Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 4 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 2 January 2020, Liverpool 2 0 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        20   58  +35      12.70    99.58     4.63    99.13     5.06    63.44    98.41    99.97   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        21   45  +27       9.28    92.73    16.56    75.50     5.72    38.06     0.08    15.14    88.48    97.72    99.89     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   44  +32      -4.59    20.18    -3.25    83.02     4.85    60.56     1.51    84.43    99.32    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   36   +7      -0.12    48.91    -3.97    64.51     5.71    14.78     0.00     0.39     8.51    54.37    89.50     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   31   +7      -4.00    27.16    -2.01    59.39     5.61    14.61     0.00     0.02     1.61    19.20    68.06     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        21   30   +6      -7.26    12.88    -6.85    59.49     5.74    15.46     0.00     0.04     1.75    20.38    68.39     0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    21   30   +3       2.16    63.52     5.27    53.57     5.71     3.24     0.00     0.00     0.14     3.41    25.05     0.11R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        21   29   +2       3.89    73.14     8.12    50.23     5.71    -1.12     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.14    11.11     0.66R    0.02  
Crystal_Palace   21   28   -4       1.49    59.78    -0.43    48.54     5.52    -8.62     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.45     5.80     1.48R    0.04  
Arsenal          21   27   -2      -5.55    20.12    -7.18    53.14     5.75     1.81     0.00     0.00     0.11     2.82    22.70     0.24R    0.01  
Everton          21   25   -8      -2.01    38.30    -4.23    47.95     5.75    -8.84     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.45     5.28     2.54R    0.09  
Southampton      21   25  -13       3.02    69.38    -1.01    43.67     5.47   -21.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.80    11.37R    0.81  
Newcastle        21   25  -13       1.61    61.28    -4.42    44.75     5.50   -18.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.48     7.87R    0.46  
Brighton         21   24   -4       1.43    60.01     6.20    42.94     5.46   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.68    11.58R    0.86  
Burnley          21   24  -10       1.05    57.49    -0.24    41.71     5.36   -19.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.37    18.05R    1.55  
West_Ham         20   22   -7      -2.80    33.95    -2.34    42.23     5.63   -15.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.69    15.69R    1.48  
Aston_Villa      21   21  -10      -0.81    46.33     3.19    37.28     5.43   -22.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    46.69R    7.08  
Bournemouth      21   20  -12      -3.02    32.49    -1.83    38.94     5.48   -20.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    34.09R    4.73  
Watford          21   19  -17      -3.12    31.62    -5.34    36.16     5.33   -27.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    56.28R   11.92  
Norwich          21   14  -19      -5.09    20.97    -0.87    28.51     5.19   -36.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.33R   70.95  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 2 January 2020, Derby 2 1 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    26   52  +22       7.30    83.18     8.57    87.40     6.27    34.07    41.61    79.69    99.10    85.77P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       26   52  +20       5.45    76.03     3.08    88.36     6.32    34.15    49.70    83.18    99.34    88.45P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       26   43  +21      -1.17    43.62     8.16    77.74     6.37    32.00     5.27    18.84    84.27    40.96P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   25   43   +9       6.27    80.13     5.30    74.09     6.60    12.48     1.49     7.20    63.13    19.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          26   42  +10       0.76    53.47     1.49    72.05     6.56    13.85     0.88     4.46    52.48    16.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         26   41   +2       3.01    65.58    -1.36    69.50     6.31     3.76     0.26     1.44    34.35     8.79P    0.02R    0.00  
