Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 20 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 19 January 2020, Burnley 2 1 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        22   64  +38      14.66    99.83     5.99   101.16     4.60    64.39    99.70   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         23   48  +37      -5.97    15.02    -3.54    82.23     4.52    62.16     0.30    94.47    99.73    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        23   45  +25       6.32    82.20    14.35    70.68     5.35    32.72     0.00     5.10    76.92    93.28    99.32     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          23   39   +9      -1.20    42.28    -3.93    63.76     5.30    15.27     0.00     0.36    15.34    56.40    89.64     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   34   +9      -4.46    25.53    -1.15    59.74     5.28    16.72     0.00     0.05     4.85    25.91    73.15     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    23   34   +4       2.90    66.88     5.60    54.61     5.25     3.93     0.00     0.00     0.64     5.10    31.72     0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        23   33   +3       4.94    76.98     8.65    52.10     5.24     0.89     0.00     0.00     0.25     2.12    16.85     0.10R    0.00  
Tottenham        23   31   +5      -8.66    10.07    -7.05    57.34     5.33    13.77     0.00     0.02     2.05    14.16    56.20     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   23   30   -4       1.27    58.12     0.71    49.32     5.19    -5.95     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.59     6.85     0.65R    0.01  
Arsenal          23   29   -2      -6.66    16.91    -7.80    51.67     5.27     0.71     0.00     0.00     0.15     1.75    15.11     0.23R    0.01  
Everton          23   29   -7      -1.19    43.55    -3.90    48.94     5.24    -8.11     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.49     6.32     0.95R    0.04  
Newcastle        23   29  -12       3.17    69.07    -3.23    47.02     5.08   -16.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12     2.66     2.40R    0.09  
Southampton      23   28  -13       3.81    72.37    -0.01    45.10     5.12   -19.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.20     5.56R    0.27  
Burnley          23   27  -12       2.59    66.16    -0.28    43.05     4.97   -20.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.52    10.24R    0.68  
Brighton         23   25   -5       0.05    51.25     5.57    41.11     5.04   -11.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21    16.09R    1.53  
West_Ham         22   23   -8      -4.06    27.79    -2.75    40.46     5.16   -16.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.18    21.33R    2.29  
Watford          23   23  -14      -2.24    37.68    -3.29    38.90     5.01   -21.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    32.18R    4.28  
Aston_Villa      23   22  -15      -0.68    47.38     2.16    36.27     5.01   -26.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    54.48R    9.86  
Bournemouth      23   20  -16      -4.79    24.00    -4.29    35.12     4.92   -26.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.80R   13.70  
Norwich          23   17  -22      -3.59    29.97    -1.80    29.44     4.75   -37.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.96R   67.25  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 20 January 2020, West_Brom 0 1 Stoke; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       28   53  +19       3.52    66.79     1.95    84.90     5.99    30.43    46.80    72.58    97.84    80.55P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    28   52  +19       5.12    73.96     6.49    82.98     5.89    28.50    30.95    61.10    96.29    71.60P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          28   48  +12       3.21    65.28     2.38    75.56     6.11    16.25     4.98    14.96    70.75    29.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Brentford       28   47  +23      -0.95    44.86     8.61    78.01     5.95    32.38    11.00    28.39    84.92    47.10P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   27   47  +11       6.61    80.41     5.87    74.77     6.16    13.59     3.93    12.21    65.05    23.88P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         28   45   +3       3.82    68.60    -1.11    70.61     5.97     4.60     0.72     2.96    37.05    10.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall        28   44   +4       6.65    80.28     5.23    67.60     5.95     2.57     0.25     1.06    20.58     4.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_City    28   44   +2       3.82    68.92    -0.49    68.76     6.03     2.07     0.37     1.77    26.31     6.84P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston         28   43   +5       2.61    63.12     1.95    68.73     6.05     6.48     0.41     1.81    27.57     7.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   42   +8       1.29    56.75     4.35    68.68     6.01    10.91     0.38     1.73    28.22     7.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       28   40   +5       0.71    53.75     3.81    65.07     6.04     5.56     0.08     0.50    12.40     2.90P    0.09R    0.00  
