Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 9 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 2 January 2020, Liverpool 2 0 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        20   58  +35      12.77    99.60     4.82    99.06     5.07    63.31    98.26    99.95   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        21   45  +27       9.19    92.59    16.44    75.50     5.73    38.04     0.10    15.13    88.58    97.65    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   44  +32      -4.69    19.39    -3.51    83.07     4.86    60.75     1.64    84.54    99.33    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   36   +7      -0.19    48.24    -4.06    64.60     5.70    14.96     0.00     0.33     8.37    54.84    89.83     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   31   +7      -3.93    27.59    -1.86    59.39     5.65    14.52     0.00     0.03     1.66    19.24    67.90     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham        21   30   +6      -7.19    13.25    -6.71    59.40     5.74    15.30     0.00     0.03     1.73    20.03    68.00     0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    21   30   +3       2.06    62.71     5.18    53.67     5.73     3.37     0.00     0.00     0.15     3.50    25.89     0.10R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        21   29   +2       3.93    73.57     8.21    50.19     5.69    -1.17     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.08    10.74     0.68R    0.02  
Crystal_Palace   21   28   -4       1.41    59.20    -0.52    48.57     5.50    -8.62     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.41     5.75     1.49R    0.03  
Arsenal          21   27   -2      -5.48    20.55    -7.12    53.11     5.73     1.77     0.00     0.00     0.13     2.79    22.53     0.22R    0.00  
Everton          21   25   -8      -1.97    38.52    -4.20    47.94     5.70    -8.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.34     5.29     2.38R    0.11  
Southampton      21   25  -13       3.05    69.49    -0.92    43.65     5.47   -21.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.91    11.32R    0.81  
Newcastle        21   25  -13       1.55    60.79    -4.49    44.77     5.51   -18.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.43     7.87R    0.45  
Brighton         21   24   -4       1.37    59.93     6.08    42.96     5.49   -10.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.71    11.64R    0.80  
Burnley          21   24  -10       1.15    58.20    -0.15    41.67     5.36   -19.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.38    17.96R    1.52  
West_Ham         20   22   -7      -2.59    35.13    -2.04    42.15     5.64   -16.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.59    16.19R    1.56  
Aston_Villa      21   21  -10      -0.92    45.60     3.03    37.30     5.44   -22.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    46.80R    7.06  
Bournemouth      21   20  -12      -3.00    32.62    -1.82    38.95     5.46   -20.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    33.79R    4.61  
Watford          21   19  -17      -3.26    30.76    -5.56    36.26     5.36   -27.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    56.11R   11.71  
Norwich          21   14  -19      -5.03    21.12    -0.79    28.47     5.20   -36.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.44R   71.32  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 2 January 2020, Derby 2 1 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    26   52  +22       7.20    82.97     8.49    87.46     6.27    34.23    42.86    79.93    99.17    85.90P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       26   52  +20       5.63    77.17     3.35    88.13     6.34    33.80    48.20    82.30    99.25    87.80P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       26   43  +21      -0.98    44.70     8.41    77.65     6.40    31.85     5.29    19.13    83.78    40.54P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   25   43   +9       6.20    79.61     5.25    74.08     6.58    12.49     1.72     7.19    63.02    19.55P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          26   42  +10       0.83    54.30     1.62    72.02     6.53    13.76     0.88     4.24    52.03    16.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         26   41   +2       2.92    64.92    -1.52    69.63     6.42     3.96     0.27     1.65    35.13     9.05P    0.02R    0.00  
