Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 11 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2020, Chelsea 3 0 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        21   61  +36      13.93    99.76     5.18   100.24     4.80    63.48    99.11    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        22   45  +26       7.67    87.69    15.21    72.90     5.56    35.05     0.00     8.36    78.24    94.71    99.69     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   44  +32      -4.56    20.08    -3.15    82.99     4.85    60.61     0.89    90.86    99.33    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   39  +10       0.08    50.08    -3.17    65.89     5.49    17.51     0.00     0.73    16.61    63.60    93.72     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   34  +11      -3.91    27.76    -0.58    60.52     5.41    17.73     0.00     0.04     3.77    22.62    75.64     0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        22   32   +3       5.13    78.41     8.44    51.84     5.45    -0.06     0.00     0.00     0.11     1.41    14.93     0.17R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    22   31   +3       1.59    59.98     5.01    52.78     5.50     2.66     0.00     0.00     0.16     2.05    19.75     0.13R    0.00  
Tottenham        22   30   +5      -7.96    11.42    -6.71    58.36     5.54    14.83     0.00     0.01     1.59    13.17    61.39     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   22   29   -4       1.21    57.76    -0.43    48.35     5.28    -8.35     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.22     4.63     1.31R    0.02  
Arsenal          22   28   -2      -6.08    18.47    -7.50    52.68     5.49     1.70     0.00     0.00     0.14     1.72    19.01     0.20R    0.00  
Everton          22   28   -7      -0.89    44.99    -4.01    49.29     5.48    -8.18     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.43     6.86     1.03R    0.02  
Southampton      22   28  -12       4.81    77.84     0.23    46.51     5.35   -18.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     2.34     3.88R    0.14  
Newcastle        22   26  -13       1.48    59.93    -4.10    44.81     5.27   -18.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.06     6.62R    0.27  
Brighton         22   24   -5       0.56    54.52     5.82    41.78     5.25   -11.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.37    14.55R    0.82  
Burnley          22   24  -13       0.95    56.96    -1.23    40.69     5.19   -22.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14    22.18R    1.62  
West_Ham         21   22   -8      -3.74    28.89    -2.80    40.90     5.39   -16.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26    20.42R    1.56  
Aston_Villa      21   21  -10      -0.94    45.42     3.02    37.24     5.43   -22.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    46.31R    5.47  
Bournemouth      21   20  -12      -3.00    32.31    -1.89    39.00     5.48   -20.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    32.60R    3.57  
Watford          21   19  -17      -3.16    31.34    -5.40    36.19     5.36   -27.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    54.85R    9.48  
Norwich          22   14  -23      -4.94    21.81    -1.94    27.50     4.95   -39.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.75R   77.02  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2020, Barnsley 2 1 Huddersfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       27   53  +20       4.78    72.67     2.68    87.43     6.10    33.29    52.69    80.50    99.11    86.42P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    27   52  +20       6.36    79.08     7.25    85.11     6.09    30.72    33.03    68.66    98.15    77.67P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       27   46  +23      -0.39    47.68     8.79    78.78     6.17    33.02     8.79    26.96    87.23    46.97P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          27   45  +11       2.26    61.31     2.34    73.90     6.34    15.20     2.11     7.80    61.66    21.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   26   44   +9       5.91    78.17     5.32    73.58     6.29    12.33     1.69     6.68    58.73    17.94P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   42  +13       1.18    55.87     7.19    71.55     6.23    18.11     0.78     3.75    48.30    14.83P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall        27   41   +2       5.87    78.09     4.52    65.80     6.10     0.31     0.04     0.37    14.49     2.79P    0.07R    0.00  
