Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 12 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 January 2020, Aston_Villa 1 6 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        21   61  +36      13.86    99.75     5.14   100.27     4.78    63.55    98.89   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   47  +37      -4.76    19.13    -2.30    83.85     4.64    64.53     1.10    93.24    99.67    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   45  +26       7.71    88.05    15.37    72.84     5.54    34.99     0.01     6.21    77.81    94.50    99.65     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   39  +10       0.17    50.40    -3.08    65.89     5.52    17.46     0.00     0.51    16.66    63.08    93.64     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   34  +11      -3.98    27.45    -0.68    60.60     5.43    17.82     0.00     0.04     3.74    23.20    75.90     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        22   32   +3       5.21    78.66     8.52    51.85     5.45    -0.07     0.00     0.00     0.10     1.36    14.91     0.14R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    22   31   +3       1.63    59.84     5.12    52.92     5.52     2.83     0.00     0.00     0.20     2.15    20.38     0.11R    0.00  
Tottenham        22   30   +5      -8.09    11.06    -6.92    58.43     5.54    14.98     0.00     0.01     1.66    13.29    61.49     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   22   29   -4       1.12    57.31    -0.45    48.39     5.29    -8.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23     4.57     1.18R    0.02  
Arsenal          22   28   -2      -6.08    18.57    -7.45    52.63     5.49     1.56     0.00     0.00     0.12     1.66    18.65     0.18R    0.01  
Everton          22   28   -7      -0.80    45.69    -3.89    49.28     5.46    -8.15     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.43     6.73     0.92R    0.01  
Southampton      22   28  -12       4.76    77.38     0.17    46.54     5.36   -18.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     2.27     3.61R    0.10  
Newcastle        22   26  -13       1.46    59.90    -4.17    44.82     5.25   -18.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.03     6.46R    0.30  
Brighton         22   24   -5       0.54    54.54     5.79    41.83     5.26   -11.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.30    14.15R    0.84  
Burnley          22   24  -13       0.97    57.58    -1.13    40.61     5.18   -22.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16    22.11R    1.65  
West_Ham         21   22   -8      -3.81    28.36    -2.85    40.82     5.41   -16.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.23    19.98R    1.64  
Watford          22   22  -14      -2.28    36.98    -3.65    38.66     5.20   -23.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    34.60R    3.62  
Aston_Villa      22   21  -15      -0.62    47.52     1.86    36.45     5.33   -26.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    52.09R    7.23  
Bournemouth      22   20  -15      -3.62    29.54    -3.48    36.78     5.18   -24.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    48.79R    6.95  
Norwich          22   14  -23      -4.93    21.78    -1.92    27.47     4.95   -39.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.68R   77.62  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 January 2020, Cardiff 0 0 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       27   53  +20       4.85    72.97     2.75    87.49     6.14    33.40    53.15    80.58    99.16    86.56P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    27   52  +20       6.38    79.53     7.33    85.10     6.12    30.64    32.53    68.66    98.13    77.51P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       27   46  +23      -0.56    46.74     8.52    78.88     6.21    33.17     9.06    26.96    88.07    47.46P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          27   45  +11       2.23    60.85     2.27    73.93     6.35    15.24     2.03     7.91    62.30    21.56P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   44   +9       5.87    77.92     5.26    73.65     6.35    12.40     1.71     7.11    59.72    18.49P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   42  +13       1.16    55.93     7.18    71.50     6.20    18.02     0.71     3.72    48.65    14.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         27   42   +2       2.61    63.63    -1.47    69.54     6.15     4.39     0.28     1.64    32.55     8.36P    0.02R    0.00  
