Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 5 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 2 January 2020, Liverpool 2 0 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        20   58  +35      12.77    99.67     4.73    99.04     5.07    63.31    98.35    99.96   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        21   45  +27       9.19    92.51    16.44    75.46     5.74    38.01     0.09    15.17    88.23    97.63    99.87     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   44  +32      -4.59    19.99    -3.28    82.98     4.89    60.58     1.56    84.44    99.37    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   36   +7      -0.22    48.12    -4.13    64.63     5.72    14.98     0.00     0.40     8.57    55.37    89.71     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   31   +7      -3.97    27.20    -1.91    59.38     5.60    14.58     0.00     0.02     1.70    19.11    68.52     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham        21   30   +6      -7.12    13.26    -6.63    59.39     5.73    15.30     0.00     0.01     1.82    19.82    68.03     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    21   30   +3       2.25    63.87     5.41    53.52     5.70     3.16     0.00     0.00     0.14     3.29    24.83     0.14R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        21   29   +2       3.94    73.31     8.21    50.17     5.71    -1.17     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.06    10.93     0.73R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   21   28   -4       1.51    60.14    -0.42    48.59     5.50    -8.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43     5.85     1.49R    0.04  
Arsenal          21   27   -2      -5.53    20.38    -7.16    53.14     5.71     1.77     0.00     0.00     0.12     2.80    22.63     0.24R    0.01  
Everton          21   25   -8      -1.96    38.38    -4.19    47.91     5.72    -8.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.39     5.32     2.51R    0.13  
Southampton      21   25  -13       2.94    68.94    -1.10    43.79     5.46   -21.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.87    10.80R    0.71  
Newcastle        21   25  -13       1.59    60.94    -4.41    44.76     5.46   -18.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.38     7.79R    0.50  
Brighton         21   24   -4       1.36    59.93     6.08    42.91     5.49   -10.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.76    11.85R    0.80  
Burnley          21   24  -10       1.18    58.35    -0.06    41.61     5.35   -20.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.38    18.53R    1.63  
West_Ham         20   22   -7      -2.93    33.07    -2.52    42.35     5.63   -15.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.70    15.32R    1.40  
Aston_Villa      21   21  -10      -0.87    45.84     3.12    37.28     5.45   -22.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    46.89R    7.34  
Bournemouth      21   20  -12      -3.03    32.49    -1.85    38.97     5.48   -20.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13    34.14R    4.61  
Watford          21   19  -17      -3.16    31.30    -5.40    36.22     5.36   -27.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    56.14R   12.00  
Norwich          21   14  -19      -5.08    21.11    -0.93    28.53     5.17   -36.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.42R   70.81  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 2 January 2020, Derby 2 1 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    26   52  +22       7.20    82.77     8.46    87.52     6.29    34.25    42.35    80.19    99.12    86.03P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       26   52  +20       5.51    76.34     3.12    88.28     6.31    34.09    48.99    82.89    99.31    88.22P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       26   43  +21      -1.11    43.85     8.25    77.71     6.36    31.95     5.22    18.79    84.18    40.93P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   25   43   +9       6.34    80.25     5.40    74.00     6.58    12.37     1.57     7.04    62.57    19.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          26   42  +10       0.84    54.15     1.62    72.02     6.54    13.77     0.87     4.31    51.93    16.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         26   41   +2       2.95    65.13    -1.53    69.58     6.42     3.87     0.26     1.50    34.86     8.88P    0.02R    0.00  
