Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 6 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 2 January 2020, Liverpool 2 0 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        20   58  +35      12.71    99.59     4.71    99.07     5.08    63.33    98.28    99.96   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        21   45  +27       9.18    92.64    16.36    75.49     5.74    38.03     0.08    15.16    88.16    97.51    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   44  +32      -4.72    19.47    -3.54    83.06     4.85    60.69     1.63    84.46    99.39    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   36   +7      -0.33    47.42    -4.28    64.71     5.73    15.11     0.00     0.37     8.62    55.42    90.07     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   31   +7      -3.94    27.44    -1.89    59.39     5.62    14.60     0.00     0.03     1.74    19.04    68.05     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham        21   30   +6      -7.18    13.15    -6.73    59.47     5.74    15.43     0.00     0.03     1.73    20.14    68.48     0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    21   30   +3       2.27    64.23     5.47    53.55     5.72     3.20     0.00     0.00     0.13     3.35    25.05     0.12R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        21   29   +2       3.93    73.31     8.16    50.23     5.71    -1.12     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.04    10.98     0.71R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   21   28   -4       1.49    59.98    -0.41    48.53     5.48    -8.66     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.43     5.57     1.43R    0.03  
Arsenal          21   27   -2      -5.62    19.97    -7.37    53.17     5.69     1.83     0.00     0.00     0.17     2.63    22.44     0.22R    0.01  
Everton          21   25   -8      -1.98    38.42    -4.18    47.93     5.70    -8.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.32     5.22     2.41R    0.10  
Southampton      21   25  -13       2.96    69.22    -1.03    43.76     5.51   -21.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.94    11.11R    0.79  
Newcastle        21   25  -13       1.67    61.39    -4.28    44.72     5.44   -18.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.38     7.79R    0.44  
Brighton         21   24   -4       1.44    60.25     6.19    42.89     5.48   -10.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.70    11.98R    0.92  
Burnley          21   24  -10       1.18    58.46    -0.08    41.64     5.38   -20.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.38    18.12R    1.62  
West_Ham         20   22   -7      -2.81    33.87    -2.34    42.24     5.63   -15.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.68    15.50R    1.50  
Aston_Villa      21   21  -10      -0.70    46.83     3.41    37.18     5.41   -23.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    47.64R    7.39  
Bournemouth      21   20  -12      -2.89    33.29    -1.62    38.90     5.47   -20.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    34.28R    4.82  
Watford          21   19  -17      -3.27    30.68    -5.55    36.29     5.36   -27.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    55.44R   11.63  
Norwich          21   14  -19      -5.16    20.91    -1.00    28.51     5.21   -36.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.24R   70.74  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 2 January 2020, Derby 2 1 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    26   52  +22       7.23    82.84     8.47    87.49     6.26    34.25    42.30    80.13    99.20    86.02P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       26   52  +20       5.37    75.83     2.94    88.32     6.35    34.12    48.94    82.86    99.30    88.32P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       26   43  +21      -1.13    43.65     8.25    77.73     6.37    31.96     5.30    18.88    84.22    41.03P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   25   43   +9       6.40    80.63     5.53    74.01     6.56    12.38     1.50     6.96    62.57    19.17P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          26   42  +10       0.86    54.24     1.61    72.01     6.57    13.74     0.87     4.31    51.97    16.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         26   41   +2       3.02    65.66    -1.40    69.51     6.36     3.80     0.26     1.56    34.58     8.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall        26   40   +2       5.99    79.20     4.25    66.11     6.33     0.14     0.08     0.52    17.58     3.54P    0.15R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       26   39  +11       0.09    50.63     5.99    68.88     6.39    14.55     0.30     1.55    34.09     9.31P    0.03R    0.00  