Millwall        27   41   +2       5.66    77.30     4.20    65.87     6.13     0.40     0.06     0.46    15.11     3.02P    0.07R    0.00  
Bristol_City    27   41   +1       2.85    64.59    -0.46    67.56     6.23     1.70     0.13     0.87    22.22     5.07P    0.03R    0.00  
Preston         27   40   +4       1.48    57.75     1.69    67.39     6.22     5.85     0.17     0.90    22.96     5.64P    0.04R    0.00  
Hull            27   39   +5       0.49    52.70     2.95    66.17     6.25     6.56     0.09     0.54    17.87     4.13P    0.08R    0.00  
Cardiff         27   38   -2      -0.28    48.96    -3.81    65.13     6.37    -0.42     0.05     0.38    13.31     3.27P    0.20R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   37   +0       0.42    52.73     0.89    61.99     6.23    -1.64     0.02     0.11     5.72     1.21P    0.68R    0.03  
Reading         26   36   +5       2.33    62.88     7.87    61.90     6.30     2.90     0.01     0.11     6.19     1.26P    0.66R    0.01  
QPR             27   35   -6       2.78    64.96     2.60    57.96     6.19   -11.55     0.00     0.01     1.40     0.21P    3.65R    0.23  
Middlesbrough   27   34   -6      -3.83    30.89    -7.55    60.81     6.06    -4.51     0.00     0.03     3.55     0.94P    0.95R    0.05  
Derby           27   34   -8      -3.85    31.24    -9.40    59.46     6.18    -8.87     0.00     0.01     2.47     0.50P    1.79R    0.07  
Birmingham      27   32  -11      -0.16    49.97    -3.48    54.29     6.05   -16.90     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P    9.98R    0.75  
Charlton        27   29   -3      -4.49    29.16     2.39    53.21     6.16    -5.82     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P   12.26R    1.51  
Huddersfield    27   28  -13      -2.90    35.97    -3.90    49.02     5.98   -20.51     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   33.94R    5.78  
Stoke           27   25   -9      -9.31    10.88    -5.23    48.87     6.08   -12.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   32.35R    5.84  
Barnsley        27   24  -15      -7.25    17.56    -5.51    45.91     6.15   -21.98     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   54.34R   14.46  
Wigan           27   23  -17      -7.33    15.93    -7.43    44.64     5.90   -23.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.43R   18.97  
Luton           27   21  -25      -6.07    21.42    -7.65    40.35     5.99   -36.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.54R   52.30  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2020, Bristol_Rovers 0 2 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            25   44  +19       0.91    54.37     5.10    77.76     6.25    31.14    35.50    55.27    88.10    64.84P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              25   44   +6      10.56    92.81     7.14    70.55     6.13     6.79     4.72    11.56    48.11    17.51P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              24   41  +14       1.02    55.41     3.51    74.71     6.36    23.69    18.02    34.14    75.18    45.57P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             24   41   +9       5.27    77.32     4.75    68.84     6.34     9.86     3.33     8.73    38.67    14.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           24   39  +17       1.31    56.93     9.80    71.76     6.37    25.33     8.86    19.71    60.55    29.87P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           24   38  +11      -4.65    25.33    -4.06    72.06     6.36    21.00     9.33    20.35    61.21    33.65P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           24   38   +7      -1.54    41.33    -3.36    69.58     6.39    13.25     4.31    10.77    44.39    19.66P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            23   37  +13      -0.84    44.90     3.62    71.68     6.49    22.30     8.67    19.07    59.25    30.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         25   37  +10      -2.46    37.22     2.03    67.85     6.25    17.63     2.58     7.04    35.62    14.00P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       23   36   +7       0.53    53.21     1.13    67.20     6.61    10.70     2.51     6.49    31.22    12.30P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        24   36   +3       0.25    51.90    -1.40    66.10     6.37     7.05     1.41     3.97    24.11     8.50P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       24   36   -2       3.29    68.13    -1.91    61.38     6.26    -5.12     0.16     0.70     7.43     1.92P    0.05R    0.00  
