Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 3 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 2 January 2020, Liverpool 2 0 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        20   58  +35      12.76    99.65     4.78    99.11     5.02    63.35    98.28    99.96   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        21   45  +27       9.24    92.50    16.53    75.41     5.73    37.89     0.09    14.75    87.70    97.43    99.84     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   44  +32      -4.75    19.14    -3.60    83.10     4.83    60.80     1.63    84.86    99.39    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   36   +7      -0.37    47.07    -4.33    64.76     5.70    15.17     0.00     0.39     8.96    55.47    90.33     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   31   +7      -3.93    27.36    -1.89    59.46     5.62    14.72     0.00     0.03     1.73    19.16    68.42     0.00R    0.00  
Tottenham        21   30   +6      -7.31    12.84    -6.92    59.51     5.73    15.47     0.00     0.02     1.88    20.11    68.36     0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    21   30   +3       2.20    63.76     5.32    53.53     5.72     3.17     0.00     0.00     0.18     3.32    24.73     0.13R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        21   29   +2       3.96    74.02     8.24    50.19     5.69    -1.17     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.02    10.65     0.61R    0.02  
Crystal_Palace   21   28   -4       1.51    59.71    -0.38    48.58     5.50    -8.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.37     5.87     1.45R    0.03  
Arsenal          21   27   -2      -5.67    19.63    -7.44    53.17     5.74     1.89     0.00     0.00     0.12     2.70    22.43     0.25R    0.00  
Everton          21   25   -8      -1.94    38.58    -4.08    47.88     5.75    -8.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.35     5.16     2.51R    0.13  
Southampton      21   25  -13       3.06    69.51    -0.92    43.63     5.41   -21.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.85    11.26R    0.80  
Newcastle        21   25  -13       1.60    61.28    -4.39    44.73     5.49   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.39     7.86R    0.50  
Brighton         21   24   -4       1.44    60.35     6.18    42.99     5.45   -10.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.73    11.41R    0.77  
Burnley          21   24  -10       1.18    58.61    -0.09    41.65     5.38   -19.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.42    18.01R    1.64  
West_Ham         20   22   -7      -2.66    34.75    -2.12    42.17     5.66   -16.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.64    15.89R    1.55  
Aston_Villa      21   21  -10      -0.84    45.77     3.20    37.23     5.44   -22.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    47.02R    7.38  
Bournemouth      21   20  -12      -2.96    32.85    -1.68    38.90     5.46   -20.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    34.32R    4.84  
Watford          21   19  -17      -3.16    31.37    -5.42    36.18     5.36   -27.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    56.04R   11.60  
Norwich          21   14  -19      -5.12    21.19    -0.98    28.50     5.21   -36.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.22R   70.74  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 2 January 2020, Derby 2 1 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    26   52  +22       7.30    83.43     8.61    87.48     6.24    34.22    41.92    80.24    99.24    86.03P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       26   52  +20       5.38    75.85     2.97    88.37     6.32    34.17    49.46    83.04    99.34    88.31P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       26   43  +21      -1.16    43.57     8.18    77.77     6.39    31.97     5.25    18.91    84.21    41.06P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   25   43   +9       6.27    79.92     5.35    73.95     6.58    12.30     1.59     6.74    62.54    19.15P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          26   42  +10       0.79    54.12     1.56    72.03     6.52    13.83     0.83     4.26    52.34    16.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         26   41   +2       2.92    64.99    -1.50    69.54     6.37     3.83     0.23     1.55    34.73     8.87P    0.02R    0.00  