Hull            28   39   +4      -0.65    47.12     2.29    64.80     6.02     5.57     0.05     0.36    11.40     2.60P    0.14R    0.00  
Cardiff         28   39   -2      -0.65    47.22    -3.86    64.73     6.13    -0.47     0.07     0.39    10.69     2.77P    0.17R    0.00  
QPR             28   38   -5       4.16    70.62     3.01    60.21     5.97    -9.47     0.00     0.04     2.44     0.39P    1.35R    0.05  
Derby           28   37   -7      -2.65    37.00    -9.07    61.06     5.96    -7.90     0.00     0.05     3.13     0.75P    0.75R    0.01  
Reading         27   36   +3       1.42    57.90     6.42    60.66     6.07     1.05     0.00     0.07     3.39     0.74P    0.90R    0.02  
Middlesbrough   28   34   -7      -4.55    28.21    -7.70    59.48     5.89    -5.41     0.00     0.02     1.67     0.42P    1.42R    0.03  
Birmingham      28   33  -11      -0.54    47.78    -3.53    54.05     5.84   -16.62     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P    9.77R    0.54  
Charlton        28   29   -4      -5.38    25.53     2.09    52.04     5.95    -6.47     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.03P   15.33R    1.46  
Huddersfield    28   29  -13      -3.03    35.71    -3.70    49.20     5.82   -19.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   31.77R    4.13  
Stoke           28   28   -8      -7.66    15.92    -4.16    51.47     5.90    -9.64     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   17.68R    1.76  
Barnsley        28   24  -16      -7.79    16.32    -5.30    44.74     5.97   -22.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.22R   16.13  
Wigan           28   23  -18      -8.12    13.88    -7.55    43.67     5.75   -23.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.22R   20.30  
Luton           28   21  -27      -6.50    19.94    -7.98    39.44     5.81   -37.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.13R   55.56  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2020, AFC_Wimbledon 1 0 Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            26   47  +22       1.08    55.19     5.69    79.33     6.04    34.08    43.58    63.40    92.68    72.14P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              26   47   +7      11.64    94.22     7.24    71.72     5.90     7.13     5.33    13.58    54.72    20.16P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              26   45  +15       1.81    58.98     3.81    75.69     5.95    24.24    18.25    37.15    80.45    49.44P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             25   44  +10       6.93    83.29     5.73    71.09     6.14    11.77     5.21    13.15    51.44    20.80P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   41  +17       0.62    53.08     9.87    70.85     5.88    25.06     4.73    13.37    54.00    23.58P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           25   41  +12      -3.49    30.98    -3.71    73.37     6.12    21.56    10.30    23.77    68.09    38.24P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           25   41   +8      -0.56    46.64    -3.31    70.76     6.18    13.59     4.83    12.47    50.43    22.54P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   39   +4       1.13    56.20    -1.47    67.25     6.18     7.37     1.50     4.57    28.26     9.87P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            24   37  +12      -1.99    38.96     3.01    69.45     6.23    20.01     3.71     9.69    44.22    19.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         26   37   +9      -3.53    32.13     1.48    66.12     5.96    16.03     0.90     3.29    24.22     8.56P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       24   37   +7       0.12    50.71     1.11    66.19     6.37     9.82     1.27     3.90    24.49     8.72P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         27   37   +3       1.64    59.00     5.34    61.62     5.89     4.94     0.09     0.42     6.77     1.61P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       25   36   -5       3.22    67.76    -2.92    60.06     6.07    -7.90     0.08     0.27     4.33     0.99P    0.07R    0.00  
