Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 6 December 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 5 December 2019, Arsenal 1 2 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        15   43  +23      10.11    99.02     1.67    94.82     6.07    58.53    84.22    98.48    99.87    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        15   35  +26       8.63    95.05    17.20    75.22     6.91    39.46     1.17    14.10    68.03    91.29    99.19     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         15   32  +26      -3.54    20.73    -1.80    85.19     5.94    65.52    14.46    83.87    97.29    99.66    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          15   29   +9       1.85    62.74    -1.10    69.76     6.97    23.50     0.15     3.23    27.44    70.07    94.67     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    15   23   +4       2.62    68.95     4.70    53.11     6.85     1.25     0.00     0.01     0.28     2.44    21.90     0.50R    0.02  
Man_Utd          15   21   +5      -4.39    21.45    -2.23    59.16     6.86    14.75     0.00     0.11     2.16    11.74    57.97     0.05R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   15   21   -4       3.25    73.67     0.59    51.22     6.84    -6.76     0.00     0.00     0.13     1.23    13.95     1.21R    0.08  
Tottenham        15   20   +2      -5.95    13.15    -6.18    61.18     6.97    17.04     0.00     0.19     4.27    19.54    69.03     0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        15   19   +2       1.57    62.23     6.84    46.23     6.88    -5.61     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.26     4.57     5.71R    0.45  
Arsenal          15   19   -2      -5.44    16.11    -7.69    53.37     7.08     1.54     0.00     0.01     0.45     3.07    23.66     0.66R    0.03  
Newcastle        15   19   -7       1.92    65.45    -1.24    47.50     6.76   -11.83     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.34     5.62     3.89R    0.24  
Burnley          15   18   -3       0.81    57.16     2.95    43.65     6.66   -13.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     2.11    10.59R    0.99  
Brighton         15   18   -4       2.51    70.01     4.84    43.01     6.64   -14.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.57    12.06R    1.14  
Bournemouth      15   16   -3      -1.97    36.73     1.88    42.66     6.81   -12.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     1.57    14.06R    1.56  
West_Ham         15   16   -8      -2.01    36.22    -3.40    42.09     6.74   -18.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     1.18    16.29R    1.88  
Aston_Villa      15   15   -2      -1.13    42.70     6.77    41.63     7.04   -11.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.34    18.37R    2.67  
Southampton      15   15  -16       0.59    56.31    -4.39    38.56     6.66   -30.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.38    35.21R    5.98  
Everton          15   14  -11      -5.09    16.99    -7.93    42.03     6.83   -17.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.26    16.60R    2.04  
Norwich          15   11  -16      -2.19    34.84    -1.42    30.76     6.42   -39.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    79.32R   35.24  
Watford          15    8  -21      -6.50     9.24   -10.07    29.07     6.30   -39.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.47R   47.68  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 6 December 2019, Millwall 2 2 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       19   42  +17       7.67    89.06     3.92    91.03     7.79    35.79    57.41    81.71    98.62    86.90P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    19   40  +18       7.39    88.09     8.38    86.41     7.66    32.00    28.56    62.88    95.57    72.46P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          19   35  +12       3.25    68.71     3.23    77.37     8.07    19.94     5.39    17.94    70.56    31.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   19   33  +10       5.17    79.49     7.25    74.55     7.74    16.76     2.31     9.20    58.27    20.76P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_City    19   32   +4       4.30    75.06     1.70    71.64     7.88     7.95     1.06     4.84    41.97    12.83P    0.07R    0.01  
Preston         19   31   +8       2.49    65.18     4.30    71.57     7.95    13.21     1.24     5.23    42.85    13.89P    0.06R    0.01  