Blackpool            24   34   +4      -0.38    48.19     1.81    63.03     6.25     6.64     0.36     1.29    12.38     3.78P    0.02R    0.00  
Gillingham           25   34   +4      -0.08    49.98     4.07    60.68     6.13     4.97     0.13     0.45     5.98     1.61P    0.08R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           24   33   -4       1.37    58.36    -2.66    59.83     6.16    -4.51     0.07     0.29     4.44     1.09P    0.14R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         25   31   -2       0.51    53.64     3.54    58.12     6.26    -0.37     0.03     0.14     2.77     0.61P    0.30R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   25   29   -2      -1.90    40.32     3.46    53.93     6.10    -3.89     0.00     0.02     0.50     0.12P    1.51R    0.00  
Rochdale             25   28  -12       0.13    51.86    -1.23    48.93     5.92   -20.60     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    8.23R    0.01  
MK_Dons              25   25  -10      -4.30    28.19    -2.43    46.11     5.95   -17.84     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   16.38R    0.08  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   24   -8      -4.94    24.46    -0.00    45.74     5.88   -14.36     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   16.75R    0.05  
Tranmere             24   22  -16      -1.61    41.86    -0.39    40.36     5.97   -30.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.54R    0.84  
Southend             25   10  -38     -13.21     1.87   -18.17    26.43     5.56   -56.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.38R   51.50  
Bolton               22    7  -30      -1.54    41.83   -14.35    26.56     6.18   -47.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.61R   47.52  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2020, Carlisle 0 3 Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          27   53  +20       8.41    86.12     8.77    85.32     6.21    29.41    42.63    79.71    98.51    84.47P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           26   50  +10       9.27    89.08     2.55    81.50     6.37    15.99    18.20    55.26    93.64    64.01P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       26   44  +20       4.04    70.23    13.66    75.27     6.36    25.71     4.21    22.77    74.66    35.25P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            25   44  +15       5.32    76.23     8.42    76.42     6.64    20.33     5.94    28.01    77.97    39.17P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         25   44  +14       1.49    57.33     1.62    81.50     6.60    26.84    20.38    58.59    93.49    69.41P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         26   44  +11       0.71    53.61     0.02    76.21     6.43    17.96     4.78    25.68    76.92    41.01P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     27   44   +9       3.35    67.04     3.60    72.91     6.09    13.26     1.41    11.27    58.76    22.55P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      26   42   +7       2.84    64.70     1.86    71.18     6.39     9.62     1.03     7.87    46.94    16.59P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       26   41  +12      -0.72    46.13     3.22    71.55     6.41    16.67     1.33     9.58    51.55    20.75P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        26   38   +2       4.35    72.55     4.42    63.35     6.19    -0.64     0.03     0.47     9.23     2.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   24   33   +1       0.66    54.15     1.31    62.95     6.60     1.07     0.05     0.62     9.63     2.47P    0.02R    0.02  
Walsall          27   33  -10      -3.81    31.33    -9.90    58.74     6.16   -10.10     0.00     0.03     2.04     0.48P    0.11R    0.11  
Crawley_Town     27   32   -2      -1.20    44.59     3.49    56.33     6.07    -4.75     0.00     0.01     0.88     0.18P    0.27R    0.27  
Salford_City     27   32   -5       2.17    62.45     6.00    52.87     6.02   -12.84     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P    1.12R    1.12  
Scunthorpe       27   31   -3      -9.34    12.11    -7.85    59.69     6.33     0.93     0.00     0.10     3.62     1.15P    0.07R    0.07  
Cambridge_Utd    27   31   -3      -1.39    43.51     3.27    54.51     6.05    -6.33     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.10P    0.55R    0.55  
Macclesfield     25   30   -3       1.74    60.74     5.09    52.24     6.15   -12.34     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.05P    1.40R    1.40  