Millwall        26   40   +2       6.03    79.01     4.31    66.07     6.31     0.10     0.07     0.45    17.43     3.58P    0.09R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       26   39  +11       0.04    50.30     5.91    68.91     6.42    14.65     0.22     1.61    34.51     9.57P    0.03R    0.00  
Hull            26   39   +6       1.46    57.95     3.35    67.90     6.50     8.09     0.18     1.09    27.67     6.79P    0.06R    0.00  
Preston         26   39   +4       1.65    59.06     1.45    67.74     6.43     5.78     0.11     0.93    26.27     6.30P    0.07R    0.00  
Bristol_City    26   38   -1       1.77    59.28    -1.58    65.68     6.45    -0.67     0.07     0.42    17.07     3.80P    0.17R    0.01  
Cardiff         26   37   -2       0.16    50.91    -3.68    65.71     6.57    -0.19     0.06     0.44    17.29     4.16P    0.21R    0.01  
Blackburn       26   36   +0       0.90    55.11     1.08    62.48     6.43    -1.49     0.00     0.11     7.83     1.62P    0.66R    0.03  
Reading         25   35   +5       2.58    64.25     7.72    62.46     6.48     3.17     0.02     0.12     8.47     1.59P    0.73R    0.03  
QPR             26   35   -4       3.07    66.19     2.78    58.89     6.34   -10.28     0.00     0.02     2.37     0.43P    3.09R    0.20  
Middlesbrough   26   33   -6      -3.29    33.16    -7.31    61.35     6.24    -4.26     0.01     0.03     4.89     1.17P    0.99R    0.04  
Derby           26   33   -8      -3.85    30.78    -9.87    59.66     6.36    -9.04     0.00     0.03     3.13     0.69P    2.16R    0.15  
Birmingham      26   29  -12      -1.57    42.40    -4.05    52.45     6.26   -18.29     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P   18.52R    2.71  
Charlton        26   28   -3      -4.18    29.81     2.24    53.01     6.40    -6.70     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.07P   15.05R    2.16  
Huddersfield    26   28  -12      -1.95    40.77    -3.48    50.35     6.19   -19.65     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   28.45R    5.15  
Stoke           26   24   -9      -8.96    11.43    -5.16    49.44     6.33   -12.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   31.30R    6.45  
Wigan           26   23  -15      -6.62    18.42    -6.32    46.35     6.18   -21.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.33R   15.11  
Barnsley        26   21  -16      -8.24    13.64    -5.43    44.20     6.38   -23.19     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    65.93R   25.55  
Luton           26   21  -24      -5.01    25.48    -7.12    42.06     6.25   -35.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.12R   42.40  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2020, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Wycombe              24   44  +10      10.38    92.81     8.75    72.22     6.38    11.27     9.99    20.59    59.95    27.53P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            24   41  +17      -0.00    49.73     4.21    75.48     6.45    28.02    25.46    42.83    80.20    53.87P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             23   40   +9       5.93    80.19     5.09    69.88     6.55    10.83     5.88    13.12    46.52    20.00P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   39  +19       2.16    62.12    10.97    73.68     6.56    28.18    18.13    32.63    71.60    42.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich              23   38  +11       0.89    54.72     2.73    72.89     6.64    20.36    14.05    27.06    66.09    38.03P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         24   36  +10      -1.95    39.37     2.14    68.90     6.42    18.79     4.77    11.23    43.39    19.61P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       22   36   +8       1.71    59.90     1.78    68.41     6.82    11.50     4.58    10.51    39.01    17.13P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       23   36   +0       4.13    72.86    -0.80    63.21     6.51    -2.38     0.71     2.03    13.52     4.17P    0.02R    0.00  
Portsmouth           23   35   +6      -2.73    34.91    -3.71    68.85     6.62    13.63     4.71    11.04    41.86    19.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool            24   34   +4      -0.38    48.27     1.78    63.10     6.27     6.78     0.49     1.60    13.30     4.22P    0.03R    0.00  