Millwall        26   40   +2       6.07    79.42     4.33    66.09     6.32     0.12     0.06     0.47    17.52     3.41P    0.11R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       26   39  +11       0.18    51.09     6.14    68.77     6.38    14.44     0.22     1.43    33.61     9.22P    0.04R    0.00  
Hull            26   39   +6       1.31    56.93     3.15    67.96     6.46     8.16     0.18     0.99    27.93     6.69P    0.06R    0.00  
Preston         26   39   +4       1.61    58.63     1.38    67.71     6.45     5.78     0.12     0.94    26.41     6.47P    0.07R    0.00  
Bristol_City    26   38   -1       1.66    59.03    -1.78    65.74     6.46    -0.58     0.07     0.45    17.00     3.74P    0.18R    0.00  
Cardiff         26   37   -2       0.14    51.03    -3.73    65.78     6.62    -0.10     0.10     0.53    17.65     4.36P    0.27R    0.01  
Blackburn       26   36   +0       0.77    54.36     0.90    62.58     6.45    -1.33     0.02     0.13     8.02     1.69P    0.62R    0.03  
Reading         25   35   +5       2.65    64.70     7.83    62.38     6.52     3.02     0.03     0.17     8.19     1.68P    0.81R    0.03  
QPR             26   35   -4       3.13    66.24     2.86    58.88     6.35   -10.34     0.00     0.03     2.38     0.37P    3.10R    0.22  
Middlesbrough   26   33   -6      -3.28    33.51    -7.28    61.33     6.25    -4.24     0.00     0.04     4.96     1.24P    1.04R    0.04  
Derby           26   33   -8      -3.76    31.27    -9.76    59.58     6.33    -9.12     0.00     0.02     3.05     0.63P    2.11R    0.09  
Birmingham      26   29  -12      -1.58    42.60    -4.02    52.53     6.30   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.02P   18.42R    2.61  
Charlton        26   28   -3      -4.06    30.21     2.46    52.88     6.31    -6.92     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.05P   15.13R    2.15  
Huddersfield    26   28  -12      -2.07    40.10    -3.61    50.39     6.25   -19.60     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   28.58R    5.28  
Stoke           26   24   -9      -8.96    11.37    -5.12    49.44     6.33   -12.03     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   31.44R    6.50  
Wigan           26   23  -15      -6.62    18.10    -6.30    46.38     6.14   -21.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   53.11R   14.82  
Barnsley        26   21  -16      -8.31    13.32    -5.55    44.29     6.37   -23.09     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   65.74R   25.16  
Luton           26   21  -24      -5.01    25.79    -7.14    42.05     6.22   -35.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.14R   43.06  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2020, Sunderland 3 1 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Wycombe              24   44  +10      10.29    92.54     8.64    72.19     6.33    11.25     9.36    20.02    59.51    26.84P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            24   41  +17      -0.07    49.02     4.13    75.53     6.49    28.12    25.45    42.39    79.79    53.15P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             23   40   +9       5.92    80.36     5.08    69.87     6.60    10.79     5.95    13.31    45.89    20.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   39  +19       2.10    61.91    10.91    73.71     6.55    28.27    17.41    32.15    71.65    42.15P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              23   38  +11       0.85    54.58     2.69    72.94     6.62    20.41    14.12    26.79    65.60    37.64P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         24   36  +10      -1.97    39.38     2.07    68.84     6.44    18.66     4.62    10.76    42.72    19.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       22   36   +8       1.55    59.10     1.54    68.49     6.80    11.63     4.54    10.40    39.05    17.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       23   36   +0       4.08    72.37    -0.77    63.15     6.47    -2.49     0.64     1.81    13.10     3.87P    0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland           23   35   +7      -4.94    23.64    -6.00    70.24     6.57    16.68     6.71    14.84    50.07    26.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Portsmouth           23   35   +6      -2.68    35.25    -3.68    68.79     6.67    13.54     4.54    10.74    41.31    19.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            24   34   +4      -0.21    49.17     2.02    62.91     6.27     6.52     0.44     1.42    12.34     3.91P    0.03R    0.00  
