Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 1 January 2020 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2020, Arsenal 2 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        19   55  +33      12.20    99.53     4.42    98.45     5.22    63.06    97.60    99.91   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        21   45  +27       9.20    92.52    16.50    75.50     5.70    38.06     0.11    14.79    88.48    97.72    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         21   44  +32      -4.77    18.74    -3.68    83.14     4.83    60.98     2.29    84.86    99.40    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          21   36   +7      -0.35    47.42    -4.33    64.69     5.72    15.08     0.00     0.38     8.46    55.30    89.89     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          21   31   +7      -3.94    27.68    -1.86    59.33     5.60    14.53     0.00     0.02     1.53    18.75    67.46     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham        21   30   +6      -7.14    13.30    -6.63    59.41     5.75    15.30     0.00     0.03     1.78    19.78    67.64     0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    21   30   +3       2.25    64.29     5.41    53.55     5.69     3.19     0.00     0.00     0.14     3.36    24.81     0.15R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        20   29   +4       4.26    75.33     8.39    50.72     5.84    -0.74     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.47    12.83     0.65R    0.02  
Crystal_Palace   21   28   -4       1.42    59.45    -0.51    48.57     5.51    -8.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.44     5.61     1.41R    0.03  
Arsenal          21   27   -2      -5.54    20.28    -7.20    53.11     5.70     1.73     0.00     0.00     0.12     2.70    22.22     0.22R    0.00  
Everton          21   25   -8      -2.02    38.25    -4.29    48.01     5.71    -8.73     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.38     5.36     2.34R    0.10  
Southampton      21   25  -13       2.98    69.01    -1.04    43.72     5.48   -21.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.89    11.07R    0.70  
Newcastle        21   25  -13       1.62    61.20    -4.38    44.75     5.51   -18.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.40     7.95R    0.45  
Brighton         21   24   -4       1.33    59.54     6.06    43.01     5.47   -10.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.80    11.40R    0.73  
Burnley          21   24  -10       1.15    58.41    -0.06    41.67     5.35   -19.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.41    17.88R    1.43  
West_Ham         20   22   -7      -2.81    33.87    -2.37    42.28     5.65   -15.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.67    15.36R    1.46  
Aston_Villa      21   21  -10      -0.72    46.85     3.36    37.16     5.41   -23.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    47.56R    7.17  
Bournemouth      21   20  -12      -2.99    32.64    -1.76    38.94     5.47   -20.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    34.01R    4.63  
Watford          21   19  -17      -3.21    30.98    -5.48    36.20     5.33   -27.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    56.26R   11.30  
Norwich          21   14  -19      -4.92    21.64    -0.57    28.35     5.14   -36.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.73R   71.96  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2020, Birmingham 2 3 Wigan; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    26   52  +22       7.20    82.84     8.44    87.49     6.24    34.23    42.58    80.17    99.27    86.04P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       26   52  +20       5.51    76.55     3.20    88.29     6.37    34.03    48.77    82.79    99.32    88.07P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       26   43  +21      -1.13    43.75     8.21    77.72     6.40    31.98     5.18    19.06    84.50    41.40P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   25   43   +9       6.23    80.03     5.27    74.05     6.50    12.47     1.61     6.83    63.71    19.54P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          26   42  +10       0.70    53.25     1.41    72.13     6.55    13.93     0.87     4.57    53.50    17.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall        26   40   +2       6.07    79.26     4.37    66.04     6.34     0.05     0.08     0.47    17.84     3.51P    0.14R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       26   39  +11      -0.10    49.99     5.70    69.01     6.43    14.74     0.30     1.73    35.27     9.77P    0.03R    0.00  
