Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 21 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 January 2020, Aston_Villa 2 1 Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        22   64  +38      14.51    99.83     5.63   101.28     4.57    64.63    99.68   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         24   51  +38      -4.95    19.82    -3.14    82.82     4.37    61.37     0.32    95.42    99.82    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        23   45  +25       6.38    82.42    14.44    70.70     5.35    32.78     0.00     4.31    77.22    93.49    99.43     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          23   39   +9      -1.19    42.68    -3.98    63.77     5.27    15.30     0.00     0.24    15.26    56.70    90.59     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   34   +9      -4.35    25.97    -0.99    59.75     5.25    16.74     0.00     0.02     4.64    26.37    74.35     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    23   34   +4       2.82    66.33     5.47    54.67     5.27     4.02     0.00     0.00     0.69     5.41    33.00     0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        24   33   +2       4.53    74.81     9.08    51.40     5.09     1.12     0.00     0.00     0.13     1.45    14.04     0.13R    0.01  
Tottenham        23   31   +5      -8.64    10.00    -7.08    57.35     5.32    13.78     0.00     0.00     2.06    14.14    57.90     0.01R    0.00  
Southampton      24   31  -11       4.99    77.27     1.08    47.45     4.92   -16.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     2.91     2.06R    0.08  
Crystal_Palace   24   30   -6       0.28    52.27    -0.71    47.27     4.98    -8.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.18     3.08     1.83R    0.03  
Everton          24   30   -7      -1.82    40.22    -4.26    48.24     5.06    -8.62     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.33     4.93     1.12R    0.03  
Newcastle        24   30  -12       2.91    67.22    -2.95    47.05     4.89   -15.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     2.38     2.43R    0.09  
Arsenal          23   29   -2      -6.83    16.43    -7.99    51.78     5.31     0.86     0.00     0.00     0.14     1.74    16.58     0.26R    0.00  
Burnley          23   27  -12       2.76    66.89     0.00    42.99     5.00   -20.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.50    11.74R    0.86  
Brighton         24   25   -7      -0.76    46.48     4.50    39.61     4.73   -14.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    25.32R    2.60  
Aston_Villa      24   25  -14       0.58    54.79     2.46    37.99     4.83   -25.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    42.63R    5.45  
West_Ham         22   23   -8      -4.19    27.29    -2.92    40.50     5.16   -16.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18    22.88R    2.72  
Bournemouth      24   23  -14      -3.83    29.26    -3.29    36.93     4.72   -23.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    50.12R    7.42  
Watford          24   23  -15      -3.39    31.44    -3.91    37.46     4.75   -22.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    45.72R    7.27  
Norwich          23   17  -22      -3.41    31.20    -1.45    29.34     4.74   -37.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.71R   73.45  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 January 2020, Barnsley 0 3 Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       28   53  +19       3.46    66.27     1.86    84.84     5.98    30.29    46.33    72.44    97.63    80.23P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    28   52  +19       5.11    74.05     6.50    83.02     5.87    28.55    31.37    61.12    96.36    71.52P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          28   48  +12       3.09    64.65     2.18    75.49     6.15    16.17     4.94    14.41    68.82    28.83P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       28   47  +23      -0.90    45.12     8.76    77.91     5.98    32.25    10.85    27.89    83.54    46.13P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   27   47  +11       6.55    80.34     5.81    74.76     6.18    13.61     3.83    11.87    64.30    23.36P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         29   46   +8       3.14    65.29     3.31    70.79     5.80    10.12     0.71     3.17    38.56    10.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         28   45   +3       3.91    69.27    -0.98    70.51     6.00     4.44     0.77     3.11    35.23    10.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall        28   44   +4       6.65    80.49     5.19    67.69     5.89     2.69     0.20     1.05    19.74     4.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_City    28   44   +2       3.82    68.29    -0.54    68.69     6.04     1.96     0.33     1.78    25.04     6.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   42   +8       1.10    55.83     4.10    68.79     6.00    11.07     0.38     1.74    27.88     7.75P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       28   40   +5       0.58    53.08     3.58    65.21     6.08     5.79     0.11     0.50    11.98     3.02P    0.07R    0.00  
