Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 10 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 10 January 2020, Sheff_Utd 1 0 West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        20   58  +35      12.68    99.63     4.61    99.13     5.10    63.46    98.25    99.94   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        21   45  +27       9.26    92.78    16.53    75.44     5.72    37.94     0.08    14.81    88.22    97.47    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   44  +32      -4.76    19.05    -3.58    83.09     4.86    60.84     1.67    84.80    99.38    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   36   +7      -0.28    47.89    -4.19    64.67     5.70    15.01     0.00     0.38     8.48    55.28    89.91     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        22   32   +3       5.28    78.92     8.66    51.73     5.45    -0.23     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.57    14.69     0.18R    0.00  
Man_Utd          21   31   +7      -4.05    27.06    -2.05    59.50     5.64    14.75     0.00     0.04     1.82    19.46    68.17     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham        21   30   +6      -7.15    13.28    -6.64    59.38     5.74    15.26     0.00     0.03     1.71    19.46    66.83     0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    21   30   +3       2.23    63.97     5.40    53.57     5.70     3.23     0.00     0.00     0.17     3.30    24.42     0.11R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   21   28   -4       1.38    59.21    -0.58    48.59     5.49    -8.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.41     5.72     1.36R    0.03  
Arsenal          21   27   -2      -5.54    20.07    -7.21    53.12     5.72     1.78     0.00     0.00     0.14     2.63    21.95     0.24R    0.00  
Everton          21   25   -8      -1.91    38.94    -4.07    47.84     5.70    -8.99     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.34     4.86     2.38R    0.10  
Southampton      21   25  -13       3.10    69.77    -0.82    43.65     5.49   -21.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.81    10.98R    0.84  
Newcastle        21   25  -13       1.61    61.14    -4.37    44.79     5.46   -18.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.24     7.58R    0.49  
Brighton         21   24   -4       1.37    59.77     6.11    42.94     5.42   -10.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.67    11.26R    0.80  
Burnley          21   24  -10       1.18    58.42    -0.07    41.62     5.34   -20.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.37    17.90R    1.53  
West_Ham         21   22   -8      -3.62    29.73    -2.58    40.79     5.41   -17.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.27    21.15R    2.30  
Aston_Villa      21   21  -10      -0.90    45.64     3.03    37.35     5.45   -22.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    45.69R    7.06  
Bournemouth      21   20  -12      -3.02    32.49    -1.86    38.99     5.49   -20.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14    32.92R    4.68  
Watford          21   19  -17      -3.23    30.67    -5.47    36.26     5.35   -27.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    55.03R   11.37  
Norwich          21   14  -19      -5.10    21.03    -0.85    28.50     5.19   -36.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.22R   70.78  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 2 January 2020, Derby 2 1 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    26   52  +22       7.19    83.02     8.38    87.56     6.25    34.32    42.41    80.62    99.20    86.56P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       26   52  +20       5.34    75.80     2.89    88.34     6.32    34.15    48.93    82.93    99.30    88.17P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       26   43  +21      -1.01    44.55     8.41    77.61     6.41    31.82     5.11    18.51    83.63    40.66P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   25   43   +9       6.35    80.32     5.45    74.04     6.56    12.44     1.62     6.91    62.97    19.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          26   42  +10       0.82    54.22     1.59    72.02     6.52    13.82     0.83     4.13    52.07    16.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         26   41   +2       2.88    64.84    -1.59    69.62     6.38     3.94     0.31     1.66    35.04     9.02P    0.02R    0.00  