Hull            26   39   +6       1.40    57.23     3.24    67.99     6.46     8.21     0.16     1.04    28.85     6.96P    0.06R    0.00  
Preston         26   39   +4       1.81    59.60     1.66    67.63     6.46     5.64     0.10     0.89    26.36     6.22P    0.08R    0.00  
Swansea         25   38   +1       1.96    60.35    -1.52    68.15     6.62     3.15     0.22     1.16    28.59     7.30P    0.06R    0.00  
Bristol_City    26   38   -1       1.72    59.24    -1.67    65.75     6.41    -0.60     0.03     0.39    17.21     3.71P    0.20R    0.01  
Cardiff         26   37   -2       0.01    50.23    -3.89    65.83     6.64     0.02     0.07     0.53    18.11     4.60P    0.26R    0.01  
Blackburn       26   36   +0       0.79    54.55     0.98    62.50     6.43    -1.43     0.02     0.13     7.93     1.64P    0.77R    0.04  
Reading         25   35   +5       2.61    64.47     7.76    62.34     6.52     2.96     0.02     0.16     8.45     1.81P    0.90R    0.06  
QPR             26   35   -4       3.13    66.62     2.87    58.91     6.36   -10.31     0.00     0.02     2.56     0.39P    3.31R    0.26  
Middlesbrough   26   33   -6      -3.18    33.71    -7.19    61.18     6.31    -4.45     0.00     0.04     5.07     1.22P    1.33R    0.07  
Derby           25   30   -9      -4.74    26.18    -9.82    58.24     6.60    -9.71     0.00     0.02     2.48     0.58P    4.38R    0.37  
Birmingham      26   29  -12      -1.59    42.34    -4.07    52.57     6.28   -18.14     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P   18.95R    2.70  
Charlton        25   28   -2      -3.37    33.42     2.51    54.05     6.55    -6.22     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.14P   12.76R    1.71  
Huddersfield    26   28  -12      -1.88    41.09    -3.37    50.25     6.23   -19.75     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   30.24R    5.82  
Stoke           26   24   -9      -8.96    11.15    -5.10    49.44     6.30   -11.98     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.02P   32.51R    6.74  
Wigan           26   23  -15      -6.62    18.26    -6.28    46.34     6.15   -21.07     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   54.65R   16.13  
Barnsley        25   21  -15      -7.58    15.61    -5.59    45.41     6.60   -22.42     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   59.82R   21.40  
Luton           26   21  -24      -5.03    25.24    -7.11    42.07     6.26   -35.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.56R   44.68  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2020, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Wycombe              24   44  +10      10.46    92.92     8.89    72.07     6.32    11.06     9.48    20.04    59.38    26.70P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            24   41  +17      -0.21    48.55     3.95    75.53     6.53    28.15    26.18    43.44    80.01    54.01P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             23   40   +9       6.00    80.76     5.20    69.86     6.55    10.77     5.92    13.18    46.29    19.92P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           23   39  +19       2.11    61.70    10.88    73.71     6.62    28.27    18.23    32.87    71.87    43.02P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              23   38  +11       0.92    55.01     2.78    72.82     6.61    20.25    13.56    26.73    65.88    37.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough         24   36  +10      -1.96    39.44     2.15    68.89     6.45    18.76     4.67    11.26    43.56    19.85P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       22   36   +8       1.70    59.76     1.79    68.42     6.78    11.54     4.58    10.31    38.88    16.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       23   36   +0       4.01    71.84    -0.90    63.24     6.50    -2.37     0.72     1.96    13.54     4.26P    0.02R    0.00  
Portsmouth           23   35   +6      -2.72    34.77    -3.73    68.86     6.58    13.62     4.62    10.93    41.68    19.54P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            24   34   +4      -0.19    49.36     2.03    62.91     6.28     6.52     0.53     1.52    12.79     4.11P    0.05R    0.00  
Gillingham           24   33   +4       0.13    51.31     3.81    60.49     6.33     4.08     0.17     0.56     6.88     1.85P    0.10R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        23   33   +2      -1.16    43.57    -2.08    64.62     6.64     6.27     1.20     3.32    20.06     7.41P    0.02R    0.00  
