Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 30 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 29 January 2020, West_Ham 0 2 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        24   70  +41      15.99    99.89     5.96   102.78     4.18    64.66    99.93   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         24   51  +38      -5.07    19.04    -3.37    82.89     4.36    61.41     0.07    94.36    99.85    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        24   48  +28       6.82    83.63    15.49    71.99     5.14    35.30     0.00     5.49    86.78    97.23    99.80     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          24   40   +9      -1.80    39.51    -4.27    63.07     5.04    14.78     0.00     0.15     9.68    58.33    90.86     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   34   +7      -5.57    21.40    -2.66    57.21     5.08    12.89     0.00     0.00     1.32    15.41    60.50     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham        24   34   +6      -8.03    12.17    -7.75    57.93     5.15    12.99     0.00     0.00     1.75    18.92    65.41     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    24   34   +3       2.17    62.66     5.68    54.02     5.16     4.18     0.00     0.00     0.38     5.31    32.10     0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        24   33   +2       4.58    74.90     9.19    51.38     5.09     1.08     0.00     0.00     0.13     1.91    16.27     0.13R    0.00  
Southampton      24   31  -11       4.87    76.48     0.91    47.53     4.98   -16.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     3.66     2.08R    0.06  
Arsenal          24   30   -2      -6.91    16.69    -7.53    51.65     5.06     1.28     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.77    17.11     0.22R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   24   30   -6       0.34    52.72    -0.64    47.23     4.95    -9.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.26     3.65     1.64R    0.02  
Everton          24   30   -7      -1.69    40.86    -4.04    48.20     5.06    -8.67     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.45     5.68     1.18R    0.03  
Burnley          24   30  -10       4.04    73.05     1.37    45.86     4.86   -16.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.78     3.43R    0.10  
Newcastle        24   30  -12       2.80    66.65    -3.15    47.04     4.90   -15.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     2.96     2.27R    0.06  
Brighton         24   25   -7      -0.67    47.32     4.64    39.57     4.77   -14.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    25.21R    2.42  
Aston_Villa      24   25  -14       0.57    54.63     2.42    38.08     4.83   -24.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    41.05R    4.80  
West_Ham         24   23  -13      -4.71    25.58    -4.02    38.85     4.85   -19.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    32.43R    4.26  
Bournemouth      24   23  -14      -3.67    30.10    -3.09    36.84     4.71   -23.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    50.24R    6.98  
Watford          24   23  -15      -3.28    32.24    -3.81    37.43     4.75   -22.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    45.43R    6.63  
Norwich          24   17  -23      -4.15    27.20    -1.33    28.99     4.59   -36.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.67R   74.63  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2020, Blackburn 2 1 QPR; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    29   55  +20       6.13    77.45     6.57    84.15     5.70    28.91    43.87    72.00    98.07    79.65P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       29   53  +18       2.47    61.22     1.50    83.10     5.77    28.75    36.25    65.62    96.62    75.35P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   29   51  +12       7.56    82.60     6.38    76.28     5.78    14.95     6.10    17.44    75.34    30.27P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          29   49  +12       3.01    64.08     2.58    74.85     5.88    15.77     4.35    13.53    67.37    27.16P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       29   47  +22      -2.31    38.48     7.72    76.04     5.76    30.53     6.66    19.05    77.50    38.34P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    29   47   +3       5.21    74.20     0.07    70.64     5.82     3.44     0.89     3.43    36.72    10.02P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         29   46   +8       3.02    64.62     3.14    70.86     5.80    10.28     0.85     3.68    40.69    12.06P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         29   45   +1       3.06    64.94    -2.18    68.96     5.75     2.17     0.35     1.68    26.54     7.04P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall        29   44   +3       5.88    77.14     5.13    66.83     5.76     2.39     0.15     0.78    16.72     3.65P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       29   43   +6       1.65    58.34     3.74    66.54     5.84     6.27     0.17     0.88    16.85     4.21P    0.05R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       29   42   +7       0.04    50.46     3.58    67.03     5.83     9.50     0.21     1.00    19.60     5.31P    0.03R    0.00  
Cardiff         29   42   -1       0.61    53.35    -3.44    66.67     5.91     1.00     0.12     0.75    16.55     4.42P    0.07R    0.00  
Hull            29   39   +3      -1.77    41.64     1.69    62.59     5.81     3.23     0.02     0.12     5.84     1.33P    0.37R    0.01  
QPR             29   38   -6       3.39    67.14     3.00    59.07     5.73   -10.00     0.00     0.01     1.38     0.23P    2.19R    0.09  
Reading         29   37   +2       0.38    52.47     6.34    58.98     5.71     0.18     0.00     0.01     1.42     0.30P    1.76R    0.07  
Derby           29   37   -8      -3.89    31.78    -9.83    59.11     5.74    -9.74     0.00     0.02     1.32     0.32P    1.67R    0.03  
Middlesbrough   29   35   -7      -5.08    26.16    -7.98    58.70     5.72    -5.99     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.27P    2.09R    0.07  