Hull            26   39   +6       1.31    57.09     3.11    68.04     6.44     8.27     0.16     1.06    28.41     7.01P    0.06R    0.00  
Preston         26   39   +4       1.61    58.65     1.34    67.80     6.42     5.90     0.10     0.88    26.76     6.48P    0.06R    0.00  
Bristol_City    26   38   -1       1.73    59.38    -1.65    65.69     6.47    -0.67     0.06     0.43    17.02     3.81P    0.13R    0.00  
Cardiff         26   37   -2       0.10    50.81    -3.68    65.75     6.59    -0.11     0.09     0.52    17.22     4.27P    0.24R    0.01  
Blackburn       26   36   +0       0.84    54.84     1.03    62.51     6.40    -1.43     0.01     0.10     7.82     1.60P    0.64R    0.04  
Reading         25   35   +5       2.57    64.33     7.68    62.45     6.51     3.10     0.01     0.13     8.35     1.65P    0.78R    0.04  
QPR             26   35   -4       3.13    66.60     2.91    58.87     6.35   -10.37     0.01     0.03     2.44     0.42P    3.12R    0.21  
Middlesbrough   26   33   -6      -3.16    33.86    -7.13    61.20     6.26    -4.40     0.01     0.05     4.87     1.17P    1.11R    0.07  
Derby           26   33   -8      -3.66    31.54    -9.63    59.49     6.32    -9.28     0.00     0.02     2.95     0.65P    2.20R    0.11  
Birmingham      26   29  -12      -1.59    42.38    -4.12    52.60     6.26   -18.06     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P   17.87R    2.60  
Charlton        26   28   -3      -4.07    30.36     2.41    52.91     6.38    -6.91     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.04P   15.45R    2.20  
Huddersfield    26   28  -12      -2.09    39.99    -3.69    50.37     6.23   -19.52     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   28.80R    5.12  
Stoke           26   24   -9      -8.94    11.44    -5.09    49.41     6.30   -12.08     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.02P   31.56R    6.39  
Wigan           26   23  -15      -6.64    18.06    -6.37    46.41     6.16   -20.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.94R   14.97  
Barnsley        26   21  -16      -8.31    13.35    -5.56    44.24     6.36   -23.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   65.63R   25.40  
Luton           26   21  -24      -5.07    25.20    -7.21    42.07     6.25   -35.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.20R   42.84  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2020, Sunderland 3 1 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Wycombe              24   44  +10      10.43    92.88     8.79    72.10     6.34    11.10     9.50    19.94    58.77    26.55P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            24   41  +17      -0.17    48.95     3.99    75.60     6.51    28.21    26.08    43.15    80.25    53.77P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             23   40   +9       5.89    80.53     5.03    69.93     6.58    10.90     5.95    13.06    46.19    19.85P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   39  +19       2.17    61.83    10.98    73.66     6.56    28.20    17.49    31.92    71.49    42.17P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              23   38  +11       0.83    54.54     2.65    72.96     6.57    20.43    13.65    26.68    66.04    38.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         24   36  +10      -2.04    39.05     2.00    68.91     6.44    18.77     4.67    11.04    43.19    19.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       22   36   +8       1.64    59.26     1.67    68.44     6.78    11.57     4.48    10.03    38.62    16.63P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       23   36   +0       4.14    72.86    -0.77    63.19     6.51    -2.46     0.71     2.01    13.30     4.10P    0.04R    0.00  
Sunderland           23   35   +7      -5.00    23.27    -6.08    70.26     6.54    16.68     6.68    14.99    50.17    26.00P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           23   35   +6      -2.55    35.95    -3.45    68.68     6.53    13.37     4.21    10.11    40.24    18.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            24   34   +4      -0.31    48.62     1.84    63.03     6.28     6.69     0.43     1.51    13.01     4.20P    0.03R    0.00  
