Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 8 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 2 January 2020, Liverpool 2 0 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        20   58  +35      12.75    99.59     4.72    99.11     5.02    63.38    98.30    99.95   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        21   45  +27       9.31    92.60    16.63    75.43     5.76    37.92     0.09    14.85    88.00    97.57    99.87     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   44  +32      -4.74    19.29    -3.53    83.08     4.86    60.75     1.61    84.74    99.37    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   36   +7      -0.30    47.78    -4.23    64.70     5.71    15.08     0.00     0.40     8.80    55.42    90.02     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   31   +7      -3.96    27.65    -1.95    59.49     5.62    14.71     0.00     0.03     1.71    19.43    68.89     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   30   +6      -7.14    13.51    -6.60    59.35     5.75    15.23     0.00     0.04     1.75    19.54    67.71     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    21   30   +3       2.23    64.03     5.40    53.52     5.69     3.15     0.00     0.00     0.17     3.34    24.52     0.12R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        21   29   +2       4.00    73.81     8.28    50.11     5.72    -1.26     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.98    10.72     0.75R    0.03  
Crystal_Palace   21   28   -4       1.44    59.36    -0.49    48.56     5.51    -8.62     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.41     5.92     1.45R    0.04  
Arsenal          21   27   -2      -5.63    19.71    -7.36    53.19     5.72     1.88     0.00     0.00     0.13     2.83    22.89     0.22R    0.00  
Everton          21   25   -8      -1.93    38.66    -4.09    47.90     5.73    -8.93     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.38     5.21     2.39R    0.11  
Southampton      21   25  -13       2.90    68.47    -1.16    43.79     5.52   -21.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.98    11.16R    0.77  
Newcastle        21   25  -13       1.63    61.15    -4.35    44.70     5.47   -18.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.29     7.95R    0.44  
Brighton         21   24   -4       1.41    59.84     6.13    42.92     5.49   -10.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.72    11.87R    0.86  
Burnley          21   24  -10       1.04    57.46    -0.29    41.71     5.36   -19.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.40    17.77R    1.53  
West_Ham         20   22   -7      -2.71    34.19    -2.22    42.22     5.65   -15.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.65    15.76R    1.49  
Aston_Villa      21   21  -10      -0.92    45.58     3.03    37.32     5.43   -22.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    46.87R    6.99  
Bournemouth      21   20  -12      -2.91    33.22    -1.64    38.92     5.47   -20.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    34.40R    4.90  
Watford          21   19  -17      -3.16    31.24    -5.40    36.21     5.37   -27.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    56.07R   11.90  
Norwich          21   14  -19      -5.09    21.07    -0.88    28.54     5.22   -36.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.23R   70.93  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 2 January 2020, Derby 2 1 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    26   52  +22       7.29    83.35     8.51    87.54     6.29    34.31    42.18    80.08    99.18    86.06P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       26   52  +20       5.35    75.62     2.93    88.35     6.36    34.14    49.20    82.82    99.36    88.06P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       26   43  +21      -1.10    43.91     8.26    77.69     6.40    31.91     5.08    18.94    83.83    41.11P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   25   43   +9       6.38    80.46     5.48    73.96     6.58    12.30     1.63     6.89    62.51    19.07P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          26   42  +10       0.90    54.39     1.71    71.99     6.61    13.76     0.85     4.42    51.95    16.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         26   41   +2       3.04    65.59    -1.34    69.44     6.42     3.69     0.24     1.55    34.09     8.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall        26   40   +2       5.99    79.41     4.23    66.12     6.31     0.19     0.10     0.49    17.82     3.64P    0.09R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       26   39  +11      -0.19    49.45     5.58    69.05     6.41    14.82     0.26     1.54    35.14     9.90P    0.03R    0.00  