Millwall        26   40   +2       6.01    79.11     4.27    66.07     6.27     0.09     0.06     0.44    17.25     3.39P    0.09R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       26   39  +11      -0.10    49.72     5.70    69.07     6.42    14.80     0.27     1.67    35.19    10.12P    0.03R    0.00  
Hull            26   39   +6       1.49    57.81     3.43    67.86     6.52     8.00     0.16     1.13    27.81     6.80P    0.08R    0.00  
Preston         26   39   +4       1.66    58.75     1.48    67.68     6.45     5.71     0.12     0.93    26.03     6.46P    0.08R    0.00  
Bristol_City    26   38   -1       1.65    58.83    -1.75    65.71     6.41    -0.63     0.05     0.41    16.60     3.83P    0.18R    0.00  
Cardiff         26   37   -2       0.15    51.22    -3.69    65.82     6.60    -0.02     0.08     0.56    17.44     4.29P    0.25R    0.01  
Blackburn       26   36   +0       0.79    54.57     0.94    62.52     6.41    -1.42     0.01     0.14     7.77     1.58P    0.63R    0.03  
Reading         25   35   +5       2.56    64.15     7.71    62.45     6.54     3.10     0.02     0.18     8.42     1.67P    0.76R    0.04  
QPR             26   35   -4       3.04    66.17     2.71    58.99     6.31   -10.15     0.00     0.02     2.42     0.39P    2.96R    0.22  
Middlesbrough   26   33   -6      -3.23    33.32    -7.26    61.26     6.28    -4.34     0.00     0.06     4.90     1.14P    1.08R    0.06  
Derby           26   33   -8      -3.77    31.13    -9.80    59.61     6.37    -9.09     0.00     0.02     3.14     0.74P    2.11R    0.13  
Birmingham      26   29  -12      -1.58    42.38    -4.11    52.53     6.26   -18.15     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   18.23R    2.62  
Charlton        26   28   -3      -4.05    30.42     2.44    52.88     6.35    -6.90     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.05P   15.15R    2.17  
Huddersfield    26   28  -12      -1.86    41.22    -3.35    50.30     6.28   -19.68     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   29.05R    5.53  
Stoke           26   24   -9      -8.97    11.39    -5.16    49.48     6.33   -11.95     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   31.32R    6.37  
Wigan           26   23  -15      -6.66    18.19    -6.36    46.36     6.17   -21.03     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   53.42R   14.87  
Barnsley        26   21  -16      -8.34    13.49    -5.60    44.30     6.37   -23.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.55R   24.81  
Luton           26   21  -24      -5.08    25.52    -7.20    42.02     6.27   -35.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.00R   43.13  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 January 2020, Doncaster 2 0 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Wycombe              24   44  +10      10.45    92.79     8.88    72.05     6.32    11.02     9.18    19.09    57.97    25.72P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            24   41  +17      -0.35    47.50     3.68    75.72     6.46    28.45    26.29    43.34    80.25    54.16P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             23   40   +9       5.87    80.29     5.04    69.94     6.57    10.90     5.69    12.91    45.70    19.63P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   39  +19       2.15    61.71    10.94    73.84     6.56    28.41    17.80    32.48    72.00    42.63P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              23   38  +11       0.93    54.98     2.81    72.84     6.61    20.29    13.00    25.77    65.06    36.66P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         24   36  +10      -1.86    39.88     2.30    68.81     6.40    18.63     4.36    10.48    41.92    18.62P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       22   36   +8       1.69    59.83     1.78    68.41     6.78    11.51     4.34     9.85    38.14    16.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       23   36   +0       4.05    72.25    -0.85    63.19     6.48    -2.45     0.62     1.84    12.88     3.88P    0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland           23   35   +7      -4.88    23.99    -5.91    70.10     6.55    16.49     6.30    14.11    48.88    24.99P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           23   35   +6      -2.73    34.99    -3.76    68.88     6.56    13.65     4.36    10.42    41.18    19.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            22   34  +11      -1.77    39.85     2.63    69.72     6.76    19.85     6.15    13.67    47.39    23.29P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            24   34   +4      -0.35    48.22     1.83    63.01     6.28     6.66     0.39     1.29    12.65     3.77P    0.04R    0.00  