Millwall        26   40   +2       6.04    79.20     4.35    66.07     6.31     0.10     0.05     0.44    17.41     3.37P    0.10R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       26   39  +11      -0.11    49.74     5.72    69.03     6.38    14.76     0.28     1.62    34.87     9.82P    0.02R    0.00  
Hull            26   39   +6       1.39    57.55     3.27    67.93     6.44     8.14     0.17     1.06    27.96     6.88P    0.04R    0.00  
Preston         26   39   +4       1.72    59.22     1.52    67.63     6.45     5.67     0.11     0.86    25.94     6.33P    0.06R    0.00  
Bristol_City    26   38   -1       1.64    58.65    -1.79    65.72     6.44    -0.67     0.06     0.38    16.67     3.77P    0.18R    0.00  
Cardiff         26   37   -2      -0.01    50.22    -3.88    65.89     6.61     0.05     0.09     0.55    17.99     4.32P    0.20R    0.01  
Blackburn       26   36   +0       0.86    55.06     1.06    62.54     6.43    -1.38     0.01     0.10     7.86     1.61P    0.65R    0.03  
Reading         25   35   +5       2.69    64.81     7.87    62.35     6.47     2.98     0.02     0.12     8.08     1.55P    0.74R    0.04  
QPR             26   35   -4       3.12    66.57     2.85    58.92     6.38   -10.29     0.01     0.03     2.53     0.41P    3.19R    0.23  
Middlesbrough   26   33   -6      -3.18    33.55    -7.16    61.27     6.28    -4.36     0.01     0.05     4.90     1.18P    1.09R    0.06  
Derby           26   33   -8      -3.64    31.59    -9.60    59.50     6.33    -9.27     0.00     0.02     2.96     0.67P    2.12R    0.12  
Birmingham      26   29  -12      -1.59    42.21    -4.11    52.51     6.27   -18.22     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   18.25R    2.75  
Charlton        26   28   -3      -4.11    30.06     2.34    52.96     6.37    -6.78     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P   15.19R    2.11  
Huddersfield    26   28  -12      -2.09    39.88    -3.64    50.39     6.23   -19.58     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   28.34R    5.08  
Stoke           26   24   -9      -8.88    11.39    -4.99    49.39     6.30   -12.09     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.02P   31.75R    6.55  
Wigan           26   23  -15      -6.48    18.73    -6.14    46.23     6.13   -21.19     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   53.84R   15.22  
Barnsley        26   21  -16      -8.31    13.44    -5.61    44.26     6.36   -23.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.48R   25.16  
Luton           26   21  -24      -5.06    25.46    -7.19    42.11     6.28   -35.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.73R   42.65  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 January 2020, Doncaster 2 0 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Wycombe              24   44  +10      10.40    92.88     8.75    72.17     6.31    11.17     9.45    19.56    58.71    26.14P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            24   41  +17      -0.11    49.05     4.08    75.47     6.46    28.05    24.99    41.80    79.23    52.52P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             23   40   +9       5.92    80.50     5.09    69.89     6.56    10.79     5.68    12.71    45.48    19.32P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   39  +19       2.14    61.94    10.91    73.73     6.61    28.30    17.60    31.84    70.82    41.99P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              23   38  +11       0.79    54.16     2.59    73.00     6.58    20.53    13.72    26.44    66.04    37.69P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         24   36  +10      -1.98    39.40     2.11    68.91     6.41    18.84     4.42    10.81    42.60    18.87P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       22   36   +8       1.64    59.13     1.67    68.44     6.80    11.59     4.33     9.82    38.43    16.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       23   36   +0       4.18    72.95    -0.69    63.08     6.50    -2.59     0.61     1.77    12.49     3.80P    0.04R    0.00  
Sunderland           23   35   +7      -4.98    23.47    -6.06    70.27     6.57    16.71     6.71    14.90    49.86    26.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Portsmouth           23   35   +6      -2.58    35.56    -3.50    68.68     6.62    13.37     4.25    10.24    39.66    18.43P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            22   34  +11      -1.97    38.74     2.36    69.88     6.74    20.06     6.38    14.21    48.31    23.56P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            24   34   +4      -0.42    47.99     1.68    63.14     6.30     6.83     0.46     1.60    12.78     4.21P    0.03R    0.00  