Millwall        26   40   +2       5.91    79.09     4.16    66.12     6.33     0.20     0.07     0.44    17.57     3.36P    0.09R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       26   39  +11      -0.10    49.70     5.71    68.97     6.36    14.70     0.26     1.60    34.43     9.71P    0.03R    0.00  
Hull            26   39   +6       1.44    57.46     3.36    67.92     6.44     8.13     0.17     1.08    27.79     6.89P    0.05R    0.00  
Preston         26   39   +4       1.75    59.21     1.56    67.68     6.49     5.71     0.11     0.86    26.35     6.44P    0.08R    0.00  
Bristol_City    26   38   -1       1.67    58.68    -1.70    65.72     6.46    -0.62     0.04     0.41    16.90     3.71P    0.18R    0.00  
Cardiff         26   37   -2       0.14    51.34    -3.65    65.77     6.58    -0.07     0.05     0.48    17.40     4.36P    0.24R    0.01  
Blackburn       26   36   +0       0.86    55.05     1.02    62.59     6.41    -1.36     0.01     0.14     8.09     1.66P    0.63R    0.05  
Reading         25   35   +5       2.46    63.73     7.57    62.49     6.58     3.18     0.03     0.16     8.57     1.75P    0.84R    0.05  
QPR             26   35   -4       3.18    66.70     2.93    58.83     6.31   -10.44     0.00     0.03     2.40     0.35P    3.06R    0.21  
Middlesbrough   26   33   -6      -3.21    33.64    -7.21    61.29     6.27    -4.31     0.00     0.04     4.85     1.20P    1.08R    0.05  
Derby           26   33   -8      -3.65    31.81    -9.59    59.45     6.37    -9.34     0.00     0.03     3.07     0.73P    2.27R    0.13  
Birmingham      26   29  -12      -1.55    42.57    -4.06    52.50     6.26   -18.19     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P   18.18R    2.55  
Charlton        26   28   -3      -4.19    29.57     2.26    53.00     6.35    -6.76     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.06P   14.77R    2.11  
Huddersfield    26   28  -12      -1.81    41.29    -3.25    50.24     6.20   -19.78     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   29.28R    5.36  
Stoke           26   24   -9      -8.96    11.03    -5.12    49.41     6.28   -12.09     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   31.40R    6.54  
Wigan           26   23  -15      -6.57    18.41    -6.25    46.35     6.12   -21.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.35R   15.01  
Barnsley        26   21  -16      -8.33    13.23    -5.58    44.25     6.38   -23.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.82R   25.59  
Luton           26   21  -24      -5.19    24.79    -7.46    42.19     6.27   -35.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.62R   42.32  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2020, Sunderland 3 1 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Wycombe              24   44  +10      10.42    92.90     8.82    72.11     6.30    11.11     9.37    19.75    58.94    26.81P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            24   41  +17      -0.09    49.28     4.13    75.51     6.51    28.14    25.49    42.44    79.81    53.22P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             23   40   +9       5.87    80.01     5.01    69.97     6.54    10.92     6.00    13.19    46.54    19.93P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   39  +19       2.11    61.56    10.84    73.69     6.54    28.21    17.64    32.22    71.30    42.17P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              23   38  +11       0.90    54.99     2.72    72.91     6.63    20.33    14.11    26.74    65.71    37.75P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         24   36  +10      -2.00    39.08     2.07    68.84     6.44    18.70     4.63    10.96    42.86    19.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       22   36   +8       1.65    59.39     1.71    68.42     6.79    11.54     4.37    10.28    38.57    16.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       23   36   +0       4.09    72.67    -0.81    63.24     6.52    -2.37     0.67     1.96    13.57     4.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Sunderland           23   35   +7      -4.91    23.54    -5.96    70.26     6.57    16.69     6.68    15.02    50.85    26.47P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           23   35   +6      -2.77    34.60    -3.83    68.86     6.62    13.66     4.52    10.84    41.74    19.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            24   34   +4      -0.37    48.10     1.81    63.06     6.26     6.74     0.45     1.48    12.69     3.85P    0.01R    0.00  
