Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 13 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 January 2020, Aston_Villa 1 6 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        21   61  +36      13.85    99.78     5.07   100.28     4.79    63.63    98.90    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   47  +37      -4.63    20.18    -2.08    83.80     4.67    64.33     1.09    92.85    99.65    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   45  +26       7.71    87.62    15.30    72.88     5.54    35.03     0.01     6.59    78.12    94.75    99.65     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   39  +10       0.17    50.62    -3.08    65.89     5.50    17.46     0.00     0.53    16.41    63.41    93.69     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   34  +11      -3.93    27.61    -0.57    60.52     5.42    17.74     0.00     0.03     3.70    22.68    75.37     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        22   32   +3       5.24    78.69     8.57    51.87     5.45    -0.05     0.00     0.00     0.10     1.46    15.23     0.15R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    22   31   +3       1.66    60.12     5.17    52.86     5.51     2.76     0.00     0.00     0.18     2.05    20.06     0.12R    0.00  
Tottenham        22   30   +5      -8.02    11.05    -6.83    58.40     5.51    14.90     0.00     0.01     1.66    13.19    61.34     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   22   29   -4       1.05    57.14    -0.57    48.46     5.29    -8.22     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.28     4.89     1.07R    0.01  
Arsenal          22   28   -2      -6.11    18.52    -7.53    52.65     5.52     1.60     0.00     0.00     0.14     1.66    18.76     0.18R    0.01  
Everton          22   28   -7      -0.79    45.79    -3.82    49.23     5.49    -8.23     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.40     6.80     1.01R    0.02  
Southampton      22   28  -12       4.70    77.18     0.14    46.55     5.38   -18.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     2.36     3.75R    0.14  
Newcastle        22   26  -13       1.43    59.58    -4.20    44.81     5.27   -18.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.01     6.34R    0.26  
Brighton         22   24   -5       0.59    55.05     5.89    41.77     5.26   -11.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31    14.46R    0.84  
Burnley          22   24  -13       0.88    56.49    -1.30    40.67     5.18   -22.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16    21.72R    1.67  
West_Ham         21   22   -8      -3.80    28.54    -2.85    40.82     5.46   -16.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25    20.25R    1.76  
Watford          22   22  -14      -2.28    36.88    -3.71    38.69     5.21   -22.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    34.30R    3.70  
Aston_Villa      22   21  -15      -0.59    47.37     1.90    36.40     5.27   -26.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    52.58R    7.54  
Bournemouth      22   20  -15      -3.62    29.46    -3.46    36.81     5.20   -24.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    48.66R    7.25  
Norwich          22   14  -23      -4.97    21.85    -2.04    27.55     4.98   -39.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.41R   76.80  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 January 2020, Cardiff 0 0 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       27   53  +20       4.96    73.28     2.90    87.35     6.13    33.17    52.03    80.01    99.14    85.97P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    27   52  +20       6.33    79.37     7.24    85.14     6.05    30.74    33.53    68.96    98.17    77.83P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       27   46  +23      -0.53    46.81     8.63    78.86     6.19    33.16     9.15    27.24    87.83    47.19P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          27   45  +11       2.16    60.43     2.20    74.02     6.35    15.33     1.98     8.01    62.61    21.98P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   44   +9       5.88    78.19     5.27    73.61     6.36    12.34     1.76     6.91    59.05    18.40P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   42  +13       1.21    56.26     7.21    71.57     6.24    18.11     0.78     3.88    48.70    14.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         27   42   +2       2.64    63.57    -1.44    69.52     6.13     4.36     0.29     1.62    32.14     8.42P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall        27   41   +2       5.82    78.00     4.46    65.77     6.11     0.23     0.05     0.40    14.70     2.78P    0.05R    0.00  
