Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 18 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2020, Arsenal 1 1 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        21   61  +36      13.95    99.79     5.37   100.24     4.82    63.50    99.45   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         23   48  +37      -5.84    15.68    -3.26    82.09     4.56    61.95     0.55    90.17    99.59    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   45  +26       7.74    88.02    15.40    72.80     5.53    34.89     0.01     9.45    83.46    95.75    99.72     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          23   39   +9      -1.13    43.04    -3.84    63.73     5.31    15.22     0.00     0.30    10.53    52.91    89.20     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   34  +11      -4.02    27.35    -0.66    60.65     5.43    17.92     0.00     0.08     4.46    29.79    77.14     0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    23   34   +4       2.82    66.17     5.43    54.64     5.30     3.93     0.00     0.00     0.42     4.73    31.04     0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        23   33   +3       5.08    77.59     8.81    52.04     5.26     0.78     0.00     0.00     0.13     1.84    16.06     0.07R    0.00  
Tottenham        23   31   +5      -8.66    10.29    -7.09    57.29     5.35    13.73     0.00     0.01     1.28    12.47    54.90     0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   23   30   -4       1.11    57.28     0.49    49.37     5.21    -5.86     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.54     6.75     0.58R    0.01  
Arsenal          23   29   -2      -6.65    17.20    -7.78    51.73     5.30     0.80     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.38    15.03     0.19R    0.01  
Everton          23   29   -7      -1.20    43.56    -3.98    48.90     5.25    -8.13     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.48     6.08     0.73R    0.03  
Newcastle        23   29  -12       3.13    68.74    -3.26    47.14     5.09   -16.02     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10     2.39     2.05R    0.09  
Southampton      23   28  -13       3.76    72.06    -0.09    45.11     5.13   -19.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.05     5.22R    0.24  
Brighton         23   25   -5       0.06    51.36     5.54    41.07     5.03   -11.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20    15.18R    1.28  
Burnley          22   24  -13       0.94    56.85    -1.32    40.64     5.18   -22.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.19    20.77R    2.34  
West_Ham         22   23   -8      -4.09    27.64    -2.80    40.54     5.21   -16.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17    19.46R    2.23  
Watford          23   23  -14      -2.25    37.62    -3.30    38.95     5.00   -21.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    30.01R    3.96  
Aston_Villa      23   22  -15      -0.69    47.03     2.20    36.20     5.04   -26.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    52.54R    9.87  
Bournemouth      23   20  -16      -4.82    24.01    -4.34    35.12     4.92   -26.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    60.81R   13.20  
Norwich          23   17  -22      -3.49    30.33    -1.54    29.38     4.74   -37.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.37R   66.75  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2020, Birmingham 1 1 Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       27   53  +20       4.82    72.85     2.75    87.34     6.17    33.15    59.84    82.51    99.04    87.84P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    28   52  +19       5.17    74.04     6.60    83.02     5.85    28.51    24.01    59.83    96.64    70.89P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          28   48  +12       3.23    65.20     2.41    75.35     6.10    16.00     3.60    12.85    69.96    27.56P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       28   47  +23      -1.01    44.62     8.53    78.04     5.96    32.46     8.51    26.38    85.31    46.28P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         28   45   +3       3.79    68.58    -1.16    70.65     5.94     4.66     0.61     2.79    37.64    10.34P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   44   +9       5.92    78.39     5.31    73.68     6.35    12.46     2.25     8.79    58.70    19.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall        28   44   +4       6.65    80.56     5.25    67.66     5.93     2.63     0.18     0.93    21.22     4.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_City    28   44   +2       3.75    68.38    -0.63    68.85     6.05     2.19     0.27     1.55    27.58     6.68P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         28   43   +5       2.65    63.39     2.03    68.68     6.03     6.38     0.28     1.52    27.78     7.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   42   +8       1.22    56.55     4.28    68.70     6.04    10.93     0.26     1.57    29.00     7.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       28   40   +5       0.58    53.09     3.64    65.15     6.05     5.70     0.05     0.43    12.86     3.02P    0.09R    0.00  