Gillingham           24   33   +4      -0.14    49.77     3.37    60.67     6.31     4.33     0.19     0.66     6.78     1.87P    0.11R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        23   33   +2      -1.09    44.11    -1.96    64.64     6.65     6.26     1.12     3.29    19.24     7.02P    0.02R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           23   32   -4       1.88    61.40    -2.48    60.37     6.38    -4.29     0.15     0.51     5.81     1.49P    0.12R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         24   30   -2       0.80    55.32     3.49    57.96     6.47    -1.06     0.05     0.22     2.86     0.71P    0.42R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   29   +1      -1.78    40.99     4.41    55.21     6.30    -0.90     0.01     0.06     1.24     0.26P    0.93R    0.00  
Rochdale             24   25  -14      -0.86    46.25    -2.20    47.61     6.11   -22.11     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    12.40R    0.07  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   24   -7      -4.14    28.19     0.05    46.50     6.11   -14.34     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   14.73R    0.08  
MK_Dons              24   24  -10      -4.19    28.54    -2.78    45.92     6.14   -18.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   18.14R    0.12  
Tranmere             23   21  -16      -1.31    43.62    -0.24    40.51     6.22   -31.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.68R    1.58  
Southend             24    9  -38     -12.71     1.92   -17.82    27.08     5.79   -55.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.88R   52.74  
Bolton               21    7  -28      -0.75    46.49   -13.21    27.62     6.43   -45.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.48R   45.41  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2020, Cheltenham 3 0 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          26   50  +18       7.58    84.11     7.92    83.63     6.40    27.30    35.83    73.07    97.38    79.24P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           25   47   +8       8.16    86.43     1.31    80.18     6.52    14.46    16.65    49.77    91.48    59.47P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            24   44  +17       5.87    78.65     9.15    78.06     6.82    22.68    12.31    40.14    85.80    50.72P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         25   44  +12       1.72    59.11     0.50    78.41     6.62    20.11    11.25    41.25    86.98    54.85P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       25   41  +18       3.36    67.65    13.03    73.28     6.53    23.18     3.21    17.20    66.72    28.68P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         24   41  +11       1.05    55.34     0.43    79.47     6.95    23.20    16.24    49.00    89.44    60.73P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     26   41   +8       2.08    60.99     3.05    70.87     6.29    11.71     1.09     8.04    49.29    17.75P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       25   40  +12      -0.01    49.95     3.62    72.33     6.59    17.26     2.40    13.89    59.88    26.38P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      25   39   +6       1.76    59.87     1.64    69.56     6.63     8.64     0.93     6.28    41.17    14.03P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        25   35   +1       3.02    66.75     3.88    61.39     6.40    -2.08     0.01     0.35     7.10     1.59P    0.03R    0.03  
Walsall          26   33   -8      -3.14    34.31    -8.96    60.23     6.39    -7.86     0.01     0.19     4.74     1.26P    0.08R    0.08  
Salford_City     26   32   -4       3.23    67.56     6.44    54.18     6.19   -11.89     0.00     0.01     0.63     0.13P    0.87R    0.87  
Cambridge_Utd    26   31   -1      -0.95    45.48     3.94    55.69     6.17    -4.51     0.00     0.01     1.03     0.17P    0.43R    0.43  
Scunthorpe       26   31   -2      -8.18    14.78    -7.21    61.63     6.55     2.72     0.03     0.42     8.30     2.52P    0.06R    0.06  
Newport_County   23   30   +0      -0.73    46.45     0.63    60.42     6.75    -1.09     0.03     0.32     6.18     1.54P    0.07R    0.07  
Crawley_Town     26   29   -3      -2.74    36.34     2.64    54.19     6.27    -6.46     0.00     0.01     0.60     0.12P    0.95R    0.95  
Macclesfield     24   29   -3       2.20    63.50     5.18    52.45     6.35   -12.49     0.00     0.01     0.35     0.08P    1.85R    1.85  