Hull            28   39   +4      -0.62    47.15     2.38    64.87     6.03     5.70     0.05     0.36    10.90     2.57P    0.10R    0.00  
Cardiff         28   39   -2      -0.76    46.57    -4.05    64.78     6.13    -0.41     0.09     0.39    10.29     2.65P    0.15R    0.00  
QPR             28   38   -5       4.18    70.80     3.01    60.31     6.00    -9.32     0.00     0.03     2.44     0.37P    1.03R    0.02  
Derby           28   37   -7      -2.69    37.17    -9.18    61.04     5.98    -7.89     0.01     0.06     3.06     0.74P    0.61R    0.02  
Reading         27   36   +3       1.56    58.70     6.62    60.61     6.07     0.99     0.01     0.08     3.06     0.68P    0.82R    0.02  
Middlesbrough   29   35   -7      -4.96    26.66    -7.76    58.58     5.68    -6.16     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.20P    1.39R    0.04  
Birmingham      29   34  -11      -0.67    47.37    -3.26    54.10     5.65   -16.05     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    7.88R    0.40  
Charlton        28   29   -4      -5.30    25.53     2.22    52.06     5.99    -6.47     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   13.97R    1.26  
Huddersfield    28   29  -13      -2.98    35.94    -3.61    49.15     5.82   -19.63     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    29.41R    3.66  
Stoke           28   28   -8      -7.60    16.36    -4.11    51.45     5.93    -9.61     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   16.12R    1.57  
Barnsley        29   24  -19      -8.20    15.26    -6.74    43.03     5.68   -26.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.17R   21.81  
Wigan           28   23  -18      -8.02    14.26    -7.46    43.60     5.74   -23.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.84R   18.63  
Luton           28   21  -27      -6.44    20.39    -7.82    39.41     5.82   -38.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.43R   52.55  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 January 2020, Peterborough 4 0 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            26   47  +22       1.05    54.97     5.64    79.28     6.04    34.03    44.33    63.91    92.55    72.71P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              27   47   +3      11.64    93.94     5.50    70.17     5.73     2.87     2.95     8.51    43.59    13.79P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              26   45  +15       2.05    60.24     4.21    75.47     5.90    23.91    17.75    36.24    79.65    48.14P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             25   44  +10       6.89    83.16     5.70    71.11     6.17    11.82     5.56    13.88    51.58    21.51P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   41  +17       0.63    53.00     9.88    70.89     5.86    25.17     4.84    13.52    54.37    23.56P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           25   41  +12      -3.54    30.82    -3.78    73.38     6.12    21.50    10.76    24.67    68.25    39.06P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           25   41   +8      -0.59    46.62    -3.38    70.69     6.19    13.43     4.89    12.62    50.10    22.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         27   40  +13      -3.52    32.24     2.95    67.93     5.73    20.46     1.79     5.49    34.18    13.15P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   39   +4       1.15    56.47    -1.49    67.31     6.12     7.45     1.54     4.71    28.47    10.02P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            24   37  +12      -2.16    38.11     2.77    69.56     6.26    20.18     3.81    10.29    44.70    19.71P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       24   37   +7       0.03    50.31     0.97    66.29     6.41     9.96     1.42     4.32    25.18     9.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         27   37   +3       1.68    59.25     5.39    61.70     5.91     5.08     0.12     0.49     7.08     1.80P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       25   36   -5       3.09    67.14    -3.08    60.15     6.07    -7.82     0.04     0.29     4.43     0.93P    0.07R    0.00  
