Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 16 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 January 2020, Aston_Villa 1 6 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        21   61  +36      13.90    99.76     5.21   100.21     4.82    63.48    98.81    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   47  +37      -4.84    18.99    -2.48    83.90     4.68    64.65     1.18    93.29    99.62    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   45  +26       7.75    88.00    15.38    72.79     5.53    34.95     0.01     6.15    77.52    94.47    99.67     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   39  +10       0.05    49.82    -3.27    65.92     5.47    17.55     0.00     0.53    17.08    63.58    93.78     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   34  +11      -3.92    27.83    -0.59    60.58     5.44    17.82     0.00     0.03     3.65    22.79    75.71     0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        22   32   +3       5.22    78.63     8.53    51.85     5.43    -0.06     0.00     0.00     0.12     1.37    14.94     0.16R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    22   31   +3       1.62    60.24     5.08    52.95     5.48     2.88     0.00     0.00     0.16     2.12    20.36     0.10R    0.00  
Tottenham        22   30   +5      -7.85    11.91    -6.59    58.36     5.52    14.82     0.00     0.01     1.68    13.11    61.29     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   22   29   -4       1.05    56.70    -0.53    48.38     5.27    -8.33     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.25     4.47     1.20R    0.01  
Arsenal          22   28   -2      -6.06    18.66    -7.38    52.59     5.49     1.48     0.00     0.00     0.12     1.76    18.23     0.18R    0.00  
Everton          22   28   -7      -0.98    44.68    -4.12    49.45     5.49    -7.93     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.45     7.33     0.86R    0.01  
Southampton      22   28  -12       4.76    77.50     0.20    46.53     5.36   -18.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     2.31     3.71R    0.11  
Newcastle        22   26  -13       1.45    59.76    -4.19    44.81     5.26   -18.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.07     6.46R    0.28  
Brighton         22   24   -5       0.55    54.59     5.84    41.86     5.23   -11.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.32    13.94R    0.75  
Burnley          22   24  -13       0.88    56.79    -1.31    40.74     5.14   -22.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18    21.04R    1.55  
West_Ham         21   22   -8      -3.71    29.09    -2.67    40.81     5.42   -16.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22    20.13R    1.69  
Watford          22   22  -14      -2.33    36.92    -3.73    38.69     5.23   -22.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    34.67R    3.55  
Aston_Villa      22   21  -15      -0.51    48.14     2.03    36.31     5.27   -26.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    53.47R    7.44  
Bournemouth      22   20  -15      -3.72    29.06    -3.60    36.83     5.20   -24.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    48.30R    6.78  
Norwich          22   14  -23      -4.85    22.38    -1.79    27.39     4.97   -39.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.75R   77.82  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 January 2020, Cardiff 0 0 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       27   53  +20       4.88    73.14     2.80    87.44     6.15    33.33    52.22    80.28    99.16    86.46P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    27   52  +20       6.32    79.23     7.22    85.20     6.10    30.80    33.63    69.17    98.18    78.07P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       27   46  +23      -0.51    46.98     8.60    78.88     6.19    33.16     9.00    27.08    87.85    47.33P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          27   45  +11       2.30    61.04     2.41    73.90     6.34    15.19     1.89     7.90    62.02    21.53P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   44   +9       6.02    78.53     5.46    73.54     6.36    12.27     1.62     6.82    58.97    18.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   42  +13       1.26    56.52     7.29    71.47     6.20    17.96     0.83     3.78    48.16    14.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         27   42   +2       2.66    63.31    -1.42    69.46     6.16     4.29     0.29     1.60    32.14     8.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall        27   41   +2       5.90    78.23     4.52    65.79     6.12     0.32     0.05     0.42    14.94     2.87P    0.08R    0.00  