Hull            28   39   +4      -0.62    47.21     2.35    64.85     6.03     5.61     0.05     0.36    11.91     2.84P    0.11R    0.00  
Cardiff         28   39   -2      -0.88    45.92    -4.21    64.87     6.14    -0.27     0.05     0.31    11.32     2.85P    0.15R    0.01  
QPR             28   38   -5       4.11    70.47     2.94    60.24     5.99    -9.44     0.01     0.03     2.53     0.42P    1.08R    0.04  
Derby           28   37   -7      -2.50    37.68    -8.87    60.90     5.96    -8.09     0.00     0.05     3.09     0.73P    0.64R    0.03  
Reading         27   36   +3       1.49    58.36     6.58    60.59     6.10     0.94     0.01     0.07     3.45     0.75P    0.88R    0.03  
Middlesbrough   28   34   -7      -4.45    28.36    -7.57    59.44     5.90    -5.49     0.00     0.01     1.69     0.38P    1.31R    0.06  
Birmingham      28   33  -11      -0.48    48.09    -3.46    54.04     5.80   -16.69     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P    8.95R    0.64  
Charlton        28   29   -4      -5.06    26.80     2.66    51.87     5.94    -6.77     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   15.00R    1.75  
Huddersfield    28   29  -13      -2.93    36.05    -3.55    49.15     5.81   -19.63     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    30.21R    4.56  
Stoke           27   25   -9      -9.29    10.90    -5.15    48.79     6.08   -12.33     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   30.45R    5.41  
Barnsley        28   24  -16      -7.92    15.60    -5.47    44.82     5.95   -22.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.46R   17.08  
Wigan           28   23  -18      -8.13    13.88    -7.58    43.66     5.74   -23.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.51R   21.75  
Luton           27   21  -25      -6.13    21.36    -7.69    40.47     5.97   -36.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.13R   48.64  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2020, AFC_Wimbledon 1 0 Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            26   47  +22       1.16    55.54     5.83    79.22     6.02    33.92    43.21    62.86    92.31    71.81P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              26   47   +7      11.63    94.10     7.27    71.72     5.92     7.11     5.13    13.48    54.07    20.04P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              26   45  +15       1.88    59.39     3.97    75.59     5.89    24.11    17.69    36.37    79.98    48.65P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             25   44  +10       6.83    83.11     5.64    71.18     6.11    11.92     5.28    13.38    51.69    20.99P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   41  +17       0.64    53.47     9.91    70.80     5.90    25.06     4.58    13.10    53.82    23.35P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           25   41  +12      -3.60    30.47    -3.93    73.55     6.14    21.75    11.04    24.73    68.91    39.16P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           25   41   +8      -0.54    47.07    -3.28    70.73     6.16    13.52     4.82    12.13    50.07    21.94P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   39   +4       1.29    57.17    -1.24    67.16     6.18     7.21     1.48     4.37    27.86     9.63P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            24   37  +12      -2.19    38.10     2.71    69.61     6.27    20.25     4.01    10.35    44.72    19.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         26   37   +9      -3.63    32.17     1.35    66.14     6.02    16.05     1.05     3.36    24.39     8.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       24   37   +7       0.03    50.13     0.93    66.33     6.38    10.03     1.33     4.09    25.05     9.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         27   37   +3       1.59    58.80     5.27    61.65     5.94     4.97     0.10     0.50     7.00     1.86P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       25   36   -5       3.23    67.89    -2.90    60.07     6.03    -7.92     0.04     0.21     4.09     0.85P    0.06R    0.00  