Swansea         26   41   +2       2.98    65.20    -1.43    69.60     6.37     3.96     0.38     1.97    32.82     8.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_City    27   41   +1       2.72    63.73    -0.69    67.69     6.24     1.86     0.15     0.92    23.05     5.45P    0.02R    0.00  
Preston         27   40   +4       1.56    58.22     1.83    67.35     6.22     5.79     0.13     0.81    22.21     5.40P    0.05R    0.00  
Hull            27   39   +5       0.19    51.34     2.52    66.36     6.25     6.88     0.09     0.59    18.21     4.31P    0.07R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   37   +0       0.39    52.44     0.85    61.97     6.22    -1.67     0.01     0.09     5.64     1.14P    0.59R    0.01  
Cardiff         26   37   -2      -0.03    50.26    -4.01    65.90     6.65     0.12     0.09     0.69    16.67     4.17P    0.19R    0.01  
Reading         26   36   +5       2.18    62.04     7.61    62.04     6.31     3.09     0.01     0.15     6.21     1.28P    0.64R    0.01  
QPR             27   35   -6       2.71    64.62     2.54    58.03     6.17   -11.44     0.00     0.01     1.39     0.20P    3.30R    0.21  
Middlesbrough   27   34   -6      -3.67    31.77    -7.32    60.63     6.10    -4.74     0.01     0.04     3.30     0.82P    1.14R    0.04  
Derby           27   34   -8      -3.84    31.16    -9.43    59.43     6.16    -8.94     0.00     0.02     2.25     0.53P    1.86R    0.08  
Birmingham      27   32  -11      -0.27    49.46    -3.62    54.33     6.07   -16.86     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.04P   10.06R    0.76  
Charlton        27   29   -3      -4.40    28.89     2.56    53.13     6.18    -5.97     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P   12.64R    1.49  
Huddersfield    27   28  -13      -2.96    35.66    -3.93    49.09     5.98   -20.47     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   33.43R    5.56  
Stoke           27   25   -9      -9.43    10.43    -5.30    48.91     6.07   -12.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   32.17R    5.57  
Barnsley        27   24  -15      -7.09    18.18    -5.22    45.79     6.18   -22.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   55.21R   15.02  
Wigan           27   23  -17      -7.40    15.74    -7.50    44.67     5.91   -23.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.92R   18.95  
Luton           27   21  -25      -6.03    21.55    -7.56    40.34     5.97   -36.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.61R   52.29  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2020, Bristol_Rovers 0 2 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Rotherham            25   44  +19       0.81    53.69     4.91    77.83     6.23    31.26    36.01    55.41    88.41    65.07P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              25   44   +6      10.42    92.46     6.93    70.63     6.15     6.90     4.87    12.00    48.09    17.79P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              24   41  +14       1.19    56.21     3.77    74.57     6.39    23.50    17.58    33.42    74.52    45.22P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             24   41   +9       5.38    77.71     4.91    68.78     6.34     9.73     3.29     8.32    38.20    14.15P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           24   39  +17       1.38    57.72     9.91    71.67     6.38    25.22     8.53    19.35    59.99    29.24P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           24   38  +11      -4.75    24.77    -4.25    72.17     6.36    21.14     9.24    20.90    61.68    34.34P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           24   38   +7      -1.61    41.20    -3.51    69.62     6.45    13.32     4.54    11.21    44.84    20.04P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            23   37  +13      -0.93    44.73     3.45    71.84     6.45    22.58     9.04    19.78    60.14    30.89P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         25   37  +10      -2.43    37.02     2.12    67.94     6.16    17.72     2.52     6.83    35.72    14.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       23   36   +7       0.57    53.04     1.15    67.20     6.56    10.73     2.28     6.16    30.81    11.91P    0.01R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        24   36   +3       0.21    51.29    -1.43    66.17     6.39     7.12     1.31     3.80    24.67     8.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       24   36   -2       3.37    68.55    -1.85    61.36     6.28    -5.16     0.21     0.76     7.47     1.98P    0.05R    0.00  