Sunderland           22   32   +5      -5.62    20.24    -6.56    68.87     6.77    15.00     5.02    11.73    42.90    21.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           22   32   -2       2.36    64.14    -1.70    61.70     6.56    -2.34     0.37     1.10     9.64     2.81P    0.08R    0.00  
Doncaster            21   31   +9      -2.72    34.30     1.64    68.23     6.94    18.00     4.58    10.50    40.14    18.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         23   30   +0       1.24    57.56     3.97    59.11     6.66     0.62     0.14     0.50     5.23     1.39P    0.33R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   29   +1      -1.83    40.52     4.30    55.23     6.27    -0.87     0.01     0.06     1.20     0.26P    1.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             24   25  -14      -0.82    46.47    -2.20    47.64     6.15   -22.02     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   12.75R    0.08  
AFC_Wimbledon        24   24   -7      -4.17    28.12    -0.03    46.53     6.06   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   14.62R    0.09  
MK_Dons              24   24  -10      -4.12    28.70    -2.74    45.88     6.13   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   18.31R    0.12  
Tranmere             23   21  -16      -1.35    43.26    -0.39    40.60     6.25   -31.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.31R    1.53  
Southend             24    9  -38     -12.68     2.03   -17.73    27.07     5.78   -55.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.95R   52.95  
Bolton               21    7  -28      -0.77    46.57   -13.32    27.64     6.48   -45.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.45R   45.23  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2020, Bradford 1 0 Morecambe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          25   49  +18       8.20    86.59     8.32    83.95     6.61    27.20    39.73    75.49    97.36    81.03P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           25   47   +8       8.27    86.59     1.44    80.11     6.54    14.37    16.59    51.45    91.34    60.62P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            24   44  +17       6.04    79.42     9.42    77.97     6.84    22.59    12.52    41.88    85.56    51.67P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         24   43  +12       2.28    62.26     0.75    78.41     6.83    19.70    12.88    43.46    86.38    56.08P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     25   40   +8       2.47    63.58     3.08    71.39     6.47    11.93     1.56    10.50    53.23    20.73P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       24   39  +12       0.17    50.73     3.37    73.28     6.75    18.07     3.58    18.80    65.82    31.60P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      25   39   +6       1.65    58.69     1.52    69.51     6.58     8.62     0.85     6.76    41.36    14.65P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       24   38  +15       2.82    65.31    11.59    71.39     6.77    19.78     2.13    12.60    55.76    22.36P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         23   38   +9       0.30    51.34    -0.24    77.06     7.12    20.01     9.98    36.62    81.63    49.72P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        25   35   +1       2.93    66.54     3.78    61.41     6.40    -2.04     0.03     0.41     7.31     1.62P    0.01R    0.01  
Salford_City     25   32   -3       4.06    71.66     6.63    55.70     6.46   -10.61     0.00     0.04     1.32     0.24P    0.53R    0.53  
Scunthorpe       25   31   +0      -7.47    16.08    -6.24    63.53     6.72     5.52     0.12     1.21    14.53     5.08P    0.02R    0.02  
Cambridge_Utd    25   31   +0       0.13    51.30     4.53    57.30     6.40    -3.16     0.00     0.08     2.23     0.49P    0.23R    0.23  
Newport_County   23   30   +0      -0.75    46.28     0.59    60.53     6.74    -0.95     0.03     0.41     6.70     1.72P    0.07R    0.07  
Walsall          25   30   -9      -4.40    28.09    -9.42    58.50     6.61    -9.00     0.01     0.13     3.33     0.89P    0.20R    0.20  
Crawley_Town     25   28   -3      -2.36    37.90     2.71    54.35     6.45    -6.74     0.00     0.02     0.76     0.14P    0.90R    0.90  
Mansfield        25   27   -4     -10.55     7.51    -8.92    58.43     6.60    -0.16     0.00     0.09     3.50     1.01P    0.22R    0.22  