Bristol_City    27   41   +1       2.64    63.38    -0.79    67.71     6.28     1.88     0.15     0.98    23.17     5.53P    0.03R    0.00  
Preston         27   40   +4       1.45    57.56     1.64    67.35     6.24     5.83     0.12     0.78    22.49     5.30P    0.04R    0.00  
Hull            27   39   +5       0.39    51.97     2.77    66.28     6.28     6.73     0.07     0.55    18.06     4.30P    0.09R    0.00  
Cardiff         27   38   -2      -0.46    47.92    -4.10    65.38     6.38    -0.07     0.06     0.39    14.12     3.37P    0.15R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   37   +0       0.46    52.84     0.93    61.97     6.22    -1.63     0.01     0.07     5.61     1.16P    0.54R    0.01  
Reading         26   36   +5       2.13    61.66     7.57    62.12     6.32     3.21     0.01     0.11     6.56     1.31P    0.58R    0.03  
QPR             27   35   -6       2.66    64.19     2.38    58.11     6.21   -11.23     0.00     0.02     1.60     0.26P    3.38R    0.22  
Middlesbrough   27   34   -6      -3.71    31.64    -7.40    60.63     6.08    -4.75     0.00     0.04     3.20     0.78P    1.07R    0.05  
Derby           27   34   -8      -3.77    31.68    -9.30    59.39     6.18    -8.98     0.01     0.02     2.33     0.56P    1.84R    0.08  
Birmingham      27   32  -11      -0.09    50.27    -3.36    54.22     6.06   -16.99     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P   10.21R    0.79  
Charlton        27   29   -3      -4.35    29.39     2.62    53.09     6.16    -6.02     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P   12.86R    1.53  
Huddersfield    27   28  -13      -2.77    36.61    -3.66    48.88     5.99   -20.72     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   34.53R    5.74  
Stoke           27   25   -9      -9.35    10.74    -5.27    48.85     6.13   -12.27     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   32.22R    5.92  
Barnsley        27   24  -15      -7.08    18.17    -5.18    45.77     6.17   -22.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.94R   15.00  
Wigan           27   23  -17      -7.42    15.83    -7.52    44.69     5.90   -23.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.44R   18.65  
Luton           27   21  -25      -6.20    21.00    -7.77    40.41     6.01   -36.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.01R   51.99  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2020, Bristol_Rovers 0 2 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            25   44  +19       0.73    53.37     4.80    77.97     6.27    31.45    36.56    56.01    89.01    65.69P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              25   44   +6      10.61    92.79     7.21    70.52     6.15     6.73     4.65    11.43    47.88    17.17P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              24   41  +14       0.96    54.94     3.47    74.74     6.39    23.74    18.03    34.34    75.39    46.09P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             24   41   +9       5.44    77.79     4.98    68.77     6.35     9.71     3.29     8.61    38.44    14.58P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           24   39  +17       1.34    57.31     9.86    71.67     6.39    25.24     8.66    19.54    59.55    29.23P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           24   38  +11      -4.79    24.71    -4.23    72.12     6.37    21.08     9.18    20.71    61.54    34.25P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           24   38   +7      -1.72    40.38    -3.64    69.69     6.40    13.41     4.41    10.85    45.41    20.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            23   37  +13      -0.79    45.27     3.72    71.63     6.52    22.25     8.54    19.05    58.80    29.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         25   37  +10      -2.45    36.89     1.98    67.90     6.24    17.65     2.49     7.04    36.32    14.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       23   36   +7       0.71    54.11     1.40    67.04     6.56    10.49     2.16     5.81    30.20    11.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        24   36   +3       0.25    51.58    -1.30    66.07     6.39     6.99     1.26     3.79    24.11     8.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       24   36   -2       3.37    68.68    -1.82    61.36     6.29    -5.19     0.21     0.68     7.43     1.85P    0.05R    0.00  
