Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 7 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 2 January 2020, Liverpool 2 0 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        20   58  +35      12.75    99.64     4.84    99.02     5.07    63.23    98.27    99.95   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        21   45  +27       9.30    92.78    16.60    75.37     5.67    37.86     0.07    14.63    88.19    97.66    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   44  +32      -4.61    19.68    -3.27    83.00     4.86    60.55     1.66    84.93    99.38    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   36   +7      -0.33    47.56    -4.24    64.68     5.66    15.08     0.00     0.42     8.58    55.62    90.25     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   31   +7      -4.00    27.18    -2.00    59.44     5.61    14.68     0.00     0.02     1.67    18.77    68.03     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   30   +6      -7.20    13.19    -6.73    59.42     5.76    15.38     0.00     0.05     1.81    20.08    68.00     0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    21   30   +3       2.16    63.62     5.30    53.57     5.71     3.21     0.00     0.00     0.18     3.31    24.89     0.13R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        21   29   +2       4.00    74.00     8.28    50.17     5.63    -1.19     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.98    10.58     0.63R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   21   28   -4       1.47    59.67    -0.44    48.63     5.49    -8.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.41     5.71     1.41R    0.03  
Arsenal          21   27   -2      -5.61    20.04    -7.34    53.25     5.73     1.99     0.00     0.00     0.13     2.75    23.29     0.23R    0.01  
Everton          21   25   -8      -1.89    39.18    -4.07    47.87     5.71    -8.95     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.32     5.14     2.57R    0.12  
Southampton      21   25  -13       2.97    69.17    -1.15    43.71     5.48   -21.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.87    11.27R    0.85  
Newcastle        21   25  -13       1.63    61.12    -4.38    44.70     5.49   -18.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.39     8.12R    0.45  
Brighton         21   24   -4       1.43    60.39     6.16    42.93     5.46   -10.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.75    11.67R    0.79  
Burnley          21   24  -10       1.12    58.06    -0.19    41.68     5.39   -19.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.40    18.14R    1.56  
West_Ham         20   22   -7      -2.78    34.24    -2.36    42.21     5.63   -15.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.66    15.85R    1.48  
Aston_Villa      21   21  -10      -0.91    45.59     3.04    37.29     5.45   -22.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    46.77R    7.08  
Bournemouth      21   20  -12      -2.95    32.94    -1.73    39.00     5.46   -20.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    33.50R    4.63  
Watford          21   19  -17      -3.16    31.21    -5.44    36.19     5.35   -27.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    56.31R   11.83  
Norwich          21   14  -19      -5.11    21.00    -0.90    28.50     5.20   -36.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.39R   71.16  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 2 January 2020, Derby 2 1 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    26   52  +22       7.29    83.42     8.53    87.44     6.28    34.18    42.40    80.15    99.19    86.14P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       26   52  +20       5.49    76.33     3.15    88.26     6.35    34.04    49.13    82.86    99.31    87.91P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       26   43  +21      -0.93    44.93     8.51    77.61     6.41    31.77     4.97    18.64    83.41    40.45P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   25   43   +9       6.18    79.90     5.23    74.11     6.54    12.55     1.63     7.18    63.25    19.58P    0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          26   42  +10       0.78    54.04     1.52    71.95     6.53    13.67     0.84     4.17    51.62    16.56P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         26   41   +2       2.93    65.20    -1.54    69.57     6.39     3.87     0.23     1.58    34.93     9.00P    0.03R    0.00  