Blackpool            24   34   +4      -0.11    49.55     2.23    62.83     6.22     6.42     0.34     1.18    11.60     3.33P    0.02R    0.00  
Gillingham           25   34   +4      -0.13    49.80     4.03    60.73     6.09     5.03     0.12     0.44     6.03     1.58P    0.07R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           24   33   -4       1.39    58.33    -2.65    59.80     6.18    -4.58     0.07     0.28     4.39     1.09P    0.17R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         25   31   -2       0.37    52.76     3.37    58.15     6.29    -0.34     0.02     0.14     2.85     0.66P    0.32R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   25   29   -2      -1.99    39.97     3.28    53.93     6.08    -3.88     0.00     0.01     0.52     0.10P    1.41R    0.00  
Rochdale             25   28  -12       0.03    51.39    -1.44    48.95     5.91   -20.57     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    8.23R    0.02  
MK_Dons              25   25  -10      -4.41    28.04    -2.56    46.17     6.01   -17.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    16.27R    0.05  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   24   -8      -4.99    24.37    -0.07    45.78     5.87   -14.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.65R    0.05  
Tranmere             24   22  -16      -1.65    41.72    -0.48    40.39     5.96   -30.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.69R    0.76  
Southend             25   10  -38     -13.11     1.88   -17.96    26.44     5.54   -56.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.42R   50.37  
Bolton               22    7  -30      -1.30    43.26   -13.88    26.27     6.17   -47.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.68R   48.76  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2020, Carlisle 0 3 Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          27   53  +20       8.50    86.37     8.91    85.30     6.19    29.33    42.30    79.78    98.49    84.58P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           26   50  +10       9.08    88.59     2.29    81.61     6.36    16.18    18.49    55.86    93.55    64.74P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       26   44  +20       3.99    70.08    13.57    75.27     6.35    25.70     4.24    22.58    74.74    35.14P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            25   44  +15       5.19    75.48     8.29    76.46     6.62    20.41     5.98    27.93    78.10    39.07P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         25   44  +14       1.49    57.62     1.64    81.44     6.65    26.73    20.41    58.49    93.26    69.12P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         26   44  +11       0.75    53.92     0.08    76.25     6.43    18.02     4.79    25.81    76.97    40.65P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     27   44   +9       3.35    67.11     3.58    72.92     6.07    13.27     1.39    11.15    58.96    22.38P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      26   42   +7       2.99    65.48     2.05    71.05     6.41     9.44     1.03     7.51    46.13    16.02P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       26   41  +12      -0.85    45.31     3.00    71.65     6.39    16.78     1.29     9.73    52.10    21.58P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        26   38   +2       4.49    73.08     4.59    63.25     6.23    -0.82     0.04     0.47     9.39     2.05P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   24   33   +1       0.76    54.86     1.42    62.82     6.64     0.93     0.03     0.54     9.50     2.43P    0.02R    0.02  
Walsall          27   33  -10      -3.69    32.06    -9.71    58.73     6.20   -10.15     0.00     0.04     2.09     0.50P    0.10R    0.10  
Crawley_Town     27   32   -2      -1.12    45.27     3.61    56.30     6.08    -4.81     0.00     0.01     0.94     0.17P    0.22R    0.22  
Salford_City     27   32   -5       2.31    62.84     6.21    52.82     6.01   -12.97     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    1.07R    1.07  
Scunthorpe       27   31   -3      -9.36    11.90    -7.87    59.68     6.28     0.86     0.01     0.10     3.62     1.12P    0.08R    0.08  
Cambridge_Utd    27   31   -3      -1.43    43.17     3.22    54.44     5.99    -6.38     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.06P    0.54R    0.54  
Macclesfield     25   30   -3       1.76    60.84     5.11    52.20     6.16   -12.34     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    1.44R    1.44  
