Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 17 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 January 2020, Aston_Villa 1 6 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        21   61  +36      13.98    99.78     5.36   100.17     4.82    63.44    98.86    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   47  +37      -4.75    19.20    -2.33    83.86     4.65    64.54     1.12    93.11    99.62    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   45  +26       7.75    88.01    15.39    72.80     5.56    34.94     0.01     6.36    77.25    94.35    99.64     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   39  +10       0.02    49.53    -3.32    65.99     5.50    17.64     0.00     0.50    17.08    63.71    93.83     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   34  +11      -3.93    27.37    -0.59    60.53     5.41    17.74     0.00     0.03     3.76    22.45    75.63     0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        22   32   +3       5.31    78.97     8.66    51.80     5.50    -0.17     0.00     0.00     0.13     1.44    14.93     0.16R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    22   31   +3       1.67    60.32     5.16    52.94     5.45     2.85     0.00     0.00     0.19     2.09    20.06     0.10R    0.00  
Tottenham        22   30   +5      -8.06    11.15    -6.92    58.47     5.52    14.99     0.00     0.01     1.79    13.56    61.92     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   22   29   -4       1.14    57.39    -0.47    48.37     5.31    -8.33     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.26     4.70     1.22R    0.02  
Arsenal          22   28   -2      -6.02    18.98    -7.41    52.53     5.48     1.41     0.00     0.00     0.13     1.64    17.99     0.20R    0.00  
Everton          22   28   -7      -0.90    45.07    -3.97    49.37     5.50    -8.06     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.41     7.12     0.94R    0.02  
Southampton      22   28  -12       4.70    77.32     0.10    46.59     5.34   -18.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     2.25     3.51R    0.10  
Newcastle        22   26  -13       1.50    60.06    -4.07    44.77     5.30   -18.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.09     6.63R    0.25  
Brighton         22   24   -5       0.51    54.08     5.76    41.88     5.25   -11.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.34    13.87R    0.91  
Burnley          22   24  -13       0.89    56.94    -1.30    40.69     5.17   -22.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16    21.50R    1.64  
West_Ham         21   22   -8      -3.73    28.95    -2.74    40.76     5.41   -17.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.21    20.54R    1.74  
Watford          22   22  -14      -2.22    37.26    -3.64    38.69     5.20   -22.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    34.41R    3.52  
Aston_Villa      22   21  -15      -0.52    47.85     2.03    36.36     5.25   -26.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    52.90R    7.53  
Bournemouth      22   20  -15      -3.67    29.18    -3.59    36.81     5.20   -24.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    48.61R    7.13  
Norwich          22   14  -23      -5.07    21.26    -2.10    27.55     4.96   -39.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.40R   77.14  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 17 January 2020, Fulham 1 0 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       27   53  +20       4.97    73.57     2.95    87.29     6.14    33.09    51.70    79.40    98.97    85.50P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    27   52  +20       6.30    78.92     7.16    85.09     6.10    30.69    33.07    67.96    98.07    76.88P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          28   48  +12       3.06    64.71     2.15    75.65     6.11    16.38     3.04    11.19    71.64    26.38P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       27   46  +23      -0.40    47.63     8.79    78.78     6.20    33.01     8.86    26.22    87.19    46.40P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   44   +9       5.93    78.13     5.32    73.56     6.37    12.23     1.79     6.86    57.94    17.80P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   42  +13       1.39    57.40     7.46    71.42     6.19    17.92     0.71     3.52    47.13    14.37P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         27   42   +2       2.65    63.27    -1.44    69.49     6.20     4.32     0.31     1.56    31.35     8.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall        27   41   +2       5.80    77.82     4.39    65.84     6.11     0.35     0.07     0.41    14.68     2.97P    0.06R    0.00  