Blackpool            24   34   +4      -0.28    48.75     1.96    62.98     6.22     6.62     0.32     1.24    12.04     3.62P    0.02R    0.00  
Gillingham           25   34   +4      -0.14    49.84     4.01    60.74     6.10     5.03     0.12     0.42     6.04     1.55P    0.08R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           24   33   -4       1.44    58.59    -2.56    59.71     6.18    -4.72     0.05     0.29     4.31     1.06P    0.13R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         25   31   -2       0.49    53.36     3.50    58.12     6.31    -0.37     0.06     0.18     2.97     0.72P    0.37R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   25   29   -2      -1.86    40.72     3.51    53.95     6.11    -3.87     0.01     0.02     0.52     0.10P    1.53R    0.00  
Rochdale             25   28  -12       0.02    51.17    -1.40    48.93     5.88   -20.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    8.30R    0.01  
MK_Dons              25   25  -10      -4.39    28.12    -2.58    46.16     5.98   -17.73     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   16.63R    0.04  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   24   -8      -5.04    24.34    -0.16    45.86     5.90   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.43R    0.06  
Tranmere             24   22  -16      -1.66    41.53    -0.49    40.45     5.98   -30.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.37R    0.80  
Southend             25   10  -38     -13.25     1.76   -18.30    26.53     5.54   -55.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.38R   49.93  
Bolton               22    7  -30      -1.29    43.47   -13.91    26.30     6.17   -47.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.71R   49.16  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2020, Carlisle 0 3 Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          27   53  +20       8.51    86.53     8.88    85.37     6.18    29.45    42.25    80.00    98.59    84.79P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           26   50  +10       8.98    88.30     2.16    81.72     6.39    16.33    18.96    56.32    93.62    65.28P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       26   44  +20       4.08    70.34    13.71    75.16     6.35    25.52     3.97    21.95    74.51    34.60P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            25   44  +15       5.36    75.97     8.50    76.33     6.69    20.21     5.82    27.63    77.35    38.71P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         25   44  +14       1.49    57.50     1.63    81.47     6.66    26.76    20.18    58.20    93.30    68.88P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         26   44  +11       0.63    52.85    -0.14    76.33     6.44    18.14     5.00    26.24    77.05    41.23P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     27   44   +9       3.41    66.97     3.68    72.87     6.12    13.20     1.47    10.86    58.65    22.11P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      26   42   +7       2.81    64.51     1.84    71.21     6.39     9.68     0.97     7.91    47.16    16.65P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       26   41  +12      -0.83    45.80     3.05    71.60     6.39    16.72     1.29     9.60    51.80    20.85P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        26   38   +2       4.22    71.98     4.22    63.46     6.23    -0.49     0.03     0.54     9.75     2.21P    0.01R    0.01  
Newport_County   24   33   +1       0.63    53.91     1.28    62.87     6.62     1.00     0.05     0.59     9.55     2.51P    0.02R    0.02  
Walsall          27   33  -10      -3.68    32.08    -9.69    58.69     6.24   -10.19     0.00     0.05     2.10     0.54P    0.09R    0.09  
Crawley_Town     27   32   -2      -1.07    44.97     3.65    56.29     6.07    -4.82     0.00     0.02     0.84     0.17P    0.26R    0.26  
Salford_City     27   32   -5       2.26    62.89     6.15    52.78     5.98   -13.01     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P    1.11R    1.11  
Scunthorpe       27   31   -3      -9.15    12.61    -7.61    59.57     6.33     0.68     0.01     0.09     3.54     1.05P    0.07R    0.07  
Cambridge_Utd    27   31   -3      -1.34    43.51     3.30    54.46     5.98    -6.35     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.08P    0.48R    0.48  
Macclesfield     25   30   -3       1.78    61.05     5.12    52.29     6.18   -12.21     0.00     0.01     0.25     0.04P    1.39R    1.39  
