Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 26 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 23 January 2020, Wolverhampton 1 2 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        23   67  +39      15.33    99.86     5.43   102.20     4.37    64.59    99.82   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         24   51  +38      -5.00    19.40    -3.27    82.84     4.37    61.33     0.18    94.13    99.87   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        24   48  +28       6.56    82.58    15.09    72.08     5.14    35.45     0.00     5.75    87.02    97.44    99.84     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          24   40   +9      -1.79    39.54    -4.29    63.07     5.08    14.81     0.00     0.12     9.64    59.08    90.74     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   34   +7      -5.61    21.19    -2.69    57.19     5.07    12.89     0.00     0.00     1.25    15.28    60.54     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham        24   34   +6      -7.84    12.79    -7.43    57.82     5.17    12.82     0.00     0.01     1.72    18.53    64.27     0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    24   34   +3       2.21    62.67     5.76    53.99     5.14     4.16     0.00     0.00     0.31     5.08    32.25     0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        24   33   +2       4.37    74.33     8.89    51.46     5.10     1.20     0.00     0.00     0.09     1.94    16.73     0.14R    0.00  
Southampton      24   31  -11       5.01    77.27     1.15    47.45     4.95   -16.38     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.17     3.60     2.08R    0.05  
Arsenal          24   30   -2      -6.91    16.78    -7.52    51.65     5.08     1.27     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.56    17.46     0.24R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   24   30   -6       0.25    52.06    -0.73    47.21     4.97    -9.05     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.24     3.66     1.80R    0.04  
Everton          24   30   -7      -1.82    40.26    -4.22    48.26     5.08    -8.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.44     5.89     1.19R    0.03  
Burnley          24   30  -10       4.10    73.36     1.45    45.91     4.88   -16.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     1.94     3.47R    0.12  
Newcastle        24   30  -12       2.93    67.39    -3.03    47.03     4.92   -15.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     2.84     2.37R    0.08  
Brighton         24   25   -7      -0.74    46.96     4.54    39.59     4.75   -14.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    25.40R    2.27  
Aston_Villa      24   25  -14       0.64    55.09     2.54    38.04     4.84   -25.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    42.03R    4.94  
West_Ham         23   23  -11      -4.16    27.75    -3.55    39.37     4.97   -19.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    29.64R    3.58  
Bournemouth      24   23  -14      -3.76    29.70    -3.13    36.85     4.71   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    50.65R    6.90  
Watford          24   23  -15      -3.29    31.92    -3.74    37.40     4.77   -23.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    46.02R    6.72  
Norwich          24   17  -23      -4.11    27.51    -1.24    28.95     4.59   -37.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.93R   75.28  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 January 2020, Stoke 2 0 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       28   53  +19       3.41    66.49     1.77    84.92     5.97    30.45    47.71    73.85    98.09    81.64P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    28   52  +19       5.19    74.33     6.62    82.99     5.87    28.50    31.55    62.72    96.61    72.86P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          29   49  +12       2.84    63.20     2.42    74.94     5.88    15.94     3.92    12.84    68.42    27.33P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   28   48  +11       6.24    78.41     5.90    73.87     5.97    12.85     2.93     9.77    60.73    20.79P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       28   47  +23      -1.03    44.69     8.49    77.98     5.98    32.31    11.46    29.31    85.45    48.05P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         29   46   +8       3.00    64.75     3.11    70.88     5.80    10.25     0.84     3.57    40.97    11.91P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         29   45   +1       3.22    65.90    -2.00    68.83     5.77     1.97     0.32     1.54    26.14     6.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall        28   44   +4       6.81    81.05     5.39    67.60     5.90     2.59     0.24     1.15    20.93     4.78P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_City    28   44   +2       3.85    68.68    -0.52    68.72     5.98     1.98     0.39     1.77    26.58     6.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   42   +8       1.22    56.48     4.28    68.69     6.03    10.96     0.40     1.90    29.24     8.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       28   40   +5       0.45    52.93     3.40    65.27     6.08     5.87     0.09     0.59    13.25     3.26P    0.06R    0.00  
Hull            28   39   +4      -0.79    46.40     2.09    64.96     6.03     5.80     0.08     0.45    12.31     2.95P    0.11R    0.00  
Cardiff         28   39   -2      -0.73    46.78    -3.98    64.71     6.12    -0.49     0.06     0.40    10.86     2.79P    0.14R    0.01  
QPR             28   38   -5       4.26    70.85     3.17    60.16     5.99    -9.49     0.01     0.04     2.64     0.41P    1.19R    0.02  
Reading         28   37   +3       1.54    58.53     7.13    60.51     5.90     1.43     0.00     0.04     2.96     0.58P    0.73R    0.02  
Derby           28   37   -7      -2.72    36.66    -9.22    61.05     5.97    -7.90     0.01     0.06     3.37     0.84P    0.65R    0.01  
Middlesbrough   29   35   -7      -5.07    26.08    -7.96    58.69     5.71    -6.02     0.00     0.01     1.10     0.24P    1.48R    0.05  