Millwall        26   40   +2       6.08    79.38     4.38    66.02     6.33     0.02     0.05     0.45    17.06     3.51P    0.13R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       26   39  +11      -0.04    50.20     5.77    69.02     6.38    14.71     0.27     1.67    34.59     9.66P    0.01R    0.00  
Hull            26   39   +6       1.32    56.88     3.17    68.04     6.45     8.29     0.20     1.08    28.47     6.95P    0.06R    0.00  
Preston         26   39   +4       1.70    59.01     1.49    67.69     6.44     5.76     0.13     0.92    25.98     6.16P    0.08R    0.00  
Bristol_City    26   38   -1       1.76    59.40    -1.58    65.67     6.49    -0.75     0.06     0.45    16.69     3.78P    0.22R    0.01  
Cardiff         26   37   -2       0.11    50.53    -3.74    65.80     6.62    -0.03     0.06     0.49    17.45     4.52P    0.23R    0.00  
Blackburn       26   36   +0       0.79    54.58     0.97    62.52     6.45    -1.41     0.01     0.13     8.01     1.68P    0.66R    0.04  
Reading         25   35   +5       2.55    64.12     7.65    62.47     6.54     3.15     0.02     0.13     8.70     1.68P    0.69R    0.03  
QPR             26   35   -4       3.08    66.00     2.77    59.00     6.33   -10.19     0.00     0.03     2.56     0.40P    3.03R    0.21  
Middlesbrough   26   33   -6      -3.26    33.26    -7.25    61.33     6.27    -4.30     0.00     0.04     5.07     1.22P    1.04R    0.06  
Derby           26   33   -8      -3.74    31.35    -9.69    59.52     6.37    -9.23     0.00     0.02     3.07     0.68P    2.20R    0.14  
Birmingham      26   29  -12      -1.57    42.23    -4.08    52.55     6.30   -18.14     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P   18.11R    2.44  
Charlton        26   28   -3      -4.08    30.24     2.42    52.90     6.37    -6.91     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.06P   15.35R    2.23  
Huddersfield    26   28  -12      -1.96    40.51    -3.50    50.32     6.23   -19.68     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   28.96R    5.38  
Stoke           26   24   -9      -8.90    11.49    -5.02    49.39     6.32   -12.08     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   31.63R    6.50  
Wigan           26   23  -15      -6.57    18.02    -6.28    46.32     6.17   -21.06     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   53.47R   15.38  
Barnsley        26   21  -16      -8.35    13.21    -5.63    44.28     6.43   -23.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.36R   25.44  
Luton           26   21  -24      -5.08    25.35    -7.25    42.12     6.24   -35.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.75R   42.14  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 January 2020, Doncaster 2 0 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Wycombe              24   44  +10      10.43    92.69     8.83    72.16     6.32    11.20     9.29    19.50    58.94    26.31P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            24   41  +17      -0.16    48.81     4.00    75.49     6.49    28.06    24.99    42.12    79.39    52.99P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             23   40   +9       5.79    79.75     4.90    70.03     6.60    11.03     6.07    13.23    46.28    20.23P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   39  +19       2.19    62.13    10.99    73.74     6.55    28.31    17.55    32.04    71.34    41.90P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              23   38  +11       0.84    54.69     2.67    72.92     6.57    20.43    13.49    26.05    65.40    37.23P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         24   36  +10      -1.96    39.43     2.14    68.92     6.40    18.82     4.55    10.62    42.65    18.82P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       22   36   +8       1.70    59.84     1.79    68.39     6.77    11.48     4.26     9.76    38.16    16.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       23   36   +0       4.17    72.83    -0.68    63.08     6.49    -2.61     0.63     1.72    12.64     3.74P    0.02R    0.00  
Sunderland           23   35   +7      -4.83    24.18    -5.84    70.18     6.58    16.53     6.48    14.65    49.41    25.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Portsmouth           23   35   +6      -2.56    35.74    -3.48    68.69     6.61    13.41     4.26    10.07    40.00    18.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Doncaster            22   34  +11      -2.01    38.30     2.33    69.86     6.76    20.09     6.44    14.41    48.45    23.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            24   34   +4      -0.12    49.62     2.12    62.87     6.24     6.47     0.44     1.37    11.96     3.72P    0.03R    0.00  