Grimsby          25   30   -4      -0.51    48.05     0.61    54.01     6.21   -10.30     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.08P    0.65R    0.65  
Mansfield        27   27   -6     -12.89     4.56   -10.31    54.46     6.21    -3.94     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.13P    0.62R    0.62  
Leyton_Orient    26   27  -10      -1.30    44.21     1.30    48.74     6.22   -19.05     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     5.40R    5.40  
Oldham           26   27  -15      -6.44    19.57   -11.65    52.22     6.34   -18.21     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.06P    1.78R    1.78  
Carlisle         26   25  -20      -5.28    23.84   -11.86    49.65     6.25   -24.04     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    4.64R    4.64  
Morecambe        26   19  -24      -6.12    18.95    -8.16    38.86     5.89   -35.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.18R   57.18  
Stevenage        26   18  -16     -12.72     3.27    -9.69    42.37     6.19   -19.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.27R   26.27  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2020, Dover_Athletic 1 1 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             28   55  +27       7.75    83.33    13.72    83.88     6.06    33.34    48.79    95.09    59.99P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             30   52  +18      -1.59    41.78    -0.98    80.81     5.62    28.49    24.66    89.66    45.70P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   52  +10       4.90    71.96     1.09    75.80     5.70    12.67     5.80    61.68    16.90P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            30   50  +13       4.19    69.01     6.08    74.98     5.69    17.58     4.53    58.39    14.89P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       29   46  +15      -5.19    26.24    -2.32    76.52     5.87    26.01     8.91    70.47    29.04P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     28   45  +14      -0.23    48.80     3.89    75.37     6.01    22.39     6.05    61.89    20.69P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   45  +11       2.55    62.35     7.11    69.89     5.78    13.39     0.73    24.64     5.39P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport          30   45   -2       7.73    82.19     4.61    63.80     5.70    -7.16     0.04     4.15     0.62P    0.49R    0.00  
Woking             29   44   -2       8.29    83.82     4.62    63.95     5.86    -7.37     0.07     4.70     0.74P    0.53R    0.00  
Halifax            29   43   -3       6.37    79.17     1.28    65.86     5.75    -3.52     0.10     7.59     1.22P    0.20R    0.00  
Barnet             28   40   +6      -2.15    39.48     0.38    66.32     6.05     8.36     0.24    11.25     2.82P    0.14R    0.00  
Hartlepool         30   40   +1      -0.67    47.62     2.03    61.72     5.56     0.47     0.01     1.88     0.34P    1.05R    0.02  
Dover_Athletic     28   40   -2       1.35    57.17    -2.28    62.99     5.97    -4.63     0.06     3.65     0.71P    1.01R    0.00  
Sutton_United      30   39   +3      -2.48    38.74     2.59    62.12     5.64     4.76     0.01     2.30     0.47P    0.82R    0.01  
Torquay            30   38   -6       2.57    62.36     4.50    56.76     5.66   -11.65     0.00     0.26     0.04P    8.71R    0.20  
Eastleigh          28   37   -4       0.36    52.47    -0.88    60.72     5.99    -5.67     0.01     1.60     0.25P    2.62R    0.03  
Aldershot          29   37   -6       2.61    63.60     1.77    57.73     5.67    -9.74     0.00     0.37     0.08P    6.29R    0.14  
Maidenhead         30   35   -8       1.04    56.17     3.16    54.23     5.52   -12.26     0.00     0.07     0.01P   16.98R    0.59  
Dag_&_Red          30   33   -7      -6.25    22.44    -4.29    52.60     5.44   -10.36     0.00     0.01     0.00P   23.77R    0.82  
Wrexham            30   32   -6     -10.36    10.20    -7.97    53.61     5.55    -6.39     0.00     0.04     0.01P   18.09R    0.53  
AFC_Fylde          28   30  -11      -9.42    11.76   -12.37    56.39     6.11    -8.54     0.00     0.31     0.09P   11.22R    0.47  
Chesterfield       30   30  -14      -8.87    14.39   -10.17    50.78     5.61   -16.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.31R    2.73  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   25  -20     -10.18     9.99   -12.14    46.09     5.78   -23.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.76R   12.07  
Chorley            30   24  -27      -2.02    41.19    -3.43    37.66     5.11   -40.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.02R   82.39