Birmingham      29   34  -11      -0.71    47.25    -3.33    54.17     5.67   -15.97     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    8.36R    0.41  
Stoke           29   31   -6      -6.79    19.78    -3.31    53.49     5.72    -7.07     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    9.11R    0.61  
Charlton        29   30   -4      -5.53    25.23     2.32    51.75     5.73    -6.30     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   15.13R    1.31  
Huddersfield    28   29  -13      -2.91    36.00    -3.53    49.17     5.80   -19.61     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    30.31R    3.68  
Barnsley        29   24  -19      -8.17    15.41    -6.65    42.99     5.72   -26.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.89R   22.44  
Wigan           28   23  -18      -8.07    13.98    -7.52    43.60     5.74   -23.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.77R   19.08  
Luton           28   21  -27      -6.58    19.85    -8.08    39.50     5.78   -37.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.05R   52.36  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 January 2020, Bristol_Rovers 0 0 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Ipswich              27   48  +16       2.88    64.19     4.06    76.81     5.72    24.54    25.95    46.26    85.74    57.44P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            27   47  +21       0.26    51.02     5.63    77.72     5.79    32.72    35.14    55.66    89.76    65.82P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              27   47   +3      11.67    93.75     5.44    70.18     5.73     2.90     3.38     9.02    44.04    14.14P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             25   44  +10       6.83    82.96     5.59    71.12     6.10    11.81     5.87    14.09    52.06    21.61P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         28   43  +14      -2.34    38.35     3.18    69.63     5.48    21.65     3.03     8.61    45.75    18.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Sunderland           26   42  +12      -3.98    29.02    -3.82    72.46     5.93    20.67     9.00    20.13    63.66    34.11P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   41  +17       0.54    52.70     9.77    70.89     5.88    25.16     5.59    14.47    55.12    24.54P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           25   41   +8      -0.62    46.32    -3.44    70.75     6.18    13.58     5.68    13.75    50.30    23.53P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        26   40   +4       0.62    53.53    -1.69    66.20     5.94     6.34     1.09     3.21    22.56     7.57P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            25   38  +12      -2.24    38.22     3.22    69.59     6.00    20.77     3.83    10.09    45.57    19.73P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       25   38   +7      -0.21    49.05     1.11    65.82     6.12     9.89     1.11     3.23    22.08     7.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         28   37   +2       1.01    55.74     5.35    60.77     5.70     4.72     0.05     0.25     4.76     1.16P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       26   37   -5       2.80    65.15    -3.09    59.69     5.84    -7.91     0.04     0.20     3.34     0.73P    0.04R    0.00  
Gillingham           27   36   +4      -0.72    46.70     4.19    59.86     5.70     4.85     0.05     0.17     3.43     0.85P    0.04R    0.00  
Blackpool            25   34   +3      -1.38    43.09     1.31    61.65     6.02     5.70     0.14     0.62     7.68     2.15P    0.03R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   34   -4       1.31    57.98    -2.22    59.95     5.97    -3.87     0.06     0.23     4.02     0.96P    0.08R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   27   30   -3      -3.41    33.10     2.68    51.76     5.66    -5.53     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    1.85R    0.00  
Rochdale             27   29  -13      -1.08    45.22    -1.34    47.51     5.45   -21.04     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     9.01R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   27   -7      -3.56    31.77     0.53    47.91     5.64   -12.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    7.51R    0.01  
MK_Dons              27   25  -12      -5.85    21.85    -2.84    44.14     5.51   -18.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.48R    0.06  
Tranmere             25   22  -17      -2.46    36.98    -0.59    39.52     5.77   -30.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.01R    0.86  
Southend             26   13  -37     -11.60     4.05   -17.35    29.09     5.41   -53.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.31R   27.47  
Bolton               24    7  -35      -2.19    38.38   -15.69    23.99     5.69   -51.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.61R   71.58  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 January 2020, Carlisle 2 1 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          29   56  +21       8.16    84.44     9.04    84.77     5.80    29.20    34.66    80.14    99.00    85.17P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           28   54  +11       9.84    89.64     2.56    82.50     5.93    16.64    19.80    63.59    97.13    71.53P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         27   50  +17       3.22    65.60     2.26    84.65     6.18    29.80    35.39    78.07    98.53    84.14P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            28   49  +16       5.70    76.02     8.74    77.16     5.95    21.11     5.18    30.25    86.52    42.94P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       29   46  +13      -0.35    48.16     3.43    72.15     5.77    17.18     0.82     8.90    61.45    23.40P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      28   46  +10       2.66    63.15     2.70    71.93     6.00    11.84     0.91     8.71    57.36    19.71P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         29   46   +8      -0.29    48.44    -1.50    73.16     5.77    13.60     1.00    10.98    65.98    27.01P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       27   44  +19       3.12    65.65    13.33    73.85     6.14    24.71     2.06    15.87    72.25    29.37P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     29   44   +7       0.94    54.83     2.00    68.98     5.65     9.51     0.16     2.79    37.20    10.94P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        29   41   -1       4.20    71.03     2.81    61.82     5.60    -4.26     0.00     0.13     5.83     1.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   26   36   +2       0.63    53.77     1.95    63.36     6.22     2.27     0.02     0.49    11.49     2.92P    0.00R    0.00  