Gillingham           24   33   +4       0.03    50.41     3.68    60.50     6.35     4.13     0.20     0.63     6.56     1.85P    0.13R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        23   33   +2      -1.04    44.16    -1.90    64.59     6.64     6.18     1.20     3.20    19.23     7.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           22   32   -2       2.35    64.14    -1.72    61.74     6.56    -2.34     0.36     1.11     9.32     2.63P    0.10R    0.00  
Doncaster            21   31   +9      -2.62    35.01     1.78    68.20     6.94    17.95     4.39    10.12    39.33    18.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         24   30   -2       0.85    55.62     3.54    57.94     6.49    -1.10     0.05     0.22     3.21     0.77P    0.47R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   29   +1      -1.75    40.97     4.41    55.18     6.29    -0.95     0.02     0.07     1.24     0.32P    0.98R    0.00  
Rochdale             24   25  -14      -0.71    47.00    -1.96    47.48     6.13   -22.32     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   13.02R    0.11  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   24   -7      -4.26    27.46    -0.10    46.60     6.09   -14.19     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   14.53R    0.09  
MK_Dons              24   24  -10      -4.15    28.60    -2.71    45.85     6.17   -18.76     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    18.33R    0.16  
Tranmere             23   21  -16      -1.37    43.10    -0.44    40.59     6.22   -31.01     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   56.14R    1.54  
Southend             24    9  -38     -12.73     1.88   -17.85    27.12     5.80   -55.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.90R   53.45  
Bolton               21    7  -28      -0.86    45.95   -13.34    27.80     6.45   -45.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.31R   44.64  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2020, Cheltenham 3 0 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          26   50  +18       7.56    84.16     7.95    83.68     6.41    27.35    36.49    73.87    97.47    79.93P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           25   47   +8       8.38    87.51     1.64    79.99     6.48    14.13    15.95    48.94    91.01    58.93P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            24   44  +17       5.92    78.80     9.24    77.99     6.82    22.62    12.15    40.30    85.68    50.92P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         25   44  +12       1.77    59.28     0.57    78.34     6.59    20.03    11.47    40.98    86.74    54.53P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       25   41  +18       3.30    67.25    12.91    73.34     6.50    23.24     3.27    17.37    67.34    28.84P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         24   41  +11       1.19    56.27     0.59    79.35     6.92    23.04    16.18    48.28    89.20    60.25P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     26   41   +8       2.24    61.94     3.26    70.69     6.25    11.48     1.05     7.71    48.06    17.21P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       25   40  +12      -0.16    49.07     3.40    72.52     6.62    17.54     2.53    14.81    61.39    27.27P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      25   39   +6       1.82    59.66     1.73    69.53     6.61     8.60     0.85     6.43    41.10    14.10P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        25   35   +1       2.94    66.26     3.74    61.43     6.38    -2.03     0.02     0.36     7.12     1.56P    0.02R    0.02  
Walsall          26   33   -8      -3.03    34.66    -8.76    60.16     6.37    -8.01     0.01     0.14     4.63     1.13P    0.08R    0.08  
Salford_City     26   32   -4       3.10    66.80     6.26    54.28     6.21   -11.76     0.00     0.01     0.65     0.10P    0.84R    0.84  
Cambridge_Utd    26   31   -1      -1.05    45.00     3.77    55.77     6.19    -4.39     0.00     0.02     1.12     0.23P    0.37R    0.37  
Scunthorpe       26   31   -2      -8.36    14.06    -7.46    61.69     6.51     2.82     0.01     0.40     8.33     2.64P    0.04R    0.04  
Newport_County   23   30   +0      -0.71    46.43     0.62    60.42     6.75    -1.06     0.01     0.31     6.30     1.52P    0.11R    0.11  
Crawley_Town     26   29   -3      -2.54    37.13     2.93    54.02     6.28    -6.77     0.00     0.01     0.51     0.08P    0.99R    0.99  
Macclesfield     24   29   -3       2.14    63.05     5.12    52.48     6.36   -12.40     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.03P    1.67R    1.67  