Gillingham           26   35   +4      -0.48    48.08     3.97    60.35     5.86     5.01     0.05     0.24     4.45     1.09P    0.05R    0.00  
Blackpool            25   34   +3      -1.24    43.63     1.48    61.53     6.07     5.55     0.14     0.59     7.53     2.14P    0.03R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   34   -4       1.29    57.76    -2.22    59.94     6.02    -3.90     0.05     0.23     3.89     0.91P    0.09R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   26   29   -3      -3.35    32.97     2.24    51.50     5.84    -6.52     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    2.41R    0.00  
Rochdale             26   28  -13      -0.76    47.06    -1.54    47.87     5.71   -21.05     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    8.97R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   27   -7      -3.53    31.90     0.49    47.86     5.68   -12.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    7.59R    0.01  
MK_Dons              27   25  -12      -5.86    22.25    -2.86    44.17     5.53   -18.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.53R    0.07  
Tranmere             25   22  -17      -2.45    37.31    -0.58    39.55     5.78   -30.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.19R    0.86  
Southend             26   13  -37     -11.40     4.46   -16.93    28.99     5.39   -53.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.46R   27.88  
Bolton               24    7  -35      -2.12    38.58   -15.59    23.95     5.74   -52.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.56R   71.17  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2020, Bradford 2 2 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          28   53  +18       7.73    83.58     7.82    83.26     6.02    26.36    27.33    68.71    97.21    75.64P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           27   53  +11      10.21    90.84     2.60    83.19     6.16    17.08    25.93    65.07    96.31    72.66P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            26   47  +16       6.51    80.25     8.76    78.11     6.40    21.39     8.82    35.27    84.85    46.54P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         26   47  +16       2.25    61.16     2.28    82.96     6.40    28.61    27.97    66.76    95.89    75.72P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         27   45  +11       0.29    51.37    -0.13    75.34     6.22    17.24     3.51    19.98    72.74    35.37P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      27   45  +10       3.09    65.33     2.79    72.77     6.23    12.54     1.70    10.71    56.56    21.17P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       27   44  +19       3.05    65.22    13.26    73.81     6.14    24.62     2.36    15.16    66.68    27.35P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       27   44  +13       0.18    50.75     3.15    72.75     6.23    17.04     1.76    11.70    58.12    24.32P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     28   44   +8       2.15    60.97     2.78    70.67     5.88    10.98     0.51     5.19    42.50    14.02P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        28   41   +2       4.41    71.94     4.11    62.95     5.79    -1.57     0.01     0.26     6.94     1.43P    0.01R    0.01  
Newport_County   25   36   +3       1.83    60.36     2.66    65.09     6.44     3.78     0.08     1.05    14.65     3.91P    0.01R    0.01  
Walsall          28   36   -9      -2.50    38.40    -9.30    60.19     5.99    -9.39     0.00     0.08     2.92     0.73P    0.04R    0.04  
Salford_City     28   35   -4       3.56    68.39     6.65    55.56     5.89   -10.25     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.11P    0.43R    0.43  
Scunthorpe       28   32   -3      -9.51    12.18    -7.57    59.76     6.14     1.56     0.00     0.04     3.04     0.83P    0.09R    0.09  
Crawley_Town     28   32   -3      -2.00    40.61     3.34    55.10     5.89    -5.62     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.07P    0.50R    0.50  
Cambridge_Utd    28   31   -7      -1.64    42.30     0.94    52.18     5.75   -11.78     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    1.39R    1.39  
Macclesfield     26   30   -4       1.14    57.50     5.16    51.15     6.01   -12.97     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    2.58R    2.58  
