Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 15 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 January 2020, Aston_Villa 1 6 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        21   61  +36      13.94    99.76     5.28   100.22     4.81    63.52    98.86    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   47  +37      -4.71    19.17    -2.20    83.82     4.68    64.44     1.13    92.72    99.59    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   45  +26       7.59    87.65    15.13    72.94     5.53    35.12     0.01     6.77    78.18    94.55    99.70     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   39  +10       0.13    50.30    -3.11    65.89     5.50    17.46     0.00     0.47    16.41    63.25    93.45     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   34  +11      -3.90    27.82    -0.57    60.54     5.42    17.75     0.00     0.03     3.66    22.77    75.59     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        22   32   +3       5.15    78.33     8.47    51.91     5.46    -0.02     0.00     0.00     0.09     1.42    15.18     0.18R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    22   31   +3       1.55    59.81     4.99    52.94     5.53     2.89     0.00     0.00     0.21     2.16    20.61     0.12R    0.00  
Tottenham        22   30   +5      -7.98    11.40    -6.79    58.37     5.53    14.85     0.00     0.02     1.69    13.36    61.41     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   22   29   -4       1.17    57.58    -0.41    48.33     5.30    -8.44     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.25     4.60     1.27R    0.02  
Arsenal          22   28   -2      -6.04    18.88    -7.38    52.53     5.49     1.43     0.00     0.00     0.10     1.68    18.13     0.22R    0.00  
Everton          22   28   -7      -0.94    44.99    -4.11    49.42     5.47    -7.95     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.45     7.13     0.86R    0.02  
Southampton      22   28  -12       4.76    77.81     0.18    46.57     5.35   -18.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     2.27     3.56R    0.12  
Newcastle        22   26  -13       1.49    60.23    -4.12    44.79     5.28   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.06     6.59R    0.30  
Brighton         22   24   -5       0.50    54.27     5.68    41.87     5.24   -11.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31    13.81R    0.84  
Burnley          22   24  -13       0.98    57.25    -1.17    40.65     5.15   -22.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17    21.64R    1.61  
West_Ham         21   22   -8      -3.73    29.20    -2.72    40.85     5.42   -16.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.29    19.85R    1.65  
Watford          22   22  -14      -2.31    36.75    -3.71    38.65     5.17   -22.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    34.73R    3.67  
Aston_Villa      22   21  -15      -0.52    48.31     2.06    36.32     5.26   -26.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    53.14R    7.53  
Bournemouth      22   20  -15      -3.70    29.05    -3.58    36.82     5.17   -24.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    48.55R    6.96  
Norwich          22   14  -23      -4.95    22.02    -1.93    27.49     4.98   -39.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.48R   77.29  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 January 2020, Cardiff 0 0 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       27   53  +20       4.77    72.83     2.67    87.42     6.13    33.34    51.95    80.46    99.15    86.35P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    27   52  +20       6.22    78.95     7.07    85.26     6.08    30.90    33.80    69.22    98.25    77.98P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       27   46  +23      -0.37    47.59     8.82    78.77     6.21    33.03     8.81    26.51    87.38    46.82P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          27   45  +11       1.91    59.09     1.81    74.09     6.35    15.51     2.12     8.24    63.19    22.36P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   44   +9       5.98    78.52     5.43    73.53     6.37    12.20     1.67     6.66    58.59    17.77P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   42  +13       1.22    56.66     7.24    71.56     6.25    18.08     0.79     3.70    48.68    14.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         27   42   +2       2.85    64.50    -1.12    69.35     6.19     4.11     0.31     1.63    31.37     8.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall        27   41   +2       5.76    77.61     4.37    65.85     6.13     0.36     0.08     0.43    15.10     3.04P    0.08R    0.00  