Macclesfield     23   26   -4       0.73    55.40     4.59    50.64     6.60   -13.80     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.04P    3.62R    3.62  
Grimsby          23   26   -5      -1.60    41.77    -0.09    51.96     6.58   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.06P    2.33R    2.33  
Leyton_Orient    25   26  -10      -1.08    45.29     1.08    49.39     6.41   -18.55     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    5.32R    5.32  
Oldham           24   26  -12      -5.83    21.01   -10.39    54.37     6.71   -14.62     0.00     0.03     0.92     0.20P    1.25R    1.25  
Carlisle         25   25  -17      -5.00    24.68   -10.52    51.18     6.47   -20.79     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    3.36R    3.36  
Morecambe        25   18  -24      -6.13    18.25    -8.63    38.76     6.07   -35.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.13R   61.13  
Stevenage        24   17  -15     -11.28     4.54    -8.95    43.95     6.59   -19.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.82R   20.82  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 January 2020, AFC_Fylde 0 1 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             27   52  +20       8.51    86.18    10.47    81.43     6.26    25.08    33.25    89.20    45.95P    0.00     0.00  
Yeovil             29   51  +18      -1.00    44.66    -0.75    81.41     5.86    28.88    34.09    91.04    52.36P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            29   50  +14       5.00    72.34     6.14    76.14     5.95    18.17     8.79    66.74    20.81P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     29   49   +9       3.86    67.91     0.88    74.60     5.95    12.31     5.52    55.39    15.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Stockport          29   45   +0       8.43    84.50     5.47    65.41     5.95    -4.74     0.18     8.17     1.38P    0.33R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     27   44  +14       0.10    50.45     3.78    75.40     6.26    21.91     8.53    63.07    23.09P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County       28   43  +14      -6.47    20.98    -2.70    75.25     6.09    25.49     8.10    63.90    26.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       28   42   +9       1.75    59.02     6.32    67.97     6.03    11.00     0.60    17.94     4.03P    0.08R    0.00  
Halifax            28   42   -3       6.51    80.02     1.09    65.84     5.91    -4.05     0.14     8.69     1.53P    0.26R    0.00  
Woking             28   41   -3       7.25    81.04     4.55    62.78     6.08    -7.78     0.07     3.86     0.58P    1.44R    0.02  
Barnet             27   39   +6      -1.64    41.78     0.60    67.09     6.25     8.99     0.51    15.45     3.97P    0.15R    0.00  
Sutton_United      29   39   +4      -1.39    43.71     3.22    63.63     5.87     5.92     0.04     4.92     1.03P    0.69R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     27   39   -2       1.69    58.90    -2.29    63.68     6.20    -4.08     0.13     5.46     1.08P    1.02R    0.03  
Eastleigh          27   37   -3       1.51    58.17    -0.23    62.05     6.20    -4.80     0.05     3.25     0.65P    1.98R    0.05  
Torquay            29   37   -6       2.64    62.90     4.13    57.03     5.94   -11.87     0.00     0.45     0.07P    9.99R    0.35  
Hartlepool         28   36   +0      -1.50    43.10     1.71    60.15     6.02    -1.00     0.02     1.64     0.34P    3.20R    0.09  
Maidenhead         29   35   -7       1.84    60.10     3.33    55.14     5.73   -12.09     0.00     0.13     0.02P   15.48R    0.74  
Aldershot          28   34   -7       1.26    57.50     1.21    55.45     5.84   -11.67     0.00     0.22     0.02P   14.34R    0.66  
Wrexham            29   32   -5      -8.89    13.41    -6.85    55.49     5.76    -4.68     0.00     0.14     0.04P   12.18R    0.44  
Dag_&_Red          29   32   -7      -5.82    23.79    -4.09    53.38     5.71    -9.78     0.00     0.04     0.00P   21.91R    1.25  
AFC_Fylde          28   30  -11      -9.38    11.92   -12.27    56.33     6.07    -8.67     0.00     0.28     0.06P   11.94R    0.66  
Chesterfield       29   27  -15     -10.29    10.00   -10.72    48.86     5.79   -17.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.09R    7.40  
Ebbsfleet_United   28   25  -13     -11.41     7.32    -9.51    48.37     6.05   -15.38     0.00     0.01     0.00    55.01R    8.79  
Chorley            29   24  -26      -1.43    44.05    -3.49    38.76     5.33   -39.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.92R   79.51