Gillingham           24   33   +4      -0.04    50.14     3.57    60.60     6.36     4.25     0.18     0.65     7.14     1.98P    0.10R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        23   33   +2      -0.98    44.73    -1.81    64.45     6.63     6.05     1.05     3.15    19.13     6.86P    0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland           22   32   +5      -5.66    19.93    -6.59    68.84     6.74    14.94     4.80    11.42    42.75    21.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           22   32   -2       2.43    64.59    -1.62    61.66     6.61    -2.39     0.43     1.21     9.62     2.83P    0.07R    0.00  
Doncaster            21   31   +9      -2.58    35.21     1.85    68.13     6.96    17.87     4.60    10.41    39.58    18.36P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         23   30   +0       1.24    57.86     4.01    59.08     6.66     0.57     0.16     0.49     5.08     1.34P    0.30R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   29   +1      -1.76    40.87     4.38    55.11     6.29    -1.00     0.01     0.05     1.21     0.25P    0.91R    0.00  
Rochdale             24   25  -14      -0.66    47.31    -1.93    47.45     6.13   -22.31     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    13.36R    0.12  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   24   -7      -4.34    27.16    -0.27    46.70     6.09   -14.06     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   14.17R    0.09  
MK_Dons              24   24  -10      -4.25    28.49    -2.82    45.90     6.15   -18.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    18.23R    0.14  
Tranmere             23   21  -16      -1.34    43.21    -0.39    40.51     6.20   -31.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.55R    1.59  
Southend             24    9  -38     -12.74     1.91   -17.89    27.10     5.82   -55.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.85R   53.34  
Bolton               21    7  -28      -0.84    46.13   -13.41    27.77     6.45   -45.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.35R   44.72  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2020, Bradford 1 0 Morecambe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          25   49  +18       8.07    86.45     8.15    84.02     6.60    27.30    40.16    75.63    97.43    81.31P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           25   47   +8       8.34    87.10     1.54    80.05     6.58    14.27    16.71    51.03    91.02    60.26P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            24   44  +17       6.02    79.07     9.37    77.95     6.86    22.57    12.20    42.04    85.52    51.86P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         24   43  +12       2.17    61.67     0.61    78.50     6.85    19.76    13.14    43.95    86.54    56.23P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     25   40   +8       2.54    63.59     3.14    71.37     6.53    11.91     1.50    10.72    52.88    20.71P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       24   39  +12       0.31    51.37     3.57    73.19     6.75    17.94     3.57    18.15    65.16    30.98P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      25   39   +6       1.73    59.48     1.60    69.48     6.60     8.55     0.87     6.76    41.38    14.39P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       24   38  +15       2.77    65.16    11.57    71.39     6.76    19.80     1.99    12.49    55.82    22.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Plymouth         23   38   +9       0.34    51.77    -0.21    77.03     7.12    20.05     9.70    36.77    81.29    49.83P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        25   35   +1       2.89    66.11     3.73    61.50     6.40    -1.94     0.02     0.44     7.60     1.73P    0.04R    0.04  
Salford_City     25   32   -3       3.98    71.30     6.56    55.72     6.46   -10.58     0.00     0.04     1.35     0.26P    0.51R    0.51  
Scunthorpe       25   31   +0      -7.47    16.55    -6.22    63.53     6.79     5.55     0.07     1.16    15.00     5.03P    0.03R    0.03  
Cambridge_Utd    25   31   +0       0.11    51.39     4.49    57.41     6.39    -3.02     0.00     0.08     2.40     0.51P    0.22R    0.22  
Newport_County   23   30   +0      -0.62    47.06     0.74    60.36     6.83    -1.19     0.04     0.41     6.78     1.75P    0.12R    0.12  
Walsall          25   30   -9      -4.48    27.35    -9.50    58.61     6.59    -8.86     0.00     0.13     3.40     0.86P    0.21R    0.21  
Crawley_Town     25   28   -3      -2.33    38.07     2.76    54.21     6.43    -6.97     0.00     0.01     0.74     0.15P    1.00R    1.00  
Mansfield        25   27   -4     -10.64     7.46    -9.01    58.52     6.60    -0.02     0.01     0.14     3.78     1.17P    0.25R    0.25  