Bristol_City    27   41   +1       2.41    62.57    -1.11    67.79     6.27     2.05     0.18     1.04    23.55     5.63P    0.04R    0.00  
Preston         27   40   +4       1.32    57.09     1.46    67.50     6.22     6.03     0.15     0.83    23.32     5.53P    0.05R    0.00  
Hull            27   39   +5       0.33    51.90     2.75    66.22     6.26     6.63     0.07     0.55    17.93     4.22P    0.11R    0.00  
Cardiff         27   38   -2      -0.41    48.22    -4.04    65.28     6.40    -0.25     0.05     0.43    13.92     3.36P    0.21R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   37   +0       0.44    52.47     0.97    61.99     6.19    -1.63     0.01     0.10     5.73     1.16P    0.59R    0.02  
Reading         26   36   +5       2.23    62.20     7.74    61.98     6.30     2.99     0.01     0.13     6.18     1.27P    0.57R    0.02  
QPR             27   35   -6       2.78    64.47     2.59    57.92     6.20   -11.55     0.00     0.01     1.37     0.21P    3.54R    0.23  
Middlesbrough   27   34   -6      -3.63    31.90    -7.31    60.69     6.09    -4.70     0.00     0.03     3.35     0.80P    0.97R    0.03  
Derby           27   34   -8      -3.88    30.94    -9.41    59.43     6.17    -8.97     0.01     0.03     2.38     0.55P    1.76R    0.09  
Birmingham      27   32  -11      -0.26    49.42    -3.59    54.38     6.06   -16.79     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.06P    9.85R    0.76  
Charlton        27   29   -3      -4.14    30.27     2.90    53.00     6.21    -6.18     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   13.50R    1.59  
Huddersfield    27   28  -13      -2.83    36.28    -3.70    49.01     6.02   -20.61     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   33.70R    5.70  
Stoke           27   25   -9      -9.39    10.88    -5.29    48.92     6.13   -12.12     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   31.71R    5.76  
Barnsley        27   24  -15      -7.18    17.80    -5.40    45.83     6.17   -22.10     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    54.71R   14.96  
Wigan           27   23  -17      -7.20    16.52    -7.22    44.49     5.87   -23.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.85R   19.70  
Luton           27   21  -25      -6.05    21.41    -7.65    40.47     6.02   -36.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.76R   51.13  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 January 2020, Burton_Albion 1 0 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            25   44  +19       0.86    54.35     4.89    77.86     6.24    31.30    37.49    56.39    88.60    65.89P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              25   44   +6      10.37    92.36     6.89    70.60     6.15     6.89     5.03    12.23    47.98    18.07P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              25   42  +14       0.94    55.06     3.96    74.44     6.14    23.81    16.65    32.90    74.55    44.73P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             24   41   +9       5.38    77.52     4.90    68.71     6.36     9.68     3.39     8.74    37.70    14.37P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   40  +17       0.88    54.77     9.72    71.18     6.09    25.09     6.82    16.63    57.18    26.57P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        25   39   +4       1.25    56.83    -1.34    67.22     6.18     7.34     1.83     5.12    28.99    10.64P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           24   38  +11      -4.71    24.99    -4.23    72.02     6.34    20.91     9.31    20.51    61.07    33.99P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           24   38   +7      -1.67    40.64    -3.59    69.67     6.36    13.36     4.67    11.47    44.50    20.01P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            23   37  +13      -0.79    45.41     3.71    71.63     6.51    22.34     9.11    19.68    58.83    30.27P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         25   37  +10      -2.42    37.11     2.03    67.90     6.17    17.76     2.63     7.12    35.96    14.51P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       23   36   +7       0.82    54.84     1.58    67.03     6.56    10.50     2.26     6.04    29.97    11.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       24   36   -2       3.38    68.65    -1.88    61.28     6.22    -5.23     0.17     0.67     6.89     1.82P    0.06R    0.00  