Gillingham           24   33   +4      -0.04    50.33     3.60    60.53     6.34     4.11     0.16     0.57     6.68     1.83P    0.13R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        23   33   +2      -0.97    44.86    -1.77    64.45     6.65     5.95     1.12     3.04    18.79     6.69P    0.02R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           22   32   -2       2.44    64.50    -1.63    61.67     6.55    -2.37     0.33     1.06     9.03     2.66P    0.08R    0.00  
Doncaster            21   31   +9      -2.57    35.29     1.89    68.08     6.95    17.77     4.42    10.18    38.49    17.89P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         24   30   -2       0.75    55.00     3.39    58.06     6.50    -0.96     0.05     0.21     3.14     0.75P    0.40R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   29   +1      -1.84    40.66     4.28    55.25     6.28    -0.83     0.01     0.07     1.24     0.29P    0.92R    0.00  
Rochdale             24   25  -14      -0.81    46.59    -2.12    47.64     6.09   -22.08     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   12.38R    0.08  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   24   -7      -4.24    27.54    -0.16    46.63     6.07   -14.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   14.16R    0.06  
MK_Dons              24   24  -10      -4.14    28.77    -2.76    45.84     6.18   -18.78     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   18.75R    0.15  
Tranmere             23   21  -16      -1.26    43.56    -0.23    40.50     6.20   -31.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.99R    1.54  
Southend             24    9  -38     -12.65     2.01   -17.68    27.08     5.82   -55.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.82R   53.22  
Bolton               21    7  -28      -0.82    46.41   -13.31    27.73     6.49   -45.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.30R   44.95  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2020, Cheltenham 3 0 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          26   50  +18       7.91    85.08     8.43    83.47     6.40    27.02    35.61    72.64    97.26    78.78P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           25   47   +8       8.23    86.71     1.41    80.15     6.50    14.44    16.65    50.17    91.16    59.81P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            24   44  +17       6.05    79.34     9.46    77.86     6.84    22.43    11.93    39.73    84.96    49.94P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         25   44  +12       1.84    59.70     0.67    78.29     6.65    19.98    11.61    40.83    86.31    54.35P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       25   41  +18       3.27    67.16    12.89    73.33     6.55    23.25     3.38    17.63    67.07    29.08P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         24   41  +11       1.15    55.99     0.55    79.35     6.93    23.05    16.18    48.48    88.91    60.48P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     26   41   +8       2.08    61.23     3.04    70.84     6.25    11.71     1.07     7.91    48.97    17.70P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       25   40  +12      -0.18    48.85     3.38    72.45     6.53    17.44     2.50    14.33    60.95    26.85P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      25   39   +6       1.56    58.48     1.35    69.67     6.63     8.81     0.97     6.83    41.74    14.69P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        25   35   +1       3.01    66.60     3.84    61.39     6.38    -2.08     0.03     0.37     7.20     1.53P    0.04R    0.04  
Walsall          26   33   -8      -3.23    34.07    -9.03    60.21     6.41    -7.90     0.01     0.21     4.81     1.28P    0.06R    0.06  
Salford_City     26   32   -4       3.19    67.48     6.45    54.14     6.23   -11.96     0.00     0.01     0.59     0.10P    0.97R    0.97  
Cambridge_Utd    26   31   -1      -0.94    45.62     3.94    55.73     6.16    -4.47     0.00     0.02     1.11     0.21P    0.39R    0.39  
Scunthorpe       26   31   -2      -8.16    14.72    -7.23    61.64     6.53     2.78     0.03     0.40     8.44     2.59P    0.05R    0.05  
Newport_County   23   30   +0      -0.82    45.69     0.47    60.56     6.81    -0.92     0.03     0.39     6.68     1.70P    0.11R    0.11  
Crawley_Town     26   29   -3      -2.63    36.69     2.79    54.11     6.25    -6.61     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.09P    0.95R    0.95  
Macclesfield     24   29   -3       2.09    62.78     5.04    52.58     6.40   -12.30     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.06P    1.81R    1.81  