Bristol_City    27   41   +1       2.64    63.43    -0.71    67.66     6.27     1.90     0.16     0.96    23.33     5.48P    0.04R    0.00  
Preston         27   40   +4       1.26    56.66     1.36    67.56     6.24     6.08     0.15     0.81    23.87     5.80P    0.04R    0.00  
Hull            27   39   +5       0.32    51.89     2.68    66.26     6.24     6.69     0.08     0.54    18.14     4.14P    0.10R    0.00  
Cardiff         27   38   -2      -0.43    48.30    -4.03    65.28     6.32    -0.23     0.04     0.38    13.68     3.35P    0.16R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   37   +0       0.50    53.04     0.99    61.94     6.18    -1.71     0.01     0.09     5.57     1.12P    0.59R    0.02  
Reading         26   36   +5       2.14    61.76     7.59    62.06     6.27     3.10     0.01     0.09     6.26     1.17P    0.63R    0.03  
QPR             27   35   -6       2.74    64.48     2.53    58.00     6.17   -11.49     0.00     0.01     1.42     0.24P    3.57R    0.20  
Middlesbrough   27   34   -6      -3.82    30.99    -7.55    60.70     6.07    -4.62     0.00     0.03     3.31     0.78P    0.98R    0.04  
Derby           27   34   -8      -3.82    31.27    -9.37    59.42     6.17    -8.95     0.00     0.03     2.37     0.63P    1.79R    0.09  
Birmingham      27   32  -11      -0.21    49.64    -3.46    54.36     6.04   -16.83     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.06P    9.76R    0.80  
Charlton        27   29   -3      -4.31    29.63     2.64    53.06     6.15    -6.03     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P   12.84R    1.48  
Huddersfield    27   28  -13      -2.97    35.63    -3.91    48.99     6.03   -20.59     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   34.06R    5.85  
Stoke           27   25   -9      -9.29    10.73    -5.19    48.81     6.10   -12.30     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   32.83R    5.91  
Barnsley        27   24  -15      -7.20    17.71    -5.37    45.88     6.13   -22.05     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    54.20R   14.58  
Wigan           27   23  -17      -7.26    16.30    -7.29    44.55     5.91   -23.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.37R   19.50  
Luton           27   21  -25      -6.16    20.93    -7.79    40.44     6.01   -36.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.95R   51.50  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 January 2020, Burton_Albion 1 0 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            25   44  +19       0.79    53.72     4.82    77.88     6.25    31.35    37.50    56.40    88.25    65.84P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              25   44   +6      10.51    92.66     7.05    70.54     6.14     6.75     4.99    12.14    47.82    17.83P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              25   42  +14       0.94    54.93     3.96    74.37     6.11    23.71    16.36    32.37    74.50    44.39P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             24   41   +9       5.22    77.02     4.67    68.82     6.35     9.81     3.46     8.79    38.62    14.95P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   40  +17       0.95    55.07     9.82    71.18     6.14    25.07     7.03    17.20    56.91    26.82P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   39   +4       1.37    57.74    -1.09    67.12     6.17     7.17     1.78     5.05    28.23    10.21P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           24   38  +11      -4.59    25.53    -4.03    71.94     6.36    20.79     9.14    20.16    60.14    33.26P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           24   38   +7      -1.71    40.28    -3.64    69.62     6.44    13.30     4.75    11.55    44.54    20.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            23   37  +13      -0.84    45.11     3.65    71.68     6.43    22.38     8.94    19.50    58.98    30.51P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         25   37  +10      -2.43    37.11     1.98    67.95     6.19    17.82     2.70     7.22    35.90    14.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       23   36   +7       0.65    53.56     1.29    67.15     6.55    10.70     2.42     6.34    30.91    11.95P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       24   36   -2       3.31    68.31    -1.97    61.37     6.23    -5.11     0.25     0.69     7.15     1.84P    0.05R    0.00  