Blackpool            24   34   +4      -0.28    48.54     1.92    63.00     6.24     6.66     0.37     1.39    12.04     3.67P    0.01R    0.00  
Gillingham           25   34   +4      -0.12    49.85     4.01    60.70     6.14     5.01     0.12     0.46     6.08     1.57P    0.09R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         26   34   +2       0.43    53.02     5.03    59.99     6.08     3.95     0.08     0.34     4.74     1.19P    0.10R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           24   33   -4       1.44    58.76    -2.61    59.80     6.17    -4.57     0.08     0.31     4.39     1.12P    0.15R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   25   29   -2      -2.03    39.51     3.26    54.12     6.05    -3.57     0.01     0.02     0.50     0.11P    1.19R    0.00  
Rochdale             25   28  -12       0.01    50.98    -1.44    48.92     5.89   -20.62     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    7.79R    0.00  
MK_Dons              26   25  -11      -5.16    24.75    -2.73    45.32     5.72   -17.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.76R    0.03  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   24   -8      -4.95    24.42    -0.04    45.80     5.85   -14.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.05R    0.03  
Tranmere             24   22  -16      -1.78    40.96    -0.65    40.49     5.97   -30.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.02R    0.53  
Southend             25   10  -38     -13.13     1.83   -18.01    26.43     5.54   -56.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.36R   43.46  
Bolton               23    7  -34      -1.40    43.00   -15.39    24.86     5.90   -52.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.41R   55.94  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 January 2020, Morecambe 2 1 Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          27   53  +20       8.48    86.56     8.90    85.30     6.17    29.36    41.42    79.93    98.58    84.77P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           26   50  +10       8.93    88.22     2.08    81.78     6.42    16.40    19.49    56.62    93.95    65.46P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       26   44  +20       4.10    70.64    13.72    75.24     6.35    25.66     3.99    22.56    75.03    34.90P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            25   44  +15       5.34    76.28     8.47    76.32     6.64    20.21     5.84    27.40    77.82    38.67P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         25   44  +14       1.44    56.94     1.58    81.56     6.67    26.87    20.72    58.75    93.67    69.44P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         26   44  +11       0.76    53.74     0.07    76.22     6.40    17.98     4.73    25.32    77.44    40.87P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     27   44   +9       3.32    66.65     3.55    72.94     6.06    13.29     1.44    11.13    59.68    22.61P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      26   42   +7       2.95    65.09     2.00    71.14     6.41     9.57     1.00     7.72    47.12    16.32P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       26   41  +12      -0.75    45.92     3.12    71.61     6.39    16.74     1.30     9.63    52.77    21.25P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        27   38   +1       3.21    67.05     3.70    61.59     5.98    -2.22     0.02     0.17     5.50     1.15P    0.01R    0.01  
Newport_County   24   33   +1       0.73    54.64     1.41    62.87     6.60     0.97     0.04     0.59     9.70     2.48P    0.04R    0.04  
Walsall          27   33  -10      -3.50    33.18    -9.44    58.51     6.22   -10.40     0.00     0.05     2.04     0.49P    0.14R    0.14  
Crawley_Town     27   32   -2      -1.16    44.74     3.57    56.35     6.05    -4.83     0.00     0.02     0.88     0.18P    0.27R    0.27  
Salford_City     27   32   -5       2.19    62.14     6.06    52.86     5.99   -12.88     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P    1.33R    1.33  
Scunthorpe       27   31   -3      -9.36    12.14    -7.88    59.70     6.31     0.93     0.01     0.09     3.79     1.04P    0.12R    0.12  
Cambridge_Utd    27   31   -3      -1.39    43.38     3.23    54.48     5.98    -6.36     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.08P    0.65R    0.65  
Macclesfield     25   30   -3       1.81    60.88     5.18    52.16     6.14   -12.42     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    1.89R    1.89  