Gillingham           24   33   +4      -0.14    49.86     3.42    60.62     6.33     4.25     0.21     0.64     6.63     1.87P    0.13R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        23   33   +2      -0.98    44.41    -1.77    64.48     6.61     6.03     1.09     3.00    18.60     6.57P    0.02R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           23   32   -4       1.86    61.33    -2.53    60.36     6.39    -4.31     0.17     0.55     5.80     1.62P    0.14R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         24   30   -2       0.83    55.37     3.51    57.98     6.51    -1.06     0.06     0.21     3.11     0.77P    0.45R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   29   +1      -1.84    40.21     4.32    55.20     6.31    -0.91     0.01     0.07     1.15     0.28P    0.99R    0.00  
Rochdale             24   25  -14      -0.84    46.29    -2.15    47.61     6.11   -22.13     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   12.89R    0.07  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   24   -7      -4.22    28.07    -0.08    46.63     6.08   -14.15     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   14.57R    0.08  
MK_Dons              24   24  -10      -4.14    28.74    -2.71    45.78     6.14   -18.89     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   18.71R    0.13  
Tranmere             23   21  -16      -1.47    42.64    -0.58    40.68     6.22   -30.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.72R    1.49  
Southend             24    9  -38     -12.73     1.88   -17.86    27.12     5.81   -55.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.84R   52.88  
Bolton               21    7  -28      -0.85    45.97   -13.34    27.72     6.45   -45.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.46R   45.36  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2020, Cheltenham 3 0 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          26   50  +18       7.70    84.56     8.14    83.52     6.42    27.13    35.82    73.11    97.29    79.29P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           25   47   +8       8.37    87.03     1.59    80.00     6.58    14.21    16.40    49.45    90.74    58.93P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            24   44  +17       5.80    78.41     9.07    78.01     6.83    22.65    12.35    40.35    85.66    50.67P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         25   44  +12       2.03    60.63     0.91    78.17     6.63    19.83    11.17    40.41    86.03    53.83P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       25   41  +18       3.25    67.02    12.91    73.40     6.49    23.34     3.42    17.64    67.57    29.30P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         24   41  +11       1.21    56.27     0.64    79.36     6.88    23.05    16.18    48.45    89.36    60.61P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     26   41   +8       2.07    61.29     3.07    70.79     6.29    11.62     1.06     7.96    48.89    17.88P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       25   40  +12      -0.21    48.84     3.34    72.53     6.57    17.57     2.66    14.68    60.98    27.02P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      25   39   +6       1.74    59.36     1.61    69.54     6.58     8.62     0.85     6.56    41.19    14.23P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        25   35   +1       2.87    66.00     3.71    61.43     6.39    -1.98     0.03     0.34     7.14     1.62P    0.03R    0.03  
Walsall          26   33   -8      -3.05    34.65    -8.81    60.15     6.39    -7.99     0.01     0.17     4.71     1.25P    0.09R    0.09  
Salford_City     26   32   -4       3.11    66.95     6.34    54.21     6.23   -11.87     0.00     0.01     0.62     0.09P    0.90R    0.90  
Cambridge_Utd    26   31   -1      -0.86    45.94     3.98    55.67     6.19    -4.52     0.00     0.02     1.08     0.19P    0.43R    0.43  
Scunthorpe       26   31   -2      -8.20    14.58    -7.28    61.63     6.53     2.74     0.02     0.44     8.44     2.64P    0.04R    0.04  
Newport_County   23   30   +0      -0.66    46.84     0.68    60.43     6.75    -1.06     0.03     0.33     6.36     1.58P    0.07R    0.07  
Crawley_Town     26   29   -3      -2.75    36.37     2.64    54.20     6.24    -6.49     0.00     0.01     0.52     0.09P    0.83R    0.83  
Macclesfield     24   29   -3       2.10    62.90     5.07    52.55     6.40   -12.37     0.00     0.01     0.43     0.06P    1.75R    1.75  