Brentford       19   30  +15      -2.04    37.26     5.96    73.82     7.81    25.19     2.32     9.09    56.48    23.31P    0.02R    0.00  
Swansea         19   30   +4       1.59    59.90     0.51    69.77     7.81     8.19     0.65     3.01    33.35    10.07P    0.11R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       19   29   +8       0.82    55.43     4.74    68.18     7.80    11.25     0.43     2.10    27.61     8.15P    0.22R    0.02  
Cardiff         19   28   +2      -0.43    47.37    -1.52    67.84     8.15     6.22     0.37     2.17    26.30     8.25P    0.42R    0.03  
Blackburn       19   27   -1       1.61    60.51     0.37    62.49     7.82    -3.51     0.04     0.34     9.08     1.99P    1.72R    0.15  
Millwall        20   27   -2       2.13    63.73     1.81    59.58     7.48    -6.43     0.01     0.11     4.12     0.89P    3.33R    0.35  
Hull            19   26   +4      -1.29    42.28     2.31    64.22     7.91     5.45     0.13     0.75    13.88     3.61P    1.05R    0.09  
Derby           19   25   -5      -2.24    36.32    -6.84    63.56     7.77    -2.70     0.05     0.41    10.91     2.85P    1.21R    0.10  
Birmingham      19   25   -5       1.56    60.76    -1.35    58.50     7.64   -10.19     0.01     0.09     3.06     0.57P    4.93R    0.63  
QPR             19   25   -9       3.70    73.16    -0.76    55.75     7.67   -19.85     0.00     0.02     1.52     0.24P   10.61R    1.71  
Charlton        19   23   +0      -0.79    45.83     3.52    57.74     7.89    -3.46     0.01     0.08     3.14     0.69P    6.25R    0.83  
Reading         18   21   -1      -0.55    47.33     3.77    55.52     7.84    -6.76     0.00     0.03     1.73     0.35P   10.40R    1.82  
Huddersfield    19   18   -9      -4.07    26.13    -2.92    48.77     7.65   -17.96     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   35.07R    9.27  
Middlesbrough   19   17  -11      -8.45     8.37   -10.55    52.74     7.52   -12.25     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.17P   17.38R    3.18  
Luton           19   17  -15      -3.50    29.89    -5.20    47.30     7.85   -27.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   44.95R   14.79  
Wigan           19   16  -14      -5.25    19.21    -6.95    47.25     7.47   -22.76     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   43.60R   12.97  
Stoke           19   14  -13      -8.62     7.46    -8.06    46.65     7.59   -19.42     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   45.97R   14.68  
Barnsley        19   12  -17      -8.31     8.42    -7.63    41.42     7.74   -29.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    72.63R   39.37  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 December 2019, Burton_Albion 1 1 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Wycombe              19   40  +14      11.79    97.16    10.65    75.57     7.34    15.91     9.84    21.59    64.24    28.79P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich              17   35  +15       5.37    81.62     5.69    81.29     7.82    29.01    33.92    52.14    86.28    61.54P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         18   31  +17      -0.27    47.77     6.44    75.65     7.63    31.79    12.51    25.76    67.41    37.08P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            18   30  +12       0.08    50.22     3.83    75.23     7.88    27.02    11.50    24.09    64.71    35.45P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             18   30   +3       4.45    77.43     1.73    65.24     7.47     2.82     0.67     2.12    15.83     4.80P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           17   29  +18       1.53    59.87    11.42    74.34     7.88    31.09    10.08    21.21    61.10    31.54P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       16   29   +9       3.02    70.11     2.84    70.47     8.04    13.64     3.80     9.55    39.66    16.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            18   29   +5       2.86    68.04     2.76    66.58     7.45     7.98     0.93     2.82    20.81     6.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       17   28   +1       4.03    75.50    -0.09    63.76     7.67    -0.96     0.52     1.54    12.38     3.58P    0.06R    0.00  