Grimsby          25   30   -4      -0.46    48.50     0.67    54.06     6.21   -10.26     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.08P    0.86R    0.86  
Oldham           27   28  -15      -6.74    19.01   -11.66    51.94     6.08   -18.05     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    2.13R    2.13  
Mansfield        27   27   -6     -12.95     4.45   -10.37    54.52     6.24    -3.90     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.11P    0.96R    0.96  
Leyton_Orient    26   27  -10      -1.42    43.37     1.11    48.88     6.17   -18.79     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    6.44R    6.44  
Carlisle         26   25  -20      -5.23    24.02   -11.73    49.52     6.26   -24.24     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    6.07R    6.07  
Morecambe        27   22  -23      -4.79    25.65    -7.59    40.90     5.69   -33.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.39R   45.39  
Stevenage        27   19  -16     -13.05     3.16    -9.76    41.83     5.90   -19.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.71R   33.71  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2020, Dover_Athletic 1 1 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             28   55  +27       7.51    82.48    13.35    84.05     6.07    33.63    50.16    95.31    61.25P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             30   52  +18      -1.31    43.25    -0.61    80.68     5.64    28.31    23.78    89.30    44.67P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   52  +10       4.92    72.07     1.13    75.81     5.69    12.70     5.81    61.96    17.13P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            30   50  +13       4.09    68.86     5.93    74.96     5.70    17.49     4.54    58.19    15.04P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       29   46  +15      -5.30    25.64    -2.41    76.56     5.84    26.01     8.42    70.98    28.64P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     28   45  +14      -0.24    48.85     3.85    75.41     6.04    22.43     5.98    62.16    20.81P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   45  +11       2.71    63.20     7.33    69.77     5.85    13.22     0.81    24.41     5.64P    0.02R    0.00  
Stockport          30   45   -2       7.78    81.93     4.68    63.82     5.75    -7.15     0.05     4.17     0.57P    0.46R    0.00  
Woking             29   44   -2       8.39    84.26     4.75    63.95     5.80    -7.45     0.05     4.45     0.67P    0.61R    0.00  
Halifax            29   43   -3       6.44    79.50     1.39    65.78     5.75    -3.59     0.08     7.30     1.17P    0.26R    0.00  
Barnet             28   40   +6      -2.19    39.29     0.38    66.32     6.00     8.39     0.24    11.05     2.59P    0.15R    0.00  
Hartlepool         30   40   +1      -0.78    46.60     1.88    61.75     5.52     0.54     0.00     1.96     0.33P    0.96R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     28   40   -2       1.27    56.66    -2.36    63.01     5.98    -4.57     0.06     3.76     0.67P    1.04R    0.01  
Sutton_United      30   39   +3      -2.54    37.99     2.55    62.07     5.65     4.64     0.02     2.29     0.42P    0.90R    0.00  
Torquay            30   38   -6       2.36    61.45     4.06    56.86     5.67   -11.40     0.00     0.26     0.04P    8.55R    0.20  
Eastleigh          28   37   -4       0.69    54.17    -0.36    60.52     6.01    -5.97     0.01     1.64     0.23P    2.83R    0.04  
Aldershot          29   37   -6       2.74    64.28     1.95    57.70     5.64    -9.78     0.00     0.41     0.05P    6.23R    0.12  
Maidenhead         30   35   -8       0.90    55.46     2.96    54.29     5.52   -12.17     0.00     0.04     0.00P   16.85R    0.55  
Dag_&_Red          30   33   -7      -6.23    22.43    -4.19    52.57     5.46   -10.41     0.00     0.03     0.01P   24.27R    0.83  
Wrexham            30   32   -6     -10.18    10.50    -7.76    53.55     5.55    -6.45     0.00     0.03     0.01P   18.22R    0.60  
AFC_Fylde          28   30  -11      -9.45    11.71   -12.40    56.45     6.14    -8.48     0.00     0.29     0.06P   11.08R    0.47  
Chesterfield       30   30  -14      -8.86    14.33   -10.13    50.70     5.57   -16.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.65R    2.69  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   25  -20     -10.29    10.05   -12.35    46.19     5.80   -23.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.70R   12.06  
Chorley            30   24  -27      -2.12    40.55    -3.63    37.77     5.06   -39.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.23R   82.42