Hull            26   39   +6       1.40    57.45     3.29    67.99     6.47     8.18     0.18     1.10    28.02     6.75P    0.07R    0.00  
Preston         26   39   +4       1.71    59.15     1.49    67.73     6.44     5.77     0.11     0.88    26.23     6.33P    0.07R    0.00  
Bristol_City    26   38   -1       1.59    58.44    -1.87    65.77     6.49    -0.57     0.05     0.43    17.16     3.84P    0.17R    0.00  
Cardiff         26   37   -2       0.05    50.53    -3.89    65.86     6.58     0.02     0.07     0.50    17.46     4.20P    0.19R    0.01  
Blackburn       26   36   +0       0.87    55.21     1.05    62.50     6.43    -1.46     0.02     0.11     7.91     1.60P    0.66R    0.03  
Reading         25   35   +5       2.52    64.07     7.61    62.51     6.49     3.23     0.02     0.15     8.48     1.65P    0.71R    0.02  
QPR             26   35   -4       3.05    65.90     2.78    59.01     6.35   -10.16     0.01     0.04     2.57     0.43P    2.83R    0.17  
Middlesbrough   26   33   -6      -3.15    33.96    -7.15    61.23     6.25    -4.36     0.00     0.04     4.59     1.16P    1.07R    0.06  
Derby           26   33   -8      -3.65    31.67    -9.60    59.48     6.38    -9.31     0.00     0.03     3.08     0.69P    2.32R    0.16  
Birmingham      26   29  -12      -1.62    42.24    -4.16    52.53     6.27   -18.16     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P   17.86R    2.51  
Charlton        26   28   -3      -4.15    29.97     2.30    52.95     6.37    -6.82     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.05P   15.24R    2.13  
Huddersfield    26   28  -12      -2.03    40.19    -3.51    50.34     6.23   -19.63     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   28.66R    5.05  
Stoke           26   24   -9      -8.83    11.74    -4.90    49.32     6.30   -12.19     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   31.89R    6.56  
Wigan           26   23  -15      -6.58    18.42    -6.27    46.32     6.16   -21.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.16R   14.94  
Barnsley        26   21  -16      -8.18    13.85    -5.30    44.15     6.33   -23.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.05R   25.85  
Luton           26   21  -24      -5.12    25.12    -7.25    42.07     6.25   -35.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.93R   42.51  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 January 2020, Doncaster 2 0 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Wycombe              24   44  +10      10.40    92.77     8.77    72.12     6.36    11.14     9.31    19.50    58.61    26.22P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            24   41  +17      -0.22    48.42     3.95    75.52     6.51    28.17    25.37    42.14    79.40    52.98P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             23   40   +9       5.93    80.44     5.09    69.92     6.56    10.88     5.77    13.07    45.76    19.69P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   39  +19       2.09    61.53    10.82    73.74     6.59    28.32    17.59    32.28    71.25    42.12P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              23   38  +11       0.81    54.45     2.63    72.96     6.61    20.48    13.77    26.40    65.64    37.41P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         24   36  +10      -1.91    39.52     2.22    68.83     6.37    18.66     4.30    10.10    42.33    18.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       22   36   +8       1.48    58.44     1.41    68.46     6.78    11.62     4.32     9.80    38.55    16.52P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       23   36   +0       4.04    71.98    -0.91    63.19     6.52    -2.44     0.72     1.93    13.05     3.97P    0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland           23   35   +7      -4.90    23.94    -5.93    70.19     6.56    16.53     6.50    14.53    49.41    25.82P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           23   35   +6      -2.59    35.64    -3.53    68.69     6.57    13.36     4.14    10.05    39.83    18.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            22   34  +11      -1.86    39.48     2.52    69.80     6.68    19.97     6.16    13.94    48.09    23.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            24   34   +4      -0.26    48.74     1.93    62.96     6.28     6.61     0.44     1.48    12.20     3.94P    0.04R    0.00  