Portsmouth           17   27   +8      -2.02    36.35    -1.03    71.64     7.87    19.59     5.30    12.08    46.26    21.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Sunderland           17   26   +5      -4.09    24.09    -5.57    72.00     7.73    18.70     4.92    12.24    47.76    23.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        17   24   +3      -0.61    46.12     1.02    67.28     7.77    12.47     1.51     4.12    24.99     9.21P    0.02R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           17   24   -3       1.17    58.46    -2.63    59.45     7.55    -5.09     0.10     0.35     4.51     1.11P    0.28R    0.00  
Doncaster            15   23   +7      -0.87    43.62     2.06    70.60     8.20    19.25     4.38    10.26    41.29    18.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Gillingham           18   21   +0      -2.83    32.51     1.26    55.87     7.52    -1.44     0.02     0.09     1.76     0.41P    1.03R    0.01  
Rochdale             19   19  -12      -1.86    39.09    -3.10    45.23     6.99   -25.83     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    16.00R    0.48  
Accrington_Stanley   18   18   -4      -3.68    27.41     0.90    49.80     7.40   -10.26     0.00     0.01     0.20     0.04P    5.60R    0.11  
Lincoln_City         17   18   -4      -1.94    37.92     1.09    52.10     7.80    -8.20     0.01     0.03     0.70     0.17P    3.63R    0.06  
AFC_Wimbledon        18   16   -7      -4.35    23.24    -0.43    46.32     7.33   -15.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   12.64R    0.51  
Tranmere             17   16  -11      -0.64    46.91     0.61    43.13     7.60   -27.22     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   26.45R    1.43  
MK_Dons              18   13  -14      -6.70    12.79    -6.33    39.00     7.25   -29.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.32R    4.19  
Southend             19    6  -35     -10.69     2.10   -18.19    29.16     6.81   -55.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.08R   38.48  
Bolton               15    1  -27      -0.09    51.20   -14.95    26.68     7.54   -50.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.85R   54.72  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 November 2019, Macclesfield 1 1 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot1     Bot1

Swindon          19   36  +10       6.08    82.84     4.29    78.11     7.86    17.66    18.23    46.41    81.53    54.69P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     19   35  +11       5.27    79.79     5.59    77.10     7.71    18.56    14.94    41.59    78.56    50.83P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            19   34  +10       5.50    80.30     6.32    74.19     7.84    14.71     8.18    27.57    66.04    35.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter           19   33   +4       4.16    74.38    -0.16    74.39     7.67    10.57     7.95    27.19    66.01    36.85P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       18   31  +13       4.31    75.61    10.04    71.87     7.94    16.81     5.28    20.29    55.63    28.11P    0.01R    0.01  
Northampton      19   31   +9       1.26    58.23     3.52    71.18     7.83    13.74     4.45    17.59    51.68    25.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Bradford         18   31   +8       1.04    56.16     0.26    78.02     8.17    20.91    19.39    47.08    80.80    57.12P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         18   29   +6      -0.13    48.94    -0.87    76.58     8.30    19.70    15.30    40.37    75.53    50.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale        19   28   +0       4.14    75.17     2.84    62.15     7.54    -3.72     0.20     1.68    12.06     3.65P    0.21R    0.21  
Colchester       18   27   +6      -0.58    46.19     1.71    70.31     8.00    13.35     3.64    15.26    47.82    24.01P    0.01R    0.01  
Newport_County   17   27   +3       3.62    73.39     2.55    66.90     8.00     3.70     1.46     7.29    29.61    12.16P    0.05R    0.05  
Salford_City     19   25   -5       4.56    77.56     3.80    52.37     7.57   -19.94     0.01     0.09     1.10     0.25P    5.02R    5.02  
Cambridge_Utd    19   24   +4      -0.00    50.73     6.54    59.26     7.53     1.99     0.09     0.83     7.07     2.06P    0.59R    0.59  
Macclesfield     19   23   -3       2.18    65.30     4.25    51.84     7.28   -14.54     0.00     0.06     0.77     0.18P    4.69R    4.69  
Mansfield        19   21   +0      -9.18     7.17    -6.26    62.72     7.82     6.89     0.37     2.67    16.11     6.81P    0.22R    0.22  
Scunthorpe       19   21   -1      -8.75     9.09    -6.54    61.92     8.10     4.80     0.35     2.43    14.27     5.88P    0.36R    0.36  