Gillingham           26   35   +4      -0.54    47.47     3.91    60.42     5.89     5.09     0.06     0.25     4.65     1.16P    0.06R    0.00  
Blackpool            25   34   +3      -1.17    44.02     1.59    61.50     6.04     5.43     0.11     0.58     7.19     2.03P    0.03R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   34   -4       1.39    58.07    -2.10    59.95     5.98    -3.88     0.03     0.22     3.89     0.95P    0.07R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   26   29   -3      -3.26    33.64     2.38    51.52     5.88    -6.54     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    2.42R    0.00  
Rochdale             26   28  -13      -0.84    46.43    -1.58    47.87     5.66   -21.05     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    9.12R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   27   -7      -3.42    32.44     0.76    47.86     5.65   -12.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    7.69R    0.01  
MK_Dons              27   25  -12      -5.96    21.69    -2.99    44.20     5.55   -18.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.19R    0.08  
Tranmere             25   22  -17      -2.49    37.16    -0.52    39.55     5.75   -30.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.47R    0.96  
Southend             26   13  -37     -11.65     3.81   -17.37    29.15     5.40   -53.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.27R   26.86  
Bolton               24    7  -35      -2.06    38.77   -15.37    23.90     5.75   -52.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.58R   72.08  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 January 2020, Colchester 0 0 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          28   53  +18       7.72    83.54     7.78    83.32     5.97    26.39    28.50    70.98    97.50    77.69P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           27   53  +11      10.23    91.12     2.60    83.20     6.15    17.11    27.14    67.08    96.60    74.19P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            27   48  +16       5.92    77.37     8.45    77.33     6.23    20.79     7.04    32.18    83.21    43.82P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         26   47  +16       2.21    60.89     2.22    82.97     6.44    28.65    28.91    68.43    96.14    76.75P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         28   46  +11      -0.09    49.43    -0.15    75.09     5.96    17.41     3.04    19.47    73.47    35.39P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      28   46  +10       2.77    63.48     2.87    71.89     6.00    11.76     1.12     8.79    52.33    18.50P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       28   45  +13      -0.14    49.15     3.23    72.26     5.96    16.87     1.20     9.96    57.06    22.77P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       27   44  +19       3.16    66.14    13.40    73.77     6.12    24.54     2.38    15.79    67.98    28.20P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     28   44   +8       2.03    60.35     2.62    70.67     5.87    11.02     0.59     5.63    44.30    14.77P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        28   41   +2       4.36    71.83     3.97    63.04     5.80    -1.44     0.01     0.32     7.54     1.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   25   36   +3       1.78    59.91     2.57    65.16     6.47     3.90     0.06     1.21    16.07     4.33P    0.01R    0.01  
Walsall          28   36   -9      -2.70    37.16    -9.59    60.28     5.97    -9.26     0.00     0.09     3.04     0.84P    0.06R    0.06  
Salford_City     28   35   -4       3.83    69.52     7.07    55.41     5.87   -10.49     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.05P    0.36R    0.36  
Scunthorpe       28   32   -3      -9.41    12.31    -7.42    59.71     6.10     1.46     0.00     0.06     3.22     0.88P    0.09R    0.09  
Crawley_Town     28   32   -3      -1.96    40.84     3.38    55.05     5.88    -5.69     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.06P    0.56R    0.56  
Macclesfield     27   31   -4       0.86    55.51     5.31    51.19     5.79   -12.28     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    2.16R    2.16  
Cambridge_Utd    28   31   -7      -1.64    42.18     0.92    52.13     5.74   -11.78     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    1.50R    1.50  