Gillingham           24   33   +4      -0.01    50.37     3.67    60.51     6.36     4.12     0.18     0.66     6.73     1.93P    0.12R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        23   33   +2      -0.95    44.98    -1.78    64.52     6.64     6.12     1.07     3.10    19.13     6.87P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           22   32   -2       2.36    64.19    -1.71    61.68     6.55    -2.35     0.36     1.11     9.05     2.74P    0.11R    0.00  
Doncaster            21   31   +9      -2.73    34.48     1.67    68.19     6.93    17.93     4.45    10.35    39.13    18.14P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         24   30   -2       0.71    54.76     3.30    58.10     6.50    -0.86     0.07     0.28     3.39     0.90P    0.35R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   29   +1      -1.79    40.83     4.38    55.19     6.28    -0.91     0.02     0.07     1.26     0.26P    0.93R    0.00  
Rochdale             24   25  -14      -0.69    47.29    -1.93    47.48     6.11   -22.31     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   12.94R    0.08  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   24   -7      -4.26    27.54    -0.16    46.65     6.06   -14.10     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   14.17R    0.08  
MK_Dons              24   24  -10      -4.18    28.30    -2.74    45.79     6.15   -18.81     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    18.50R    0.13  
Tranmere             23   21  -16      -1.33    43.47    -0.33    40.54     6.21   -31.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.54R    1.56  
Southend             24    9  -38     -12.67     1.92   -17.77    27.11     5.81   -55.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.86R   53.00  
Bolton               21    7  -28      -0.80    46.53   -13.27    27.72     6.43   -45.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.37R   45.14  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2020, Cheltenham 3 0 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          26   50  +18       7.58    83.94     7.96    83.62     6.42    27.25    36.28    73.36    97.30    79.52P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           25   47   +8       8.39    87.22     1.60    80.04     6.55    14.25    16.09    49.43    90.83    58.94P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            24   44  +17       6.12    79.54     9.54    77.86     6.80    22.41    11.67    39.47    85.19    49.94P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         25   44  +12       2.02    60.57     0.86    78.29     6.63    19.95    11.41    40.60    86.39    54.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       25   41  +18       3.27    67.06    12.92    73.40     6.57    23.36     3.54    18.06    67.28    29.62P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         24   41  +11       1.03    55.48     0.40    79.50     6.91    23.26    16.45    49.32    89.57    61.35P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     26   41   +8       2.11    61.27     3.10    70.80     6.28    11.68     1.06     7.70    49.30    17.44P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       25   40  +12      -0.21    48.86     3.35    72.53     6.59    17.51     2.55    14.34    61.07    27.01P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      25   39   +6       1.83    59.80     1.72    69.54     6.61     8.65     0.87     6.32    40.96    13.88P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        25   35   +1       3.05    67.09     3.91    61.32     6.36    -2.15     0.03     0.33     6.88     1.60P    0.03R    0.03  
Walsall          26   33   -8      -3.17    34.27    -8.94    60.24     6.38    -7.88     0.01     0.19     4.65     1.24P    0.07R    0.07  
Salford_City     26   32   -4       3.10    66.95     6.29    54.23     6.22   -11.82     0.00     0.02     0.61     0.08P    0.85R    0.85  
Cambridge_Utd    26   31   -1      -0.81    46.40     4.08    55.60     6.17    -4.64     0.00     0.03     1.03     0.19P    0.43R    0.43  
Scunthorpe       26   31   -2      -8.23    14.68    -7.26    61.67     6.54     2.74     0.01     0.40     8.52     2.68P    0.06R    0.06  
Newport_County   23   30   +0      -0.68    46.71     0.66    60.39     6.78    -1.11     0.03     0.35     6.32     1.55P    0.10R    0.10  
Crawley_Town     26   29   -3      -2.87    35.63     2.44    54.30     6.25    -6.33     0.00     0.01     0.68     0.14P    0.83R    0.83  
Macclesfield     24   29   -3       2.18    63.49     5.16    52.42     6.36   -12.56     0.00     0.01     0.42     0.07P    1.81R    1.81  