Grimsby          25   30   -4      -0.32    49.13     0.87    53.98     6.21   -10.38     0.00     0.01     0.47     0.10P    0.75R    0.75  
Mansfield        27   27   -6     -13.01     4.38   -10.46    54.58     6.21    -3.80     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.15P    0.61R    0.61  
Leyton_Orient    26   27  -10      -1.36    43.98     1.18    48.79     6.19   -18.93     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    5.36R    5.36  
Oldham           26   27  -15      -6.38    19.53   -11.63    52.19     6.28   -18.28     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    1.86R    1.86  
Carlisle         26   25  -20      -5.26    24.12   -11.77    49.59     6.28   -24.19     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    4.73R    4.73  
Morecambe        26   19  -24      -6.20    18.82    -8.23    38.86     5.95   -35.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.95R   56.95  
Stevenage        26   18  -16     -12.59     3.30    -9.50    42.29     6.15   -19.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.19R   26.19  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2020, Dover_Athletic 1 1 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             28   55  +27       7.66    83.05    13.61    83.94     6.11    33.41    49.84    95.06    60.86P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             30   52  +18      -1.40    42.92    -0.62    80.67     5.65    28.29    24.01    89.17    44.66P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   52  +10       4.94    72.32     1.14    75.76     5.69    12.63     5.71    61.64    17.13P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            30   50  +13       4.18    68.98     6.02    75.04     5.69    17.63     4.61    58.76    15.53P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       29   46  +15      -5.31    25.48    -2.44    76.53     5.85    26.00     8.70    70.99    29.14P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     28   45  +14      -0.11    49.41     4.06    75.33     5.99    22.32     5.82    61.72    20.20P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   45  +11       2.61    62.94     7.19    69.88     5.85    13.39     0.80    24.80     5.47P    0.02R    0.00  
Stockport          30   45   -2       7.76    82.24     4.61    63.81     5.70    -7.15     0.04     4.13     0.59P    0.49R    0.00  
Woking             29   44   -2       8.11    83.51     4.30    64.12     5.86    -7.13     0.07     4.90     0.68P    0.58R    0.00  
Halifax            29   43   -3       6.31    78.97     1.31    65.78     5.73    -3.60     0.10     7.38     1.20P    0.22R    0.00  
Barnet             28   40   +6      -2.17    39.37     0.36    66.28     6.01     8.33     0.23    10.96     2.61P    0.15R    0.00  
Hartlepool         30   40   +1      -0.83    46.48     1.79    61.79     5.56     0.60     0.01     1.92     0.37P    1.01R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     28   40   -2       1.15    55.98    -2.53    63.09     6.02    -4.47     0.04     3.87     0.71P    0.98R    0.00  
Sutton_United      30   39   +3      -2.40    38.88     2.74    62.03     5.64     4.59     0.01     2.17     0.45P    0.95R    0.01  
Torquay            30   38   -6       2.51    62.14     4.33    56.80     5.68   -11.52     0.00     0.28     0.03P    8.70R    0.20  
Eastleigh          28   37   -4       0.54    53.27    -0.57    60.59     5.99    -5.88     0.01     1.52     0.23P    2.70R    0.06  
Aldershot          29   37   -6       2.64    63.73     1.82    57.79     5.64    -9.68     0.00     0.37     0.06P    5.94R    0.14  
Maidenhead         30   35   -8       0.98    55.84     3.09    54.24     5.51   -12.25     0.00     0.03     0.01P   17.16R    0.61  
Dag_&_Red          30   33   -7      -6.20    22.77    -4.21    52.54     5.45   -10.41     0.00     0.02     0.00    24.52R    0.87  
Wrexham            30   32   -6     -10.23    10.49    -7.82    53.59     5.57    -6.41     0.00     0.03     0.01P   18.14R    0.56  
AFC_Fylde          28   30  -11      -9.25    12.11   -12.09    56.26     6.06    -8.72     0.00     0.26     0.05P   11.36R    0.47  
Chesterfield       30   30  -14      -8.96    13.99   -10.32    50.78     5.59   -16.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.82R    2.80  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   25  -20     -10.16    10.20   -12.14    46.09     5.79   -23.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.33R   12.57  
Chorley            30   24  -27      -2.13    40.47    -3.63    37.77     5.12   -39.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.93R   81.70