Blackpool            24   34   +4      -0.26    49.08     1.97    63.01     6.25     6.65     0.40     1.42    12.33     3.77P    0.02R    0.00  
Gillingham           25   34   +4      -0.10    49.98     3.99    60.71     6.12     4.98     0.13     0.50     5.92     1.50P    0.07R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         26   34   +2       0.48    53.15     5.13    59.96     6.12     3.90     0.09     0.35     4.87     1.29P    0.12R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           24   33   -4       1.41    58.49    -2.59    59.80     6.16    -4.56     0.06     0.32     4.35     1.11P    0.15R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   25   29   -2      -2.02    39.67     3.25    54.03     6.08    -3.69     0.00     0.01     0.52     0.12P    1.30R    0.00  
Rochdale             25   28  -12      -0.01    50.91    -1.54    48.94     5.91   -20.52     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    7.88R    0.01  
MK_Dons              26   25  -11      -4.98    25.62    -2.43    45.19     5.74   -18.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.22R    0.05  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   24   -8      -4.99    24.37    -0.15    45.89     5.89   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.02R    0.05  
Tranmere             24   22  -16      -1.70    41.27    -0.53    40.52     5.98   -30.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.53R    0.48  
Southend             25   10  -38     -13.27     1.76   -18.26    26.51     5.56   -55.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.31R   42.77  
Bolton               23    7  -34      -1.31    43.45   -15.35    24.80     5.90   -52.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.32R   56.64  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 January 2020, Morecambe 2 1 Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          27   53  +20       8.48    86.13     8.87    85.30     6.20    29.35    42.18    79.76    98.52    84.60P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           26   50  +10       9.00    88.28     2.20    81.64     6.33    16.19    18.56    56.19    94.07    65.15P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       26   44  +20       4.17    70.87    13.85    75.19     6.36    25.56     4.21    22.47    74.91    34.73P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            25   44  +15       5.25    75.83     8.36    76.37     6.66    20.25     5.92    27.91    77.91    39.03P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         25   44  +14       1.49    57.62     1.64    81.46     6.62    26.74    20.35    58.43    93.54    69.23P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         26   44  +11       0.77    53.73     0.05    76.30     6.45    18.08     5.04    26.10    77.77    41.55P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     27   44   +9       3.45    67.43     3.68    72.87     6.10    13.21     1.41    11.00    59.10    22.40P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      26   42   +7       2.95    64.95     2.07    71.09     6.41     9.49     1.00     7.70    47.22    16.59P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       26   41  +12      -0.74    45.97     3.17    71.63     6.37    16.73     1.28     9.53    52.96    20.80P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        27   38   +1       3.15    66.39     3.71    61.60     5.97    -2.21     0.02     0.19     5.26     1.10P    0.01R    0.01  
Newport_County   24   33   +1       0.70    54.55     1.35    62.88     6.66     1.00     0.04     0.57    10.20     2.65P    0.01R    0.01  
Walsall          27   33  -10      -3.51    32.81    -9.46    58.60     6.17   -10.31     0.00     0.04     1.99     0.47P    0.17R    0.17  
Crawley_Town     27   32   -2      -1.30    43.91     3.35    56.40     6.11    -4.69     0.00     0.01     0.87     0.16P    0.30R    0.30  
Salford_City     27   32   -5       2.19    62.32     6.07    52.83     6.05   -12.97     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    1.43R    1.43  
Scunthorpe       27   31   -3      -9.30    11.98    -7.78    59.64     6.30     0.79     0.01     0.09     3.49     1.10P    0.10R    0.10  
Cambridge_Utd    27   31   -3      -1.42    43.18     3.16    54.52     5.99    -6.26     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.08P    0.65R    0.65  
Macclesfield     25   30   -3       1.79    61.09     5.18    52.17     6.20   -12.36     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.06P    1.94R    1.94  