Grimsby          24   29   -4      -0.05    50.44     0.76    54.34     6.39   -10.33     0.00     0.02     0.78     0.15P    0.93R    0.93  
Mansfield        26   27   -5     -11.79     5.56    -9.70    56.26     6.40    -2.28     0.00     0.04     1.51     0.43P    0.49R    0.49  
Leyton_Orient    25   26  -10      -1.20    44.45     0.85    49.53     6.43   -18.31     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    5.33R    5.33  
Oldham           25   26  -15      -6.04    20.56   -11.63    52.64     6.52   -18.14     0.00     0.01     0.37     0.10P    2.10R    2.10  
Carlisle         25   25  -17      -4.98    25.07   -10.47    51.18     6.51   -20.78     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    3.50R    3.50  
Stevenage        25   18  -15     -11.45     4.58    -8.81    43.89     6.40   -18.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.75R   20.75  
Morecambe        25   18  -24      -6.03    18.94    -8.49    38.68     6.11   -36.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   62.78R   62.78  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 January 2020, Barnet 1 1 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             28   55  +27       7.52    82.69    13.38    83.99     6.08    33.54    49.96    95.06    60.92P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             30   52  +18      -1.32    43.03    -0.51    80.67     5.63    28.26    23.62    88.97    44.34P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   52  +10       5.01    72.49     1.33    75.70     5.70    12.52     5.63    60.92    16.70P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            30   50  +13       4.06    68.40     5.89    75.06     5.69    17.68     4.64    58.55    15.34P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       29   46  +15      -5.37    25.61    -2.56    76.53     5.87    26.03     8.75    70.41    29.25P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     28   45  +14      -0.24    48.88     3.86    75.34     6.02    22.38     6.11    61.78    20.63P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   45  +11       2.65    63.11     7.21    69.83     5.82    13.29     0.77    24.43     5.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Stockport          30   45   -2       7.92    82.45     4.92    63.76     5.73    -7.24     0.05     4.14     0.61P    0.45R    0.00  
Woking             29   44   -2       8.41    84.29     4.81    63.90     5.79    -7.51     0.04     4.38     0.62P    0.57R    0.00  
Halifax            29   43   -3       6.28    78.71     1.23    65.83     5.80    -3.59     0.09     7.61     1.20P    0.18R    0.00  
Barnet             28   40   +6      -2.00    40.31     0.57    66.27     6.05     8.28     0.21    11.04     2.65P    0.15R    0.00  
Sutton_United      30   39   +3      -2.33    39.35     2.81    61.99     5.63     4.56     0.01     2.14     0.43P    0.94R    0.02  
Dover_Athletic     27   39   -2       1.49    58.16    -2.57    63.65     6.23    -4.20     0.08     4.99     0.99P    0.98R    0.01  
Torquay            30   38   -6       2.22    60.94     3.87    56.90     5.70   -11.40     0.00     0.26     0.03P    8.49R    0.23  
Eastleigh          27   37   -3       1.54    58.51    -0.24    61.97     6.22    -4.90     0.04     3.00     0.54P    1.93R    0.03  
Aldershot          29   37   -6       2.66    63.87     1.84    57.75     5.66    -9.71     0.00     0.36     0.07P    6.35R    0.11  
Hartlepool         28   36   +0      -1.67    42.28     1.49    60.37     6.01    -0.65     0.00     1.53     0.23P    2.67R    0.05  
Maidenhead         30   35   -8       1.01    55.93     3.11    54.28     5.52   -12.19     0.00     0.05     0.01P   16.86R    0.61  
Dag_&_Red          30   33   -7      -6.18    22.82    -4.17    52.54     5.45   -10.42     0.00     0.02     0.00P   24.54R    0.82  
Wrexham            30   32   -6     -10.30    10.25    -7.84    53.65     5.55    -6.36     0.00     0.03     0.00P   17.77R    0.61  
AFC_Fylde          28   30  -11      -9.38    11.99   -12.28    56.39     6.12    -8.56     0.00     0.33     0.08P   10.95R    0.44  
Chesterfield       30   30  -14      -8.87    14.22   -10.11    50.72     5.59   -16.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.53R    2.82  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   25  -20     -10.23    10.00   -12.31    46.24     5.78   -23.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.58R   12.12  
Chorley            30   24  -27      -2.22    39.99    -3.73    37.76     5.09   -39.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.04R   82.15