Grimsby          24   29   -4      -0.07    50.52     0.69    54.41     6.40   -10.26     0.00     0.02     0.85     0.19P    0.95R    0.95  
Mansfield        26   27   -5     -11.89     5.54    -9.84    56.26     6.41    -2.26     0.00     0.03     1.52     0.44P    0.49R    0.49  
Leyton_Orient    25   26  -10      -1.11    45.11     0.93    49.41     6.45   -18.47     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    5.49R    5.49  
Oldham           25   26  -15      -6.01    20.80   -11.59    52.59     6.50   -18.22     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.08P    2.04R    2.04  
Carlisle         25   25  -17      -4.89    25.17   -10.38    51.15     6.49   -20.84     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    3.65R    3.65  
Stevenage        25   18  -15     -11.61     4.22    -9.00    43.91     6.32   -18.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.52R   20.52  
Morecambe        25   18  -24      -6.06    18.56    -8.59    38.68     6.12   -36.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.68R   62.68  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2020, Barnet 1 1 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             28   55  +27       7.51    82.68    13.34    84.07     6.06    33.62    50.40    95.23    61.27P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             30   52  +18      -1.48    42.57    -0.76    80.72     5.63    28.34    23.63    89.36    44.86P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   52  +10       4.91    71.95     1.08    75.79     5.76    12.68     5.95    61.44    17.05P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            30   50  +13       4.07    68.49     5.93    75.01     5.72    17.61     4.53    58.24    15.24P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       29   46  +15      -5.31    25.93    -2.47    76.55     5.85    26.02     8.46    70.62    28.88P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     28   45  +14      -0.01    49.77     4.15    75.25     6.04    22.26     5.75    61.48    20.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   45  +11       2.69    63.21     7.32    69.81     5.80    13.30     0.78    24.31     5.31P    0.02R    0.00  
Stockport          30   45   -2       7.85    82.11     4.76    63.80     5.69    -7.20     0.03     4.06     0.59P    0.45R    0.00  
Woking             29   44   -2       8.33    84.24     4.70    63.95     5.82    -7.39     0.07     4.44     0.66P    0.57R    0.00  
Halifax            29   43   -3       6.38    79.00     1.37    65.79     5.76    -3.61     0.08     7.39     1.20P    0.24R    0.00  
Barnet             28   40   +6      -2.06    39.81     0.55    66.17     6.02     8.20     0.18    10.69     2.52P    0.18R    0.00  
Sutton_United      30   39   +3      -2.37    39.03     2.75    62.02     5.70     4.59     0.01     2.31     0.43P    0.89R    0.02  
Dover_Athletic     27   39   -2       1.68    58.87    -2.24    63.54     6.22    -4.41     0.09     4.74     0.88P    0.99R    0.01  
Torquay            30   38   -6       2.56    62.60     4.41    56.83     5.64   -11.51     0.00     0.26     0.05P    8.62R    0.23  
Eastleigh          27   37   -3       1.46    57.98    -0.35    62.01     6.22    -4.82     0.04     3.00     0.55P    1.89R    0.04  
Aldershot          29   37   -6       2.50    63.11     1.64    57.81     5.71    -9.65     0.00     0.45     0.07P    6.21R    0.09  
Hartlepool         28   36   +0      -1.70    42.11     1.39    60.46     5.96    -0.54     0.00     1.62     0.27P    2.33R    0.05  
Maidenhead         30   35   -8       0.72    54.69     2.69    54.41     5.53   -11.98     0.00     0.04     0.01P   16.40R    0.50  
Dag_&_Red          30   33   -7      -6.20    22.86    -4.21    52.52     5.43   -10.46     0.00     0.02     0.01P   24.24R    0.86  
Wrexham            30   32   -6     -10.36    10.11    -7.97    53.64     5.55    -6.34     0.00     0.04     0.01P   17.83R    0.61  
AFC_Fylde          28   30  -11      -9.28    12.03   -12.13    56.31     6.08    -8.67     0.00     0.25     0.08P   11.16R    0.47  
Chesterfield       30   30  -14      -8.81    14.33   -10.13    50.67     5.60   -16.21     0.00     0.01     0.00    38.86R    2.79  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   25  -20     -10.29    10.09   -12.34    46.18     5.81   -23.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.96R   12.09  
Chorley            30   24  -27      -2.02    41.16    -3.48    37.69     5.06   -40.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.16R   82.25