Grimsby          24   29   -4      -0.12    49.90     0.63    54.46     6.41   -10.18     0.00     0.02     0.77     0.15P    0.88R    0.88  
Mansfield        26   27   -5     -11.88     5.35    -9.81    56.25     6.40    -2.32     0.00     0.03     1.47     0.46P    0.47R    0.47  
Leyton_Orient    25   26  -10      -1.16    44.71     0.93    49.41     6.42   -18.48     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    5.40R    5.40  
Oldham           25   26  -15      -5.79    21.20   -11.31    52.47     6.49   -18.36     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.08P    2.05R    2.05  
Carlisle         25   25  -17      -4.80    25.87   -10.24    51.10     6.44   -20.89     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    3.47R    3.47  
Stevenage        25   18  -15     -11.51     4.42    -8.86    43.88     6.36   -18.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.88R   20.88  
Morecambe        25   18  -24      -6.08    18.68    -8.53    38.69     6.12   -36.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.51R   62.51  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 January 2020, Hartlepool 2 1 Eastleigh; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             28   55  +27       7.71    83.16    13.68    83.90     6.07    33.37    49.51    95.07    60.71P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             30   52  +18      -1.60    42.01    -0.98    80.77     5.63    28.44    24.19    89.43    45.03P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   52  +10       5.01    72.30     1.26    75.72     5.70    12.56     5.68    61.33    16.85P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            30   50  +13       4.01    68.39     5.82    75.05     5.69    17.62     4.56    58.64    15.24P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       29   46  +15      -5.24    26.12    -2.33    76.47     5.86    25.89     8.76    70.29    28.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     28   45  +14      -0.10    49.47     4.06    75.27     6.05    22.26     6.01    61.36    20.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   45  +11       2.75    63.38     7.41    69.77     5.80    13.21     0.74    24.06     5.44P    0.02R    0.00  
Stockport          30   45   -2       7.85    82.44     4.79    63.81     5.67    -7.13     0.05     4.07     0.61P    0.48R    0.00  
Woking             29   44   -2       8.24    84.04     4.57    64.02     5.83    -7.28     0.08     4.77     0.75P    0.58R    0.00  
Halifax            29   43   -3       6.46    79.52     1.48    65.72     5.75    -3.71     0.09     7.21     1.17P    0.20R    0.00  
Barnet             28   40   +6      -2.26    38.88     0.22    66.36     6.05     8.42     0.21    11.48     2.84P    0.20R    0.00  
Sutton_United      30   39   +3      -2.52    38.69     2.56    62.07     5.69     4.66     0.01     2.34     0.44P    0.97R    0.01  
Hartlepool         29   39   +1      -0.42    48.29     1.87    61.97     5.79     0.33     0.01     2.39     0.42P    1.18R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     27   39   -2       1.57    58.25    -2.40    63.55     6.21    -4.33     0.08     4.86     0.97P    1.00R    0.01  
Torquay            30   38   -6       2.27    61.17     3.89    56.94     5.66   -11.30     0.00     0.30     0.04P    8.32R    0.19  
Eastleigh          28   37   -4       0.57    53.21    -0.59    60.59     6.00    -5.88     0.01     1.66     0.28P    2.81R    0.04  
Aldershot          29   37   -6       2.70    63.97     1.93    57.72     5.65    -9.75     0.00     0.35     0.05P    6.35R    0.14  
Maidenhead         30   35   -8       0.92    55.34     3.00    54.27     5.52   -12.17     0.00     0.04     0.01P   16.95R    0.62  
Dag_&_Red          30   33   -7      -6.11    23.11    -4.10    52.61     5.45   -10.33     0.00     0.02     0.00P   23.97R    0.85  
Wrexham            30   32   -6     -10.35    10.13    -8.00    53.65     5.55    -6.34     0.00     0.02     0.00P   17.83R    0.56  
AFC_Fylde          28   30  -11      -9.41    11.86   -12.34    56.46     6.14    -8.47     0.00     0.29     0.04P   10.95R    0.48  
Chesterfield       30   30  -14      -8.74    14.66    -9.93    50.67     5.59   -16.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.08R    2.76  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   25  -20     -10.26     9.90   -12.29    46.16     5.81   -23.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.04R   12.18  
Chorley            30   24  -27      -2.13    40.72    -3.57    37.73     5.10   -40.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.04R   82.13