Grimsby          26   30   -5      -1.47    42.91     0.08    52.81     5.99   -11.06     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    1.27R    1.27  
Oldham           28   29  -15      -7.16    17.96   -11.78    51.27     5.87   -18.48     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P    2.21R    2.21  
Mansfield        28   27   -8     -13.59     4.02   -11.23    53.18     6.04    -5.79     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.05P    1.38R    1.38  
Leyton_Orient    27   27  -11      -2.18    39.87     0.94    47.68     6.00   -19.54     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    8.56R    8.56  
Carlisle         27   26  -20      -5.45    23.75   -11.52    49.44     6.08   -23.78     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    5.69R    5.69  
Stevenage        28   22  -12     -12.59     4.29    -7.29    44.47     5.78   -14.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.27R   18.27  
Morecambe        28   22  -26      -4.99    25.02    -8.51    39.82     5.56   -36.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.56R   57.56  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 January 2020, AFC_Fylde 2 3 Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             29   58  +29       8.44    84.99    14.26    85.45     5.82    35.27    62.56    97.73    71.20P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     31   55  +12       5.75    74.56     1.82    77.56     5.49    14.91     8.86    74.60    22.51P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             31   53  +18      -1.93    40.60    -0.95    79.50     5.41    27.09    16.38    86.68    38.71P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            31   50  +11       3.53    66.14     5.24    73.61     5.53    15.58     2.22    49.40    11.63P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       30   48  +13       3.73    67.64     8.37    72.09     5.62    16.25     1.49    38.78     8.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County       30   47  +15      -5.79    24.33    -2.52    75.35     5.62    24.71     5.49    64.81    25.02P    0.00     0.00  
Halifax            30   46   +0       6.80    80.14     2.68    67.72     5.58    -0.22     0.17    12.89     2.26P    0.04R    0.00  
Stockport          31   46   -2       7.53    80.84     4.66    63.56     5.45    -6.85     0.04     3.49     0.54P    0.39R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     29   45  +12      -0.85    45.72     2.96    73.26     5.81    19.32     2.51    48.77    14.43P    0.00     0.00  
Woking             30   44   -5       8.37    83.94     3.86    62.41     5.59   -10.70     0.02     2.50     0.33P    1.07R    0.00  
Hartlepool         31   41   +1      -0.93    46.15     2.28    62.06     5.36     1.68     0.00     1.98     0.36P    0.80R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     29   41   -2       1.05    55.66    -2.20    63.32     5.82    -3.46     0.04     3.83     0.78P    0.70R    0.00  
Torquay            31   41   -5       3.66    66.92     4.46    59.18     5.48    -9.29     0.00     0.73     0.10P    3.26R    0.03  
Barnet             28   40   +6      -2.23    39.09     0.22    66.22     5.98     8.27     0.22    11.08     2.64P    0.18R    0.00  
Sutton_United      31   40   +3      -2.96    36.42     2.35    61.65     5.43     4.65     0.00     1.73     0.33P    0.90R    0.01  
Aldershot          30   38   -6       1.96    60.37     1.55    56.95     5.46   -10.39     0.00     0.23     0.03P    7.63R    0.10  
Eastleigh          29   37   -6      -0.19    49.88    -1.63    58.74     5.74    -8.59     0.00     0.53     0.09P    4.66R    0.10  
Wrexham            31   35   -3      -9.93    11.60    -6.69    55.27     5.34    -3.37     0.00     0.09     0.02P   10.38R    0.19  
Maidenhead         31   35  -11       0.71    54.42     1.99    52.85     5.32   -15.44     0.00     0.02     0.00P   24.84R    1.00  
Dag_&_Red          30   33   -7      -6.34    22.12    -4.44    52.59     5.42   -10.36     0.00     0.01     0.00P   24.48R    0.80  
Chesterfield       31   33  -12      -7.81    17.91    -9.09    52.80     5.36   -13.38     0.00     0.01     0.00P   24.35R    1.07  
AFC_Fylde          29   30  -12     -10.59     9.61   -13.03    54.37     5.93   -10.51     0.00     0.08     0.01P   18.33R    0.79  
Ebbsfleet_United   30   25  -22     -10.81     9.15   -13.10    44.76     5.59   -25.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.70R   16.71  
Chorley            31   25  -27      -2.34    39.84    -3.04    37.95     4.94   -39.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.31R   79.19