Gillingham           24   33   +4       0.04    50.90     3.67    60.49     6.36     4.07     0.18     0.60     6.61     1.77P    0.11R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        23   33   +2      -1.10    44.20    -1.95    64.64     6.63     6.27     1.19     3.32    19.21     7.05P    0.02R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           23   32   -4       1.84    61.10    -2.51    60.44     6.36    -4.21     0.15     0.55     5.76     1.58P    0.14R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         24   30   -2       0.77    55.20     3.43    58.06     6.47    -0.95     0.08     0.24     3.04     0.78P    0.41R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   29   +1      -1.73    41.06     4.47    55.20     6.30    -0.95     0.01     0.06     1.19     0.25P    0.91R    0.00  
Rochdale             24   25  -14      -0.69    47.13    -1.93    47.51     6.11   -22.27     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   12.76R    0.09  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   24   -7      -4.27    27.56    -0.10    46.61     6.09   -14.17     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   14.32R    0.10  
MK_Dons              24   24  -10      -4.06    29.15    -2.60    45.84     6.16   -18.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   18.48R    0.14  
Tranmere             23   21  -16      -1.34    43.18    -0.36    40.56     6.21   -31.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.42R    1.64  
Southend             24    9  -38     -12.79     1.90   -17.88    27.19     5.82   -55.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.86R   52.32  
Bolton               21    7  -28      -0.76    46.36   -13.21    27.62     6.43   -45.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.50R   45.71  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2020, Cheltenham 3 0 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          26   50  +18       7.75    84.66     8.24    83.58     6.42    27.15    36.23    73.04    97.20    79.00P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           25   47   +8       8.35    86.86     1.59    80.03     6.58    14.26    16.41    49.11    90.91    58.92P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            24   44  +17       5.90    78.60     9.21    78.03     6.81    22.67    12.31    40.56    85.84    50.98P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         25   44  +12       1.96    60.22     0.82    78.24     6.63    19.93    11.49    40.56    86.47    53.88P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       25   41  +18       3.10    66.03    12.68    73.49     6.55    23.49     3.55    18.22    67.93    30.07P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         24   41  +11       1.17    55.96     0.56    79.37     6.87    23.09    15.56    48.51    89.22    60.42P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     26   41   +8       2.13    61.54     3.05    70.81     6.27    11.61     1.02     7.94    48.98    17.64P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       25   40  +12      -0.09    49.42     3.50    72.45     6.58    17.40     2.51    14.52    60.54    26.95P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      25   39   +6       1.72    59.23     1.59    69.57     6.59     8.67     0.84     6.29    41.15    14.14P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        25   35   +1       3.06    66.99     3.95    61.33     6.38    -2.16     0.02     0.30     6.85     1.46P    0.03R    0.03  
Walsall          26   33   -8      -3.20    33.98    -8.97    60.18     6.39    -7.94     0.01     0.17     4.73     1.18P    0.05R    0.05  
Salford_City     26   32   -4       3.05    66.59     6.24    54.34     6.26   -11.68     0.00     0.01     0.71     0.11P    0.85R    0.85  
Cambridge_Utd    26   31   -1      -0.80    46.21     4.10    55.60     6.21    -4.64     0.00     0.02     1.05     0.18P    0.43R    0.43  
Scunthorpe       26   31   -2      -8.23    14.63    -7.25    61.61     6.52     2.73     0.02     0.35     8.33     2.60P    0.07R    0.07  
Newport_County   23   30   +0      -0.66    46.88     0.68    60.38     6.80    -1.16     0.03     0.34     6.35     1.61P    0.10R    0.10  
Crawley_Town     26   29   -3      -2.67    36.74     2.74    54.12     6.28    -6.55     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.10P    0.91R    0.91  
Macclesfield     24   29   -3       2.12    62.98     5.05    52.56     6.32   -12.30     0.00     0.01     0.37     0.05P    1.80R    1.80  