Salford_City     29   36   -4       3.14    66.34     6.54    55.09     5.63   -10.40     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.07P    0.37R    0.37  
Walsall          29   36  -10      -3.42    34.14    -9.67    58.62     5.74   -10.68     0.00     0.02     1.90     0.43P    0.07R    0.07  
Crawley_Town     29   35   -2      -0.98    45.84     3.57    56.57     5.67    -4.92     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.14P    0.15R    0.15  
Macclesfield     28   34   -3       2.46    63.78     6.27    53.23     5.66   -10.85     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.02P    0.94R    0.94  
Scunthorpe       29   33   -3     -10.14    11.10    -7.94    59.24     5.89     1.31     0.00     0.05     2.91     0.87P    0.12R    0.12  
Cambridge_Utd    29   32   -7      -2.09    40.11     0.82    51.93     5.57   -11.63     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    1.24R    1.24  
Leyton_Orient    29   31  -10      -1.11    45.48     1.68    49.51     5.57   -17.67     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    4.10R    4.10  
Mansfield        29   30   -5     -13.02     5.00    -9.80    55.48     5.84    -1.86     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.17P    0.43R    0.43  
Grimsby          27   30   -6      -2.26    38.69     0.02    51.53     5.81   -12.11     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    1.99R    1.99  
Oldham           29   30  -15      -7.47    17.54   -11.67    50.90     5.62   -18.46     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    2.31R    2.31  
Carlisle         28   29  -19      -4.17    29.78   -11.01    51.32     5.88   -22.47     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    2.88R    2.88  
Morecambe        29   23  -26      -5.40    23.78    -8.61    39.46     5.36   -36.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.29R   61.29  
Stevenage        29   22  -13     -13.39     3.63    -7.49    43.25     5.60   -15.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.11R   24.11  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 January 2020, Boreham_Wood 1 1 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             30   59  +29       8.05    83.44    14.25    85.01     5.62    35.17    70.87    98.28    77.68P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     32   55  +10       5.03    71.78     0.95    75.67     5.24    12.13     6.49    67.60    19.42P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             32   53  +17      -3.13    35.79    -1.57    77.44     5.22    24.98    11.94    81.47    34.47P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            32   50  +10       2.46    61.18     4.70    71.89     5.24    14.08     1.32    41.72     9.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       31   49  +13       3.38    65.62     8.37    71.75     5.41    16.30     1.54    41.21     9.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Halifax            31   49   +1       7.77    82.68     2.69    69.14     5.34     0.50     0.45    20.87     3.75P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County       31   47  +13      -6.71    21.35    -3.80    73.38     5.45    21.81     3.72    55.45    20.62P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             31   47   -4       9.65    87.00     4.19    64.87     5.40    -8.37     0.07     6.41     0.98P    0.29R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     30   46  +12      -1.41    43.27     2.68    72.76     5.58    19.09     2.80    49.92    15.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Stockport          32   46   -4       7.22    79.88     4.27    62.06     5.21    -8.99     0.02     2.18     0.30P    0.97R    0.00  
Hartlepool         32   44   +3       0.11    50.72     3.30    63.53     5.16     3.45     0.02     3.93     0.73P    0.35R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     30   44   +0       1.84    59.05    -1.45    64.91     5.63    -1.49     0.14     7.24     1.55P    0.33R    0.00  
Barnet             29   43   +7      -0.92    45.64     0.78    68.26     5.86     9.89     0.62    20.86     5.45P    0.04R    0.00  
Torquay            32   42   -5       3.26    64.82     4.24    58.53     5.19    -9.62     0.00     0.53     0.06P    4.03R    0.02  
Sutton_United      32   41   +3      -3.10    35.90     2.56    61.27     5.18     4.61     0.00     1.52     0.33P    1.10R    0.00  
Wrexham            32   38   -1      -8.72    15.21    -5.29    57.42     5.13    -0.60     0.00     0.22     0.06P    5.28R    0.03  
Aldershot          31   38   -8       1.65    58.98     1.00    55.44     5.26   -12.60     0.00     0.11     0.01P   13.90R    0.09  
Maidenhead         32   38   -9       1.62    58.58     2.74    54.86     5.10   -12.77     0.00     0.04     0.01P   15.93R    0.15  
Eastleigh          30   37   -8      -1.01    45.75    -2.83    57.04     5.52   -11.02     0.00     0.29     0.05P    8.78R    0.10  
Dag_&_Red          31   36   -5      -5.06    27.63    -3.00    54.88     5.28    -7.34     0.00     0.08     0.02P   14.94R    0.14  
Chesterfield       32   34  -12      -8.17    16.94    -9.10    52.32     5.14   -13.50     0.00     0.01     0.00P   29.92R    0.66  
AFC_Fylde          30   31  -12     -11.06     8.92   -13.23    54.07     5.66   -10.37     0.00     0.06     0.01P   20.68R    0.54  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   26  -22     -11.15     8.79   -13.18    44.56     5.35   -25.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.06R   13.35  
Chorley            32   25  -28      -3.05    36.43    -3.28    36.81     4.66   -39.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.37R   84.91