Bristol_City    27   41   +1       2.75    64.14    -0.62    67.61     6.24     1.78     0.14     0.86    22.52     5.24P    0.05R    0.00  
Preston         27   40   +4       1.41    57.34     1.58    67.40     6.22     5.87     0.14     0.78    22.19     5.26P    0.05R    0.00  
Hull            27   39   +5       0.34    51.79     2.72    66.29     6.25     6.73     0.10     0.55    17.64     4.21P    0.07R    0.01  
Cardiff         27   38   -2      -0.31    48.97    -3.90    65.19     6.40    -0.37     0.05     0.41    13.02     3.32P    0.22R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   37   +0       0.46    52.91     0.96    62.00     6.18    -1.61     0.01     0.10     5.39     1.06P    0.57R    0.02  
Reading         26   36   +5       2.23    62.17     7.69    62.11     6.30     3.21     0.00     0.13     6.30     1.23P    0.58R    0.02  
QPR             27   35   -6       2.68    64.12     2.42    58.06     6.21   -11.32     0.00     0.02     1.44     0.23P    3.34R    0.20  
Middlesbrough   28   34   -7      -4.52    28.08    -7.68    59.45     5.87    -5.47     0.00     0.01     1.74     0.35P    1.43R    0.06  
Derby           27   34   -8      -3.97    30.59    -9.60    59.47     6.19    -8.83     0.00     0.02     2.29     0.51P    1.78R    0.07  
Birmingham      27   32  -11      -0.29    49.16    -3.64    54.35     6.03   -16.80     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    9.62R    0.77  
Charlton        27   29   -3      -4.31    29.68     2.67    53.08     6.19    -6.03     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P   12.81R    1.59  
Huddersfield    27   28  -13      -2.77    36.57    -3.68    48.99     6.01   -20.57     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   34.09R    5.79  
Stoke           27   25   -9      -9.30    10.77    -5.22    48.84     6.07   -12.26     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   32.42R    5.74  
Barnsley        27   24  -15      -7.18    17.73    -5.40    45.89     6.16   -22.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.44R   14.48  
Wigan           27   23  -17      -7.33    16.10    -7.36    44.55     5.91   -23.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.44R   19.61  
Luton           27   21  -25      -6.18    21.38    -7.74    40.42     6.01   -36.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.01R   51.65  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 January 2020, Burton_Albion 1 0 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            25   44  +19       0.89    54.46     5.01    77.75     6.28    31.12    36.73    55.39    88.01    64.78P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              25   44   +6      10.43    92.53     6.89    70.61     6.13     6.86     5.04    12.30    47.85    18.13P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              25   42  +14       0.86    54.42     3.88    74.44     6.17    23.79    16.53    32.76    74.73    44.58P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             24   41   +9       5.30    77.59     4.78    68.75     6.33     9.74     3.42     8.82    37.85    14.69P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   40  +17       0.94    55.09     9.81    71.24     6.11    25.13     7.19    17.31    57.25    27.21P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   39   +4       1.23    56.92    -1.35    67.23     6.14     7.33     1.81     5.04    28.69    10.19P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           24   38  +11      -4.65    25.26    -4.17    72.00     6.30    20.87     9.32    20.17    60.38    33.30P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           24   38   +7      -1.68    40.61    -3.64    69.61     6.43    13.30     4.76    11.45    44.40    20.26P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            23   37  +13      -0.84    45.14     3.65    71.74     6.46    22.47     9.18    19.91    59.39    30.81P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         25   37  +10      -2.39    37.45     2.06    68.04     6.20    17.91     2.79     7.42    36.46    14.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       23   36   +7       0.68    54.07     1.34    67.12     6.55    10.65     2.35     6.30    30.45    11.80P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       24   36   -2       3.43    68.88    -1.75    61.32     6.22    -5.21     0.22     0.71     6.98     1.81P    0.04R    0.00  