Grimsby          24   29   -4      -0.05    50.52     0.72    54.47     6.41   -10.18     0.00     0.01     0.79     0.13P    0.88R    0.88  
Mansfield        26   27   -5     -12.02     5.32   -10.00    56.25     6.36    -2.30     0.00     0.02     1.41     0.43P    0.42R    0.42  
Leyton_Orient    25   26  -10      -1.05    45.44     1.13    49.41     6.42   -18.54     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.02P    5.45R    5.45  
Oldham           25   26  -15      -5.96    20.97   -11.56    52.52     6.47   -18.31     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.08P    2.14R    2.14  
Carlisle         25   25  -17      -4.93    25.17   -10.42    51.18     6.48   -20.80     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    3.60R    3.60  
Stevenage        25   18  -15     -11.53     4.44    -8.95    44.00     6.32   -18.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.29R   20.29  
Morecambe        25   18  -24      -6.13    18.44    -8.68    38.69     6.09   -36.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.99R   62.99  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 January 2020, Hartlepool 2 1 Eastleigh; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             28   55  +27       7.49    82.53    13.34    83.96     6.08    33.52    49.81    95.04    60.72P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             30   52  +18      -1.60    41.84    -0.94    80.69     5.62    28.32    23.90    89.35    44.96P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   52  +10       4.88    71.87     1.08    75.82     5.70    12.70     5.95    61.77    17.22P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            30   50  +13       4.10    68.47     5.93    75.01     5.73    17.61     4.70    58.37    15.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County       29   46  +15      -5.22    26.21    -2.28    76.45     5.86    25.88     8.37    70.24    28.44P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     28   45  +14      -0.10    49.43     4.04    75.38     6.01    22.38     6.02    61.74    20.67P    0.00R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   45  +11       2.68    62.96     7.28    69.84     5.80    13.31     0.72    24.19     5.39P    0.01R    0.00  
Stockport          30   45   -2       7.80    82.48     4.70    63.81     5.66    -7.15     0.04     4.04     0.57P    0.43R    0.00  
Woking             29   44   -2       8.07    83.30     4.22    64.10     5.84    -7.17     0.06     4.71     0.71P    0.52R    0.00  
Halifax            29   43   -3       6.45    79.52     1.43    65.78     5.75    -3.62     0.09     7.29     1.17P    0.19R    0.00  
Barnet             28   40   +6      -2.04    40.21     0.54    66.28     6.02     8.29     0.21    10.89     2.47P    0.18R    0.00  
Sutton_United      30   39   +3      -2.54    38.16     2.54    62.12     5.67     4.70     0.01     2.34     0.44P    0.88R    0.00  
Hartlepool         29   39   +1      -0.19    49.55     2.21    61.89     5.75     0.17     0.02     2.28     0.39P    1.23R    0.02  
Dover_Athletic     27   39   -2       1.64    58.89    -2.37    63.59     6.24    -4.29     0.09     4.98     0.98P    0.93R    0.01  
Torquay            30   38   -6       2.45    61.84     4.27    56.83     5.68   -11.52     0.00     0.32     0.06P    8.65R    0.22  
Eastleigh          28   37   -4       0.56    53.31    -0.58    60.58     6.04    -5.92     0.02     1.60     0.26P    2.76R    0.05  
Aldershot          29   37   -6       2.67    64.08     1.92    57.70     5.70    -9.82     0.00     0.44     0.06P    6.59R    0.11  
Maidenhead         30   35   -8       0.86    55.47     2.90    54.36     5.52   -12.06     0.00     0.06     0.00P   16.59R    0.57  
Dag_&_Red          30   33   -7      -6.34    22.06    -4.40    52.63     5.47   -10.30     0.00     0.03     0.00    23.92R    0.87  
Wrexham            30   32   -6     -10.26    10.26    -7.82    53.55     5.52    -6.48     0.00     0.04     0.01P   18.06R    0.59  
AFC_Fylde          28   30  -11      -9.25    12.12   -12.08    56.34     6.13    -8.65     0.00     0.28     0.05P   11.44R    0.50  
Chesterfield       30   30  -14      -8.80    14.22   -10.05    50.70     5.59   -16.20     0.00     0.01     0.00    38.93R    2.79  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   25  -20     -10.27     9.80   -12.35    46.22     5.81   -23.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.52R   11.95  
Chorley            30   24  -27      -2.10    40.90    -3.53    37.73     5.09   -40.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.17R   82.33