Macclesfield     23   26   -4       0.83    56.22     4.71    50.60     6.57   -13.86     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    3.71R    3.71  
Grimsby          23   26   -5      -1.75    40.71    -0.31    52.12     6.62   -12.23     0.00     0.01     0.44     0.09P    2.27R    2.27  
Leyton_Orient    25   26  -10      -0.98    45.83     1.22    49.26     6.37   -18.71     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    5.57R    5.57  
Oldham           24   26  -12      -5.68    21.56   -10.17    54.17     6.73   -14.87     0.00     0.02     0.92     0.21P    1.19R    1.19  
Carlisle         25   25  -17      -5.00    24.80   -10.55    51.32     6.49   -20.63     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.05P    3.28R    3.28  
Morecambe        25   18  -24      -6.15    18.25    -8.69    38.79     6.09   -35.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.21R   61.21  
Stevenage        24   17  -15     -11.36     4.37    -9.09    44.05     6.59   -18.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.42R   20.42  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2020, AFC_Fylde 0 1 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             27   52  +20       8.56    86.30    10.52    81.41     6.27    25.06    33.13    89.12    45.37P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             29   51  +18      -1.04    44.60    -0.77    81.42     5.86    28.86    34.20    90.97    52.73P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            29   50  +14       4.86    72.25     5.99    76.18     5.94    18.28     8.94    67.02    21.04P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     29   49   +9       4.01    68.40     1.24    74.47     5.92    12.09     5.23    54.58    15.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Stockport          29   45   +0       8.50    84.53     5.56    65.39     5.94    -4.75     0.20     8.04     1.35P    0.29R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     27   44  +14      -0.17    49.09     3.36    75.57     6.22    22.19     8.95    64.27    23.91P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       28   43  +14      -6.41    21.17    -2.66    75.18     6.07    25.41     7.83    63.46    26.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       28   42   +9       1.83    59.25     6.41    67.94     6.04    10.95     0.64    17.63     4.05P    0.08R    0.00  
Halifax            28   42   -3       6.54    80.10     1.11    65.79     5.91    -4.11     0.16     8.45     1.52P    0.33R    0.00  
Woking             28   41   -3       7.25    81.22     4.61    62.74     6.04    -7.82     0.04     3.86     0.60P    1.38R    0.02  
Barnet             27   39   +6      -1.71    41.40     0.54    67.12     6.23     8.99     0.46    15.50     3.83P    0.19R    0.00  
Sutton_United      29   39   +4      -1.31    44.08     3.30    63.61     5.89     5.89     0.04     4.96     0.95P    0.70R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     27   39   -2       1.63    58.27    -2.33    63.83     6.24    -3.90     0.14     5.80     1.19P    0.93R    0.01  
Eastleigh          27   37   -3       1.39    57.33    -0.42    62.11     6.24    -4.70     0.05     3.50     0.66P    2.01R    0.04  
Torquay            29   37   -6       2.52    62.63     3.95    57.09     5.93   -11.73     0.00     0.43     0.07P    9.76R    0.37  
Hartlepool         28   36   +0      -1.55    42.78     1.61    60.15     6.00    -1.03     0.02     1.60     0.29P    2.99R    0.09  
Maidenhead         29   35   -7       1.79    59.78     3.26    55.21     5.71   -11.96     0.00     0.14     0.02P   14.85R    0.64  
Aldershot          28   34   -7       1.33    57.59     1.31    55.35     5.83   -11.81     0.00     0.17     0.02P   14.84R    0.65  
Wrexham            29   32   -5      -9.01    13.11    -7.01    55.58     5.73    -4.51     0.00     0.16     0.03P   11.64R    0.47  
Dag_&_Red          29   32   -7      -5.80    23.71    -4.07    53.35     5.72    -9.82     0.00     0.05     0.01P   22.16R    1.13  
AFC_Fylde          28   30  -11      -9.36    11.90   -12.26    56.33     6.09    -8.67     0.00     0.29     0.06P   12.01R    0.57  
Chesterfield       29   27  -15     -10.19    10.40   -10.65    48.83     5.79   -17.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.22R    7.14  
Ebbsfleet_United   28   25  -13     -11.27     7.65    -9.28    48.30     6.06   -15.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.58R    9.03  
Chorley            29   24  -26      -1.33    44.53    -3.33    38.70     5.29   -39.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.03R   79.82