Birmingham      29   34  -11      -0.62    47.74    -3.22    54.13     5.65   -15.97     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   10.82R    0.74  
Huddersfield    29   32  -12      -1.40    43.94    -2.74    51.54     5.63   -17.47     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   21.77R    2.36  
Stoke           29   31   -6      -6.79    19.55    -3.35    53.47     5.73    -7.08     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   12.24R    1.06  
Charlton        29   30   -4      -5.47    25.50     2.36    51.72     5.73    -6.33     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   19.23R    2.11  
Wigan           29   26  -17      -6.62    19.89    -6.79    45.59     5.55   -22.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.26R   16.13  
Barnsley        29   24  -19      -8.15    15.29    -6.63    42.95     5.67   -26.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.82R   31.37  
Luton           29   24  -26      -5.30    25.54    -7.61    41.61     5.66   -36.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.62R   45.96  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 29 January 2020, Gillingham 2 0 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            28   50  +22       1.40    56.95     5.90    79.16     5.57    33.39    42.46    62.41    92.74    71.19P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              28   50   +4      12.90    95.30     5.90    71.88     5.50     4.00     4.81    11.98    52.46    17.74P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              28   48  +15       2.05    60.14     3.91    75.51     5.45    23.61    15.27    33.32    79.32    46.09P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         29   46  +16      -1.25    43.93     4.36    71.33     5.25    23.73     4.11    11.73    54.26    22.75P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           27   45  +13      -3.11    33.41    -3.89    73.65     5.65    21.02    10.09    22.78    67.95    37.50P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             26   45  +10       6.66    81.89     5.88    71.05     5.90    12.29     4.79    11.77    48.24    19.01P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           26   44  +10       0.36    51.65    -2.43    72.79     5.91    16.24     8.17    18.51    60.72    29.58P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   41  +17       0.61    53.26     9.84    70.88     5.90    25.13     4.87    12.69    51.56    22.40P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            26   41  +14      -1.63    41.24     3.42    70.30     5.91    21.18     4.10    10.33    46.32    20.15P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   41   +4       0.18    50.89    -1.77    65.72     5.75     6.21     0.62     2.02    17.31     5.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       26   39   +7      -0.67    46.41     0.96    65.08     5.92     9.33     0.61     1.93    15.72     5.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Gillingham           28   39   +6       0.12    51.27     4.96    61.59     5.46     7.00     0.04     0.21     4.66     1.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       27   38   -5       2.34    62.81    -3.27    59.06     5.60    -8.25     0.03     0.09     1.99     0.41P    0.03R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         29   37   +0       0.36    52.58     4.41    59.03     5.43     2.21     0.01     0.04     1.51     0.29P    0.04R    0.00  
Blackpool            26   34   +2      -2.20    38.67     1.08    60.03     5.80     4.31     0.03     0.15     3.43     0.84P    0.05R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           26   34   -6       0.55    53.65    -3.39    58.59     5.78    -5.91     0.01     0.05     1.78     0.38P    0.10R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   28   30   -5      -4.05    30.16     1.77    50.13     5.41    -7.89     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    2.66R    0.00  
Rochdale             28   29  -14      -2.17    39.79    -1.88    46.48     5.27   -21.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.55R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        27   28   -7      -3.87    30.39     0.59    47.73     5.46   -12.28     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     6.84R    0.00  
MK_Dons              28   28  -11      -4.80    27.08    -2.78    45.66     5.28   -17.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.40R    0.02  
Tranmere             26   22  -18      -3.26    33.23    -0.89    38.64     5.56   -30.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.76R    0.96  
Southend             27   13  -39     -11.90     3.69   -17.27    28.58     5.26   -53.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.86R   28.18  
Bolton               25    8  -35      -2.33    37.87   -15.41    23.78     5.51   -51.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.71R   70.82  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2020, Bradford 1 1 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          30   56  +19       7.46    81.59     7.99    83.20     5.59    26.87    31.47    73.88    98.46    80.01P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           29   54   +9       9.02    86.99     1.36    80.57     5.74    13.78    16.24    52.74    94.46    62.54P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            29   52  +18       6.40    78.09     9.30    78.32     5.80    22.45     9.72    40.07    89.96    51.79P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         28   51  +17       2.59    62.24     1.88    83.23     6.06    28.17    33.96    72.70    97.48    80.17P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       30   49  +15       0.45    52.22     4.24    74.02     5.55    19.51     2.09    15.55    72.09    31.12P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      29   49  +13       3.33    66.18     4.33    73.93     5.80    15.38     2.50    15.81    69.43    28.24P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         30   47   +8      -0.73    46.70    -1.60    72.43     5.61    13.08     1.06     9.46    59.57    23.52P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       28   45  +19       2.72    63.35    13.31    73.89     5.98    25.18     2.85    17.58    71.32    30.93P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     30   44   +4       0.25    51.32     0.01    66.53     5.49     4.93     0.07     1.09    19.70     5.39P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        30   44   +1       5.17    74.38     3.92    63.98     5.43    -1.61     0.01     0.32     9.39     1.88P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   27   39   +3       1.67    59.13     2.08    64.63     6.04     2.78     0.04     0.74    13.75     3.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Salford_City     30   39   +0       3.44    66.86     8.64    57.73     5.47    -4.92     0.00     0.02     1.21     0.21P    0.10R    0.10  