Grimsby          25   30   -4      -0.51    47.98     0.62    54.09     6.18   -10.19     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.08P    0.84R    0.84  
Oldham           27   28  -15      -6.67    19.17   -11.57    51.96     6.09   -18.01     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    2.03R    2.03  
Mansfield        27   27   -6     -13.15     4.27   -10.65    54.62     6.20    -3.69     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.14P    0.84R    0.84  
Leyton_Orient    26   27  -10      -1.39    43.48     1.12    48.81     6.18   -18.89     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    6.55R    6.55  
Carlisle         26   25  -20      -5.22    24.11   -11.74    49.56     6.25   -24.18     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    5.76R    5.76  
Morecambe        27   22  -23      -4.83    25.43    -7.69    40.97     5.76   -33.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.01R   45.01  
Stevenage        27   19  -16     -12.95     3.24    -9.57    41.78     5.91   -20.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.37R   34.37  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2020, Dover_Athletic 1 1 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             28   55  +27       7.54    82.55    13.38    84.00     6.08    33.53    49.89    95.07    60.91P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             30   52  +18      -1.47    42.42    -0.77    80.72     5.61    28.37    24.05    89.48    44.92P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   52  +10       4.92    72.15     1.13    75.74     5.74    12.59     5.78    61.56    17.12P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            30   50  +13       3.99    68.14     5.72    75.09     5.70    17.71     4.55    59.19    15.53P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       29   46  +15      -5.07    26.74    -2.06    76.39     5.83    25.75     8.27    70.15    28.31P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     28   45  +14      -0.19    49.01     3.91    75.40     6.02    22.44     6.12    62.29    20.58P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   45  +11       2.75    63.45     7.37    69.80     5.82    13.26     0.77    24.03     5.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Stockport          30   45   -2       7.63    81.52     4.46    63.90     5.71    -7.00     0.06     4.27     0.69P    0.53R    0.00  
Woking             29   44   -2       8.15    83.50     4.41    64.08     5.86    -7.24     0.06     4.78     0.72P    0.59R    0.00  
Halifax            29   43   -3       6.29    78.82     1.28    65.81     5.75    -3.57     0.11     7.28     1.20P    0.23R    0.00  
Barnet             28   40   +6      -2.16    39.42     0.37    66.31     6.05     8.36     0.26    11.41     2.76P    0.18R    0.00  
Hartlepool         30   40   +1      -0.56    47.74     2.23    61.65     5.57     0.40     0.01     1.90     0.35P    1.02R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     28   40   -2       1.31    56.88    -2.23    62.95     5.99    -4.65     0.06     3.78     0.63P    1.02R    0.00  
Sutton_United      30   39   +3      -2.42    38.81     2.72    62.05     5.64     4.62     0.01     2.18     0.43P    0.83R    0.01  
Torquay            30   38   -6       2.45    61.90     4.24    56.84     5.65   -11.47     0.00     0.26     0.04P    8.43R    0.20  
Eastleigh          28   37   -4       0.50    53.24    -0.63    60.67     6.01    -5.77     0.02     1.63     0.30P    2.63R    0.03  
Aldershot          29   37   -6       2.72    63.99     1.97    57.73     5.69    -9.75     0.00     0.39     0.06P    6.33R    0.14  
Maidenhead         30   35   -8       0.98    55.67     3.07    54.26     5.53   -12.21     0.00     0.05     0.01P   17.21R    0.62  
Dag_&_Red          30   33   -7      -6.15    23.04    -4.16    52.55     5.47   -10.39     0.00     0.02     0.00P   24.22R    0.91  
Wrexham            30   32   -6     -10.37    10.07    -8.02    53.60     5.54    -6.41     0.00     0.04     0.01P   17.88R    0.64  
AFC_Fylde          28   30  -11      -9.13    12.70   -11.92    56.25     6.15    -8.78     0.00     0.23     0.05P   11.64R    0.52  
Chesterfield       30   30  -14      -8.95    14.30   -10.28    50.74     5.60   -16.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.39R    2.83  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   25  -20     -10.25     9.79   -12.29    46.17     5.80   -23.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.79R   12.34  
Chorley            30   24  -27      -2.29    39.79    -3.88    37.81     5.10   -39.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.07R   81.75