Grimsby          24   29   -4      -0.02    50.86     0.76    54.37     6.40   -10.30     0.00     0.02     0.78     0.16P    0.90R    0.90  
Mansfield        26   27   -5     -11.91     5.53    -9.87    56.25     6.41    -2.28     0.00     0.02     1.47     0.45P    0.52R    0.52  
Leyton_Orient    25   26  -10      -1.00    45.48     1.12    49.38     6.43   -18.57     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    5.67R    5.67  
Oldham           25   26  -15      -6.09    20.58   -11.70    52.59     6.53   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.08P    2.19R    2.19  
Carlisle         25   25  -17      -4.78    25.54   -10.22    51.09     6.48   -20.90     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    3.78R    3.78  
Stevenage        25   18  -15     -11.51     4.49    -8.90    43.97     6.35   -18.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    20.02R   20.02  
Morecambe        25   18  -24      -6.11    18.34    -8.63    38.73     6.13   -35.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.55R   62.55  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2020, Barnet 1 1 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             28   55  +27       7.50    82.44    13.34    84.01     6.11    33.55    49.77    95.03    60.79P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             30   52  +18      -1.42    43.02    -0.77    80.75     5.63    28.39    23.63    89.31    45.06P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   52  +10       4.93    72.05     1.12    75.72     5.72    12.56     5.78    60.92    16.60P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            30   50  +13       4.12    68.73     5.99    75.04     5.70    17.62     4.62    58.41    15.34P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       29   46  +15      -5.19    26.15    -2.24    76.52     5.84    25.93     8.87    70.28    28.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     28   45  +14      -0.23    48.67     3.82    75.34     6.06    22.36     6.04    61.76    20.48P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   45  +11       2.66    63.05     7.26    69.85     5.79    13.36     0.76    24.46     5.51P    0.02R    0.00  
Stockport          30   45   -2       7.90    82.50     4.84    63.74     5.68    -7.29     0.04     4.02     0.63P    0.47R    0.00  
Woking             29   44   -2       8.09    83.42     4.31    64.09     5.81    -7.16     0.04     4.62     0.71P    0.52R    0.00  
Halifax            29   43   -3       6.48    79.23     1.48    65.74     5.77    -3.67     0.09     7.31     1.20P    0.20R    0.00  
Barnet             28   40   +6      -2.12    39.46     0.46    66.24     6.03     8.28     0.21    11.00     2.65P    0.15R    0.00  
Sutton_United      30   39   +3      -2.35    38.87     2.78    62.02     5.67     4.58     0.00     2.31     0.40P    0.97R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     27   39   -2       1.63    58.50    -2.36    63.57     6.24    -4.33     0.08     5.01     0.92P    0.97R    0.00  
Torquay            30   38   -6       2.53    62.25     4.42    56.80     5.65   -11.53     0.00     0.28     0.03P    8.57R    0.19  
Eastleigh          27   37   -3       1.41    57.90    -0.42    62.04     6.23    -4.75     0.03     3.02     0.53P    1.97R    0.04  
Aldershot          29   37   -6       2.60    63.47     1.78    57.73     5.67    -9.73     0.00     0.35     0.04P    6.37R    0.11  
Hartlepool         28   36   +0      -1.66    42.24     1.46    60.41     6.02    -0.59     0.01     1.57     0.31P    2.58R    0.03  
Maidenhead         30   35   -8       0.95    55.42     2.98    54.31     5.51   -12.15     0.00     0.03     0.00P   16.77R    0.57  
Dag_&_Red          30   33   -7      -6.25    22.56    -4.26    52.59     5.46   -10.35     0.00     0.01     0.00    23.84R    0.85  
Wrexham            30   32   -6     -10.29    10.48    -7.86    53.62     5.57    -6.39     0.00     0.03     0.00P   17.93R    0.60  
AFC_Fylde          28   30  -11      -9.28    12.43   -12.14    56.33     6.10    -8.66     0.00     0.29     0.08P   11.06R    0.41  
Chesterfield       30   30  -14      -8.75    14.38    -9.97    50.60     5.60   -16.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.24R    3.08  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   25  -20     -10.40     9.52   -12.53    46.26     5.75   -23.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.26R   11.74  
Chorley            30   24  -27      -2.08    40.89    -3.48    37.76     5.10   -40.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.11R   82.36