Gillingham           26   35   +4      -0.50    47.74     3.93    60.28     5.91     4.92     0.05     0.22     4.44     1.13P    0.05R    0.00  
Blackpool            25   34   +3      -1.28    43.59     1.47    61.57     6.05     5.57     0.11     0.52     7.45     2.14P    0.05R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   34   -4       1.26    57.46    -2.28    60.01     5.97    -3.79     0.05     0.22     3.86     0.92P    0.09R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   26   29   -3      -3.44    32.67     2.06    51.60     5.88    -6.40     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    2.31R    0.00  
Rochdale             26   28  -13      -0.85    46.44    -1.63    47.92     5.71   -20.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    9.05R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   27   -7      -3.63    31.47     0.38    47.96     5.66   -12.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     7.44R    0.01  
MK_Dons              27   25  -12      -5.74    22.63    -2.67    44.11     5.51   -18.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   21.74R    0.08  
Tranmere             25   22  -17      -2.57    36.51    -0.77    39.60     5.81   -30.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.31R    0.81  
Southend             26   13  -37     -11.40     4.19   -16.95    28.98     5.37   -53.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.33R   27.58  
Bolton               24    7  -35      -2.04    39.19   -15.40    23.89     5.74   -52.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.55R   71.51  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2020, Bradford 2 2 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          28   53  +18       7.69    83.14     7.73    83.38     6.03    26.48    28.18    69.42    97.16    76.46P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           27   53  +11      10.27    90.82     2.65    83.17     6.16    17.08    25.90    64.94    96.16    72.48P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            26   47  +16       6.58    80.31     8.92    78.00     6.44    21.25     8.33    35.00    84.33    45.85P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         26   47  +16       2.21    60.99     2.22    82.96     6.46    28.65    27.85    66.98    95.86    75.94P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         27   45  +11       0.30    51.29    -0.10    75.32     6.21    17.24     3.43    19.97    72.63    35.41P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      27   45  +10       3.27    66.22     3.07    72.68     6.25    12.37     1.60    10.74    55.99    21.01P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       27   44  +19       3.16    65.89    13.45    73.78     6.15    24.52     2.40    14.88    66.69    27.36P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       27   44  +13       0.28    51.16     3.29    72.69     6.18    16.96     1.68    11.30    57.94    23.77P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     28   44   +8       2.05    60.55     2.68    70.67     5.91    11.00     0.54     5.28    42.94    14.27P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        28   41   +2       4.21    70.99     3.79    63.10     5.80    -1.37     0.01     0.29     7.40     1.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   25   36   +3       1.82    60.06     2.70    65.13     6.45     3.84     0.07     1.05    15.09     3.91P    0.00R    0.00  
Walsall          28   36   -9      -2.43    38.41    -9.26    60.14     5.99    -9.44     0.00     0.07     2.94     0.76P    0.04R    0.04  
Salford_City     28   35   -4       3.66    68.92     6.78    55.49     5.88   -10.38     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.06P    0.40R    0.40  
Scunthorpe       28   32   -3      -9.49    11.92    -7.52    59.74     6.12     1.49     0.00     0.06     3.20     0.91P    0.09R    0.09  
Crawley_Town     28   32   -3      -1.99    40.53     3.34    55.11     5.90    -5.61     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.08P    0.57R    0.57  
Cambridge_Utd    28   31   -7      -1.60    42.54     0.93    52.15     5.77   -11.77     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    1.47R    1.47  
Macclesfield     26   30   -4       0.91    56.01     4.87    51.31     5.99   -12.72     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P    2.38R    2.38  