Gillingham           24   33   +4       0.01    50.52     3.60    60.58     6.32     4.20     0.13     0.57     6.49     1.81P    0.09R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        23   33   +2      -1.03    44.41    -1.85    64.50     6.60     6.11     1.04     2.97    18.58     6.57P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           23   32   -4       1.85    61.47    -2.51    60.39     6.40    -4.26     0.16     0.51     5.93     1.55P    0.15R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         24   30   -2       0.68    54.70     3.25    58.14     6.53    -0.81     0.05     0.21     3.42     0.81P    0.35R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   29   +1      -1.74    40.92     4.47    55.22     6.26    -0.90     0.01     0.04     1.12     0.23P    0.88R    0.00  
Rochdale             24   25  -14      -0.75    46.98    -2.04    47.56     6.10   -22.16     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    12.68R    0.09  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   24   -7      -4.21    27.57    -0.05    46.54     6.05   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   14.54R    0.08  
MK_Dons              24   24  -10      -4.17    28.47    -2.71    45.77     6.12   -18.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   18.54R    0.10  
Tranmere             23   21  -16      -1.35    43.24    -0.39    40.57     6.26   -31.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.34R    1.51  
Southend             24    9  -38     -12.62     2.02   -17.55    27.00     5.81   -55.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.90R   52.90  
Bolton               21    7  -28      -0.75    46.51   -13.21    27.59     6.43   -45.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.44R   45.32  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2020, Cheltenham 3 0 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          26   50  +18       7.71    84.55     8.12    83.61     6.42    27.23    36.31    73.31    97.30    79.31P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           25   47   +8       8.33    86.89     1.53    80.07     6.58    14.31    16.29    49.71    90.94    59.52P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            24   44  +17       6.06    79.19     9.43    77.88     6.82    22.44    11.90    39.64    85.10    49.77P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         25   44  +12       1.88    59.60     0.74    78.22     6.62    19.87    11.16    40.09    86.25    53.73P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       25   41  +18       3.20    66.54    12.84    73.42     6.57    23.43     3.45    18.00    67.46    29.54P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         24   41  +11       1.19    56.11     0.63    79.41     6.92    23.12    16.24    48.80    89.26    60.23P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     26   41   +8       2.08    61.24     3.04    70.81     6.24    11.64     1.00     7.87    49.15    17.87P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       25   40  +12      -0.15    49.23     3.46    72.53     6.58    17.51     2.68    14.67    61.16    27.25P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      25   39   +6       1.69    59.07     1.50    69.61     6.60     8.76     0.90     6.56    41.50    14.72P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale        25   35   +1       2.96    66.19     3.80    61.43     6.35    -2.04     0.02     0.35     6.99     1.45P    0.04R    0.04  
Walsall          26   33   -8      -2.97    35.21    -8.68    60.06     6.40    -8.11     0.01     0.16     4.59     1.19P    0.08R    0.08  
Salford_City     26   32   -4       3.05    66.65     6.20    54.30     6.25   -11.70     0.00     0.02     0.64     0.11P    0.94R    0.94  
Cambridge_Utd    26   31   -1      -0.88    46.07     3.94    55.60     6.19    -4.60     0.00     0.01     1.13     0.24P    0.45R    0.45  
Scunthorpe       26   31   -2      -8.21    14.63    -7.26    61.61     6.52     2.72     0.02     0.39     8.35     2.58P    0.04R    0.04  
Newport_County   23   30   +0      -0.89    45.63     0.36    60.54     6.78    -0.91     0.02     0.34     6.27     1.60P    0.08R    0.08  
Crawley_Town     26   29   -3      -2.69    36.77     2.72    54.19     6.30    -6.51     0.00     0.02     0.60     0.12P    0.95R    0.95  
Macclesfield     24   29   -3       2.20    63.46     5.22    52.47     6.40   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.05P    1.83R    1.83  