Crawley_Town     19   21   -6      -1.06    44.20     0.19    52.88     7.60   -14.01     0.01     0.08     1.20     0.30P    4.39R    4.39  
Grimsby          17   20   -2      -0.69    46.00     1.35    54.87     7.93    -8.66     0.02     0.29     2.63     0.73P    2.60R    2.60  
Leyton_Orient    19   20   -8      -0.75    46.32     0.41    48.58     7.64   -21.35     0.00     0.01     0.37     0.09P   12.42R   12.42  
Oldham           18   19   -7      -5.31    19.20    -6.46    58.71     8.08    -5.03     0.10     0.87     6.86     2.31P    1.14R    1.14  
Carlisle         19   19  -12      -4.84    22.20    -8.52    53.41     7.68   -15.92     0.00     0.10     1.39     0.36P    4.21R    4.21  
Walsall          19   19  -12      -6.01    17.14   -10.76    55.06     7.86   -12.85     0.02     0.22     2.49     0.78P    2.62R    2.62  
Stevenage        18   14   -9      -8.60     6.83    -6.35    49.31     7.72   -12.80     0.00     0.02     0.45     0.12P    9.75R    9.75  
Morecambe        19   14  -19      -4.67    21.74    -7.74    40.79     7.25   -34.54     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   51.72R   51.72  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 December 2019, Eastleigh 0 2 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Barrow             23   44  +18       7.12    83.68    10.09    79.63     7.17    24.05    29.45    82.34    41.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            24   41  +11       4.53    72.74     5.76    75.06     7.04    16.78    10.94    61.70    22.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     23   40  +14       1.89    59.91     4.25    77.97     7.12    23.51    21.52    76.67    36.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Yeovil             23   38  +10      -1.85    39.70    -2.43    78.09     7.22    22.89    22.14    76.92    40.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Woking             24   38   +5       6.43    80.21     7.15    67.41     7.02     3.77     1.32    20.46     4.70P    0.54R    0.02  
Halifax            23   38   +4       7.04    84.25     4.62    69.73     6.96     4.44     2.54    30.31     7.87P    0.20R    0.01  
Harrogate_Town     24   37   +3       1.42    57.53    -0.81    69.53     7.08     6.32     2.71    30.25     8.75P    0.27R    0.02  
Stockport          24   35   -6       7.82    85.47     3.15    60.05     6.88   -14.02     0.07     3.36     0.56P    6.56R    0.73  
Boreham_Wood       24   34   +6       0.39    52.40     5.04    65.20     6.87     7.55     0.62    13.42     3.40P    0.91R    0.06  
Torquay            24   34   +1       3.61    68.43     5.74    60.59     7.10    -5.46     0.17     4.68     0.91P    5.71R    0.63  
Notts_County       23   32   +8      -7.73    14.64    -4.34    72.11     7.21    20.97     6.19    47.70    20.30P    0.13R    0.01  
Hartlepool         23   32   +4      -0.04    50.34     3.53    63.85     7.14     4.21     0.51    10.69     2.62P    2.06R    0.18  
Dover_Athletic     22   32   -1       1.25    57.37    -1.67    64.14     7.31    -2.40     0.62    11.28     2.71P    2.22R    0.20  
Eastleigh          23   32   -2       1.62    59.45     0.05    62.44     7.08    -3.88     0.27     7.14     1.54P    3.34R    0.35  
Barnet             23   31   +2      -2.55    36.44    -1.01    64.15     7.12     4.41     0.51    11.28     3.06P    1.72R    0.12  
Dag_&_Red          24   30   -2      -2.44    37.30    -1.28    58.97     6.83    -3.83     0.05     2.45     0.50P    7.58R    0.88  
Maidenhead         24   28   -4      -0.08    50.56     3.58    53.40     6.72   -11.56     0.00     0.36     0.05P   26.98R    5.63  
AFC_Fylde          22   27   -8      -5.16    23.52   -10.88    62.24     7.48    -4.69     0.36     7.46     2.16P    4.50R    0.55  
Aldershot          24   27   -9      -0.04    50.89    -0.35    52.29     6.62   -16.15     0.00     0.17     0.03P   33.49R    7.62  
Sutton_United      23   25   -5      -4.57    26.39    -2.08    54.52     7.02    -7.99     0.00     0.64     0.10P   22.17R    4.44  
Wrexham            24   23   -7     -10.07     7.68    -7.39    54.11     6.72    -5.50     0.00     0.39     0.06P   22.00R    4.54  
Chesterfield       23   23  -12      -7.37    15.26    -9.85    51.81     7.05   -16.62     0.01     0.23     0.05P   36.84R    9.77  
Chorley            24   23  -18       0.58    55.00    -1.87    43.74     6.50   -32.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.94R   52.69  
Ebbsfleet_United   24   22  -12      -9.29    10.23    -8.99    50.93     6.96   -14.40     0.00     0.10     0.03P   40.81R   11.56