Grimsby          26   30   -5      -1.39    43.51     0.22    52.74     6.00   -11.18     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P    1.44R    1.44  
Oldham           28   29  -15      -7.09    18.09   -11.67    51.17     5.84   -18.59     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    2.34R    2.34  
Leyton_Orient    28   28  -11      -2.49    38.33     0.93    47.68     5.78   -18.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     8.18R    8.18  
Mansfield        28   27   -8     -13.49     4.16   -11.14    53.19     6.04    -5.78     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P    1.37R    1.37  
Carlisle         27   26  -20      -5.49    23.59   -11.64    49.55     6.09   -23.62     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    5.79R    5.79  
Stevenage        28   22  -12     -12.61     4.25    -7.38    44.50     5.76   -14.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.21R   18.21  
Morecambe        28   22  -26      -4.98    24.95    -8.55    39.83     5.55   -36.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.94R   57.94  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2020, AFC_Fylde 2 3 Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             29   58  +29       8.51    85.09    14.31    85.46     5.82    35.25    62.31    97.69    70.95P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     31   55  +12       6.03    75.95     2.27    77.48     5.48    14.79     8.35    73.61    21.68P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             31   53  +18      -2.21    39.51    -1.40    79.70     5.39    27.43    17.14    87.17    39.82P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            31   50  +11       3.36    65.03     4.96    73.66     5.52    15.66     2.09    49.39    11.36P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       30   48  +13       3.59    66.89     8.22    72.16     5.62    16.35     1.51    39.17     9.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County       30   47  +15      -5.91    23.85    -2.67    75.45     5.62    24.84     5.42    65.04    25.00P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            30   46   +0       6.73    79.66     2.64    67.73     5.59    -0.20     0.17    12.80     2.24P    0.04R    0.00  
Stockport          31   46   -2       7.58    81.13     4.69    63.57     5.47    -6.82     0.04     3.50     0.55P    0.42R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     29   45  +12      -1.07    44.74     2.65    73.35     5.84    19.47     2.74    49.06    14.59P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             30   44   -5       8.38    83.84     3.91    62.45     5.57   -10.71     0.02     2.49     0.39P    0.93R    0.00  
Hartlepool         31   41   +1      -0.87    46.59     2.37    62.04     5.38     1.65     0.01     2.01     0.37P    0.77R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     29   41   -2       1.06    55.48    -2.18    63.31     5.81    -3.46     0.03     3.58     0.69P    0.74R    0.01  
Torquay            31   41   -5       3.59    66.66     4.42    59.18     5.45    -9.26     0.00     0.61     0.08P    3.31R    0.03  
Barnet             28   40   +6      -2.23    39.27     0.24    66.23     6.04     8.29     0.15    11.18     2.65P    0.17R    0.00  
Sutton_United      31   40   +3      -2.81    37.40     2.59    61.58     5.43     4.54     0.00     1.65     0.36P    0.88R    0.01  
Aldershot          30   38   -6       2.13    61.05     1.78    56.88     5.44   -10.52     0.00     0.22     0.04P    7.75R    0.09  
Eastleigh          29   37   -6      -0.04    50.40    -1.42    58.66     5.78    -8.72     0.00     0.63     0.10P    4.93R    0.08  
Wrexham            31   35   -3      -9.91    11.89    -6.69    55.22     5.33    -3.42     0.00     0.06     0.01P   10.32R    0.18  
Maidenhead         31   35  -11       0.63    53.95     1.83    52.87     5.34   -15.38     0.00     0.01     0.00P   24.37R    0.91  
Dag_&_Red          30   33   -7      -6.06    23.21    -4.09    52.48     5.46   -10.50     0.00     0.02     0.00P   25.01R    0.78  
Chesterfield       31   33  -12      -7.70    18.35    -8.96    52.73     5.37   -13.46     0.00     0.01     0.01P   24.44R    1.10  
AFC_Fylde          29   30  -12     -10.50     9.75   -12.93    54.37     5.86   -10.56     0.00     0.09     0.03P   17.74R    0.71  
Ebbsfleet_United   30   25  -22     -10.90     8.81   -13.18    44.73     5.58   -25.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.84R   16.79  
Chorley            31   25  -27      -2.54    38.80    -3.36    37.96     4.92   -39.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.33R   79.29