Blackpool            24   34   +4      -0.22    48.95     2.03    62.89     6.25     6.53     0.38     1.26    11.59     3.55P    0.02R    0.00  
Gillingham           25   34   +4      -0.19    49.44     3.85    60.79     6.14     5.13     0.11     0.49     6.09     1.64P    0.06R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         26   34   +2       0.30    52.34     4.86    60.10     6.10     4.09     0.07     0.35     5.01     1.27P    0.10R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           24   33   -4       1.41    58.45    -2.62    59.82     6.15    -4.56     0.08     0.31     4.26     1.08P    0.12R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   25   29   -2      -1.93    40.12     3.39    53.99     6.13    -3.75     0.00     0.02     0.57     0.10P    1.30R    0.00  
Rochdale             25   28  -12      -0.06    50.69    -1.61    48.95     5.89   -20.50     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    7.70R    0.01  
MK_Dons              26   25  -11      -5.06    25.04    -2.57    45.24     5.73   -17.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.81R    0.05  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   24   -8      -5.00    24.51    -0.10    45.82     5.86   -14.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   15.79R    0.03  
Tranmere             24   22  -16      -1.69    41.37    -0.52    40.37     5.96   -30.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   57.32R    0.57  
Southend             25   10  -38     -13.19     1.78   -18.08    26.46     5.56   -55.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.32R   42.65  
Bolton               23    7  -34      -1.24    44.16   -15.14    24.76     5.88   -52.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.41R   56.69  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 January 2020, Morecambe 2 1 Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          27   53  +20       8.36    85.73     8.66    85.35     6.22    29.45    42.41    80.19    98.59    84.93P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           26   50  +10       9.13    88.78     2.35    81.64     6.37    16.17    18.75    56.04    93.91    65.18P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       26   44  +20       4.00    70.19    13.62    75.21     6.37    25.62     4.17    22.48    75.10    35.09P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            25   44  +15       5.39    76.24     8.54    76.36     6.67    20.29     6.13    27.90    77.90    39.14P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         25   44  +14       1.61    58.16     1.77    81.40     6.66    26.65    19.80    58.10    93.39    68.62P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         26   44  +11       0.73    53.67     0.01    76.28     6.37    18.07     4.85    25.94    77.94    41.22P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     27   44   +9       3.46    67.42     3.73    72.85     6.09    13.17     1.49    11.08    59.24    22.57P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      26   42   +7       2.97    65.32     2.06    71.13     6.38     9.50     1.00     7.73    46.91    16.18P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       26   41  +12      -0.71    46.17     3.20    71.60     6.40    16.70     1.34     9.59    52.73    21.21P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        27   38   +1       3.12    66.63     3.63    61.62     5.99    -2.15     0.02     0.18     5.46     1.15P    0.01R    0.01  
Newport_County   24   33   +1       0.79    55.01     1.50    62.78     6.60     0.86     0.04     0.58     9.56     2.37P    0.01R    0.01  
Walsall          27   33  -10      -3.66    32.08    -9.62    58.68     6.23   -10.19     0.00     0.04     2.17     0.52P    0.14R    0.14  
Crawley_Town     27   32   -2      -1.21    44.44     3.47    56.40     6.07    -4.69     0.00     0.02     0.91     0.16P    0.28R    0.28  
Salford_City     27   32   -5       2.14    62.16     5.99    52.93     6.04   -12.78     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P    1.42R    1.42  
Scunthorpe       27   31   -3      -9.38    11.93    -7.89    59.67     6.33     0.84     0.00     0.10     3.82     1.13P    0.10R    0.10  
Cambridge_Utd    27   31   -3      -1.46    43.07     3.12    54.48     6.04    -6.32     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.10P    0.65R    0.65  
Macclesfield     25   30   -3       1.86    61.18     5.26    52.17     6.22   -12.39     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.05P    2.04R    2.04  
