.67     5.58   -22.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.23R   15.58  
Barnsley        29   24  -19      -7.86    15.95    -6.24    42.88     5.68   -26.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.03R   31.89  
Luton           29   24  -26      -5.18    26.27    -7.34    41.68     5.66   -36.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.75R   45.03  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 29 January 2020, Gillingham 2 0 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            28   50  +22       1.12    55.14     5.51    79.32     5.57    33.69    43.09    63.43    93.16    72.53P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              28   50   +4      12.94    95.31     6.00    71.86     5.50     3.98     4.70    11.76    52.21    17.36P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              28   48  +15       2.09    60.23     3.96    75.54     5.50    23.66    15.48    33.61    79.25    46.20P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         29   46  +16      -1.27    43.56     4.34    71.39     5.22    23.85     4.03    11.74    54.97    22.87P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           27   45  +13      -3.05    33.93    -3.79    73.59     5.71    20.92     9.94    22.39    67.59    36.66P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             26   45  +10       6.60    81.62     5.73    71.10     5.94    12.35     4.93    11.90    48.59    19.34P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           26   44  +10       0.56    52.65    -2.18    72.69     5.92    16.03     7.88    18.13    59.88    29.27P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   41  +17       0.67    53.44     9.95    70.84     5.86    25.06     4.72    12.40    51.28    22.03P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            26   41  +14      -1.64    41.19     3.44    70.31     5.85    21.23     3.82    10.07    46.48    19.99P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   41   +4       0.21    51.23    -1.78    65.66     5.76     6.09     0.64     2.04    17.02     5.32P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       26   39   +7      -0.68    46.58     0.95    65.09     5.91     9.33     0.65     1.96    15.93     5.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Gillingham           28   39   +6       0.03    50.48     4.90    61.65     5.47     7.06     0.07     0.24     4.74     1.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       27   38   -5       2.33    62.66    -3.29    59.10     5.61    -8.20     0.00     0.10     2.03     0.44P    0.07R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         29   37   +0       0.23    51.72     4.26    59.06     5.49     2.24     0.01     0.03     1.65     0.32P    0.05R    0.00  
Blackpool            26   34   +2      -2.18    39.07     1.06    60.13     5.82     4.41     0.03     0.14     3.54     0.91P    0.04R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           26   34   -6       0.81    54.97    -3.08    58.48     5.79    -6.07     0.01     0.06     1.66     0.38P    0.13R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   28   30   -5      -4.18    29.59     1.58    50.19     5.42    -7.78     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    2.58R    0.00  
Rochdale             28   29  -14      -2.24    39.42    -2.01    46.46     5.26   -21.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.39R    0.02  
AFC_Wimbledon        27   28   -7      -3.82    30.90     0.65    47.75     5.44   -12.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.62R    0.01  
MK_Dons              28   28  -11      -4.78    27.15    -2.73    45.60     5.27   -17.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   12.20R    0.02  
Tranmere             26   22  -18      -3.18    33.39    -0.73    38.52     5.52   -31.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.47R    0.85  
Southend             27   13  -39     -12.06     3.77   -17.52    28.64     5.29   -53.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.70R   27.50  
Bolton               25    8  -35      -2.22    38.55   -15.21    23.69     5.47   -51.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.74R   71.61  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2020, Bradford 1 1 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          30   56  +19       7.32    81.10     7.78    83.27     5.62    27.00    31.52    74.49    98.42    80.59P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           29   54   +9       9.05    86.84     1.34    80.61     5.77    13.84    15.94    53.15    94.41    62.88P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            29   52  +18       6.36    78.18     9.27    78.34     5.79    22.43     9.98    40.07    90.08    51.69P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         28   51  +17       2.56    62.15     1.80    83.27     6.02    28.23    34.16    73.12    97.64    80.41P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       30   49  +15       0.59    53.02     4.47    73.98     5.54    19.48     2.09    15.23    71.98    30.86P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      29   49  +13       3.28    65.69     4.19    73.98     5.80    15.44     2.60    15.93    69.51    28.65P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         30   47   +8      -0.69    46.82    -1.53    72.43     5.55    13.07     0.98     8.97    59.65    23.51P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       28   45  +19       2.89    64.23    13.50    73.79     5.95    25.06     2.61    16.94    71.03    29.80P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     30   44   +4       0.26    51.36     0.04    66.50     5.45     4.91     0.06     1.02    19.68     5.33P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        30   44   +1       5.26    74.61     4.03    63.91     5.43    -1.67     0.02     0.30     9.18     1.78P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   27   39   +3       1.63    58.55     2.05    64.74     6.04     2.90     0.04     0.76    14.23     3.63P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City     30   39   +0       3.49    67.28     8.72    57.68     5.47    -5.01     0.00     0.01     1.05     0.18P    0.09R    0.09  