Grimsby          24   29   -4      -0.11    50.32     0.62    54.52     6.42   -10.07     0.00     0.03     0.82     0.17P    0.86R    0.86  
Mansfield        26   27   -5     -11.93     5.58    -9.95    56.32     6.40    -2.19     0.00     0.03     1.49     0.42P    0.49R    0.49  
Leyton_Orient    25   26  -10      -1.05    45.45     1.12    49.38     6.47   -18.58     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    5.69R    5.69  
Oldham           25   26  -15      -6.12    20.59   -11.79    52.67     6.51   -18.08     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.08P    2.01R    2.01  
Carlisle         25   25  -17      -4.93    25.18   -10.42    51.16     6.51   -20.81     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    3.58R    3.58  
Stevenage        25   18  -15     -11.44     4.56    -8.79    43.87     6.33   -18.63     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.42R   20.42  
Morecambe        25   18  -24      -5.98    18.93    -8.41    38.64     6.08   -36.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.80R   62.80  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 January 2020, Hartlepool 2 1 Eastleigh; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             28   55  +27       7.70    83.00    13.65    83.88     6.05    33.37    49.14    94.97    60.34P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             30   52  +18      -1.42    42.99    -0.67    80.73     5.63    28.37    24.54    89.24    45.03P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   52  +10       4.91    71.97     1.11    75.80     5.69    12.65     5.89    61.63    16.97P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            30   50  +13       3.93    67.72     5.68    75.06     5.72    17.68     4.71    58.61    15.78P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       29   46  +15      -5.10    26.56    -2.13    76.37     5.81    25.72     8.07    69.44    27.90P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     28   45  +14      -0.25    48.63     3.79    75.39     6.07    22.41     6.22    62.01    20.82P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   45  +11       2.68    63.26     7.31    69.82     5.81    13.31     0.82    24.07     5.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Stockport          30   45   -2       7.79    82.07     4.63    63.82     5.69    -7.12     0.03     4.03     0.60P    0.50R    0.00  
Woking             29   44   -2       8.39    84.19     4.83    63.94     5.86    -7.46     0.06     4.69     0.72P    0.59R    0.00  
Halifax            29   43   -3       6.42    79.09     1.41    65.80     5.75    -3.60     0.12     7.34     1.16P    0.24R    0.00  
Barnet             28   40   +6      -2.35    38.61     0.13    66.40     6.07     8.50     0.25    11.64     2.82P    0.19R    0.00  
Sutton_United      30   39   +3      -2.40    38.91     2.69    61.98     5.66     4.52     0.02     2.27     0.47P    0.95R    0.01  
Hartlepool         29   39   +1      -0.42    48.31     1.84    62.02     5.76     0.40     0.02     2.51     0.45P    1.16R    0.02  
Dover_Athletic     27   39   -2       1.60    58.38    -2.39    63.54     6.23    -4.30     0.10     4.83     0.98P    0.97R    0.01  
Torquay            30   38   -6       2.42    61.61     4.22    56.83     5.64   -11.49     0.00     0.26     0.02P    8.43R    0.19  
Eastleigh          28   37   -4       0.49    53.03    -0.67    60.68     6.00    -5.78     0.01     1.65     0.25P    2.67R    0.04  
Aldershot          29   37   -6       2.60    63.63     1.76    57.76     5.67    -9.70     0.00     0.43     0.06P    6.21R    0.11  
Maidenhead         30   35   -8       1.08    56.30     3.24    54.21     5.53   -12.28     0.00     0.04     0.01P   17.42R    0.64  
Dag_&_Red          30   33   -7      -6.19    22.59    -4.15    52.52     5.46   -10.45     0.00     0.01     0.00P   24.48R    0.92  
Wrexham            30   32   -6     -10.28    10.33    -7.87    53.59     5.55    -6.42     0.00     0.02     0.01P   18.07R    0.55  
AFC_Fylde          28   30  -11      -9.45    11.53   -12.40    56.43     6.10    -8.47     0.00     0.30     0.09P   11.04R    0.43  
Chesterfield       30   30  -14      -8.81    14.28   -10.06    50.76     5.62   -16.11     0.00     0.01     0.00P   38.13R    2.78  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   25  -20     -10.27     9.92   -12.36    46.23     5.83   -23.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.75R   12.16  
Chorley            30   24  -27      -2.10    40.97    -3.59    37.72     5.09   -40.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.19R   82.14