Grimsby          25   30   -4      -0.54    47.56     0.63    54.12     6.25   -10.16     0.00     0.01     0.55     0.12P    0.91R    0.91  
Oldham           27   28  -15      -6.59    19.36   -11.50    51.87     6.10   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P    2.27R    2.27  
Mansfield        27   27   -6     -13.04     4.34   -10.48    54.56     6.22    -3.79     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.17P    0.78R    0.78  
Leyton_Orient    26   27  -10      -1.49    43.18     1.02    48.90     6.22   -18.77     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    6.36R    6.36  
Carlisle         26   25  -20      -5.31    23.82   -11.87    49.56     6.25   -24.18     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    5.82R    5.82  
Morecambe        27   22  -23      -4.79    25.61    -7.61    40.92     5.75   -33.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.29R   45.29  
Stevenage        27   19  -16     -12.94     3.21    -9.59    41.77     5.87   -20.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.92R   33.92  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2020, Dover_Athletic 1 1 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             28   55  +27       7.70    83.11    13.65    83.91     6.03    33.42    49.62    95.23    60.34P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             30   52  +18      -1.50    42.18    -0.80    80.76     5.59    28.38    24.21    89.67    45.39P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   52  +10       5.07    72.73     1.34    75.72     5.72    12.54     5.76    61.24    16.87P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            30   50  +13       4.00    68.49     5.75    75.05     5.70    17.66     4.50    58.81    15.16P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       29   46  +15      -5.18    26.28    -2.23    76.47     5.83    25.87     8.63    70.52    28.95P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     28   45  +14      -0.17    49.15     3.98    75.34     6.01    22.33     6.01    61.82    20.70P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   45  +11       2.61    62.69     7.18    69.88     5.77    13.39     0.76    24.74     5.49P    0.01R    0.00  
Stockport          30   45   -2       7.72    81.84     4.60    63.87     5.73    -7.05     0.05     4.30     0.63P    0.51R    0.00  
Woking             29   44   -2       8.32    84.01     4.70    64.00     5.80    -7.34     0.07     4.76     0.65P    0.50R    0.00  
Halifax            29   43   -3       6.30    78.74     1.21    65.84     5.77    -3.58     0.09     7.52     1.21P    0.19R    0.00  
Barnet             28   40   +6      -2.15    39.58     0.38    66.26     6.01     8.31     0.23    10.86     2.61P    0.18R    0.00  
Hartlepool         30   40   +1      -0.72    47.02     2.01    61.72     5.53     0.48     0.01     1.76     0.30P    1.04R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     28   40   -2       1.24    56.57    -2.43    63.04     5.99    -4.52     0.05     3.78     0.75P    1.07R    0.01  
Sutton_United      30   39   +3      -2.37    39.10     2.75    62.01     5.68     4.57     0.01     2.32     0.46P    0.92R    0.00  
Torquay            30   38   -6       2.19    60.70     3.81    56.98     5.64   -11.25     0.00     0.27     0.04P    8.11R    0.20  
Eastleigh          28   37   -4       0.51    53.03    -0.63    60.63     6.04    -5.81     0.01     1.65     0.29P    2.78R    0.06  
Aldershot          29   37   -6       2.67    63.87     1.86    57.77     5.65    -9.70     0.00     0.40     0.08P    6.17R    0.14  
Maidenhead         30   35   -8       1.04    56.13     3.18    54.22     5.48   -12.24     0.00     0.04     0.00P   16.99R    0.56  
Dag_&_Red          30   33   -7      -6.17    22.78    -4.18    52.57     5.46   -10.40     0.00     0.02     0.00P   24.34R    0.88  
Wrexham            30   32   -6     -10.20    10.55    -7.70    53.53     5.52    -6.51     0.00     0.03     0.01P   18.15R    0.55  
AFC_Fylde          28   30  -11      -9.27    12.01   -12.08    56.32     6.13    -8.64     0.00     0.26     0.06P   11.47R    0.46  
Chesterfield       30   30  -14      -8.96    13.81   -10.33    50.74     5.58   -16.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.35R    2.70  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   25  -20     -10.33     9.76   -12.40    46.19     5.80   -23.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.05R   12.19  
Chorley            30   24  -27      -2.12    40.66    -3.63    37.72     5.06   -39.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.19R   82.24