Grimsby          25   30   -4      -0.53    47.95     0.60    54.09     6.19   -10.18     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.08P    0.69R    0.69  
Mansfield        27   27   -6     -13.00     4.53   -10.43    54.59     6.30    -3.79     0.00     0.01     0.58     0.17P    0.71R    0.71  
Leyton_Orient    26   27  -10      -1.46    43.31     1.05    48.94     6.20   -18.71     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    4.89R    4.89  
Oldham           26   27  -15      -6.48    19.50   -11.71    52.28     6.32   -18.10     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    1.85R    1.85  
Carlisle         26   25  -20      -5.22    24.10   -11.74    49.59     6.27   -24.16     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    4.83R    4.83  
Morecambe        26   19  -24      -6.27    18.57    -8.34    38.96     5.92   -35.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.24R   56.24  
Stevenage        26   18  -16     -12.49     3.47    -9.41    42.13     6.12   -20.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.31R   27.31  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 January 2020, Dover_Athletic 1 1 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             28   55  +27       7.62    82.92    13.54    83.93     6.07    33.41    49.33    95.20    60.40P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             30   52  +18      -1.56    42.01    -0.93    80.77     5.60    28.43    24.42    89.87    45.50P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   52  +10       4.97    72.20     1.19    75.74     5.71    12.58     5.71    61.16    16.65P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            30   50  +13       4.21    68.97     6.09    74.97     5.74    17.54     4.55    57.99    15.16P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       29   46  +15      -5.15    26.32    -2.24    76.38     5.85    25.81     8.48    70.06    28.29P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     28   45  +14      -0.35    48.00     3.73    75.46     6.03    22.54     6.31    62.72    21.22P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   45  +11       2.60    62.62     7.21    69.91     5.80    13.41     0.71    24.92     5.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Stockport          30   45   -2       7.83    82.16     4.75    63.75     5.68    -7.23     0.04     4.06     0.56P    0.48R    0.00  
Woking             29   44   -2       8.38    84.07     4.75    63.96     5.86    -7.42     0.06     4.70     0.69P    0.58R    0.00  
Halifax            29   43   -3       6.51    79.53     1.52    65.68     5.77    -3.77     0.08     7.22     1.18P    0.22R    0.00  
Barnet             28   40   +6      -2.21    39.21     0.37    66.25     6.03     8.30     0.25    11.11     2.71P    0.13R    0.00  
Hartlepool         30   40   +1      -0.70    47.12     1.99    61.79     5.55     0.58     0.00     2.00     0.37P    1.05R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     28   40   -2       1.04    55.64    -2.70    63.15     6.03    -4.39     0.05     4.04     0.73P    0.94R    0.01  
Sutton_United      30   39   +3      -2.50    38.33     2.58    62.07     5.65     4.69     0.00     2.32     0.44P    0.92R    0.01  
Torquay            30   38   -6       2.30    61.23     3.91    56.90     5.65   -11.33     0.00     0.25     0.03P    8.37R    0.22  
Eastleigh          28   37   -4       0.49    52.67    -0.68    60.67     6.05    -5.76     0.01     1.71     0.31P    2.84R    0.03  
Aldershot          29   37   -6       2.77    64.22     2.01    57.68     5.64    -9.82     0.00     0.33     0.06P    6.34R    0.14  
Maidenhead         30   35   -8       0.89    55.45     2.95    54.38     5.53   -12.05     0.00     0.05     0.01P   16.52R    0.56  
Dag_&_Red          30   33   -7      -6.18    22.97    -4.18    52.61     5.49   -10.35     0.00     0.03     0.01P   24.25R    0.82  
Wrexham            30   32   -6     -10.21    10.67    -7.79    53.59     5.54    -6.44     0.00     0.02     0.01P   18.17R    0.59  
AFC_Fylde          28   30  -11      -9.29    12.11   -12.10    56.28     6.14    -8.71     0.00     0.23     0.06P   11.68R    0.54  
Chesterfield       30   30  -14      -8.85    14.22   -10.14    50.69     5.58   -16.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.85R    2.73  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   25  -20     -10.30     9.86   -12.39    46.20     5.84   -23.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.55R   11.94  
Chorley            30   24  -27      -2.05    40.73    -3.47    37.69     5.07   -40.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.10R   82.40