Grimsby          26   30   -5      -1.39    43.09     0.21    52.77     5.96   -11.15     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    1.36R    1.36  
Oldham           28   29  -15      -7.19    17.77   -11.82    51.21     5.86   -18.58     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    2.17R    2.17  
Mansfield        28   27   -8     -13.56     3.83   -11.18    53.19     6.00    -5.78     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.07P    1.28R    1.28  
Leyton_Orient    27   27  -11      -2.32    39.09     0.75    47.67     6.03   -19.47     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    8.71R    8.71  
Carlisle         27   26  -20      -5.59    23.24   -11.70    49.57     6.10   -23.64     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    5.77R    5.77  
Stevenage        28   22  -12     -12.51     4.22    -7.18    44.46     5.81   -14.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.37R   18.37  
Morecambe        28   22  -26      -5.01    25.01    -8.61    39.86     5.59   -36.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.38R   57.38  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2020, AFC_Fylde 2 3 Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             29   58  +29       8.48    85.06    14.31    85.49     5.84    35.32    62.55    97.83    71.42P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     31   55  +12       5.88    75.28     2.05    77.55     5.47    14.88     8.63    74.52    22.49P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             31   53  +18      -2.05    40.13    -1.12    79.61     5.43    27.24    16.70    86.87    38.99P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            31   50  +11       3.57    66.22     5.34    73.52     5.51    15.45     2.05    48.57    11.09P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       30   48  +13       3.83    68.25     8.52    72.05     5.62    16.19     1.50    38.58     9.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County       30   47  +15      -5.81    24.60    -2.54    75.39     5.65    24.78     5.42    64.95    24.90P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            30   46   +0       6.67    79.38     2.50    67.76     5.59    -0.17     0.18    13.12     2.24P    0.05R    0.00  
Stockport          31   46   -2       7.69    81.45     4.93    63.47     5.47    -6.99     0.02     3.39     0.51P    0.44R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     29   45  +12      -0.97    45.26     2.80    73.33     5.84    19.41     2.69    49.25    14.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Woking             30   44   -5       8.35    83.71     3.89    62.40     5.60   -10.76     0.02     2.45     0.35P    0.98R    0.00  
Hartlepool         31   41   +1      -0.93    46.02     2.28    62.07     5.39     1.69     0.00     2.08     0.40P    0.79R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     29   41   -2       1.06    55.53    -2.20    63.30     5.80    -3.50     0.04     3.68     0.71P    0.74R    0.00  
Torquay            31   41   -5       3.59    66.49     4.49    59.16     5.47    -9.29     0.00     0.68     0.08P    3.35R    0.03  
Barnet             28   40   +6      -2.08    39.84     0.45    66.20     6.04     8.23     0.19    11.30     2.61P    0.18R    0.00  
Sutton_United      31   40   +3      -2.66    38.04     2.74    61.48     5.45     4.41     0.01     1.67     0.32P    1.01R    0.01  
Aldershot          30   38   -6       2.10    60.80     1.71    56.92     5.48   -10.45     0.00     0.22     0.04P    7.74R    0.10  
Eastleigh          29   37   -6      -0.33    49.20    -1.87    58.77     5.78    -8.54     0.00     0.63     0.11P    4.72R    0.09  
Wrexham            31   35   -3     -10.08    11.23    -6.95    55.31     5.32    -3.29     0.00     0.08     0.02P   10.06R    0.19  
Maidenhead         31   35  -11       0.69    54.51     1.91    52.84     5.31   -15.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.71R    0.88  
Dag_&_Red          30   33   -7      -6.26    22.29    -4.31    52.56     5.43   -10.38     0.00     0.02     0.01P   24.99R    0.77  
Chesterfield       31   33  -12      -7.85    17.71    -9.14    52.80     5.38   -13.38     0.00     0.01     0.00    24.56R    1.01  
AFC_Fylde          29   30  -12     -10.60     9.49   -13.09    54.38     5.90   -10.52     0.00     0.08     0.02P   17.85R    0.86  
Ebbsfleet_United   30   25  -22     -10.99     8.56   -13.38    44.84     5.59   -25.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.52R   16.66  
Chorley            31   25  -27      -2.48    38.96    -3.30    38.00     4.93   -39.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.31R   79.38