Crawley_Town     30   36   -2      -1.05    45.55     4.18    57.03     5.52    -3.60     0.00     0.01     0.76     0.16P    0.16R    0.16  
Walsall          30   36  -12      -4.51    29.86   -11.21    56.39     5.55   -13.88     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.14P    0.22R    0.22  
Macclesfield     29   34   -4       1.55    59.03     5.90    52.22     5.46   -11.35     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    1.56R    1.56  
Grimsby          28   33   -4      -1.42    43.40     0.94    53.60     5.65    -9.59     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.06P    0.86R    0.86  
Scunthorpe       30   33   -6     -10.31    11.18    -9.05    57.48     5.67    -2.28     0.00     0.01     0.96     0.23P    0.17R    0.17  
Oldham           30   33  -13      -6.51    21.52   -10.59    53.06     5.48   -15.76     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    1.25R    1.25  
Cambridge_Utd    30   32  -11      -2.12    40.30    -1.06    49.43     5.27   -17.32     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.91R    3.91  
Carlisle         29   32  -16      -3.21    34.88    -8.94    53.97     5.74   -18.02     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P    1.20R    1.20  
Leyton_Orient    30   31  -12      -1.75    42.67     0.76    48.82     5.40   -18.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    6.20R    6.20  
Mansfield        30   30   -7     -13.72     4.54   -10.79    53.55     5.62    -4.67     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.05P    1.04R    1.04  
Morecambe        30   26  -24      -4.02    30.68    -7.10    42.08     5.26   -32.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.67R   42.67  
Stevenage        30   22  -15     -14.11     3.08    -8.48    41.71     5.40   -17.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.66R   40.66  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 January 2020, Eastleigh 0 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             31   60  +29       7.95    82.67    14.72    84.72     5.38    35.24    70.23    98.48    77.28P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     32   55  +10       5.10    71.80     0.96    75.68     5.23    12.17     6.39    67.37    19.22P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             32   53  +17      -3.22    35.16    -1.78    77.53     5.19    25.14    12.92    81.86    35.22P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            32   52   +3       8.78    84.86     3.86    70.87     5.21     2.65     1.03    30.88     5.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            32   50  +10       2.39    60.81     4.62    71.88     5.27    14.01     1.40    41.64     9.71P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       31   49  +13       3.30    65.60     8.24    71.74     5.40    16.27     1.63    41.17    10.16P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       31   47  +13      -6.61    21.78    -3.60    73.29     5.46    21.66     3.75    54.88    20.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     31   47  +12      -1.80    41.77     2.70    72.31     5.40    18.95     1.92    46.94    13.66P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             32   47   -5       8.82    84.29     4.02    63.45     5.14    -9.38     0.02     3.32     0.48P    0.48R    0.00  
Stockport          32   46   -4       7.25    79.75     4.35    62.06     5.20    -8.97     0.02     2.14     0.34P    1.07R    0.00  
Hartlepool         32   44   +3      -0.13    49.77     2.96    63.58     5.14     3.53     0.02     4.02     0.76P    0.35R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     31   44   -2       1.13    55.76    -2.45    63.45     5.39    -3.67     0.05     3.79     0.71P    0.60R    0.00  
Barnet             29   43   +7      -0.98    45.05     0.68    68.27     5.80     9.95     0.62    20.74     5.28P    0.06R    0.00  
Torquay            32   42   -5       3.39    65.45     4.53    58.47     5.21    -9.71     0.00     0.54     0.08P    4.60R    0.03  
Sutton_United      32   41   +3      -3.02    36.39     2.68    61.22     5.18     4.57     0.00     1.56     0.33P    1.27R    0.01  
Aldershot          32   39   -8       1.22    56.81     0.72    55.42     5.01   -12.02     0.00     0.06     0.01P   13.22R    0.13  
Wrexham            32   38   -1      -8.89    15.01    -5.58    57.47     5.15    -0.47     0.00     0.26     0.06P    5.67R    0.05  
Eastleigh          31   38   -8      -1.37    44.24    -2.93    56.41     5.30   -11.38     0.00     0.18     0.03P   10.16R    0.12  
Maidenhead         32   38   -9       1.74    58.82     2.93    54.85     5.12   -12.77     0.00     0.04     0.01P   16.63R    0.26  
Dag_&_Red          31   36   -5      -5.28    26.80    -3.32    54.99     5.31    -7.21     0.00     0.07     0.02P   14.84R    0.16  
Chesterfield       32   34  -12      -8.08    17.65    -9.03    52.25     5.17   -13.66     0.00     0.01     0.00P   31.13R    0.91  
AFC_Fylde          30   31  -12     -10.88     9.38   -12.92    53.96     5.69   -10.57     0.00     0.05     0.01P   22.23R    0.66  
Ebbsfleet_United   32   29  -21      -9.92    12.03   -12.83    46.11     5.12   -24.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.37R    9.08  
Chorley            32   25  -28      -3.19    35.70    -3.52    36.90     4.69   -39.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.33R   88.59