Crawley_Town     30   36   -2      -1.21    44.88     3.97    57.12     5.55    -3.49     0.00     0.01     0.82     0.15P    0.17R    0.17  
Walsall          30   36  -12      -4.15    31.36   -10.75    56.23     5.56   -14.12     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.11P    0.24R    0.24  
Macclesfield     29   34   -4       1.26    57.38     5.44    52.35     5.44   -11.11     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    1.49R    1.49  
Grimsby          28   33   -4      -1.24    44.38     1.21    53.44     5.60    -9.80     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    0.88R    0.88  
Scunthorpe       30   33   -6     -10.22    11.36    -8.96    57.41     5.68    -2.36     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.27P    0.21R    0.21  
Oldham           30   33  -13      -6.57    21.05   -10.65    53.10     5.50   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    1.19R    1.19  
Cambridge_Utd    30   32  -11      -2.17    39.76    -1.19    49.50     5.30   -17.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P    4.04R    4.04  
Carlisle         29   32  -16      -3.12    35.47    -8.83    53.91     5.76   -18.11     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    1.24R    1.24  
Leyton_Orient    30   31  -12      -1.64    42.84     0.92    48.75     5.39   -18.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    6.61R    6.61  
Mansfield        30   30   -7     -13.76     4.55   -10.83    53.57     5.63    -4.65     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P    1.12R    1.12  
Morecambe        30   26  -24      -4.28    29.62    -7.46    42.20     5.23   -32.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.82R   41.82  
Stevenage        30   22  -15     -14.15     3.01    -8.54    41.70     5.38   -17.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.90R   40.90  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2020, Eastleigh 0 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             31   60  +29       7.75    82.05    14.40    84.77     5.42    35.34    70.54    98.42    77.69P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     32   55  +10       5.12    72.23     1.02    75.65     5.26    12.10     6.53    67.38    19.32P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             32   53  +17      -3.15    35.52    -1.61    77.50     5.21    25.04    12.63    81.71    35.46P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            32   52   +3       8.75    84.92     3.81    70.90     5.17     2.68     1.08    31.25     6.19P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            32   50  +10       2.42    60.87     4.60    71.89     5.29    14.04     1.44    41.72     9.62P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       31   49  +13       3.38    65.61     8.37    71.77     5.37    16.31     1.61    41.72     9.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County       31   47  +13      -6.48    22.40    -3.46    73.23     5.45    21.58     3.59    54.36    20.09P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     31   47  +12      -1.79    41.59     2.69    72.28     5.38    18.90     1.85    46.63    13.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking             32   47   -5       8.86    84.42     4.13    63.45     5.13    -9.36     0.03     3.41     0.53P    0.41R    0.00  
Stockport          32   46   -4       7.23    79.68     4.23    62.13     5.22    -8.88     0.02     2.15     0.31P    0.91R    0.00  
Hartlepool         32   44   +3       0.12    51.15     3.30    63.47     5.15     3.36     0.01     3.90     0.68P    0.36R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     31   44   -2       1.04    55.21    -2.57    63.40     5.35    -3.74     0.05     3.72     0.69P    0.65R    0.00  
Barnet             29   43   +7      -0.91    45.64     0.84    68.31     5.81     9.95     0.61    20.90     5.34P    0.04R    0.00  
Torquay            32   42   -5       3.13    64.34     4.16    58.54     5.21    -9.59     0.00     0.49     0.07P    4.51R    0.03  
Sutton_United      32   41   +3      -3.11    35.83     2.53    61.31     5.21     4.66     0.00     1.62     0.34P    1.21R    0.00  
Aldershot          32   39   -8       1.29    57.02     0.87    55.37     5.04   -12.08     0.00     0.07     0.02P   13.58R    0.10  
Wrexham            32   38   -1      -8.93    14.93    -5.63    57.48     5.14    -0.47     0.00     0.26     0.06P    5.47R    0.02  
Eastleigh          31   38   -8      -1.36    44.52    -2.86    56.38     5.26   -11.42     0.00     0.15     0.03P   10.32R    0.14  
Maidenhead         32   38   -9       1.68    59.02     2.81    54.83     5.10   -12.82     0.00     0.04     0.00P   16.88R    0.22  
Dag_&_Red          31   36   -5      -5.05    27.59    -3.04    54.89     5.26    -7.33     0.00     0.06     0.01P   15.28R    0.16  
Chesterfield       32   34  -12      -8.25    17.04    -9.29    52.41     5.13   -13.39     0.00     0.01     0.00    30.22R    0.79  
AFC_Fylde          30   31  -12     -11.00     8.96   -13.11    54.05     5.66   -10.42     0.00     0.04     0.01P   21.63R    0.64  
Ebbsfleet_United   32   29  -21      -9.84    12.04   -12.67    46.01     5.11   -24.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.14R    9.32  
Chorley            32   25  -28      -3.18    35.93    -3.52    36.86     4.68   -39.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.37R   88.57