Grimsby          24   29   -4      -0.27    49.11     0.46    54.57     6.41   -10.03     0.00     0.02     0.80     0.15P    0.88R    0.88  
Mansfield        26   27   -5     -11.88     5.56    -9.85    56.24     6.40    -2.28     0.00     0.04     1.48     0.44P    0.43R    0.43  
Leyton_Orient    25   26  -10      -1.03    45.76     1.15    49.32     6.41   -18.65     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.03P    5.38R    5.38  
Oldham           25   26  -15      -6.05    20.47   -11.66    52.59     6.52   -18.18     0.00     0.01     0.37     0.08P    2.01R    2.01  
Carlisle         25   25  -17      -4.83    25.45   -10.29    51.16     6.45   -20.81     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.02P    3.48R    3.48  
Stevenage        25   18  -15     -11.52     4.36    -8.97    43.89     6.29   -18.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.18R   20.18  
Morecambe        25   18  -24      -5.99    19.00    -8.44    38.58     6.07   -36.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.22R   63.22  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 January 2020, Hartlepool 2 1 Eastleigh; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             28   55  +27       7.75    83.19    13.73    83.87     6.09    33.35    48.93    94.82    59.94P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             30   52  +18      -1.51    42.51    -0.82    80.82     5.61    28.47    24.58    89.64    45.11P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   52  +10       4.93    72.18     1.14    75.75     5.72    12.59     5.95    61.24    17.33P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            30   50  +13       4.08    68.84     5.93    75.04     5.68    17.63     4.56    58.60    15.30P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County       29   46  +15      -5.29    25.81    -2.43    76.49     5.87    25.98     8.72    70.25    28.84P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     28   45  +14      -0.14    49.30     4.00    75.29     6.01    22.28     5.95    61.55    20.51P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   45  +11       2.74    63.35     7.38    69.85     5.83    13.34     0.78    24.60     5.53P    0.01R    0.00  
Stockport          30   45   -2       7.62    81.84     4.46    63.89     5.68    -7.02     0.04     4.08     0.64P    0.45R    0.00  
Woking             29   44   -2       8.15    83.54     4.40    64.03     5.81    -7.28     0.05     4.53     0.67P    0.55R    0.00  
Halifax            29   43   -3       6.34    79.15     1.28    65.84     5.77    -3.54     0.08     7.37     1.19P    0.23R    0.00  
Barnet             28   40   +6      -2.12    39.70     0.44    66.32     6.05     8.38     0.23    11.16     2.63P    0.14R    0.00  
Sutton_United      30   39   +3      -2.34    39.13     2.81    61.99     5.65     4.55     0.01     2.15     0.43P    0.90R    0.01  
Hartlepool         29   39   +1      -0.48    48.33     1.80    61.95     5.75     0.26     0.01     2.36     0.44P    1.11R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     27   39   -2       1.51    57.81    -2.55    63.68     6.22    -4.17     0.09     4.98     1.01P    0.94R    0.01  
Torquay            30   38   -6       2.29    61.49     3.98    56.91     5.65   -11.31     0.00     0.26     0.04P    8.24R    0.24  
Eastleigh          28   37   -4       0.62    53.67    -0.50    60.54     6.04    -5.98     0.01     1.64     0.26P    2.84R    0.05  
Aldershot          29   37   -6       2.66    63.97     1.87    57.76     5.68    -9.72     0.00     0.38     0.05P    6.42R    0.13  
Maidenhead         30   35   -8       0.99    55.78     3.05    54.29     5.50   -12.16     0.00     0.04     0.00P   16.84R    0.60  
Dag_&_Red          30   33   -7      -6.08    23.03    -4.04    52.49     5.41   -10.50     0.00     0.01     0.00    24.52R    0.88  
Wrexham            30   32   -6     -10.28    10.22    -7.90    53.58     5.55    -6.43     0.00     0.02     0.00P   17.93R    0.56  
AFC_Fylde          28   30  -11      -9.25    12.29   -12.11    56.31     6.14    -8.68     0.00     0.30     0.08P   11.43R    0.47  
Chesterfield       30   30  -14      -8.83    14.04   -10.09    50.72     5.58   -16.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.53R    2.80  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   25  -20     -10.30    10.03   -12.33    46.16     5.81   -23.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.80R   11.93  
Chorley            30   24  -27      -2.10    40.80    -3.52    37.74     5.08   -39.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.12R   82.30